Demand Side Response How to value flexibility

Transcription

1 Demand Side Response How to value flexibility Febeliec infosession : 10th June 2013 Geert Meynckens 1

2 About INEOS Global, vertically-integrated chemical company Founded in 98 - rapid growth by acquisitions 40 b$ sales employees 51 manufacturing locations in 11 countries Privately owned 2

3 INEOS sales by business Oxide 4% ABS 3% Oligomers 3% Nitriles 4% Other 7% Refining 25% Styrenics 5% ChlorVinyls 6% Phenol 9% Olefins 15% Olefins & Polymers USA 9% Polyolefins 10%

4 Electricity is a major cost for INEOS operations Total INEOS electricity consumption of about 12 TWh Electricity is main cost driver for Chlor-Alkali business Electricity is a raw material Electricity costs are more important than labour costs Electricity costs determine where to produce and where to invest Chlor-Alkali production costs 21% 18% 61% Fixed Costs Electricity costs Other variable costs 4

5 Overview of the VCM production process Sodiumchloride Pottasiumchloride Ethylene Electricity Electrolysis Chlorine VCM PVC Toluene Caustic Soda Pottasium Hydroxide Benzylchloride Toluene derivatives 5

6 Value of Demand Side Response? Goverment wants to subsidse new power plants Het ontwerp van koninklijk besluit dat nu op de tafel ligt, bepaalt dat die nog op te richten centrales tien jaar lang een jaarlijks steunbedrag van ,1 euro per geïnstalleerde megawatt kunnen ontvangen. 400 MW 13h 1000 MW 100h 6

7 Most important precondition for Demand Side Response : the correct price of electricity I have a yearly fixed priced contract so I am protected against price spikes for 60 /MWh I will not even think about stopping a production process Budget / Contract price => have no relevance All purchased electricity is to be valued at Belpex prices Increased with the variable transport costs + taxes Jaar Kwartaal Maand Week Dayahead uur prijs Intraday Balancing 7

8 Most important condition for Demand Side Response: Correct value of electricity ik heb een jaarprijs en ben beschermd tegen prijspieken voor 60 leg ik geen proces stil Budget / Contract prijs => niet van belang Alle gekochte elektriciteit krijgt de waarde van Belpex Verhoogd met de variable transportkosten + heffingen Jaar Kwartaal Maand Week Dayahead uur prijs Intraday Balancing 8

9 Cooperation between departments is crucial Planning Use contractual framework Manage constraints Time shifting Profit margin calculations Spot prices Operations Procurement Execution Process impact analysis Search for flexibility Awareness at operators 9 Awareness at mgt. Contractual framework Tendering products

10 Different products to capture the DSR value Capacity product Fixed yearly remuneration Engagement: Y-1 Reaction time: x h/m/s Energy product Value of the energy at a given moment Engagement: D-1 or later Reaction time: D-1 or later Elia Interuptibility Aggregators Suppliers Elia R1 Load Belpex bieding Intraday/Balancing Elia : free bids (under construction) 10

11 Main contractual conditions of the Elia interuptibility product Products SLA 2 SLA 4 SLA 8 Max nr. activations Max duration/activation Max duration/year Response time (min) Capacity fee ( /MW) Activation fee Max (75 /MWh ; 108% Belpex) Reference Reserve Power : min. 5 MW Average load (MW) per period Compared ex-post with the actual ref. power Peak Off-peak Weekend Shedding Limit SL Reference Power PRef Reference Reserve Power Rref

12 Elia interuptibility : operational requirements Elia provides a signal Shedding Limit must be reached within 3 min. 87 h unavailability allowed

13 How to react to the spot prices Include spot prices in the contract Fixing can happen via a CfD Sell-back options Transparency on profile & unbalance costs/benefit Aggregators Recent evolution More flexible criteria due to pooling 13

14 DIY: Contractual framework in order to react on the spot prices via Belpex membership Access contract Elia invoice Subscription Bankguarantee Appoint ARP ARP contract Bank guarantee Nominations 24h service Belpex contract Full 12k setup 25k / y 0.10 /MWh fee Escrow Broker 0.5k setup 5k /y 0.1 /MWh fee Broker fee 14

15 /MW Value that can be captured by reacting on belpex prices _4 2012_1 2007_4 2007_ jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec 15

16 MW /MWh Value that can be captured by reacting on belpex prices: scenario A very flexible 2 90,00 80,00 70,00 60, ,00 40,00 30,00 profiled 1h baseload price 20,00 10, Hour 0,00 16

17 MW /MWh Value that can be captured by reacting on belpex prices: scenario B semi flexible 2 90,00 80,00 70,00 60, ,00 40,00 30,00 baseload profiled 4h price 20,00 10, Hour 0,00 17

18 /MW Value that can be captured by reacting on belpex prices _4 2012_1 2007_4 2007_ jan feb mrt apr mei jun jul aug sep okt nov dec 18

19 Also the balancing market offers opportunities 150,00 100,00 50,00 0,00 01/04/ /04/ /04/ /04/ ,00-100,00 Imbalance Negative Price ( /MWh) BELPEX Hourly Price 19

20 More information Autumn School : October 2013 Basic balancing training Commercial actors: aggregators/suppliers 20

21 Questions? 21