Whatis risk is thisriskyfor you? Doyouknowit?

Transcription

1 Whatis risk is thisriskyfor you? Doyouknowit?

2 Oil risk analysis for the Gulf of Finland: current approaches and future challenges Sakari Kuikka & Fem group Head of Fisheries and Environmental Management group (FEM), Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland, STECF member(eu main advisorybody) Focal point of International Ocean Institute in Finland All photos and videos by Sakke Kuikka

3 Outlineof the talk 1) Whatis risk? 2) Oilrelatedscience in Finland and elsewhere: a bibliographicanalysis 3) Conclusion: whatnext?

4 Therearemanyusesfor the BalticSea!

5 Risk.. Dependson how muchyoucan can control itand learn fromit.. Usualquestion: Is the likely benefit more worthy than the very unlikelyloss? Your risk estimate depends on how much you know Or Whether you trustthe adviser?

6 The needto makedecisionsto avoid.. unseen catastrophes for which there is no data and wenevereverwantto getit

7 SpillMod results Probabilistic maps with grids of 2*2 km Picture is from SÖKÖ project Probability to become oiled for each cell is calculated given the place of accident, type of oil, season (weather stats during last 10 years), spill size, duration of the spill and the drifting time

8 Makingbiodiversitydata as an operationaltoolfor firemen

9 Sources of uncertainty Probability Implementation Parameters Model Natural ,35 Predicted SSB 0,3 0,25 Prob. Density 0,2 0,15 0,1 0, Biomass By Samu Mäntyniemi, FEM

10 Modeling of oil spills: impacts that cannot be seen or measured Wedonotwantto seethe data providing overall damage estimates Evenin a studiedaccident, weneversee allimpacts, Weshouldbeawareof themand somehowmodel/estimatethemto help and convince people For models we need all knowledge from fieldsurveys, experts, publications, laboratory experiments, closeby cases

11 Yes, but.. How to modelthe futurewedon twantto see? Compareto the nuclearpowerriskanalysisand standards? Whydon twejust learnfrommodelsand act accordingly? WhyEU legislationpackagescarrythe namesof the oil spill disasters?

12 PROBAPS project: Cost-benefit model of preventive actions versus oil combating Finland just bought the eighteenth new oil compatting vessel Itis niceto bea commanderfor such a fleet Butdoesitmakesensefor taxpayers to havemorevessels? -50 % of costsarepaidbyfinnishoil industry..

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14 Whichviewis more handsomeormore beautifull? Dependingon x/y chromosome?

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16 3) Concludingslides: learningin science and betweenthe areas?

17 Initial knowledge Pre-defined interpretation of evidence Study 1 Accumulation of knowledge Updated evidence Initial knowledge Updated evidence Initial knowledge Updated evidence New evidence Pre-defined interpretation of evidence New evidence Pre-defined interpretation of evidence New evidence Study 2 Study 3

18 Oil spill research A bibliometric study Prabir Dastidar Sakari Kuikka Olle Persson

19 This is the best growth curve since it controls for the fact that abstracts were introduced around 1994 and we only count genuine articles, thus excluding proceedings papers and other doc types. 160 Growth of oil spill articles Note: Oil spill in titles of genuine articles N of articles Publication year

20 by country. should correlate with oil production, oil tankers or oil spill locations Country N of papers Citations Mean citations USA Canada Spain UK Peoples R China France Norway Italy Brazil Germany Japan Australia South Korea India Russia Nigeria Greece Portugal Kuwait Netherlands Saudi Arabia Denmark Egypt Sweden Finland South Africa Turkey

21 Oil spill research by city Click this zoomable Google map:

22 Country collaboration map

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24 An observeris neededto studythe mostriskyskippers: wheredowegetthe data or knowledgefor the riskyoutliers?

25 I wantto acknowledge The Baltic Sea And FEM groupin UH For good motivation!