ETF Portfolio Solutions Core Diversified ETF Model December quarter 2013
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1 ETF Portfolio Solutions ETF Model December quarter 2013 PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS Portfolio Objective The broad investment objective of the ETF Model is to offer financial advisers an ETF-based investment portfolio which aims to achieve a return that is 3.5% above inflation over rolling 3-year periods (before fees and expenses). We only use ASX-listed ETFs in our portfolios. Portfolio Performance The model portfolio outperformed its market benchmark by 0.28% reflecting the tactical asset allocation tilts taken over the December 2013 quarter relative to the strategy asset allocation benchmark - specifically the tilt towards credit. Features and Benefits Quality Professionally constructed and managed Transparent See and know what you own Liquid Easy to buy and sell Low cost Get more of your money working harder Diversified Manage the ups and downs better Simple Easy administration/ less paperwork, less hassle Tax efficient Low turnover portfolio Asset Class Allocations 3 months Dec quarter Since Inception 3 Model Portfolio performance (Gross) Model Portfolio performance (Net) Benchmark performance Value-add (relative to Gross performance) % 38.68% 36.86% 10.04% 4.78% 1. Net of management fees but gross of tax. Management fees have been de-annualised to generate a quarterly management fee. 2. Net management fees but gross of tax. 3. Inception date is 1 July Attribution (3 months Dec quarter) Tactical Allocation Effect Asset Allocation Effect *Actual asset class allocations are indicative as at the end of Decmber 2013 Asset Class Performance Strategic/ Benchmark Allocation Asset Class Performance Aust Shares Total: Performance reflects the performance of the asset class for the 3 months to the end of December Further information on the respective indices is available upon request. The portfolio currently holds 9 ETFs.
2 ETF Portfolio Solutions (ex Australian shares) ETF Model December quarter 2013 PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS Portfolio Objective The investment objective of the (ex Australian shares) ETF Model is to offer financial advisers an ETF-based investment portfolio which aims to achieve a return that is 3.5% above inflation over rolling 3-year periods (before fees and expenses). The Model does not includes any exposure to Australian shares and has been constructed to be blended with an Australia shares exposure (direct equity or managed funds). Portfolio Performance The model portfolio has outperformed its market benchmark by 0.21% is primarily driven by tactical allocation tilts in fixed interest, specifically the tilt towards credit and the allocation to the ETF which generates a risk free carry due to the market structure. 3 months Dec quarter Since Inception 3 Model Portfolio performance (Gross) Model Portfolio performance (Net) Benchmark performance Value-add (relative to Gross performance) Net of management fees but gross of tax. Management fees have been de-annualised to generate a quarterly management fee. 2. Net management fees but gross of tax. 3. Inception date is 1 July Attribution (3 months Dec quarter) Features and Benefits Quality Transparent Liquid Low cost Diversified Simple Tax efficient Professionally constructed and managed See and know what you own Easy to buy and sell Get more of your money working harder Manage the ups and downs better Easy administration/ less paperwork, less hassle Low turnover portfolio Asset Class Allocations 7.57% 15.91% 15.25% Asset Class Performance Strategic/ Benchmark Allocation Asset Class Performance Aust Shares N/A N/A Total: Performance reflects the performance of the asset class for the 3 months to the end of December Further information on the respective indices is available upon request. The portfolio currently holds 8 ETFs % *Actual asset class allocations are indicative as at the end of December 2013 * The portfolio has been constructed to be blended with an Australian shares exposure (direct equity portfolio or managed fund). Tactical Allocation Effect Asset Allocation Effect
3 ETF Portfolio Solutions Plus ETF Model December quarter 2013 PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS Portfolio Objective The investment objective of the Plus ETF Model is to offer financial advisers an ETF-based investment portfolio which aims to achieve a return that is 4.5% above inflation over rolling 5 year periods before fees and expenses. We only use ASX-listed ETFs in our portfolios. Portfolio Performance The model portfolio outperformed its market benchmark by 0.08% reflecting the tactical asset allocation tilts taken over the September 2013 quarter relative to the strategy asset allocation benchmark - specifically the tilt towards credit. 3 months Dec quarter Since Inception 3 Model Portfolio performance (Gross) Model Portfolio performance (Net) Benchmark performance Value-add (relative to Gross performance) Features and Benefits Quality Transparent Liquid Low cost Diversified Simple Tax efficient Professionally constructed and managed See and know what you own Easy to buy and sell Get more of your money working harder Manage the ups and downs better Easy administration/ less paperwork, less hassle Low turnover portfolio Asset Class Allocations 19.11% 9.45% 4.77% 19.84% 46.83% 1. Net of management fees but gross of tax. Management fees have been de-annualised to generate a quarterly management fee. 2. Net management fees but gross of tax. 3. Inception date is 1 July *Actual asset class allocations are indicative as at the end of December 2013 Attribution (3 months Dec quarter) Tactical Allocation Effect Asset Allocation Effect Asset Class Performance Strategic/ Benchmark Allocation Asset Class Performance Aust Shares Total: Performance reflects the performance of the asset class for the 3 months to the end of December Further information on the respective indices is available upon request. The portfolio currently holds 9 ETFs.
4 Investment Commentary/ Market Review December Quarter 2013 Investment Commentary/ Market Review Australian shares rose 3.4% during the quarter. Most sectors had positive performance with the exception of Energy (-3.1%), AREITs (-1.4%) and Utilities (-0.6%). Primary contributors to performance over the quarter were Telecommunication Services (5.7%), Health Care (5.4%) and Financials ex-areit sector (5.1%). Trailing P/E Ratio is currently at 16.8x, above the 10-year average of 14.5x indicating the share market is overvalued on a historical basis. VIX of 11.6 indicates market volatility is low. International shares on an unhedged basis returned 13.2% compared to international shares on a hedged basis which returned 8.6%. The difference in returns was driven by the weakening of the Australian dollar relative to other developed market currencies. The index finished trading at a Trailing P/E Ratio of 18.0x. Emerging market shares returned 6.4% during the quarter primarily due to the weakening Australian dollar. Emerging market shares in local terms returned 3.0% over the quarter. The index finished trading at a P/E Ratio of 12.1x, below the 10-year average of 13.8x, indicating the share market is undervalued on a historical basis. Australian listed property fell 1.5% during the quarter. The sector ended trading approximately 18.4% premium to Net Tangible Assets with yield at 5.6%. Gearing at the aggregate level was at 32.3%. G-REITs on an unhedged basis rose 4.4%% during the quarter while on a hedged basis, returned 1.4%, following the weakening of the Australian dollar. Australian direct property posted a return of 2.0% over the three months to November. Capitalisation rates have remained steady for the past 12 months in the range of 6.8% - 8.5%. Australian fixed interest returned 0.4% over the quarter driven by accrued interest and marginal fall in the weighted-average interest rate of government securities. Yield-to-Maturity for the market is 3.6% International fixed interest returned 0.7% for the quarter, while the unhedged index returned 3.4%. Contributors to the performance differential were currency movements and the interest rate carry from the currency hedge. Yield-to-maturity for the market is 1.6%. Australian Economy Over the December quarter, no changes to the RBA Rate was made (RBA Rate: 2.5%), citing global growth and the Australian economy growing at slightly below average. GDP growth was 0.6% for the quarter, and 2.3% for the year to September 2013, consistent with below trend expectations. Falling AUD since the highpoint in mid-august is expected to improve prospects of growth in the Australian economy. Terms of Trade registered a fall of 0.9% over the September quarter and is expected to continue falling; driven by falling commodity prices. Unemployment edged higher with increases in the average work hours by full-time employees as the Australian economy continues improving its productivity. No material changes to the business and consumer confidence was observed with expectations of moderate credit growth over the short-term. Historically low interest rates continue to be supportive of asset prices. No cuts to the RBA Rate are expected in the near-term. Global Economy The IMF has revised upwards their forward projections of world output citing market confidence in the global recovery and the outlook for the US. Current projections for 2013 and 2014 are 2.9% and 3.6% respectively. No material impact to business confidence over the quarter was observed following the 16 day US government shut-down. Decline in the US unemployment rate and improvements in household spending and business fixed investment were observed since the October Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. At the December Fed meeting, a decision was made to reduce the pace of quantitative Easing. China s 2013 GDP is estimated to be at 7.6%, in-line with the target of 7.5% set at the beginning of the year. Manufacturing data as reported by the HSBC Manufacturing PMI was 50.8 (50 indicates no change) while Services PMI was 51.2 (50 indicates no change) indicating improvements in the economy. China s banks wrote-off approximately $3.7 billion of debt in the first half of The People s Bank of China restricted market liquidity over the December quarter in an effort to reduce risky lending practices by financial institutions. Liquidity conditions remain tight with short-term interest rates at 6.43%. Risk of deflation remains in Europe with reported inflation at 0.1% for the September quarter. Bank lending remains an issue with low growth in velocity of money observed (M3: 2.3% and M1: 6.3% annualised).
5 Performance Review December Quarter 2013 A summary of investment performance review is provided below. ETF Model Portfolios Model Portfolios (50/50) model (ex Aust shares) Plus (75/25) Outperform its Market-weighted Benchmark (Gross Performance rel. to Market) Outperform its Investment Objectives (Net Performance rel. to CPI+ Target) Asset allocation performance analysis by strategy (50/50) portfolio Attribution indicates the outperformance of 0.28% is primarily driven by the following: Asset Allocation contributed 0.06% of outperformance Unintended asset allocation positioning has resulted in a positive benchmark outperformance. This is due to no rebalancing of the model portfolio since the September quarter. Tactical Allocation contributed 0.22% of outperformance contributed 0.10% reflecting the currency tilt taken over the December 2013 quarter. contributed 0.09% reflecting the sub-sector tilt to credit. Currency contributed 0.03% reflecting carry within the underlying ETF structure. Our regular investment review conducted over the December 2013 quarter indicates the following: Performance of the Model Portfolios remain satisfactory and in line with objectives and metrics: Tactical allocation tilts, primarily in fixed interest (overweight credit) and global shares (75% unhedged global shares position) contributed to performance. Unintended Asset Allocation tilts contributed to performance. Currency positioning (25% hedged) remains appropriate. Assessment of Small-capitalisation equities (relative to the broad market) provides potential for upside: Assessment of market sub-sector indicates the small industrials sector is undervalued relative to their largecapitalisation peers. Financials (specifically banks) do not provide a strong relative value and are expected to track the broad index benchmark. Implementation of the Small-cap allocation is discussed in the section below. No change to the current recommended list of ETFs. We propose implementing an allocation to Australian small-cap equities from Australian large cap equities from end of January (ex Aust shares) portfolio Attribution indicates the outperformance of 0.39% is primarily driven by the following: Asset Allocation contributed 0.05% of outperformance Unintended asset allocation positioning has resulted in a positive benchmark outperformance. This is due to no rebalancing of the model portfolio since the September quarter. Tactical Allocation contributed 0.34% of outperformance contributed 0.16% reflecting the currency tilt taken over the December 2013 quarter. contributed 0.14% reflecting the sub-sector tilt to credit. Currency contributed 0.04% reflecting carry within the underlying ETF structure Plus (75/25) portfolio Attribution indicates the outperformance of 0.26% is primarily driven by the following: Asset Allocation contributed 0.05% of outperformance Unintended asset allocation positioning has resulted in a positive benchmark outperformance. This is due to no rebalancing of the model portfolio since the September quarter. Tactical Allocation contributed 0.21% of outperformance contributed 0.15% reflecting the currency tilt taken over the December 2013 quarter. contributed 0.04% reflecting the sub-sector tilt to credit Currency contributed 0.01% reflecting carry within the underlying ETF structure.
6 Portfolio Positioning A review of the Australian equity sector has been undertaken, providing a relative value assessment of small-capitalisation stocks relative to the broad market benchmark. Our assessment indicates in the current market environment, small-capitalisation stocks provide better upside potential relative to the broad market index; specifically, the small industrials sub-sector of the S&P ASX Small Ordinaries Index. It is expected that small-capitalisation stocks will outperform the broad market benchmark. Outperformance is expected to be derived from small industrials sectors. A tactical asset allocation tilt to small-capitalisation stocks has been taken for the and Plus model portfolios. Key highlights and update Key Highlights Recommendation: Investment Objectives: Policy Asset Allocation: Administrative Asset Allocation: Fee Assessment: Commentary Introduce and implement an asset allocation tilt in favour of Australian small capitalisation stocks to be funded by reduction in broad Australian equities. Investment objectives remain suitable. Assessment of the suitability of the investment objectives is scheduled for June Asset allocations across all model portfolios are in-line with the policy asset allocation. No administrative asset allocation ranges have been breached as at December No rebalancing of the portfolios is required. Investment management fees are marginally higher following recommendation and implementation of an Australian small-cap exposure. Investment management fees remain appropriate.
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