DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DRIVE DEMAND FOR SELF-STORAGE SPACE IN ASIA CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH

Transcription

1 DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES DRIVE DEMAND FOR SELF-STORAGE SPACE IN ASIA CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH

2 CONTENTS

3 CBRE GLOBAL RESEARCH

4 4 Self-storage poised for growth in Asia

5 What is self-storage? Market evolution Asia is 20 years behind the U.S. Figure 1: Self-storage development cycle Development Introduction Growth Maturity US UK EU Rest of Asia Tokyo/HK SG Source: CBRE Estimates, May

6 The four D s and business activity Figure 2: Self-storage demand drivers Self-Storage Demand Drivers Death Divorce Density Dislocation Business activity Source: CBRE Research, Public Storage Annual Report,

7 Figure 3: Demand driver - death Population Aged 65+ (% of total) Deaths (% of total population) Source: CEIC, Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department, Feb Japan Statistical Bureau, Jan Singapore Department of Statistics, Sep Source: CEIC, US Census Bureau, Mar Figure 4: Demand driver - divorce Divorces (Index, 1996 = 100) Source: CEIC, Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department, Nov Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Apr Singapore Department of Statistics, Apr

8 Figure 5: Demand driver - dislocation Source: CEIC, Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department, Nov World Bank, Dec Singapore Department of Statistics, Mar Source: CEIC, Hong Kong Census & Statistics Department, Apr Japan Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare, Apr Singapore Department of Statistics, Mar

9 Figure 6: Demand driver - density Household space per person (sq. ft.) Hong Kong (167) Singapore (247) Tokyo (329) Europe (357) United Kingdom (402) Australia (853) United States (980) Source: CBRE Research, Various country government statistical agencies1. 1 Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, Statistics Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Singapore Department of Statistics, Demographia, Japan Property Central, Eurostat, Australia Institute of Family Studies, US Census Bureau,

10 Figure 7: Demand driver business activity Source: CBRE Research, Q

11 Tokyo and Hong Kong have more competition Figure 8: Supply statistics Source: CBRE Research, Q Quraz,

12 Concentrated market, open for new entrants Figure 9: Self-storage market share (rentable sq. ft.) Hong Kong Tokyo 35% 50% 50% 65% Top 5 Others US Singapore 14% 13% 86% 87% Source: CBRE Estimates, Q Company annual reports, Quraz,

13 Huge shortfall to match US self-storage saturation Figure 10: Self-storage space per household (rentable sq. ft.) Source: CBRE Research, Various listed self storage REIT annual reports 3. Quraz, Self Storage Association Asia, Figure 11a: Potential additional* self-storage space needed (rentable sq. ft.) Optimistic 27.9 mn sq ft *Using New York as a proxy for self storage space needed 12.3 mn sq ft 5.5 mn sq ft Source: CBRE, 2015 Oxford Economics,, Mar 2015 Self Storage Association, Assuming Asia self-storage reaches saturation levels of New York. [(New York saturation current Asia saturation) * Asia population] 3 Public Storage, CubeSmart, UncleBob s,

14 Shortage of 2.2 to 3.9 million sq. ft. of self-storage space Figure 11b: Potential additional** self-storage space needed (rentable sq. ft.) Base 2.2 mn sq ft **Using US self-storage per capita growth rate 3.9 mn sq ft 2.4 mn sq ft Source: CBRE, 2015 Oxford Economics,, Mar 2015 Self Storage Association, Figure 11c: Potential additional*** self-storage space needed (rentable sq. ft.) Minimum sq ft ***Using population growth over next decade sq ft sq ft Source: CBRE, 2015 Oxford Economics,, Mar 2015 Self Storage Association,

15 16% of APAC investors have or are interested in self-storage Figure 12: Most preferred alternative investment sector Source: CBRE Asia Pacific Investor Intentions Survey

16 Operators and investors are seeking established facilities Figure 13: Recent major self-storage investment deals CapitaLand purchases Big Orange Evergreen purchases Quraz SingPost purchases Storehouse Blackstone purchases MiniCo Country Singapore Country Japan Country Hong Kong Country Hong Kong Buyer StorHub (CapitaLand) Buyer Evergreen Real Estate Partners LLC Buyer General Storage Company Pte (Singapore Post) Buyer Blackstone Buyer Type Property Company Buyer Type Real estate investment company Buyer Type Self storage operator Buyer Type Real estate investment company Price SGD 91.8 million Loan size JPY 20 billion Price SGD million Price HKD 420 million (approximate) Date July 2013 Date September 2013 Date July 2014 Date March 2015 Source: CBRE Research,

17 Healthy rental uplift from self-storage conversion Figure 14: Self Storage rates vs other asset classes Rents (US$ per sq. ft. pm) Source: CBRE Research, Q Source: Quraz, 2015 Source: CBRE Research, Q

18 Double digit returns from self-storage investment Figure 15: Potential investment returns from self-storage conversions City IRR Sub-leasing IRR Buying Hong Kong 23.0% 15.2% Tokyo 26.0% 17.4% Singapore 30.4% 15.0% Source: CBRE Estimates, Assumptions: 90% of average asking rental revenue, 90% stabilized occupancy, 10 year investment period, 4-5% rental growth/year, 4 years to stabilize occupancy, 30% LTV, 55-70% efficiency. Assuming one can lease the same unit over the 10 year period (with 10-15% underlying rental increase per lease-term) & 100% equity. 4 Sub-leasing refers to the self-storage operator not owning the underlying property and instead leases the premises for self-storage operations. 18

19 Key risks: Awareness, availability and short lease terms 19

20 Self-storage primed to spread to other Asian cities Figure 16: Future destinations for self-storage Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen Taipei Manila Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Driver Ageing Population (death) Divorce Urbanisation (density) Marriage (dislocation) Students (dislocation) Office Expansion Shanghai Beijing Shenzhen Taipei Manila Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Source: CBRE, Strength of demand driver 20

21 Strong demand, more expansion and rising investment 21

22 RESEARCH BROKERAGE PRINTED ON RECYCLED PAPER