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1 Commoditis Commoditis: Dily Focus: Ld tightss hr to sty? 4 Novmbr Focus: Tightss i ld s rby forwrd structur cotius to b ftur of th mrkt, choig th lst rooucd riod of tightss i th Csh-3m srd tht mrgd i tmbr d Octobr lst yr. Th currt tightss coms is i sit of 3% icrs i hdli ivtory (roud 79 kt) sic mid Octobr. Th bs mtls comlx hs b firly uisird, with iitil rlly, hld by firmr Chis quitis, quickly trig out hd of U trd followig wk Euro dt. Volums hv b similrly subdud with th mrkt trdig wtr. Th mrkt is ow focusd o th fiscl cliff i th U d th o-goig crisis i th Eurozo, ithr of which look likly to b rsolvd quickly. Agist tht sort of bckgroud, currcis d quity mrkts cotiu to hold swy ovr ric dirctio. trtgists Wltr d Wt, CFA* Wltr.DWt@stdrdbk.com Lo Wstgt* Lo.Wstgt@stdrdbk.com rc Groud, CFA* rc.groud@stdrdbk.co.z Thr hs b ric ctio i PGs sic ystrdy. Plldium rllid from blow $6 to $65 this morig, brkig through strog rsistc roud $635. Pltium rllid from $,555 to $,6 this morig. Crud oil mrkts cotiud thir dowwrd trd strtd o ody, lthough this tim it ws Brt which ws hrdr hit. Brt dd th dy 8c/bbl lowr to clos t $8.6/bbl ystrdy. WTI closd t $85.38/bbl, loss for th dy of 9c/bbl. Th diffrc i movs of th two bchmrks sw th srd btw thm rrow from th rvious dy s -moth closig ric high of $3.5/bbl to $.88/bbl. Commodity ric dt (3 Novmbr ) Bs mtls LE 3-moth O Clos High Low Dily chg Chg (%) Csh ttl Chg i csh sttl Csh - 3m Alumiium,968,985,989, %, Cor 7,6 7,68 7,75 7, % 7, Ld,59,5,6, %, Nickl 6,3 6,5 6,5 5,85.% 5, Ti,45,4,45, %, Zic,93,935,939,89.6%, Ergy O Clos High Low dy/dy Chg (%) ICE Brt % NYEX WTI % ICE Gsoil % API Q' % A Fix P Fix High bid Low offr Closig bid Chg (d/d) EFP's Gold,74.75,76.5,733.,78.7, /+. ilvr /+. Pltium,578.,585.,585.,56., /3.5 Plldium /. ourcs: tdrd Bk; LE; BBG Pls rfr to th disclimr t th d of this documt.

2 Commoditis Dily 4 Novmbr Focus: Ld tightss hr to sty? Tightss i ld s rby forwrd structur cotius to b ftur of th mrkt, choig th lst rooucd riod of tightss i th Csh-3m srd tht mrgd i tmbr d Octobr lst yr. Th currt tightss coms is i sit of 3% icrs i hdli ivtory (roud 79 kt) sic mid Octobr. Lookig t LE ivtory, hdli stocks r mor or lss roud th sm lvl durig tht August-tmbr riod i, s th lst isod of sigifict tightss mrgd. Hdli stocks r som 57 kt lowr th th rct highs s i Fbrury this yr, though historiclly skig thy still rmi budt. Wht is diffrt is tht th rgiol slit of ld ivtory hs chgd mrkdly (s fig. ). North Amric d Asi hv both s dcliig ivtoris, whil hdli stocks i Euro hv icrsd substtilly. Lookig t o-wrrt stocks, th dclis i Asi d th U i rticulr hv b v mor drmtic ftr st of wrrt cclltio ctivity. As fr s th Euro stock iflows r cocrd, of th t 9 kt icrs i Euro LE wrhous ivtoris s sic th middl of Octobr, lmost ll of tht hs occurrd i Atwr, whr stocks hv icrsd 96.3 kt (kig t 5. kt) sic Octobr 9th. Giv th jum i cclld wrrts t tht loctio, howvr (both ld d zic), it is dbtbl how rdily vilbl thos uits r, owig to wrhous dls d xit quus. LE Rgiol Ld Ivtory ourcs: LE; tdrd Bk; LE Ld Csh-3m srd (icludig gric moth slit) c D r c D r U o wrt U cx wrt Asi o wrt Asi cx wrt Euro o wrt Euro cx wrt Lookig t how th ld forwrd structur hs bhvd i th st, rvious isods of tightss hv b firly rotrctd. Usig gric mothly brkdows, fig. ttmts to show visully whr th currt tightss rsids (currtly Nov-Dc which i this chrt is cturd by -). Giv hlthy lvls of ivtory, i th st rticits sm to hv witd for tightss to s, bfor gttig cught out s th tightss rsistd d movd closr to csh. It would b sy to ssum th tightss will gi dissit this tim, owig to icrsd LE stocks, d rhs lso du th ho tht yr-d ldig ctivity might rmrg. Tht sid howvr, hysicl rmi suggst tht th mrkt is idd tightr th o-wrrt ivtoris would suggst. Cosqutly ld my wll b hdig for rt of th xtdd tightss s durig lt lst yr. 4 6 v o N J r 3 Csh y l ourcs: LE; tdrd Bk; v o N J r y l LE Pm Csh 3m srd 4 6 v o N By Lo Wstgt Bs mtls Th bs mtls comlx hs b firly uisird, with iitil rlly, hld by firmr Chis quitis, quickly trig out hd of U trd followig wk Euro dt. Volums hv b similrly subdud with th mrkt trdig wtr. Th mrkt is ow focusd o th fiscl cliff i th U d th o-goig crisis i th Eurozo, ithr of which look likly to b rsolvd quickly. Agist tht sort of bckgroud, currcis d quity mrkts cotiu to hold swy ovr ric dirctio. Wkr th xctd Eurozo idustril roductio hld to blut th iitil rlly i bs mtls with outut fllig.5% from August, th worst rsult i ovr 3 yrs. Excttios hd b for % fll. Th rct ru of oor dt suggsts tht th coomic roscts for th Euro coutris cotius to look rthr blk. Cor rllid strogly ystrdy ftroo, hld by rcovry i th U quity mrkts d rboud i th Euro. Cor brifly trdd bck towrds $7,7 this morig, bfor driftig off gi hdig ito th ftroo. Alumiium hs lso com bck udr rssur ftr iitil surg, though th mtl hs cotiud to hold u wll d is i th rocss of cosolidtig ftr brkig bck bov its -dy A o ody. By Lo Wstgt Commoditis

3 Commoditis Dily 4 Novmbr Prcious mtls Thr hs b ric ctio i PGs sic ystrdy. Plldium rllid from blow $6 to $65 this morig, brkig through strog rsistc roud $635. Pltium rllid from $,555 to $,6 this morig. Th rlly strtd ftr Johso tthy rlsd thir itrim rviw for ystrdy. Thy forcst dficit of 4Koz for ltium, 95Koz for lldium d 43Koz for rhodium i. This comrs to our dficit forcsts of 355Koz for ltium, 94Koz for lldium d 34Koz for rhodium (s our Commoditis Qurtrly dtd Octobr ). W bliv tht mrkt hs widly b discoutig dficit mrkt for ltium, lldium d rhodium wll bfor th J rls ystrdy d, s rsult, w would xct th ric rlly to fd. W ot tht th scultiv mrkt rmis vry log ltium (lss so for lldium). Th ltst CFTC dt idicts tht scultiv lgth s rctg of o itrst is currtly t 56.5% (6.% rviously) comrd to 5-yr vrg of 5.8%. Plldium s scultiv lgth is t 38.9%, comrd to 5-yr vrg of 47.5%. Th ltst rlly would hv ddd v mor scultiv lgth to mrkt whr strog rl dmd rmis bst. Our viw o ltium rmis uchgd w would look for vlu blow $,55. Plldium rovids vlu o roch of $6. Gold suort is t $,7 d $,75. Rsistc is $,73 d $,739. ilvr suort is t $3.4 d $3.8, rsistc is t $3.96 d $33.3. Pltium suort is t $,55 d $,53, rsistc is t $,59 d $,6. Plldium suort is t $635 d rsistc t $65. By Wltr d Wt Ergy Crud oil mrkts cotiud thir dowwrd trd strtd o ody, lthough this tim it ws Brt which ws hrdr hit. Brt dd th dy 8c/bbl lowr to clos t $8.6/bbl ystrdy. WTI closd t $85.38/bbl, loss for th dy of 9c/bbl. Th diffrc i movs of th two bchmrks sw th srd btw thm rrow from th rvious dy s -moth closig ric high of $3.5/bbl to $.88/bbl. Th dowwrd bis to th oil ric is lrgly du to cotiud r-mhsis of mrkt tht is wll-sulid mid ucrti dmd outlook. This hs b th thsis of th rct rlss of th ul EIA, IEA d OPEC rgy outlook rorts. As usul, th mrkt will b lookig to idictios of U suly d dmd i this wk s API d DOE ivtory umbrs. Both rlss hv b dlyd by dy du to th Fdrl Holidy o ody. W r lso k to s th DOE umbrs, s w highlightd lst wk (s Commoditis Dily dtd 8 Novmbr) bcus thy should giv clrr idictio of th imct Hurric dy d th ftrmth of th storm hs hd o roduct d crud oil dmd. This could xcrbt lrdy wk dmd sid ictur, with imlid crud oil dmd lrdy showig sigs of wkss d crud oil ivtoris lso uusully high lcig cotiud drg o WTI rics. By rc Groud Commoditis 3

4 Commoditis Dily 4 Novmbr Bs mtls Dily LE tock ovmt (mt) tl Tody Ystrdy I Out O dy chg YTD chg (mt) Cclld wrrts (mt) Cclld wrrts (%) Cotrct turovr Alumiium 5,,65 5,5,8 3, 7,75-4,75 3,5,84, ,846 Cor 54,35 45,5 9,3 45 8,85-6,55 39, 5.4 9,679 Ld 37,95 33,5 3,75-3,75-5,5, ,53 Nickl 33,4 9,79 3, ,3 43,56 3, ,58 Ti,485, , ,46 Zic,55,35,58,35 3, -3, 333,65 559, ,878 hghi 3-moth forwrd rics COEX ctiv moth futur rics tl O Lst d Chg O Clos Chg Chg (%) Alumiium 5,35 5,3 Ali Dc' Cor 55,85 55,9 7 Cu Dc' % Zic 4,995 4,98 35 ZAR mtl rics Alumiium Cor Ld Nickl Ti Zic ZAR/UD fix Csh 7,88 66,86 9,7 39,849 79,4 6, moth 7,689 68,44 9,69 43,3 8,795 7, Ergy Ergy futurs ricig Pric Chg Pric Chg Pric Chg Pric Chg Pric Chg moth moth 3 moth 6 moth yr ig Gsoil ($/bbbl) Gsoil.% Rdm ($/mt) NWE CIF jt ($/mt), igor Kro ($/bbl) % Rdm brgs ($/mt) % Ful Oil FOB ($/mt) ig FO8 Crgo ($/mt) Thrml col Q- Q-3 Q3-3 Cl 3 Cl 4 API (CIF ARA) API4 (FOB RBCT) Prcious mtls Forwrds (%) moth moths 3 moths 6 moths moths Gold ilvr UD Libor Tchicl Idictors 3-dy RI -dy A -dy A -dy A -dy A uort Rsistc Gold 5.5,75.48,75.95,679.,66.78,7.,73. ilvr Pltium 5.5,559.65,568.34,534.86,548.93,55.,59. Plldium Activ oth Futur COEX GLD COEX LV NYEX PAL NYEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCO GLD CBOT GLD Dc' Dc' J'3 J'3 Dc' Oct'3 Dc' ttlmt, ,586.4,77.6 4,43.,74.8 O Itrst 458,383 4,396,83 6,443,46 5, Chg i O Itrst -3, ourcs: tdrd Bk; LE; Bloombrg 4 Commoditis

5 Commoditis Dily 4 Novmbr Bulks Prctg chg Ltst Pric tl Physicl -dy -wk -moth 3-moth 6-moth -yr Turkish cr 8: (Iskidru CFR) $/t 4.77.%.8%.% -3.6% -9.88% - Chi Tgsh tl Billt $/t 55..%.78%.%.78% -.8% -7.34% Chi HRC xort (hghi FOB) $/t 53.5.%.% 3.4% -6.7% -7.% -8.7% North Euro HRC domstic (x-works) $/t 45..% -.% -6.74% -.% -5.89% - North Amric HRC domstic (idwst FOB) $/t 64..% 4.9% 7.79% -3.3% -5.54%.% tl Futurs LE Billt Csh $/t 35..%.6% -8.3% -5.7% -9.73% -4.% LE Billt Futurs (-mth) $/t 35..%.6% -8.3% -5.7% -9.73% -4.% LE tl Billt tocks chg hghi Rbr Futurs (-mth) $/t 6.9.4%.73%.44% 6.4% -8.7% -4.65% hghi Rbr Futurs O-Wrrt tocks chg, Iro or Chi Iro Or Fis (6% F; CFR Tiji) $/t.3.%.58% 8.3% 7.94% -.53% -.57% Chi Iro Or Fis (58% F; CFR Tiji) $/t.7.%.% 7.4% 7.6% -4.6% -6.3% GX AsiClr IO ws 6% F $/t (-mth).75.%.6% 9.85% 7.6% -.% -9.94% Chi Iro Or Ivtory (, tos) 85..% -.37% -3.59% -.% -.66% -.5% Cokig col Prmium Hrd Cokig Col (Qld FOB) $/t 53..%.% -.9% -.54% -8.5% - Csiz fright Tubro Brzil-Bilu Chi (C3).44.%.%.%.%.% -.69% Pilbr Austrli-Qigdo Chi (C5) 9.5.% -4.5% 5.56% 39.7% 5.83% -5.56% ldh outh Afric-Bilu Chi 6..% -4.48%.89% 6.98% 9.% -8.6% Tubro Brzil to Rottrdm Euro.5.% -.87% 6.8% 38.%.93% -3.33% ldh outh Afric-Rottrdm Euro 9.8.% -.5%.99% 59.35% 36.% -.% ourcs: tdrd Bk; LE; Bloombrg Commoditis 5

6 Commoditis Dily 4 Novmbr Disclosurs Crtifictio Th lyst(s) who rrd this rsrch rort (dotd by strisk*) hrby crtifis(y) tht: (i) ll of th viws d oiios xrssd i this rsrch rort ccurtly rflct th rsrch lyst's(s') rsol viws bout th subjct ivstmt(s) d issur(s) d (ii) o rt of th lyst s(s ) comstio ws, is or will b dirctly or idirctly rltd to th scific rcommdtios or viws xrssd by th lyst(s) i this rsrch rort. Coflict of Itrst It is th olicy of Th tdrd Bk Grou Limitd d its worldwid ffilits d subsidiris (togthr th tdrd Bk Grou ) tht rsrch lysts my ot b ivolvd i ctivitis i wy tht suggsts tht h or sh is rrstig th itrsts of y mmbr of th tdrd Bk Grou or its clits if this is rsobly likly to r to b icosistt with rovidig iddt ivstmt rsrch. I dditio rsrch lysts rortig lis r structurd so s to void y coflict of itrsts. For xml, rsrch lysts cot b subjct to th survisio or cotrol of yo i th tdrd Bk Grou s ivstmt bkig or sls d trdig drtmts. Howvr, such sls d trdig drtmts my trd, s ricil, o th bsis of th rsrch lyst s ublishd rsrch. Thrfor, th roritry itrsts of thos sls d trdig drtmts my coflict with your itrsts. Lgl Etitis To U.. Rsidts tdrd Nw York curitis Ic. is rgistrd with th curitis d Exchg Commissio s brokr-dlr d is lso mmbr of th FINRA d IPC. tdrd Amrics, Ic is rgistrd s commodity trdig dvisor d commodity ool ortor with th CFTC d is lso mmbr of th NFA. Both r ffilits of tdrd Bk Plc d tdrd Bk of outh Afric. tdrd Nw York curitis, Ic is rsosibl for th dissmitio of this rsrch rort i th Uitd tts. Ay rciit of this rsrch i th Uitd tts wishig to ffct trsctio i y scurity mtiod hri should do so by cotctig tdrd Nw York curitis, Ic. To outh Afric Rsidts Th tdrd Bk of outh Afric Limitd (Rg.No.96/738/6) is rgultd by th outh Afric Rsrv Bk d is Authorisd Ficil rvics Providr. To U.K. Rsidts tdrd Bk Plc is uthorisd d rgultd by th Ficil rvics Authority (rgistr umbr 483) d is ffilit of tdrd Bk of outh Afric. Th iformtio cotid hri dos ot ly to, d should ot b rlid uo by, rtil customrs. To Turky Rsidts tdrd Ulu kul Dgrlr A.. d tdrd Ulu Portfoy Yotimi A.. r rgultd by th Turkish Citl rkts Bord ( CB ). Udr th CB s lgisltio, th iformtio, commts d rcommdtios cotid i this rort fll outsid of th dfiitio of ivstmt dvisory srvics. Ivstmt dvisory srvics r rovidd udr ivstmt dvisory grmt btw clit d brokrg hous, ortfolio mgmt comy, bk tht dos ot cct dosits or othr citl mrkts rofssiols. Th commts d rcommdtios cotid i this rort r bsd o th rsol oiios of th uthors. Ths oiios might ot b rorit for your ficil situtio d risk d rtur rfrcs. For tht rso, ivstmt dcisios tht rly solly o th iformtio cotid i this rsttio might ot mt your xcttios. You should y cssry discrmt, tttio d cr i ordr ot to xric losss. To igor Rsidts igor rciits should cotct igor ficil dvisr for y mttrs risig from this rsrch rort. Imortt Rgiol Disclosurs To th xtt this is rort uthord i whol or i rt by o-u.. lyst d is md vilbl i th U.., th followig r imortt disclosurs rgrdig y o-u.. lyst cotributors: Th o-u.. rsrch lysts (dotd by strisk*) r ot rgistrd/qulifid s rsrch lysts with FINRA. Th o-u.. rsrch lysts (dotd by strisk*) my ot b ssocitd rsos of tdrd Nw York curitis Ic. d thrfor my ot b subjct to th NAD Rul 7 d NYE Rul 47 rstrictios o commuictios with subjct comy, ublic rcs d trdig scuritis hld by rsrch lyst ccout. Ech lyst (dotd by strisk*) is No-U.. Alyst. Th lyst is rsrch lyst mloyd by Th tdrd Bk Grou Limitd.. Grl For th uross of this rort tdrd CIB rfrs to thos divisios of tdrd Bk Grou Limitd who r mily ivolvd i corort d ivstmt bkig busiss d dos ot rfr xclusivly to y rticulr titis withi tdrd Bk Grou. This rsrch rort is bsd o iformtio from sourcs tht tdrd CIB blivs to b rlibl. Whilst vry cr hs b tk i rrig this documt, o rsrch lyst or mmbr of tdrd CIB givs y rrsttio, wrrty or udrtkig d ccts o rsosibility or libility s to th ccurcy or comltss of th iformtio st out i this documt (xct with rsct to y disclosurs rltiv to mmbrs of tdrd CIB d th rsrch lyst s ivolvmt with y issur rfrrd to bov). All viws, oiios d stimts cotid i this documt my b chgd ftr ublictio t y tim without otic. Pst rformc is ot idictiv of futur rsults. Th ivstmts d strtgis discussd hr my ot b suitbl for ll ivstors or y rticulr clss of ivstors; if you hv y doubts you should cosult your ivstmt dvisor. Th ivstmts discussd my fluctut i ric or vlu. Chgs i rts of xchg my hv dvrs ffct o th vlu of ivstmts. This mtril is ot itdd s offr or solicittio for th urchs or sl of y ficil istrumt. mbrs of tdrd CIB my ct s lcmt gt, dvisor or ldr, mk mrkt i, or my hv b mgr or co-mgr of, th most rct ublic offrig i rsct of y ivstmts or issurs rfrcd i this rort. mbrs of tdrd CIB d/or thir rsctiv dirctors d mloys my ow th ivstmts of y of th issurs 6 Commoditis

7 Commoditis Dily 4 Novmbr discussd hri d my sll thm to or buy thm from customrs o ricil bsis. This rort is itdd solly for clits d rosctiv clits of mmbrs of tdrd CIB d is ot itdd for, d my ot b rlid o by, rtil customrs or rsos to whom this rort my ot b rovidd by lw. This rort is for iformtio uross oly d my ot b rroducd or distributd to y othr rso without th rior cost of mmbr of tdrd CIB. Uuthorisd us or disclosur of this documt is strictly rohibitd. By cctig this documt, you gr to b boud by th forgoig limittios. Coyright tdrd Bk Grou Limitd. All rights rsrvd. AG/CO/ **NOT INVETENT REEARCH This documt is itdd s th uthors' viw d s such dos ot rrst th viws of tdrd Bk Grou. Pls ot tht o or mor of th uthors tht rrd this rort sit o sls d trdig dsk of th tdrd Bk Grou. Notic to U Rsidts: This is ot Rsrch Rort s tht trm is st out i Rgultio AC of th curitis d Exchg Commissio ruls. As such it might ot hv b rrd i ccordc with ruls dsigd to romot iddt ivstmt rsrch. Notic to EU d UK Rsidts: This documt is ot ivstmt rsrch. It is thrfor costituts "mrktig commuictio" s thos trms r dfid by th UK FA Hdbook, s it hs ot b rrd i ccordc with th EU lgl rquirmts dsigd to romot th iddc of ivstmt rsrch. Whilst vry cr hs b tk i rrig this documt, o mmbr of th tdrd Bk Grou givs y rrsttio, wrrty or udrtkig d ccts o rsosibility or libility s to th ccurcy or comltss of th iformtio st out i this documt. All viws, oiios d stimts cotid i this documt my b chgd ftr ublictio t y tim without otic. Pst rformc is ot idictiv of futur rsults. Th ivstmts d strtgis discussd hr my ot b suitbl for ll ivstors or y rticulr clss of ivstors; if you hv y doubts you should cosult your ivstmt dvisor. Th ivstmts discussd my fluctut i ric or vlu. Chgs i rts of xchg my hv dvrs ffct o th vlu of ivstmts. This mtril is ot itdd s offr or solicittio for th urchs or sl of y ficil istrumt. mbrs of tdrd Bk Grou my ct s lcmt gt, dvisor or ldr, mk mrkt i, or my hv b mgr or co mgr of, th most rct ublic offrig i rsct of y ivstmts or issurs rfrcd i this rort. mbrs of th tdrd Bk Grou d/or thir rsctiv dirctors d mloys my ow th ivstmts of y of th issurs discussd hri d my sll thm to or buy thm from customrs o ricil bsis. This rort is itdd solly for clits d rosctiv clits of mmbrs of th tdrd Bk Grou d is ot itdd for, d my ot b rlid o by, rtil customrs or rsos to whom this rort my ot b rovidd by lw. This rort is for iformtio uross oly d my ot b rroducd or distributd to y othr rso without th rior cost of mmbr of th tdrd Bk Grou. Uuthorisd us or disclosur of this documt is strictly rohibitd. By cctig this documt, you gr to b boud by th forgoig limittios. Tlho clls my b rcordd for qulity d rgultory uross. Coyright 8 tdrd Bk Grou. All rights rsrvd. tdrd Bk Plc, Grshm trt, Lodo ECV 7JE. To outh Afric Rsidts Th tdrd Bk of outh Afric Limitd (Rg.No.96/738/6) is rgultd by th outh Afric Rsrv Bk d is Authorisd Ficil rvics Providr. Commoditis 7