Housing Market Overview Prepared for CitiBank. January 2014

Transcription

1 Prepared for CitiBank January 214

2 Combined capital cities Combined capital city home values increased by 2.8% over the final quarter of 213 according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. Home values are now 11.8% higher than they were when they hit a trough in May 212 and are 3.5% higher than their previous peak. Over the 213 calendar year, combined capital city home values have increased by 9.8% making last year the strongest calendar year for value growth since 29. Over the past quarter, house values have increased by 2.8% compared to a 2.7% increase in unit values. Over the 213 calendar year, house values increased by 9.9% compared to a 9.% increase in unit values. RP Data estimates that there have been 32,678 capital city homes sold over the 12 months to October 213, which indicates sales volumes are currently 11.1% higher than they were one year ago. The current level of sales across the combined capital city markets are 2.7% higher than the five year average. Rental rates for houses across the combined capital cities have increased by 2.8% over the year to $479/week and for units, rents are currently $451/week, which is 4.3% higher than 12 months ago. Over the final quarter of the year, rental growth for houses was benign at.4% while unit rents increased 2.%. The average gross rental yield for capital city houses is currently 3.9% and 4.7% for units, down from 4.2% and 4.9% respectively a year ago. 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, combined capital city home values -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of combined capital city house and unit sales 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 Sydney According to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, Sydney home values have increased by 4.1% over the December quarter, the largest increase across each of the capital city markets. Over the past year, Sydney dwelling values have risen by 14.5%, the greatest increase in values across all capital city markets and the largest calendar year increase in values for the city since 22. Sydney home values are currently 1.9% higher than their previous peak. Over the three months to December 213, detached house values increased by 4.1%, compared to a lower 3.9% for units. Throughout 213, house values rose by 15.2% and unit values increased by 11.6%. It is estimated that there were 94,733 Sydney properties sold over the 12 months to October 213, which indicates that current sales volumes are about 3.3% higher than the five year average for Sydney and 1.9% higher than over the 12 months to October 212. The annual number of Sydney home sales is now at its highest level since August 21. Rental rates across Sydney have increased by 4.3% for houses and 3.9% for units over the past 12 months. The current rental rate for a typical Sydney house is $582/week and $59/week for units. Gross rental yields have fallen from 4.3% a year ago for houses to 3.9% and from 5.% to 4.7% for units. 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Sydney home values, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Sydney house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 2

3 Melbourne Melbourne home values rose by 1.3% over the final quarter of 213 according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. Melbourne recorded the third highest level of capital growth over the 213 calendar year amongst the capital cities. The 8.5% increase in home values in 213 was the strongest level of calendar year growth for Melbourne since 21. Melbourne s detached housing market has recorded a slightly lower level of capital growth compared to the unit market both over the quarter and year. House values increased by 1.1% over the quarter and by 8.5% over the year compared to a 2.5% increase in unit values over the quarter and an 8.7% annual increase. Over the 12 months to October 213, RP Data estimates that 8,443 Melbourne homes were sold. Transaction volumes to October 213 were 9.5% higher than the volume of sales recorded over the year to October 212, however, sales volumes were -3.6% lower than the five year average levels. Melbourne rental rates have risen at a moderate rate over the 12 months to December, with house rents up 2.5% and unit rents having risen by 2.1%. The current rental rate for a typical Melbourne house is $434/week and the gross rental yield has fallen slightly over the year from 3.6% to 3.4%. For units, the average weekly rental rate is recorded at $389/week and the gross rental yield has fallen from 4.4% to 4.2%. Melbourne has the lowest rental yields of all capital cities. 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Melbourne home values -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Melbourne house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Brisbane Based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, Brisbane home values rose by 2.% over the December quarter, with home values rising by 5.1% over 213. The 5.1% annual increase was the largest calendar year rise in Brisbane home values since 29. Over the quarter, house values rose by 3.5% and unit values increased by 2.4%. On an annual basis, house values have increased at a faster pace than unit values, rising by 5.3% and 3.5% respectively. Despite the fact that home values are now rising across the city, they remain -6.6% lower than their previous peak. RP Data estimates that over the 12 months to October213 there were 44,356 Brisbane homes sold, indicating that current sales volumes are 14.3% higher than one year earlier. Sales volumes are also now 5.3% higher than their five year average. Across Brisbane, rental rates for both houses and units have increased over the past year, however house rents are up by a larger amount (1.9%), compared to only a slight increase across the unit market (.9%). The current rental rate for a Brisbane houses is recorded at $426/week and $48/week for units, which makes Brisbane the city with the smallest difference between house and unit rental rates. Gross rental yields have fallen from 4.7% a year ago to 4.6% for houses, while for units, yields have fallen from 5.6% to 5.5%. 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Brisbane home values, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Brisbane house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 3

4 Adelaide Adelaide dwelling values increased by 1.8% over the final quarter of 213 according to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. Detached house values increased by 3.% over the quarter compared to a.6% increase in unit values. Over the 213 calendar year, Adelaide home values increased by 2.8%, the second weakest level of capital growth of all Australian capital cities. Adelaide home values at the end of 213 were -2.4% lower than they were at their previous peak. Once again, house values recorded stronger growth than unit values, rising 3.% over the year compared to a.6% increase in unit values. Over the year to October 213, it is estimated that 25,61 Adelaide homes transacted. In comparison, one year ago, sales volumes were lower, with current sales activity estimated to be 8.4% higher. Although volumes have trended higher over the past year, current sales activity is -1.2% lower than the five year average sales volumes across Adelaide. Across Adelaide, the median rental rate for houses is recorded at $366/week and $311/week for units. The rental rate for Adelaide houses has increased by 2.2% over the past twelve months and for units rental rates have increased by 1.3%. Gross rental yields have remained unchanged over the year for houses at 4.3% while for units they have edged up to 4.9% from 4.8% a year ago. 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Adelaide home values -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Adelaide house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Perth Based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, dwelling values in Perth recorded a 3.9% increase over the final quarter of 213. Home values across the city rose by 9.9% in 213, the second strongest growth rate across the capital cities over the year. The 9.9% annual increase in values was the largest calendar year increase in values since 26. The performance across Perth s house and unit market has been quite different recently, with values for houses up 4.2% over the quarter and unit values having risen by a much lower.1% over the quarter. Over 213, house values rose 1.2% compared to a 6.3% increase in unit values. Since late 211, the rolling annual sales volumes across the Perth market have been increasing. RP Data estimates that over the year to October 213 there were 43,457 homes sold across Perth. Compared to the five year average number of sales across the region, current transaction levels are 2.8% higher, and compared to the same period in 212, volumes are 16.% higher. The median rent across Perth is recorded at $55/week for houses and $449/week for units, rising by 1.4% and 3.1% respectively throughout 213. With strong value growth over the year, gross rental yields have fallen to 4.2% for houses and 4.8% for units. At the same time in 213 yields were recorded at 4.5% for houses and 5.% for units. 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Perth home values, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Perth house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 4

5 Hobart Dwelling values across Hobart rose by 1.4% over the final quarter of 213 based on the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index. Hobart home values increased by 2.2% in 213 making it the weakest performing city for capital growth throughout the year. Home values in Hobart are currently -12.% lower than they were at their peak. For houses, values increased by 2.5% over the quarter and were 2.9% higher over 213. Unit values fell by -9.3% over the final quarter of 213 and were -5.1% lower over the year. The number of number of house and unit sales recorded across Hobart has shown some improvement over the past year. It is estimated that over the 12 months to October 213 there were 4,149 Hobart homes sold, which is 13.2% higher than over the 12 months period a year earlier. Despite the recent increase in sales volumes, sales across Hobart over the year were -3.6% lower than the five year average. Over the past year, rental rates across Hobart have remained relatively unchanged, with rental rates up.8% for houses and 6% for units. The median rental rate for Hobart houses is currently recorded at $332/week and the gross rental yield has fallen from 5.4% one year ago to 5.3% currently. For units, rental rates are recorded at $279/week and the gross rental yield has improved from 5.2% to 5.6% over the year. 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Hobart home values -1.% Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Hobart house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Darwin Over the three months ending December 213, Darwin home values recorded a 3.6% increase based on the RP Data- Rismark Home Value Index. On an annual basis home values across the city have increased by 3.3% and as a result Darwin was the third weakest capital city for value growth in 213. For houses, values increased by 3.8% over the three months to December, compared to a 2.9% increase in values for units. Throughout 213, house values rose by 5.1% compared to a -3.9% fall in unit values. 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% Darwin home values RP Data estimates that there were 3,369 homes sold across Darwin over the 12 months to October 213. The number of Darwin sales is currently 11.7% higher when compared to the five year average and is 12.4% higher than sales volumes over the year to October 212. Since late 21, the rolling annual number of Darwin home sales has trended higher. Median rental rates have increased by 3.8% for houses and 1.6% for units across Darwin over the 12 months to December 213. This marks a significant slowing of rental growth over the year. Darwin house rents are currently the most expensive across the capital cities, at $625/week, while a typical Darwin unit is rented for $499/week. Currently, the rental yield for Darwin houses is recorded at 6.%, compared to 6.1% one year ago and for units, gross rental yields have increased from 5.9% to 6.2%. Darwin rental properties offer the greatest return on investment across the capital city markets. -1.% -2.% Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Darwin house and unit sales Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 1,4 1,2 1,

6 Canberra According to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, over the final quarter of 213 home values across Canberra have fallen by -1.3%. Both the detached house and unit markets have recorded quarterly falls with house values down -1.3% and unit values -.2% lower. Throughout 213, Canberra home values have increased by 3.5% making it the capital city with the fourth strongest level of calendar year value growth. Over 213, house values increased by 3.7% compared to a 1.5% increase in unit values. RP Data estimates that over the year to October 213 there were 7,121 house and unit sales in Canberra. Sales activity over the most recent year was -3.9% lower than over the year prior and -18.5% lower than the five year average. Canberra is the only capital city market where sales volumes are trending lower. The rental performance across the Canberra market has been weak over the past year. Rental rates for houses are recorded at $516/week after falling by -4.5% over the year. Unit rents have fallen by -4.9% over the year to reach $421/week. Gross rental yields for both houses and units have decreased over the year. The current yield for a Canberra house is recorded at 4.4%, compared to 4.8% last year, while for units, the current yield is 5.2% compared to 5.6% 12 months prior. 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% -5.% -1.% Dec-97 Dec-99 Dec-1 Dec-3 Dec-5 Dec-7 Dec-9 Dec-11 Dec-13 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Canberra home values, RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Rolling annual number of Canberra house and unit sales Oct-98 Oct-1 Oct-4 Oct-7 Oct-1 Oct-13 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 6

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10 The residential property market offers a wealth of opportunities both for investors and home owners. As a Citigold customer you are invited to take advantage of our exclusive benefits that can make the process of buying and owning your property even more rewarding. A Relationship Manager focused on your goals Your Citigold Relationship Manager, with the help of our team of specialists, can work with you to help you achieve your financial goals. Access the expertise of our Mortgage Specialists Whether you are looking to buy or refinance a property our Mortgage Specialists will work closely with you to understand and analyse your needs, to determine the right loan and structure for you. Exclusive Citigold home loan benefits No application fee on all Citibank home loans Exclusive preferential discounts on variable rates from our comprehensive range of Citibank home loans First year annual package fee waiver on our Mortgage Plus package. Detailed market reports Whether you need to re-finance a property or are looking to invest in the property market, we re ready to help. Simply contact your Relationship Manager or your nearest Mortgage Specialist we will be able to answer any home loan, property investment or equity release questions you may have. Plus we can provide you with a complimentary RP Data report customised to your suburb and property search criteria. It will help you understand the equity in your home, find a new property or negotiate a better price. Your branch based mortgage specialists NSW Park St NSW Park St NSW Pitt St NSW Pitt St Paul Geelan 2 Park St, Sydney paul.geelan@citi.com Pavani Palaniappan 2 Park St, Sydney pavani.palaniappan@citi.com Scott Paterson 68 Pitt St, Sydney scott.paterson@citi.com Alper Yavuz 68 Pitt St alper.yavuz@citi.com NSW Castle Hill NSW Chinatown NSW - Chatswood QLD - Brisbane Ishani Roy Castle Towers Castle Hill ishani.roy@citi.com Anny Chen Chinatown 695 George Street anny.chen@citi.com Isabella Zhou 451 Victoria Ave, Chatswood isabella.zhou@citi.com Cyndy Chan 141 Queen St Brisbane cyndy.chan@citi.com WA Perth, Joondalup & Booragoon David Sonntag 37 St Georges Terrace David.Sonntag@citi.com VIC Camberwell VIC Melbourne ViC Melbourne Kate Davison 61 Bourke Rd kate.davison@citi.com Damien Paris 35 Collins St damien.paris@citi.com Stephanie Zhang 235 Little Bourke St bei1.zhang@citi.com