Maximising income through bonds Elizabeth Moran Director of Education and Fixed Income Research

Transcription

1 Maximising income through bonds Elizabeth Moran Director of Education and Fixed Income Research

2 What is your portfolio allocation? Do you have enough defensive assets?

3 Key considerations Income, given risk Diversity Saved enough? If not, it s the wrong time to be overweight risk

4 Bonds cover the middle ground Term deposits Fixed term Known interest Capital repaid at maturity Very safe Low returns Bonds Fixed term Known interest Capital repaid at maturity Slightly higher risk than TDs Higher returns than term deposits Shares Dividends can be cut Have to sell to recoup capital Highest risk Should deliver the highest returns Lowest risk Highest risk Lowest returns Highest returns

5 The Efficient Frontier Return % Bonds Shares Deposits Risk % (Standard Deviation)

6 Bonds have benefits that term deposits do not Higher returns for slightly higher risk Three types of bonds with three types of protections across economic cycles Income paid either quarterly or half yearly most annual term deposits pay interest once at maturity Banks will pay more frequently but the interest rate in lower Tradeable investments you don t have to hold until maturity Higher than expected returns or possible loss if you sell prior to maturity Other benefits Diversification o Companies not listed on the ASX o International companies issuing in Australian dollars o Foreign currency bonds

7 Qantas bonds versus shares Qantas bonds Believe Qantas will survive $2.4bn in cash on balance sheet $630m in undrawn bank facilities Many assets that it can sell Issued USD bonds Fixed rate A$250m on issue maturing 2020 paying 6.5% available to retail Fixed rate A$300m on issue maturing 2022 paying 7.75% available to sophisticated only Qantas shares Facing full year loss - no growth Dividend has not been paid for three years Share price high of $1.70 and low 0.95 in last year Bonds provide known income and return of capital at maturity; shares do not have that certainty

8 What gives analysts (and investors) confidence? Source: FIIG Securities

9 How the capital structure translates in the market CBA value of $100 invested on 29 December 2007 (includes dividends receipts on equities and coupon payments on bonds) $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 29-Dec Apr Jul Oct Feb May Aug Nov Mar Jun Sep Jan Apr Jul Oct Feb May Aug Dec Mar Jun Sep Jan-14 CBA Equity CBA Perls (PCAPA) CBA 6.25% 12Mar10, CBA 7.25% 05Feb20

10 Need to protect against Sequencing risk Your asset allocation is too highly weighted to growth assets and there s another correction you suffer a permanent loss of capital Longevity risk Out live savings Inflation risk Prices start to spiral, the value of your capital fails to keep pace You haven t saved enough for retirement Not the time to risk what you have saved Protect enough capital and income to live well; use the rest for growth, to boost overall returns

11 Returns remember annual inflation is 2.9% Term deposits major other 1 yr 3.4% 3.8% 3 yr 3.9% 4.0% 5 yr 4.3% 4.5% Bonds Retail portfolio of six bonds for $200, % income next year 5.76% yield to maturity Sophisticated or wholesale portfolio for $500, % income and 6.05% yield to maturity High yield portfolio for $500, % income and 6.99% yield to maturity Shares Dividends avg. 4.96% CBA 4.73% ANZ 5.25% NAB 5.83% WBC 5.20% TLS 5.40% BHP 3.37% Including franking, circa 7.08% Rates accurate as at 22 May 2014 but subject to change

12 Retail bond portfolio Yield to maturity 5.76% and projected income next year 5.15% Issuer Call / maturity date Bond type Capital structure Yield to maturity Income Face value parcel Bendigo and Adelaide Bank 29/01/2019 Floating Subordinated debt 5.37% 5.30% $50,000 Envestra 20/08/2025 Inflation linked Senior Debt 5.57% 3.07% $38,082 Southbank Tafe 28/06/2018 Fixed Senior Debt 4.85% 6.23% $10,000 Qantas 27/04/2020 Fixed Senior Debt 6.42% 6.48% $50,000 Stockland 25/11/2020 Fixed Senior Debt 4.65% 6.87% $20,000 Sydney Airport 20/11/2030 Inflation linked Senior Debt 6.70% 3.60% $36,792 $204,874 Note: Prices and yields accurate as at 19 May 2014 but subject to change

13 Retail bond portfolio Cashflow Issuer 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Envestra Southbank Tafe Qantas 1,625 1,625 Stockland Sydney Airport Total 1,345 4,131 1,352 4,138 Yields accurate as at 19 May All prices and yields are a guide only and subject to market availability. FIIG does not make a market in these securities.

14 How to buy bonds Over the counter market (95% of the total market) o Need a bond dealer or broker to transact o They will charge a brokerage fee, may charge a fee to set up a custodial account, no other management or ongoing fees o Investor has control over what they invest in o Natural maturity dates and known interest payment dates ASX Listed market o Small part of the market, predominantly hybrids o Most institutional investors don t invest here Managed funds o Manager decides what to invest in, when to buy and sell, they have control o Need liquidity, so high allocation to government bonds o Ongoing management fees Bond ETFs o Large allocation to government bonds

15 In summary Bonds are the next best investment to term deposits in terms of risk Dividends on shares and hybrids can be foregone, there is no repayment of capital A year-long term deposit will usually pay one interest payment at maturity Bonds however pay either quarterly for floating rate and inflation linked or semi-annually for fixed rate Term deposit interest payments can be made more regularly but this usually means the rate you can achieve is lower Compounding also has positive benefits on an ongoing basis Bond portfolios can be constructed to suit individual risk/ return/ income requirements

16 You can rely on your defensive assets in tough conditions

17 Contact Sydney Level Phillip Street Sydney New South Wales 2000 Australia Melbourne Level Collins Street Melbourne Victoria 3000 Australia Brisbane Level Eagle Street Brisbane Queensland 4000 Australia Perth Level Hay Street Perth Western Australia 6000 Australia T +61 (0) F +61 (0) T +61 (0) F +61 (0) T +61 (0) F +61 (0) T +61 (0) F +61 (0) Disclaimer FIIG Securities Limited ( FIIG ) provides general financial product advice only. As a result, this document and any information, advice or recommendation has been provided by FIIG without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this, you should before acting on any information, advice or recommendation from FIIG consider the appropriateness of the information, advice or recommendation, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If this document, or any information, advice or recommendation, relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product, you should obtain a product disclosure document relating to the product and consider the document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. FIIG, its directors, representatives, employees or related parties may have an interest in any companies or entities, or any financial product issued by companies and entities, and may earn revenue from the sale or purchase of any financial product, referred to in this document or in any information, advice or recommendation. Neither FIIG, nor any of its directors, representatives, employees, or agents, make any representation or warranty as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness, of this document or any information, advice or recommendation. Nor do they accept any liability or responsibility arising in any way (including negligence) for errors in, or omissions from, this document or any information, advice or recommendation. Any reference to credit ratings of companies, entities or financial products must only be relied upon by a wholesale client as that term is defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). FIIG strongly recommends that you seek independent accounting, financial, taxation, and legal advice, tailored to your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, prior to making any investment decision. FIIG does not make a market in the securities or products that may be referred to in this document. The FIIG research analyst certifies that all of the views expressed in this document accurately reflects their views about the companies and financial products referred to in this document and that their remuneration is not directly or indirectly related to the views of the research analyst. This document is not available for distribution outside Australia and New Zealand and may not be passed on to any third party without the prior written consent of FIIG. A copy of FIIG s current Financial Services Guide is available at