Investment & Reliability in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Perspective

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1 Investment & Reliability in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Perspective Doug Cooke Energy Diversification Division International Energy Agency Joint IEA-NEA Workshop on Power Generation Investment in Liberalised Electricity Markets Paris, March 2003

2 Darwin Northern Territory Cairns Port Hedland Western Australia Alice Springs Queensland South Australia Brisbane Perth Port Augusta New South Wales Adelaide Victoria Sydney Canberra (ACT) Melbourne Tasmania Hobart

3 Darwin NEM Start: Northern Territory Cairns Port Hedland Western Australia Alice Springs Queensland South Australia Brisbane Perth Port Augusta New South Wales Adelaide Victoria Sydney Canberra (ACT) Melbourne Tasmania Hobart

4 Darwin Northern Territory Cairns NEM Start: Port Hedland Western Australia Alice Springs Queensland South Australia Brisbane Perth Port Augusta New South Wales Adelaide Victoria Sydney Canberra (ACT) Melbourne Tasmania Hobart

5 Darwin Northern Territory Cairns NEM Start: Port Hedland Western Australia Alice Springs Queensland South Australia Brisbane Perth Port Augusta New South Wales Adelaide Victoria Sydney Canberra (ACT) Melbourne Tasmania Hobart

6 Darwin Northern Territory Cairns NEM Start: Port Hedland Western Australia Alice Springs Queensland South Australia Brisbane Perth Port Augusta New South Wales Adelaide Victoria Sydney Canberra (ACT) Melbourne Tasmania Hobart

7 Darwin Northern Territory Cairns NEM Start: Port Hedland Western Australia Alice Springs Queensland South Australia Brisbane Perth Port Augusta New South Wales Adelaide Victoria Sydney Canberra (ACT) Melbourne Tasmania Hobart

8 NEM Start: QLD SA

9 NEM Start: QLD SA 3000 MW 850 MW

10 NEM Start: QLD SA 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1500 MW

11 NEM Start: QLD SA 500 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1500 MW

12 NEM Start: QLD SA 500 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1500 MW

13 NEM Start: QLD SA 500 MW 180 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1500 MW

14 NEM Start: QLD SA 500 MW 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1500 MW

15 NEM Start: QLD SA 720 MW 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1500 MW

16 NEM Start: QLD SA 720 MW 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1900 MW

17 NEM Start: QLD SA 720 MW 1180 MW 250 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1900 MW

18 NEM Start: QLD SA 720 MW 1180 MW 250 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1900 MW 480 MW

19 QLD NEM Start: Gross Pool SA 720 MW 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1900 MW

20 SA 720 MW QLD 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW NEM Start: Gross Pool Single MSO 1100 MW 1900 MW

21 SA 720 MW QLD 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW NEM Start: Gross Pool Single MSO Supply: 38,000 MW 175,000 GWh 1100 MW 1900 MW

22 SA 720 MW QLD 1180 MW 680 MW 3000 MW 850 MW 1100 MW 1900 MW NEM Start: Gross Pool Single MSO Supply: 38,000 MW 175,000 GWh Demand: 7.7m users 150,000 GWh

23 SA 720 MW 1180 MW 3000 MW 1100 MW 480 MW TAS QLD 680 MW 850 MW 1900 MW NEM Start: Gross Pool Single MSO Supply: 38,000 MW 175,000 GWh Demand: 7.7m users 150,000 GWh Tasmania from 2005

24 NEM Investment Performance Over 3,300 MW new generation commissioned since market start 9.6% increase NEM generating capacity Timing and location generally reflects locational pricing signals nearly 80% located in high-price regions System reliability and security requirements largely met

25 But Will It Continue? Concerns are emerging... Can the market continue to deliver sufficient, timely investment? Governments are under increasing pressure to act But how should they respond?

26 Victorian Example February 2000 crisis Emergency responses NEMMCO Victorian Government Impact: prolonged the crisis & distorted NEM operation helped delay peak generation investment in Victoria

27 Queensland Example Rapidly growing demand and diminishing reserves Government initiated investment program 2,500 MWs in four major projects Impact: poorly timed and sized investment response significant government subsidies and reduced NEM efficiency

28 South Australian Example Rapidly growing demand and diminishing reserves Government resisted pressure to intervene focused on fast-tracking approvals for new private generation Impact: over 800 MW of new generation increase of nearly one-third in regional generating capacity since market start

29 Some Observations Investment has responded to NEM price signals and it has been sufficient to meet demand and reliability requirements Investment has been sensitive to government policies and actions Policies that support market-based responses can deliver appropriate investment and reliability outcomes

30 Investment & Reliability in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Perspective Doug Cooke Energy Diversification Division International Energy Agency Joint IEA-NEA Workshop on Power Generation Investment in Liberalised Electricity Markets Paris, March 2003

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