CoreLogic-Moody s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index 2016Q1

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1 ANALYSIS Prepared By Alaistair Chan Economist Faraz Syed Associate Economist Contact Us U.S./Canada CoreLogic-Moody s Analytics Australian Home Value Index 216Q1 Introduction After two years of exceptional house price appreciation, CoreLogic-Moody s Analytics Australian Home Value Index shows a slowdown in house price growth across the country, underpinned by expectations of slower income growth. Nevertheless, accommodative policy, robust rental growth, and a recovering labour market are expected to support valuations over the medium term. Regionally, Sydney s housing market is expected to rebound by late 216, while Melbourne s market is expected to go through an extended period of sluggishness. Mining regions, including Perth, the rest of Western Australia, and Darwin, are likely to have downbeat results over the near to medium term. No price declines are expected in Adelaide, although price growth will underperform the rest of the country for the near to medium term. EMEA (London) (Prague) Asia/Pacific All Others Web

2 CoreLogic-Moody s Analytics Australian Home Value Index 216Q1 BY ALAISTAIR CHAN AND FARAZ SYED After two years of exceptional house price appreciation, CoreLogic-Moody s Analytics Australian Home Value Index shows a slowdown in house price growth across the country, underpinned by expectations of slower income growth. Nevertheless, accommodative policy, robust rental growth, and a recovering labour market are expected to support valuations over the medium term. Regionally, Sydney s housing market is expected to rebound by late 216, while Melbourne s market is expected to go through an extended period of sluggishness. Mining regions, including Perth, the rest of Western Australia, and Darwin, are likely to have downbeat results over the near to medium term. No price declines are expected in Adelaide, although price growth will underperform the rest of the country for the near to medium term. The slow transition from mining investment Australia s economy continues to rebalance away from mining-led investment. Mining investment has dropped 38% since mid-213 an annualized $37 billion loss in investment activity, equivalent to 2.3% of GDP with no trough in sight. High global supplies of commodities have pushed down export prices and weighed on national incomes, and the terms of trade have fallen by one-third since 211 (see Chart 1). Unemployment in the mining state of Western Australia rose to 6.4% in the fourth quarter of 215, up from 3.7% in mid-212. Nationwide, unemployment was 5.8% in the fourth quarter, up from 4.9% in 211. The relatively small deterioration in employment conditions nationwide may explain why households have been remarkably sanguine about economic conditions: The Westpac- Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Confidence has fluctuated between mild pessimism and mild optimism over the past few years (see Chart 2). That the economy has not succumbed to recession so far is a testament to resilient Australian households, which have bolstered the economy through higher spending, helped by savings built up since 29. Household savings disposable income minus consumption averaged 9.3% of disposable income in Since then, households have dipped into their savings a little by the end of 215, the household savings rate had fallen to 8%, representing an additional $3 billion a quarter of spending and this has blunted the effects of weaker employment conditions (see Chart 3). Chart 1: Mining Industry Slumps Chart 2: Consumers Remain Upbeat 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Capital expenditure, mining, A$ bil (L) Terms of trade, index (R) Unemployment rate, % (L) Consumer sentiment, over 1=net optimism (R) Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Moody s Analytics Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Westpac-Melbourne Institute, Moody s Analytics FEBRUARY 216

3 Chart 3: Households Have Savings Buffer Disposable income minus consumption as share of income, % Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Moody s Analytics Chart 4: Households Offset Mining Slump GDP components, % change yr ago 4 Household expenditure Government expenditure 3 Gross fixed capital formation Exports 2 Imports Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Moody s Analytics Despite the fall in trade and the decline in Australian export prices, disposable incomes increased a solid, if unspectacular, 2.8% year over year from 213 to 215, a cumulative increase of 9%. This development enabled household expenditure to support the economy, which expanded around 2.3% y/y over (see Chart 4). Accommodative policy settings are also abetting the transition away from mining and towards consumption. The Reserve Bank of Australia has lowered the cash rate by a cumulative 275 basis points since 211. This action has lifted credit growth, which was rising 6.8% y/y by December 215. Housing has been the biggest recipient of this extra lending and is now receiving 6% of total credit (see Chart 5). From 212 to mid-215, most housing-related lending was for investment purposes, but since then housing investment loans have fallen sharply, while lending for owner-occupiers has surged, most likely a result of macroprudential guidance from the RBA and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Strong credit growth coupled with steady income growth has kept the housing sector buoyant. Dwelling prices nationwide rose close to one-third from 212 to January 216. Price growth has been strongest in Sydney and Melbourne. Building approvals and housing construction have risen to match demand, and this situation has worked to improve employment conditions. These recent trends make the outlook for housing even more important to the outlook for the broader economy. With the RBA and APRA maintaining their controls on housing investment lending, and with the drag on national income from low 3 Table 1: Hedonic HVI s % change yr ago commodity prices persisting, the near- and medium-term outlook for housing is a little more subdued. Broadly speaking, slower income growth and the anticipated rise in supply when the current tranche of construction is completed will cool house price appreciation nationwide in 216. Offsetting this trend are the low cost of borrowing and improving employment conditions. Moody s Analytics expects nationwide house values to rise just 1.1% year on year in the third quarter of 216, down from a peak 1.8% gain in the third quarter of 215, before a gradual recovery as the economy returns to trend growth. Of course, this hides considerable regional variation. 4 Chart 5: Housing Loans Surge Credit growth, % change yr ago 21 Total credit Housing, owner-occupied Housing, investment Personal 14 Business Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Moody s Analytics Region 216Q National Australian Capital Territory Adelaide Brisbane Darwin Hobart Melbourne Perth Sydney Rest of New South Wales Rest of Queensland Rest of South Australia Rest of Victoria Rest of Western Australia Source: Moody s Analytics 5 2 FEBRUARY 216

4 Chart 6: Sydney and Melbourne Hedonic Home Value Index 1,5 National Melbourne 1,2 Sydney Other GCCSAs 9 Chart 7: Perth and Rest of Western Australia Hedonic Home Value Index 1,5 National Perth 1,2 Rest of WA Other GCCSAs Prices to fall in Sydney in 216, glut to hit Melbourne for three years Sydney s housing market is forecast to cool in 216, a small recovery in prices in January (.5% m/m) notwithstanding. From current levels, Sydney dwelling prices are expected to decline.6% by the third quarter, a 2.6% drop from the peak reached in October 215, before recovering thereafter. This recovery is predicated on higher income and rental growth and slower growth in housing supply. Disposable incomes are tipped to fall.6% y/y in the second quarter before steadily climbing to 3.6% growth by early 218. Similarly, rental growth will slow to.9% y/y in the fourth quarter of 216 and then recover to 1.5% y/y by early 218. Slower supply growth building approvals spiked 61% y/y in the third quarter of 215, but growth slowed to 8.3% y/y by the first quarter of 216 is also expected to underpin a recovery in price growth from 217. Over the medium to long term (218 through 225), Moody s Analytics expects Sydney house values to rise 4.9% a year in nominal terms versus a 7.3% annual increase over the period from 1982 to the present (see Chart 6). House price growth in Melbourne is outpacing Sydney s so far in 216, and that will remain the case for the rest of the year. That said, the big gains are over. Melbourne dwelling prices are expected to rise an additional 2.3% from current valuations through mid-217. Thereafter, however, prices are expected to decline on average.2% every quarter until early 219, falling below current valuations. Dwelling prices will then recover to current valuations in 22. It should be noted that this will be in nominal terms; prices in real, inflation-adjusted terms in 22 are expected to still be lower than current real valuations. Melbourne s performance is mostly the result of high building supply. A cumulative 252, dwellings were approved over versus 28, in Sydney. Robust rental growth of 2.7% y/y through the forecast period will keep prices from falling further. Mining areas to endure more pain Battered by the slowdown in mining activity, house prices in Perth and the rest of Western Australia declined in 215. This trend will continue in 216. Low commodity prices, coupled with falling incomes and rising unemployment, are the key drivers of the housing slump in the west. Perth house prices fell 2.7% y/y in the first quarter of 216 and are expected to fall 2.5% from peak to trough in the second quarter of 216. Unlike in Melbourne, prices will mount a modest recovery, rising 4.8% in 217 after a.1% decline for 216. This comes as a result of lower supply growth building approvals fell 18% y/y in the third quarter of 215 and continued population growth (Perth has Australia s fastest population growth outside of Sydney and Melbourne). Conditions for the rest of Western Australia are less positive. House prices declined 6.4% y/y in the fourth quarter of 215 and are expected to decline 7% more in 216 before a small recovery in 217 (see Chart 7). Valuations are expected to fall 1.7% from their peak in 214 to their trough in late 216. House price growth in Queensland will be subdued through 216, but prices will not decline. Brisbane s housing market will maintain its outperformance relative to the rest of Australia. Valuations are expected to rise 4.2% for 216, helped by good rental growth and relatively strong employment conditions in Brisbane. But slower employment growth in the rest of Queensland will weigh on its housing market, with values forecast to rise just 1.7% in 216 following a subdued 1.8% gain in 215. House prices in Darwin s volatile market will likely decline further. They dropped by 3.3% y/y in the first quarter of 216 and are expected to decline an additional 3.7% in the second. Falling rents, likely a 2.1% decline for 216, will push house prices down 1.7% in 216, compounding a 2.5% decline in 215. Strong market in ACT, underperforming Adelaide Housing markets in the Australian Capital Territory and Hobart are set for robust growth. Incomes in the ACT fell 9% from 213 to the middle of 215 as fiscal austerity cut government officials incomes, but they have been growing moderately since. Moody s Analytics forecasts a steady recovery in incomes through 217 to historical 7 3 FEBRUARY 216

5 Chart 8: Other Capital Cities Hedonic Home Value Index 1,5 National ACT Adelaide Brisbane 1,2 Darwin Hobart Other GCCSAs 9 Chart 9: Rest of State Regions Hedonic Home Value Index 1,5 National Rest of NSW 1,2 Rest of QLD Rest of SA Rest of Victoria Other GCCSAs trends. Therefore, ACT house values are expected to rise 5.3% in 216 after a dismal 1.9% gain in 215 (see Chart 8). House prices in South Australia tend to be volatile. They declined from 211 to 213, possibly because of the decline in manufacturing across the state. Structural changes in South Australia s industries mean that income growth is likely to underperform that of the rest of the country. Thus, house price growth will likely similarly underperform, expanding by just.3% in 216 and 2.8% in 217. Steady gains in service sector employment should ensure a stable, albeit unexciting, market (see Chart 9). Chart 1: Over-/Undervaluation National hedonic HVI vs. equilibrium forecast 8 Over-/undervaluation, % (R) 6 Actual (L) Trend (L) Which markets are overvalued? The Moody s Analytics error-correction structural approach to modeling housing dynamics also provides a way to estimate a fundamental value of housing, based on incomes, rents, and the employment-to-population ratio. Deviations from this trend represent estimates of over- or undervaluation. It should be noted that estimates of overvaluation do not necessarily imply expectations of house value declines and vice versa. Although the error-correction framework assumes that house values will revert to fundamental values, the path will not be straightforward. Estimates of fundamental house values will change over time as forecasts of income growth, interest rates and rental growth change, and that could raise or lower the fundamental value of housing to meet actual valuations. For example, Sydney dwelling prices surged 55% from 2 to 25. Prices exceeded the Moody s Analytics estimate of fundamental value and were 38% overvalued by late 23. This did not mean that prices were to fall 38%, although they did decline by 6.4% from early 24 to late 25. House prices moved closer to fundamental value because the fundamental value of 4 houses in Sydney rose 2.4% from 3 2 to 25, 2 driven by strong income growth, 1 which rose by one-third over the period. -1 As of February , house prices nationwide are 5.9% overvalued relative to fundamental values (see Chart 1). The biggest driver of this overvaluation is the housing market in Melbourne, which is more than 23% above the Moody s Analytics estimate of fundamental value. House values in Melbourne have appreciated far beyond what income and rental growth suggest is appropriate. This underlines the Moody s Analytics forecast that Melbourne s housing market is set for a period of near-stagnation while incomes, rents, and the employment market catch up with actual housing values. House prices in Sydney are closer to fair value than Melbourne s, although they are still 9.5% overvalued in aggregate. This smaller estimate of overvaluation is the result of Sydney s stronger employment market. Expectations of stronger fundamental drivers can mitigate current over- or undervaluation. For example, although the ACT housing market is considered 14% overvalued based on current fundamentals, expectations that incomes will rise based on freer government spending mean that fundamental values are expected to catch up to current values. The CoreLogic-Moody s Analytics hedonic HVI model can also illustrate the effects of hypothetical shocks. One presumption is that Australia s housing market is supported by the low interest rate environment, the implication being that higher interest rates would hurt housing valuations. To test this, Moody s Analytics ran the model with an assumption that the RBA cash rate would jump FEBRUARY 216

6 Chart 11: Higher Rates, Lower Valuations National hedonic HVI vs. normalised interest rate scenario 1,2 Deviation from baseline, 1, % (R) Normalised interest rate 8 scenario (L) Baseline (L) to 4.5% in the second quarter of 216 from its current 2%. 1 As expected, higher interest rates lower fundamental valuations. This has the effect of raising the degree of overvaluation in house prices (see Table 2). If the cash rate 1 Lending rates also rise to match the increase in the cash rate. All other variables were held constant Table 2: House Price Valuation Relative to Fundamentals Over-/undervaluation, relative to trend price, % Normalised interest rate* Region Today 21 National Australian Capital Territory Adelaide Brisbane Darwin Hobart Melbourne Perth Sydney Rest of New South Wales Rest of Queensland Rest of South Australia Rest of Victoria Rest of Western Australia *Interest rate environment based on RBA cash rate at 4.5% rose to 4.5%, Sydney house prices would be considered close to 2% Source: Moody s Analytics overvalued. House prices nationally would be considered 14.2% overvalued. Price growth would slow sharply, and house prices under normalised interest rates would languish around 4.5% below baseline levels (see Chart 11). 5 FEBRUARY 216

7 About the Authors Alaistair Chan is an economist in the Sydney office of Moody s Analytics. He covers national and metropolitan economic issues across the Asia-Pacific region. Alaistair received his degree in economics (honours) at the University of Western Australia, majoring in international trade. Faraz Syed is an associate economist in the Sydney office of Moody s Analytics. He covers national and metropolitan economic issues across the Asia-Pacific region. He previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resources, Economics and Sciences, where he was responsible for exchange rate forecasting and economic analysis on Australia s key trading partners. Faraz received his bachelor s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University and is working on his master s degree in econometrics.

8 About Moody s Analytics Moody s Analytics helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. With its team of economists, the company offers unique tools and best practices for measuring and managing risk through expertise and experience in credit analysis, economic research, and financial risk management. By offering leading-edge software and advisory services, as well as the proprietary credit research produced by Moody s Investors Service, Moody s Analytics integrates and customizes its offerings to address specific business challenges. Concise and timely economic research by Moody s Analytics supports firms and policymakers in strategic planning, product and sales forecasting, credit risk and sensitivity management, and investment research. Our economic research publications provide in-depth analysis of the global economy, including the U.S. and all of its state and metropolitan areas, all European countries and their subnational areas, Asia, and the Americas. We track and forecast economic growth and cover specialized topics such as labor markets, housing, consumer spending and credit, output and income, mortgage activity, demographics, central bank behavior, and prices. We also provide real-time monitoring of macroeconomic indicators and analysis on timely topics such as monetary policy and sovereign risk. Our clients include multinational corporations, governments at all levels, central banks, financial regulators, retailers, mutual funds, financial institutions, utilities, residential and commercial real estate firms, insurance companies, and professional investors. Moody s Analytics added the economic forecasting firm Economy.com to its portfolio in 25. This unit is based in West Chester PA, a suburb of Philadelphia, with offices in London, Prague and Sydney. More information is available at Moody s Analytics is a subsidiary of Moody s Corporation (NYSE: MCO). Further information is available at About Moody s Corporation Moody s is an essential component of the global capital markets, providing credit ratings, research, tools and analysis that contribute to transparent and integrated financial markets. Moody s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) is the parent company of Moody s Investors Service, which provides credit ratings and research covering debt instruments and securities, and Moody s Analytics, which encompasses the growing array of Moody s nonratings businesses, including risk management software for financial institutions, quantitative credit analysis tools, economic research and data services, data and analytical tools for the structured finance market, and training and other professional services. The corporation, which reported revenue of $3.5 billion in 215, employs approximately 1,4 people worldwide and maintains a presence in 36 countries. 216, Moody s Analytics Inc. and/or its licensors and affi liates (together, Moody s ). All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT MOODY S PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by Moody s from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human and mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. 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