RP Data Housing market update. October 2014

Transcription

1 RP Data Housing market update October 2014

2 Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth Source: RP Data, ASX, SPAA, PCA 2

3 Capital gain: Home values up 9.3% over past year, however the annual rate of growth is losing some momentum Rolling annual dwelling values, combined capital cities 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Median Prices $559,700 $470,000 Capital Gain Houses Units Dwellings Past 12 months 9.4% 8.1% 9.3% Annual over five years 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% Annual over ten years 4.8% 4.3% 4.7% 3 Source: RP Data

4 The vast majority of capital gain has been recorded across the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets 51.2% 46.0% 14.5% 10.9% 6.0% -1.6% Source: RP Data 4

5 Regional Qld: There has been moderate value growth across most regions, the exception being those linked to mining Houses Units Statistical Division Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Brisbane 0.8% 6.7% -0.2% -3.7% -0.7% 3.4% -0.5% -6.4% Gold Coast 0.4% 6.2% 0.2% -1.8% -0.9% -1.2% -2.1% -12.4% Sunshine Coast 0.9% 4.2% 0.4% -0.6% 0.6% 1.0% -1.6% -9.8% West Moreton 1.0% -1.2% -0.4% -4.7% 0.8% -1.4% -0.5% -5.3% Wide Bay-Burnett -0.4% 0.3% -1.1% -7.3% 3.1% 2.9% -0.4% -3.6% Darling Downs -2.0% 2.8% 2.5% -2.0% 12.1% 7.2% 0.3% -1.3% South West -3.0% 0.5% 1.8% -3.0% -3.0% 0.5% 1.8% -3.0% Fitzroy -0.6% -3.6% 1.6% -9.7% -0.6% -3.6% 1.5% -9.6% Central West -0.6% -3.3% 2.6% -10.0% -0.6% -3.3% 2.6% -10.0% Mackay -1.1% -4.6% 0.6% -9.3% -1.2% -4.6% 0.5% -9.3% Northern -1.1% -2.9% -1.2% -8.7% -0.4% -0.5% -3.0% -16.1% Far North -1.0% 4.0% 1.6% -1.0% -0.5% 2.0% -2.4% -13.9% North West -1.5% 2.5% 1.4% -2.0% -1.5% 2.5% 1.4% -2.0% 5

6 Brisbane: market has underperformed the combined capitals average since 2008 but is gathering some momentum 40.0% Rolling annual change in Brisbane dwelling values v. combined capitals benchmark 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Brisbane Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Median Prices $470,000 $380,000 Capital Gain Houses Units Dwellings Past 12 months 6.7% 3.4% 6.4% Annual over five years -0.2% -0.5% -0.2% Annual over ten years 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 6 Source: RP Data

7 Different regions different stages of the cycle Sydney 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Sydney Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep % 40.0% Perth 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Perth Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Melbourne 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Melbourne Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Hobart 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Hobart Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Adelaide 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Adelaide Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 7 Source: RP Data

8 A substantial pricing gap has opened up between Brisbane and the other largest capital city markets Pricing gap: Percentage difference between Brisbane / Sydney, Brisbane / Melbourne and Brisbane / Perth median house prices Source: RP Data 8

9 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Gold Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $515,000 7,235 Median price July 2013 $485,000 5,850 Median price July 2009 $481,000 6,417 Change over past year 6.2% 23.7% Change over 5 years 7.1% 12.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $355,000 9,648 Median price July 2013 $345,000 7,455 Median price July 2009 $360,000 8,618 Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 9,000 $600,000 8,000 7,000 $500,000 6,000 $400,000 5,000 4,000 $300,000 3,000 $200,000 2,000 1,000 $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year 2.9% 29.4% Change over 5 years -1.4% 12.0% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -5.6% Jul % -7.2% Jul % -7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 9

10 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Sunshine Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $475,000 5,220 Median price July 2013 $448,750 4,138 Median price July 2009 $455,000 4,313 Change over past year 5.8% 26.1% Change over 5 years 4.4% 21.0% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $345,000 3,019 Median price July 2013 $340,000 2,503 Median price July 2009 $345,000 2,298 Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 4,000 $600,000 3,500 $500,000 3,000 2,500 $400,000 2,000 $300,000 1,500 $200,000 1, $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year 1.5% 20.6% Change over 5 years 0.0% 31.4% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -5.1% Jul % -6.4% Jul % -6.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 10

11 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Cairns Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $378,000 2,621 Median price July 2013 $360,000 2,224 Median price July 2009 $360,000 2,486 Change over past year 5.0% 17.9% Change over 5 years 5.0% 5.4% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $215,000 1,387 Median price July 2013 $205,000 1,152 Median price July 2009 $254,000 1,563 Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 3,000 $400,000 2,500 $350,000 $300,000 2,000 $250,000 1,500 $200,000 1,000 $150,000 $100, $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year 4.9% 20.4% Change over 5 years -15.4% -11.3% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -5.7% Jul % -7.1% Jul % -7.8% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 11

12 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price but resource driven markets are doing it tough Isaac Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $280, Median price July 2013 $382, Median price July 2009 $400, Change over past year -26.8% -50.6% Change over 5 years -30.0% -76.8% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $250, Median price July 2013 $399, Median price July Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 350 $700, $600, $500, $400, $300, $200, $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Change over past year -37.3% -47.5% Change over 5 years 675.0% Median discount Houses Units Jul % 0.0% Jul % 0.0% Jul % 0.0% improving 0.0% Median vendor discount -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% worsening -25.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 12

13 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price but resource driven markets are doing it tough Mackay Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $416,000 1,395 Median price July 2013 $430,000 1,855 Median price July 2009 $390,000 2,065 Change over past year -3.3% -24.8% Change over 5 years 6.7% -32.4% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $305, Median price July 2013 $330, Median price July 2009 $295, Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 1,400 $500,000 1,200 $450,000 $400,000 1,000 $350, $300,000 $250, $200, $150, $100,000 $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year -7.6% -42.9% Change over 5 years 3.4% -46.0% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -9.9% Jul % -6.4% Jul % -6.3% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 13

14 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price but resource driven markets are doing it tough Gladstone Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $415, Median price July 2013 $452,250 1,047 Median price July 2009 $370, Change over past year -8.2% -18.5% Change over 5 years 12.2% -4.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $352, Median price July 2013 $415, Median price July 2009 $297, Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 700 $500, $450,000 $400, $350, $300,000 $250, $200, $150, $100,000 $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year -15.1% -61.6% Change over 5 years 18.5% 1.3% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -10.2% Jul % -6.9% Jul % -7.1% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% worsening -14.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 14

15 Turnover: buyer demand appears to be levelling, but transaction numbers are 9.8% higher than a year ago 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Monthly house and unit sales, national House sales (with 6 month moving avg) Unit sales (with 6 month moving avg) 5,000 Jul 94 Jul 99 Jul 04 Jul 09 Jul 14 Annual Sales YoY % change in sales, states and territories Year to July 2014 Year to July 2013 % change Houses 351, , % Units 140, , % Dwellings 487, , % 15 Source: RP Data

16 Turnover: NSW, Vic and WA transactions are trending lower while Qld, SA and Tas gather pace NSW QLD WA VIC SA TAS 16

17 Clearance rate Number of auctions Vendor metrics: clearance rates sitting at around 70% Weighted average clearance rate and number of auctions, combined capitals 90.0% 4, % 3, % 3, % 2, % 40.0% 2, % 1, % 1, % % 0 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Auction sales as a proportion of all sales Source: RP Data 17

18 Vendor metrics: selling time and discounting rates have risen slightly 0.0% Avg vendor discount, combined capitals -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug 14 Avg time on market, combined capitals Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug Source: RP Data

19 Rental markets are relatively soft while values rise Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values, combined capital cities Gross rental yields, combined capital cities Source: RP Data Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals Annual change in rental rates -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Houses Units 19 Combined capitals Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Gross rental yields 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Houses Units

20 Rental yields are being compressed across every capital city as capital gains outpace weekly rents Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values Sydney Adelaide Darwin Melbourne Perth Canberra Brisbane Hobart 20 Source: RP Data

21 Aussies are less confident which is likely to dampen buyer demand Consumer sentiment index Consumer sentiment vs transaction numbers Annual change in consumer sentiment v dwelling values 21

22 Mortgage market conditions 22

23 Mortgage demand: Growth in housing finance demand has softened but remains high across the investor sector Annual change in value of housing finance commitments, owner occupier loans v investment loans +27.6% +10.3% Source: RP Data, ABS 23

24 Overall housing credit is growing at a modest pace and high LVR lending has moderated since 2009 Annual growth in value of outstanding housing loans to all ADI's Credit growth remains tame despite the pick up in housing market conditions as many home owners focus on paying down debt. New mortgages by LVR category over time 33.8% of new loans issued over the June quarter showed an LVR of 80% or higher; well below the recent 2009 peak of 37.6% Source: RP Data, ABS 24

25 Mortgagee s are paying down debt faster than what is required with very low proportion of arrears According to the Reserve Bank, the aggregate mortgage buffer (based on balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities) has risen to be around 15% of outstanding balances, which is equivalent to more than 2 years of scheduled payments at current interest rates. Arrears rates remain well below 1% for housing loans and are trending lower Source: RBA 25

26 Households continue high rate of savings, but housing debt relative to income has moved to a historic high Household savings ratio Housing debt to housing assets ratio Housing debt to disposable income ratio Source: RP Data, APRA, ABS 26

27 Valuation disputes less than 3% of all valuations Source: RP Data 27

28 Most disputes are resolved without a change in the valuation Source: RP Data 28

29 The largest increases in valuation activity over past year have been across the Brisbane market Source: RP Data 29

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