RP Data Housing market update. October 2014

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1 RP Data Housing market update October 2014

2 Residential real estate underpins Australia's wealth Source: RP Data, ASX, SPAA, PCA 2

3 Capital gain: Home values up 9.3% over past year, however the annual rate of growth is losing some momentum Rolling annual dwelling values, combined capital cities 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Median Prices $559,700 $470,000 Capital Gain Houses Units Dwellings Past 12 months 9.4% 8.1% 9.3% Annual over five years 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% Annual over ten years 4.8% 4.3% 4.7% 3 Source: RP Data

4 The vast majority of capital gain has been recorded across the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets 51.2% 46.0% 14.5% 10.9% 6.0% -1.6% Source: RP Data 4

5 Regional Qld: There has been moderate value growth across most regions, the exception being those linked to mining Houses Units Statistical Division Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Qtr Annual 5 yr From peak Brisbane 0.8% 6.7% -0.2% -3.7% -0.7% 3.4% -0.5% -6.4% Gold Coast 0.4% 6.2% 0.2% -1.8% -0.9% -1.2% -2.1% -12.4% Sunshine Coast 0.9% 4.2% 0.4% -0.6% 0.6% 1.0% -1.6% -9.8% West Moreton 1.0% -1.2% -0.4% -4.7% 0.8% -1.4% -0.5% -5.3% Wide Bay-Burnett -0.4% 0.3% -1.1% -7.3% 3.1% 2.9% -0.4% -3.6% Darling Downs -2.0% 2.8% 2.5% -2.0% 12.1% 7.2% 0.3% -1.3% South West -3.0% 0.5% 1.8% -3.0% -3.0% 0.5% 1.8% -3.0% Fitzroy -0.6% -3.6% 1.6% -9.7% -0.6% -3.6% 1.5% -9.6% Central West -0.6% -3.3% 2.6% -10.0% -0.6% -3.3% 2.6% -10.0% Mackay -1.1% -4.6% 0.6% -9.3% -1.2% -4.6% 0.5% -9.3% Northern -1.1% -2.9% -1.2% -8.7% -0.4% -0.5% -3.0% -16.1% Far North -1.0% 4.0% 1.6% -1.0% -0.5% 2.0% -2.4% -13.9% North West -1.5% 2.5% 1.4% -2.0% -1.5% 2.5% 1.4% -2.0% 5

6 Brisbane: market has underperformed the combined capitals average since 2008 but is gathering some momentum 40.0% Rolling annual change in Brisbane dwelling values v. combined capitals benchmark 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Brisbane Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Median Prices $470,000 $380,000 Capital Gain Houses Units Dwellings Past 12 months 6.7% 3.4% 6.4% Annual over five years -0.2% -0.5% -0.2% Annual over ten years 3.5% 3.7% 3.5% 6 Source: RP Data

7 Different regions different stages of the cycle Sydney 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Sydney Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep % 40.0% Perth 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Perth Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Melbourne 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Melbourne Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Hobart 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Hobart Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 Adelaide 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Combined capital cities Adelaide Sep 98 Sep 00 Sep 02 Sep 04 Sep 06 Sep 08 Sep 10 Sep 12 Sep 14 7 Source: RP Data

8 A substantial pricing gap has opened up between Brisbane and the other largest capital city markets Pricing gap: Percentage difference between Brisbane / Sydney, Brisbane / Melbourne and Brisbane / Perth median house prices Source: RP Data 8

9 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Gold Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $515,000 7,235 Median price July 2013 $485,000 5,850 Median price July 2009 $481,000 6,417 Change over past year 6.2% 23.7% Change over 5 years 7.1% 12.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $355,000 9,648 Median price July 2013 $345,000 7,455 Median price July 2009 $360,000 8,618 Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 9,000 $600,000 8,000 7,000 $500,000 6,000 $400,000 5,000 4,000 $300,000 3,000 $200,000 2,000 1,000 $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year 2.9% 29.4% Change over 5 years -1.4% 12.0% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -5.6% Jul % -7.2% Jul % -7.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 9

10 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Sunshine Coast Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $475,000 5,220 Median price July 2013 $448,750 4,138 Median price July 2009 $455,000 4,313 Change over past year 5.8% 26.1% Change over 5 years 4.4% 21.0% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $345,000 3,019 Median price July 2013 $340,000 2,503 Median price July 2009 $345,000 2,298 Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 4,000 $600,000 3,500 $500,000 3,000 2,500 $400,000 2,000 $300,000 1,500 $200,000 1, $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year 1.5% 20.6% Change over 5 years 0.0% 31.4% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -5.1% Jul % -6.4% Jul % -6.6% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 10

11 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price Lifestyle markets are bouncing back Cairns Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $378,000 2,621 Median price July 2013 $360,000 2,224 Median price July 2009 $360,000 2,486 Change over past year 5.0% 17.9% Change over 5 years 5.0% 5.4% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $215,000 1,387 Median price July 2013 $205,000 1,152 Median price July 2009 $254,000 1,563 Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 3,000 $400,000 2,500 $350,000 $300,000 2,000 $250,000 1,500 $200,000 1,000 $150,000 $100, $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year 4.9% 20.4% Change over 5 years -15.4% -11.3% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -5.7% Jul % -7.1% Jul % -7.8% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 11

12 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price but resource driven markets are doing it tough Isaac Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $280, Median price July 2013 $382, Median price July 2009 $400, Change over past year -26.8% -50.6% Change over 5 years -30.0% -76.8% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $250, Median price July 2013 $399, Median price July Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 350 $700, $600, $500, $400, $300, $200, $100,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Change over past year -37.3% -47.5% Change over 5 years 675.0% Median discount Houses Units Jul % 0.0% Jul % 0.0% Jul % 0.0% improving 0.0% Median vendor discount -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% worsening -25.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 12

13 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price but resource driven markets are doing it tough Mackay Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $416,000 1,395 Median price July 2013 $430,000 1,855 Median price July 2009 $390,000 2,065 Change over past year -3.3% -24.8% Change over 5 years 6.7% -32.4% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $305, Median price July 2013 $330, Median price July 2009 $295, Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 1,400 $500,000 1,200 $450,000 $400,000 1,000 $350, $300,000 $250, $200, $150, $100,000 $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year -7.6% -42.9% Change over 5 years 3.4% -46.0% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -9.9% Jul % -6.4% Jul % -6.3% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% worsening -12.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 13

14 Number of sales (rolling 3 month) Median selling price but resource driven markets are doing it tough Gladstone Council region HOUSES Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $415, Median price July 2013 $452,250 1,047 Median price July 2009 $370, Change over past year -8.2% -18.5% Change over 5 years 12.2% -4.7% UNITS Median price Num sales (year) Median price July 2014 $352, Median price July 2013 $415, Median price July 2009 $297, Median house and unit price and number of sales over time 700 $500, $450,000 $400, $350, $300,000 $250, $200, $150, $100,000 $50,000 0 $0 Jul 94 Jul 96 Jul 98 Jul 00 Jul 02 Jul 04 Jul 06 Jul 08 Jul 10 Jul 12 Jul 14 Median unit price (RHS) Number of sales (rolling 3 month) (LHS) Median house price (RHS) Change over past year -15.1% -61.6% Change over 5 years 18.5% 1.3% Median discount Houses Units Jul % -10.2% Jul % -6.9% Jul % -7.1% Median vendor discount improving 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Houses Units -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% worsening -14.0% Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Median selling time Houses Units Jul Jul Jul worsening improving Median days on market Houses Units Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul 14 14

15 Turnover: buyer demand appears to be levelling, but transaction numbers are 9.8% higher than a year ago 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Monthly house and unit sales, national House sales (with 6 month moving avg) Unit sales (with 6 month moving avg) 5,000 Jul 94 Jul 99 Jul 04 Jul 09 Jul 14 Annual Sales YoY % change in sales, states and territories Year to July 2014 Year to July 2013 % change Houses 351, , % Units 140, , % Dwellings 487, , % 15 Source: RP Data

16 Turnover: NSW, Vic and WA transactions are trending lower while Qld, SA and Tas gather pace NSW QLD WA VIC SA TAS 16

17 Clearance rate Number of auctions Vendor metrics: clearance rates sitting at around 70% Weighted average clearance rate and number of auctions, combined capitals 90.0% 4, % 3, % 3, % 2, % 40.0% 2, % 1, % 1, % % 0 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Auction sales as a proportion of all sales Source: RP Data 17

18 Vendor metrics: selling time and discounting rates have risen slightly 0.0% Avg vendor discount, combined capitals -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug 14 Avg time on market, combined capitals Aug 06 Aug 08 Aug 10 Aug 12 Aug Source: RP Data

19 Rental markets are relatively soft while values rise Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values, combined capital cities Gross rental yields, combined capital cities Source: RP Data Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Combined capitals Annual change in rental rates -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Houses Units 19 Combined capitals Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth Hobart Darwin Canberra Gross rental yields 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Houses Units

20 Rental yields are being compressed across every capital city as capital gains outpace weekly rents Annual change in dwelling rents and dwelling values Sydney Adelaide Darwin Melbourne Perth Canberra Brisbane Hobart 20 Source: RP Data

21 Aussies are less confident which is likely to dampen buyer demand Consumer sentiment index Consumer sentiment vs transaction numbers Annual change in consumer sentiment v dwelling values 21

22 Mortgage market conditions 22

23 Mortgage demand: Growth in housing finance demand has softened but remains high across the investor sector Annual change in value of housing finance commitments, owner occupier loans v investment loans +27.6% +10.3% Source: RP Data, ABS 23

24 Overall housing credit is growing at a modest pace and high LVR lending has moderated since 2009 Annual growth in value of outstanding housing loans to all ADI's Credit growth remains tame despite the pick up in housing market conditions as many home owners focus on paying down debt. New mortgages by LVR category over time 33.8% of new loans issued over the June quarter showed an LVR of 80% or higher; well below the recent 2009 peak of 37.6% Source: RP Data, ABS 24

25 Mortgagee s are paying down debt faster than what is required with very low proportion of arrears According to the Reserve Bank, the aggregate mortgage buffer (based on balances in mortgage offset and redraw facilities) has risen to be around 15% of outstanding balances, which is equivalent to more than 2 years of scheduled payments at current interest rates. Arrears rates remain well below 1% for housing loans and are trending lower Source: RBA 25

26 Households continue high rate of savings, but housing debt relative to income has moved to a historic high Household savings ratio Housing debt to housing assets ratio Housing debt to disposable income ratio Source: RP Data, APRA, ABS 26

27 Valuation disputes less than 3% of all valuations Source: RP Data 27

28 Most disputes are resolved without a change in the valuation Source: RP Data 28

29 The largest increases in valuation activity over past year have been across the Brisbane market Source: RP Data 29

30 About Us RP Data is a wholly owned subsidiary of CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. Regionally RP Data is part of CoreLogic Asia which is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. With Australia s most comprehensive property databases, the company s combined data offering is derived from public, contributory and proprietary sources and includes over 500 million decision points spanning over three decades of collection, providing detailed coverage of property and other encumbrances such as tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. With over 11,000 customers and 120,000 end users, RP Data is the leading provider of property data, analytics and related services to consumers, investors, real estate, mortgage, finance, banking, insurance, developers, wealth management and government. RP Data delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and geo spatial services. Clients rely on RP Data to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. CoreLogic Asia employs over 500 people at nine locations across Australia and in New Zealand. For more information call or visit 30

31 In compiling this publication, RP Data has relied upon information supplied by a number of external sources. The publication is supplied on the basis that while the RP Data believes all the information in it is deemed reliable at the time of publication, it does not warrant its accuracy or completeness and to the full extent allowed by law excludes liability in contract, tort or otherwise, for any loss or damage sustained by subscribers, or by any other person or body corporate arising from or in connection with the supply or use of the whole or any part of the information in this publication through any cause whatsoever and limits any liability it may have to the amount paid to RP Data for the supply of such information. This data cannot be reproduced without the permission of RP Data. Queensland Data The State of Queensland (Department of Environment and Resource Management) Based on data provided with the permission of the Department of Natural Resources and Mines: [QVAS 2014)]. The Department of Environment and Resource Management makes no representations or warranties about accuracy, reliability, completeness or suitability of the data for any particular purpose and disclaims all responsibility and all liability (including without limitation, liability in negligence) for all expenses, losses and damages (including indirect or consequential damage) and costs which might be incurred as a result of the data being inaccurate or incomplete in any way and for any reason. South Australian Data This information is based on data supplied by the South Australian Government and is published by permission. The South Australian Government does not accept any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the published information or suitability for any purpose of the published information or the underlying data. New South Wales Data Contains property sales information provided under licence from the Land and Property Information ( LPI ). RP Data is authorised as a Property Sales Information provider by the LPI. Victorian Data To the extent that this report has been developed using information owned by the State of Victoria, the State of Victoria owns the copyright in the Property Sales Data which constitutes the basis of this report and reproduction of that data in any way without the consent of the State of Victoria will constitute a breach of the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth). The State of Victoria does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report and any person using or relying upon such information does so on the basis that the State of Victoria accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any errors, faults, defects or omissions in the information supplied. Western Australian Data Based on information provided by and with the permission of the Western Australian Land Information Authority (2014) trading as Landgate. Australian Capital Territory Data The Territory Data is the property of the Australian Capital Territory. No part of it may in any form or by any means (electronic, mechanical, microcopying, photocopying, recording or otherwise) be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted without prior written permission. Enquiries should be directed to: Director, Customer Services ACT Planning and Land Authority GPO Box 1908 Canberra ACT Tasmanian Data This product incorporates data that is copyright owned by the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The data has been used in the product with the permission of the Crown in Right of Tasmania. The Crown in Right of Tasmania and its employees and agents: a) give no warranty regarding the data's accuracy, completeness, currency or suitability for any particular purpose; and b) do not accept liability howsoever arising, including but not limited to negligence for any loss resulting from the use of or reliance upon the data. Base data from the LIST State of Tasmania Veda credit demand disclaimer Purpose of Veda Indices releases: Veda Indices releases are intended as a contemporary contribution to data and commentary in relation to credit activity in the Australian economy. The information in this release does not constitute legal, accounting or other professional financial advice. The information may change and Veda does not guarantee its currency, accuracy or completeness, and you should rely on your own analysis and applications. Veda has relied on third party information in compiling the Indices and has not been able to independently verify the accuracy of that information. To the extent permitted by law, Veda specifically excludes all liability or responsibility for any loss or damage arising out of reliance on information in this release and the data in this report, including any consequential or indirect loss, loss of profit, loss of revenue or loss of business opportunity. 31

32 It s about tangible results for property professionals everyday. For further information about RP Data s products and services, please contact: Robert Castorina, State Sales Manager QLD M: E: W: 32

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