Residential Property Prospects

Transcription

1 Residential Property Prospects Extract to indicate the general nature of the report

2 BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited June 2015 The information contained in this report is the property of BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited and is confidential. All rights reserved. No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form, nor may any part of or any information contained in this report be distributed or disclosed to any person who is not a full time employee of the Subscriber without the prior written consent of BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited. The Subscriber agrees to take all reasonable measures to safeguard this confidentiality. Subscribers may not, under any circumstances, use information in this report for promotional purposes. Note: Although great care has been taken to ensure accuracy and completeness in this project, BIS Shrapnel Pty Ltd has not independently verified, and does not accept responsibility for, the completeness and accuracy of the factual information on which its opinions and assumptions are based, which information has been derived from public authorities or government bodies. Job No: R6201/AZ/sf BIS Shrapnel contact: Angie Zigomanis BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited Level 40, Rialto South Tower 525 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 Australia T: +61 (03) F: +61 (03) Acknowledgement This report was prepared by Angie Zigomanis, Andrew Raponi and Jodi Birch, with assistance from Robert Mellor. Administrative support was provided by Sylvia Foo.

3 Contents Residential Property Prospects Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... III 1. INTRODUCTION Objective Cautionary note In this report Data sources for prices Use of median house prices Real house price THE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY INVESTMENT CYCLE The upturn The boom The bust Stagnation The Australian cycle UNDERLYING DEMAND FOR DWELLINGS Population growth Net overseas migration Net interstate migration New dwelling supply Outlook for underlying demand, dwelling construction and stock deficiency/excess ECONOMIC AND MARKET CONDITIONS Australian economic outlook Housing interest rates Government policies affecting residential building Federal Government State Governments Housing finance Home loans for owner occupation Residential rental property vacancy rates Median house rents BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

4 Residential Property Prospects Contents 4.7 Median unit rents Rental yields Houses Rental yields Units PRICE FORECASTS BY CAPITAL CITY National trends History Long term to 2007 The residential boom After the Global Financial Crisis Current market conditions Housing affordability Longer term trends The impact of foreign investment Sydney residential prices History of the Sydney residential cycle Current conditions in the Sydney residential market Sydney residential price forecasts Newcastle residential prices History of the Newcastle residential cycle Current conditions in the Newcastle residential market Newcastle residential price forecasts Wollongong residential prices History of the Wollongong residential market Current conditions in the Wollongong residential market Wollongong residential price forecasts Melbourne residential prices History of the Melbourne residential cycle Current conditions in the Melbourne residential market Melbourne residential price forecasts Brisbane residential prices History of the Brisbane residential cycle Current conditions in the Brisbane residential market Brisbane residential price forecasts Gold Coast residential property prices History of the Gold Coast residential cycle Current conditions in the Gold Coast residential market Gold Coast residential price forecasts Sunshine Coast residential prices History of the Sunshine Coast residential cycle Current conditions in the Sunshine Coast residential market Sunshine Coast residential price forecasts BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

5 Contents Residential Property Prospects Townsville residential prices History of the Townsville residential cycle Current conditions in the Townsville residential market Townsville residential price forecasts Cairns residential prices History of the Cairns residential cycle Current conditions in the Cairns residential market Cairns residential price forecasts Adelaide residential prices History of the Adelaide residential cycle Current conditions in the Adelaide residential market Adelaide residential price forecasts Perth residential prices History of the Perth residential cycle Current conditions in the Perth residential market Perth residential price forecasts Hobart residential prices History of the Hobart residential cycle Current conditions in the Hobart residential market Hobart residential price forecasts Canberra residential prices History of the Canberra residential building cycle Current conditions in the Canberra residential market Canberra residential price forecasts Darwin residential prices History of the Darwin residential building cycle Current conditions in the Darwin residential market Darwin residential price forecasts INVESTMENT STRATEGIES Counter cyclical investment strategy BIS Shrapnel forecast record APPENDIX... A1 BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

6 Residential Property Prospects List of Tables List of Tables Table I: Deficiency of Stock, Building Activity and Forecast Median House and Unit Price... iv Table II: Median House Prices by Capital City Quarterly... xvi Table II: Median Unit Prices by Capital City Quarterly... xvii Table 3.1: Underlying Demand for Dwellings and Dwelling Commencements Table 4.1: Current State Government home buyer incentives Table 4.2: Number of Loans Approved for Owner Occupation % Change Table 4.3: Number of Loans to First Home Buyers Table 4.4: Value of Investment Loans for the Purchase of Property for Rent/Resale Table 5.1: Foreign investment in residential real estate by type and number of proposals Table 5.2: Sydney Residential Property Prices Quarterly Median Table 5.3: Sydney Median Property Prices by region Table 5.4: Newcastle Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.5: Wollongong Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.6: Melbourne Residential Property Prices Quarterly Median Table 5.7: Melbourne Median Property Prices by region Table 5.8: Brisbane Residential Property prices, Quarterly Median Table 5.9: Brisbane Median Property Prices by region Table 5.10: Gold Coast Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.11: Sunshine Coast Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.12: Townsville Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.13: Cairns Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.14: Adelaide Residential Property Prices Quarterly Median Table 5.15: Adelaide Median Property Prices by region Table 5.16: Perth Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.17: Perth Median Property Prices by region Table 5.18: Hobart Residential Property Prices Quarterly Median Table 5.19: Hobart Median Property Prices by region Table 5.20: Canberra Residential Property Prices, Quarterly Medians Table 5.21: Darwin Residential Property Prices Quarterly Medians Table 5.22: Darwin Median Property Prices by region Table A1: Total Population, by State ( 000)... A3 Table A2: Net Overseas Migration ( 000)... A4 Table A3: Net interstate migration by state ( 000)... A5 Table A4: Residential rental vacancy rates (%)... A6 Table A5: Median Weekly Rental Rate for 3 Bedroom Houses ($)... A7 Table A6: Median Weekly Rental Rate for 2 Bedroom Units ($)... A8 Table A7: Indicative House Rental Yields* in State Capitals (%)... A9 Table A8: Indicative Unit Rental Yields* in State Capitals (%)... A10 BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

7 List of Charts Residential Property Prospects List of Charts Chart I: The Residential Property Cycle Nominal and Real House Prices and Dwelling Commencements... xi Chart II: The Residential Property Cycle Nominal and Real House Prices and Dwelling Commencements... xii Chart 2.1: The Property Investment Cycle Chart 2.2: The Property Investment Cycle Australian Example Chart 2.3: Chart 2.4: Underlying demand and supply, dwelling deficiency and price growth, Australia, 1991 to Underlying demand and supply, dwelling deficiency and price growth, Australia ex NSW, 1991 to Chart 3.1: Population growth and components, Australia Chart 3.2: Population growth, states and territories Chart 3.3: Net overseas migration by state Chart 3.4: Long Term Overseas Migration Movements (Moving Annual Totals) Chart 3.5: Net interstate migration by state Chart 3.6: Annual new dwelling commencements by dwelling type by state Chart 3.7: Dwelling Stock Deficiency/Stock Excess Chart 3.8: Underlying demand, dwelling completions, stock deficiency/excess, States Chart 4.1: Key Economic Indicators Chart 4.2: Cash rate and standard variable rate, 1982 to Chart 4.3: Annual percentage change in number of loans for owner occupation, Australia Chart 4.4: Number of first home buyer loans by state Chart 4.5: Share of Total Residential Finance Attributed to Residential investment Chart 4.6: Share of Total Residential Finance Attributed to Residential investment Chart 4.7: Median weekly rental rate for 3 bedroom houses Chart 4.8: Median weekly rental rate for 2 bedroom units Chart 4.9: Indicative rental yields, Houses Chart 4.10: Indicative rental yields, Units Chart 5.1: Home loan affordability Monthly mortgage repayments (as a percentage of average disposable income per household) Chart 5.2: Growth in population by age, Australia, 1994 to Chart 5.3: Share of households in dwelling types by age of household reference person, Combined 5 capital cities, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth Chart 5.4: Sydney Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.5: Change in value of NSW Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Chart 5.6: Melbourne Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.7: Chart 5.8: Change in value of VIC Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Change in value of QLD Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

8 Residential Property Prospects List of Charts Chart 5.9: Brisbane Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.10: Adelaide Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.11: Change in value of SA Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Chart 5.12: Change in value of WA Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Chart 5.13: Perth Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.14: Hobart Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.15: Change in value of TAS Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Chart 5.16: Change in value of ACT Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Chart 5.17: Canberra Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.18: Darwin Dwellings Prices and Activity Chart 5.19: Change in value of NT Housing Finance Approvals by Purchaser Segment, All Dwellings Chart 6.1: Comparison of average annual median house price growth (%) forecast in each of BIS Shrapnel s reports versus actual median house price over the three year period, Australia BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

9 Introduction Residential Property Prospects INTRODUCTION Residential property constitutes the major investment for most Australians, and is the largest sector of the property market. As at December 2014, the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimated that residential property in Australia had a total value of over $5,400 billion, comprising around 9.45 million dwellings. It is a market which offers enormous opportunity for both capital appreciation and income generation. While residential property markets are complex, to the informed participant, they are understandable. These markets are affected by many factors, some short run and some more fundamental. 1.1 Objective The objective of this report is to provide price forecasts for the next three years for residential property in Australian capital cities. In doing so, information, data and analysis, which will help an investor understand movements in residential property markets, as well as the reasons for those movements, are also provided. The fundamentals of demand and supply are used to forecast movements in property values, assuming likely economic conditions. The report includes a discussion of the residential building and property investment cycle, the oversupply or undersupply of dwelling stock, interest rates, rental vacancy rates, home loan affordability, private dwelling rents and residential property values. For Sydney and Melbourne, historical data on median house values from the 1960s is included, while in the other main state capitals, the series begins in the late 1970s. It is important for investors to have a good understanding of past movements in property values in order to understand future trends. 1.2 Cautionary note There are many uncertainties in forecasting and many factors can affect the timing of movements in the market. For example, changes in Government policies or interest rates can affect the timing and magnitude of cycles in property values. They can delay an upturn or precipitate a downturn. At the same time, such short run factors are notoriously difficult to predict with precision. Sentiment can also take time to turn, despite positive fundamentals. Therefore, the forecasts in this report should be taken to be indicative of market directions. Investment in residential property should have a time horizon of at least three to five years, so that investors are not forced to take premature action. To minimise risk in residential investment, it is necessary to ensure that the investment horizon is long enough to allow time for the fundamentals of the market to come through. 1.3 In this report This report is intended to provide not only price forecasts, but also a better insight into the factors affecting residential property markets in Australian capital cities. The following information is included: The discussion of the residential building and investment cycle places market developments into a longer term perspective and outlines the four phases of the cycle. The analysis of the underlying demand looks at the drivers of demand for dwellings in the longer term to determine whether a sufficient number of dwellings are being built. This forms the basis for the direction and magnitude of the next major cycle. BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited

10 Residential Property Prospects Introduction The discussion of the economic outlook looks at short run factors affecting residential property markets, in particular the timing of movements in interest rates and its effect on the affordability of housing. The chapter on price forecasts is the bottom line in this report and contains analysis and forecasts of property values (both median house price and unit price) in Sydney, Newcastle, Wollongong, Melbourne, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Townsville, Cairns, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin. Constant price or real data is used to illustrate the strong relationship between prices and building activity through the residential building investment cycle, as illustrated at the end of Chapter 2 (see Chart 2.1). 1.4 Data sources for prices There have been numerous examples of the residential building investment cycle in Australia. Historically, BIS Shrapnel collected data on median house prices in Sydney and Melbourne through the late 1960s and 1970s. From the late 1970s, quarterly median house prices across the major capital cities was sourced from the state Real Estate Institutes (REIs), drawn from sales of established houses collated from surveys of real estate agents of the REI of each state. Ultimately, this data has been collated from the states and published by the Real Estate Institute of Australia. More recently, the advent of online real estate portals have also allowed more detailed real time property sales data to be collected as dwellings are sold, with the sale recorded as the property is taken down from the portal. Since the late 1990s, the data sources from the REIs have been broadened to include a complete listing from the Valuer General or the equivalent in each state of sales of all houses. As the Valuer General s data is only collated and processed at settlement, recently contacted sales are often not yet settled when median house prices are published for the quarter. Consequently, the sales data is typically supplemented by sales sourced from the REI agents, or the managers of the real estate portal, to broaden the sample. However, the Valuer General data is the only comprehensive source of sales, and historical medians are often revised later the sales returns from the Valuer General that haven t yet been accounted for eventually come in. Forecasts of median house and unit prices to June 2018 are provided for each capital city as an indicator of the magnitude and direction of residential price growth if both the house and unit markets. 1.5 Use of median house prices Previous editions of Residential Property Prospects have used movement in the median house price in this report as an indicator of change in residential values. Research by the Reserve Bank of Australia comparing various published price growth measures has indicated that there is very little difference in long run average growth. Nevertheless, as the mid point of a collection of sales, the median house price can be influenced in the short term by fluctuations in the market that impact on the composition of sales in a period. For example, a first home buyer incentive may stimulate activity at the lower end of the market, thereby increasing the share of lower priced sales and reducing the median. Conversely, as first home buyers leave the market once the incentive is removed, higher priced properties take up a disproportionately higher share of sales and the median moves higher. The compositional impact of sales on the median house price can be an issue and has been evident in the Melbourne market through this upturn. Sales activity and price growth has been concentrated in the inner and middle suburbs, where values are higher. Melbourne also has a higher level of auction sales than the other capitals, for which the sale is reported in a timelier 4 BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited 2015

11 Introduction Residential Property Prospects manner. The upshot is that the median is likely to be overstated overall, and subject to downward revision as non auction sales (which are typically higher value) are subsequently reported. A number of measures of house and unit prices are now being used to measure residential price growth that remove some of these compositional factors, including hedonic indices, repeat sales indices, stratified indices and stratified medians. BIS Shrapnel s measure used in this report; the weighted median house price and weighted median unit price also looks to overcome the compositional factors by weighting regional medians within a city by the number of dwellings to ensure that geographically disproportionate sales volumes do not impact on the price series. The source data is drawn from APM PriceFinder, which sources its sales data from the Domain sales portal and the state Valuer General s offices, BIS Shrapnel s weighted series begins in the mid 1980s in most cities, and we have indexed earlier data from the Real Estate Institute and BIS Shrapnel s own series from earlier years to extend the time series from which to measure long term trends and to compare previous cycles in which to place the current market in context. In the cast of Sydney and Melbourne, the series begins in the 1960s, while in most other capitals, the data starts from the late 1970s/early 1980s. 1.6 Real house price The series marked Real House Price and Real Unit Price in Chapter 5 is an index of the median price divided by the Consumer Price Index. This provides the median house price in constant dollar terms (in this case in 2013 dollars) and gives an indication of the movements in the real price of housing over the period under review. It also provides an indication of the real capital gains associated with investment in dwellings. However, it should be noted that the median price also incorporates improvements in the quality of housing (which then feeds through to a higher house price upon sale) and therefore overstates the real price change in those dwellings which are not upgraded over time. BIS Shrapnel Pty Limited

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