Macro trends in asset management flows

Transcription

1 Macro trends in asset management flows Trends & Morningstar Fund Summit 26 February 2014

2 Key concepts on asset managers valuation The value of an asset manager can be defined as the net present value of the dividend/revenues it generates Revenues are derived from the fees on asset under management Unless increasing the relative amount of fees, there are 2 drivers that an asset manager can do to perform better than its peers: Improving the relative performance (alpha generation) Attracting more investors flows Page 2

3 Data sources / scope EY Global Fund Distribution (GFD) enables asset managers to generate analysis and perspective on fund flows and net asset trends EY GFD is supplied with Morningstar data Page 3

4 Bubble chart legend Bubble size Bubble size indicates the size of the market. Bubble color The color indicates the annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 4

5 UCITS distributed in the World North America Central America South America Australia and Oceania No significant growth in Europe with regard to new net flows Asia is second most important market for UCITS distribution Middle East Asia Africa Europe The color indicates the annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Bubble size indicates the size of the market. Page 5

6 UCITS distributed in the World Ex Europe Asia NA CAY Middle East South America Africa Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 6

7 UCITS distributed in Asia 2013 KOR TWN JPN MO HKG SGP Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 7

8 UCITS distributed in Asia 2012 KOR TWN JPN MO HKG SGP Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 8

9 UCITS distributed in Asia 2011 KOR TWN JPN HKG MO SGP Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 9

10 Asian market Hong Kong fund flows in 2013 USD millions Hong Kong Flows per domicile in 2013 Other LUX domiciled Ireland domiciled Domestic /13 02/13 03/13 04/13 05/13 06/13 07/13 08/13 09/13 10/13 11/13 12/13 Page 10

11 Funds distributed in Latin America MEX CYM BM BH VG CU VC EC CO PE BRA CHL AR Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 11

12 UCITS distributed in Latin America COL PE CHL Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 12

13 Funds distributed in North America CAN USA Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 13

14 UCITS distributed in the Middle East TUR BHR KWT ARE QAT OMN Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area Page 14

15 UCITS distributed in Europe NOR SWE FI GBR DNK IRL BE NLD PL LUX DEU CZ FRA CHE AUT HU Annual growth <-9% 9% -5% -1% 1% 5% >9% Growth indicates the net flow in 2013 in relation to the net assets sold to investors in the defined area PT ESP ITA GR Page 15

16 Net flow (USD billion) European market Local vs. Cross-Border fund flows per country 30 Net flows per country of distribution Local vs. Cross-Border funds Cross-Border funds ex Cross-Border funds -40 DEU FRA GBR CHE ITA ESP SWE LUX NLD IRL AUT NOR DNK BEL FIN PRT Country of distribution Page 16

17 UCITS market share per asset class Comparison end of 2011 and 2013 Comparing the market share per asset class of all UCITS funds at the end of 2013 with the corresponding figures at the end of 2011, we see an increasing importance of equity funds. Allocation funds and fixed income also gained. Money market funds suffered most. 16% UCITS market share per asset class 5% 10% Equity 9% 6% Fixed Income Money Market 39% 35% Allocation 21% Others 29% 30% Inner circle: 12/2011 Outer circle: 12/2013 Page 17

18 UCITS market share per SRRI class Comparison end of 2011, 2012, 2013 In the last three years funds with SRRI class of six further increased their assets under management as well as their market share. SRRI class 1 funds stayed flat in terms of AuM development leading to a decreasing importance 7 Market share per SRRI class 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 1 2 5% 0% Market share 12/2013 Market share 12/2012 Market share 12/2011 Page 18

19 UCITS asset classes Net assets, net flow, growth Bubble size: relative market size of the strategy X-Axis: Net flow in 2013 Y-Axis: Growth = net flow in 2013 over net assets 30% 20% 10% Growth (relative to net assets) 0% Net flow in 2013 (USD billions) Allocation -10% Alternative Commodities Convertibles -20% Equity Fixed Income Guaranteed -30% Money Market Page 19

20 UCITS investment strategies Net assets, net flow, growth Allocation and equity strategies performed best in terms of relative (growth) and absolute (net flow) growth. Money market and fixed income strategies can be mainly found on the other end of the scale 90% 70% 50% Asia equity Long/short equity Allocation Alternative Commodities Equity Fixed Income Guaranteed Money Market 30% Growth (relative to net assets) % Euro MM US MM UK Equity Large Cap 10% -30% High Yield Fixed Income -50% Net flow in 2013 (USD billions) Page 20

21 Top 10 UCITS strategies In terms of net flow 01/ /2013 Riskier strategies have been more successful in 2013 in attracting new money from investors. Most strategies can be allocated to equity or balanced funds High Yield Fixed Income Cautious Allocation Europe Equity Large Cap Europe Equity Mid/Small Cap Global Equity Large Cap Flexible Allocation Top 10 UCITS strategies - Net flow 2013 Convertibles Moderate Allocation Allocation Other Asia Equity USD billions Page 21

22 Top 10 UCITS strategies In terms of net flow 01/ /2013 Less riskier strategies like money market and fixed income suffered the most significant outflows in the last year Bottom 10 UCITS strategies - Net flow 2013 Euro Money Market US Money Market UK Equity Large Cap Other Fixed Income US Fixed Income Sterling Fixed Income Euro Fixed Income Guaranteed Other Europe Money Market Inflation Linked USD billions Page 22

23 USD billions UCITS: new funds vs. old funds Flows 01/ /2013 per year of inception Aggregating the net flows of 2013 of all funds launched in one year, the recent years clearly show a positive trend Older funds with year of inception 2007 or earlier recorded an outflow. The trend is the same for non-ucits UCITS net flow 2013 per inception year < Page 23

24 Conclusions It is important to understand market dynamics to position adequately products in terms of Investment strategies Type of legal structure Types of targeted investors Distribution channels Investors appetite varies by countries of distribution There is a premium for new products. Innovation and understanding investors needs are key Page 24

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