Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy?

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1 Remarks at 5th SEEK Conference on Overcoming the Crisis: How to Foster Innovation and Entrepreneurship in a Diverging European Economy? Peter Praet Member of the Executive Board

2 5 years ahead growth expectations for the euro area % p.a Source: Consensus. 2

3 Output gap and capacity utilization Output gap: in percent of potential output; survey indicators: deviation of balances from their historical mean Sources: European Commission, IMF and OECD. 3

4 Expectations for EMU Microeconomic efficiency gains, which arise from the elimination of exchange rate uncertainty and transaction costs, and lead to a permanent increase in output Macroeconomic stability effects, which arise both from the elimination of intra-community exchange rates and from policy discipline in the monetary and fiscal fields Private markets will finance all viable borrowers, and savings and investment balances will no longer be constraints at the national level. Source: European Commission, 199, One Market, One Money 4

5 Worldwide Governance Indicator rank and GDP per capita levels GDP per capita in PPS; EU28=1 Source: World Bank. Notes: Worldwide Governance Indicator represents an average position in six broad dimensions of governance: (1) Voice and Accountability, (2) Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, (3) Government Effectiveness, (4) Regulatory Quality, (5) Rule of Law, and (6) Control of Corruption. 1 is the maximum relative level in the rank. 5

6 Primary balance and interest expenditure % of GDP 1. Italy Interest expenditure, general government 1. Belgium Interest expenditure, general government 8. Primary balance, general government (rhs) 8. Primary balance, general government (rhs) Source: European Commission, European Economist Forecast, Spring 215 6

7 Gross debt Euro area government debt and deficit 1 % of GDP Budget balance Sources: European Commission s spring 215 economic forecast, ESA95 data before 26. Note: Budget balance excludes UMTS proceeds. 7

8 Domestic demand 1999 = 1 Credit to the private sector 1999 = Programme countries 3 25 Progamme countries EA EA Other EA countries 2 15 Other EA countries 1 1 Source: EC and ECB. Source: EC and ECB. 8

9 Real three-month money market rates in the EA percentage points Source: EC, ECB 9

10 Regional inflation differentials with respect to aggregate Cumulative price changes since BE DE IE GR ES FR IT CY LU MT NL AT PT ATLN BALT BSTN CHIC CLEV DALL DETR FLA. HSTN LA.H PHIL SANF TRI. WASH Sources: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics and ECB calculations. Note: Regional inflation differentials with respect to the aggregate of the euro area or the US are cumulated starting in

11 Bank CDS Bank CDS Euro area banks and sovereigns credit default swaps basis points; Q1 21 Q3 215 Euro area United States Sovereign CDS Sovereign CDS 1Q1 1Q2 1Q3 1Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 13Q2 13Q3 13Q4 14Q1 14Q2 14Q3 14Q4 15Q1 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 Sources: Thomson Reuters and ECB calculations. Latest observation: 1 September

12 28Q3 29Q3 21Q3 211Q3 212Q3 213Q3 214Q3 215Q1 28Q3 29Q3 21Q3 211Q3 212Q3 213Q3 214Q3 215Q1 Impaired loans of euro area banks percentages of gross loans Vulnerable countries Other countries 3 Interquartile range Median 3 3 Interquartile range Median Sources: SNL and ECB calculations. Notes: Based on an unbalanced sample of 32 euro area banks for vulnerable countries and 25 euro area banks for less vulnerable countries. The charts represents ratios of gross impaired customer and bank loans over gross loans. 12

13 Euro area inflation % p.a. Price of inflation and deflation protection basis points per annum Euro Area HICP Euro Area HICP excluding food and energy Price of inflation protection Price of deflation protection Source: Eurostat. Latest observation: September 215 (flash) 13 Source: Bloomberg. Note: Price of % floor and 4% cap options (year-on-year) on euro area HICP inflation 5Y maturity. Developments should be interpreted with caution due to limited market liquidity. Latest observation: 2 September 215.

14 Composite indicator of the nominal cost of bank borrowing for non-financial corporations % p.a. 8. DE ES FR EA IT Source: ECB. Note: The indicator for the total cost of bank borrowing is calculated by aggregating short- and long-term rates using a 24- month moving average of new business volumes. Latest observation: August

15 Banking Union Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) Single Resolution Fund (SRF) Deposit Insurance (proposal for European Deposit Insurance Scheme) SINGLE MARKET Common rules ( Single Rulebook ) Common supervisory practices ( Single Handbook ) [EBA] 15

16 Total factor productivity Index: 1995 = 1 Source: European Commission. 16

17 More restrictions Fewer restrictions Ease of Doing Business Distance to frontier; 1 = global best practices Employment protection legislation Index: 6- (least restrictions) Source: World Bank Worst practices Best practices Source: OECD 17

18 Legal framework Ease of Doing Business, distance to frontier; OECD countries Source: World Bank (215). Note: 1 = global best practices. 18

19 Share of firms Share of firms of different size by country percentages 1 Micro (1-9) Small (1-49) Medium (5-249) Large (25+) ITA ESP NLD FIN PRT FRA AUT LUX BEL USA Source: Criscuolo, Gal, Menon (214) 19

20 NO IS NL SE FI DK LU UK DE FR AT BE SK EE HU EU28 CZ IE LV SI MT ES HR LT PL PT IT CY EL BG RO Digital skills of the workforce % of individuals (212) 1% No Low Basic Above basic 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: Commission services based on Eurostat data 2

21 Background slides 21

22 World Governance Index delivery indicator Changes in the average value compared to EA-North Source: World Bank. Notes: Indicator represents average of four components: Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption. 22

23 Unemployment rate % of (extended) labor force Unemployment rate Discouraged workers Sources: Labour Force Survey and ECB staff calculation. Note: Discouraged workers are inactive people who are available but not searching a job. The extended labor force is the number of active persons extended with the number of discouraged workers. 23

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