Thailand focus 2014 Competencies & Growth potentials. Arkhom Termpittayapaisith

Transcription

1 Thailand Focus 2014 What s new in Thailand s Economic Development Strategy Thailand focus 2014 Competencies & Growth potentials Arkhom Termpittayapaisith Secretary-General Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) Wednesday 27 th August 2014, am. Grand Hyatt Erawan, Bangkok, Thailand 1

2 1. The 11 th National Economic and Social Development Plan ( ): key development strategies to move Thailand forward on a more sustainable path and pave way to achieve high income country in a longer term. - From the 11 th Plan to Infrastructure Development Plan: where Thailand is heading to? 2

3 11 th National Economic and Social Development Plan ( ) Vision: A happy society with equity, fairness and resilience. Targets Thai society will become a better place, characterized by harmony and the well-being of its people. All citizens will acquire lifelong learning and better health. The Thai economy will achieve inclusive growth at a moderate pace based on its potential: Focus on upgrading total factor productivity (TFP) to be higher than 3 percent per annum Improve Thailand s competitiveness rank Increase the contribution of SME s to at least 40 percent of GDP Environmental quality will be improved to meet international standards. 6 Development Strategies Create Human and Social Quality 1. Create a just society 2. Develop knowledge-based society Restructuring the Economy 3. Strengthening the agricultural sector as well as food and security 4. Restructure the economy toward more balanced and sustainability 5. Create regional connectivity for social and economic stability Natural Resources Management 6. Manage natural resources and the environment towards sustainability 3

4 Infrastructure Development Strategies under the framework of the 11th Plan Strategy 4: Restructuring the economy aiming at quality growth and sustainability Improve infrastructure and logistics system Promote development of multimodal transportation Increase the efficiency of logistics management by developing professional human resources Improve railway transport Modernize the public transportation network Target 1. To reduce logistics cost per GDP to less than 15% and to increase rail transport to 5% of total transportation 2. To increase share of renewable and alternative energy use to Total Final Energy Consumption to more than 19% 3. To reduce energy import by more than 3% and to increase energy intensity by 2% Strategy 5: Creating regional connectivity for social and economic stability Develop connectivity in transport and logistics systems under regional cooperation frameworks Develop efficient transport and logistics services Improve rules and regulations Enhance human resource capabilities in transport and logistics businesses Link economic development along border economic zones to the domestic economy Target 1. Enhance Thailand s key regional role in trade and investment based on equitably shared benefits and security 2. To increase value of border trade and direct investment by Thai companies in neighboring countries by 15% and by 10% per year 4

5 Infrastructure Development Plan ( ) : Development targets & Strategy Development Targets: better quality of life and sustainable development 1. To enhance social security by improving people s quality of life 2. To enhance economic productivity by reducing transportation cost and time 3. To enhance travel and transportation security and safety 4. To enhance competitiveness and to facilitate Thailand to optimally benefit from AEC Development Strategy 1 Inter-city rail network development Public transportation network development for Bangkok Metropolitan Region Capacity enhancement for highway network to link with key areas in the country and with neighboring countries Maritime transport development Enhancement of air transport capacity 5

6 Infrastructure Development Strategies: 5 Key Programs New transportation development strategies Inter-city rail network 2. Capacity enhancement for highway network to link with key areas in the country and with neighboring countries 3. Public transportation network development plan for Bangkok Metropolitan Region 4. Air transport capacity enhancement 5. Maritime transport development Railway Road network Mass Transit in BKK & vicinity Water and Air transport Upgrade rail infrastructure and overall system Build double-track in 6 main rails with their extension to respective borders Develop 4 lane-road networks linking Thailand s key economic regions and borders areas Construct new motor ways Develop facilities along the main roads such as container yards Extend mass transit railway system in Bangkok and vicinity Improve quality of service and safety of mass transit bus as well as to enhance its environment standard Improve seaport on both Thai gulf and Andaman sea Enhance capacity of airports to be the regional center of air transportation Establish the aviation industrial estates 6

7 Key Transportation Projects expected in Old New Double track Rail network High speed train Review (F/S) Mass transit railway Highway Seaport Airport Custom Key investment projects started in 2014 Mass transit railway extension - Purple Line (Bangyai Bangsue) - Blue Line (Hua Lumpong Bangkae and Bangsue-Tapra) - Green Line (Baring Samutprakan) - Red Line (Bangsue Rangsit and Bangsue Talinchan) Key investment projects to be started in 2015 Mass transit railway 4 Lines above plus 5 more Lines - Green Line (Morchit Sapanmai Kukot) - Orange Line (Talingchan - Cultural center) - Yellow Line (Ladpao - Samrong) - Pink line (Kaerai Minburi) - ARL extension line (Suvanbhumi airport - Donmueng airport) Build double-track in 6 main rails Develop 4 lane-road networks and new motorways Improve seaports and build container center Improve Suvanbhumi airport and regional airports 7

8 2. From Infrastructure Plan to its implementation/action plan ways forward and key challenging 8

9 Causes of Delay in Project Implementation of the Previous 2 Trillion Baht Infrastructure Development Plan PPP Financing Plan Infrastructure Act SOE Revenue 2 Trillion baht Infrastructure Development (The Old Plan) Budget Other Borrowing The main cause of delay was the different views about the modalities/types of project financing despite more or less consensus views on projects ideas and concepts. In fact agencies concerned had stood ready for implementation. The debate was concentrated very much over the main sources of financing either off-budgetary or annual government budget. The previous government considered that off-budgetary ways of financing was more suitable taken into account budget constraint and continuity of the project implementation, thus led to the 2 trillion baht Infrastructure Development Act in March However, in March 2014, the Constitutional Court ruled against the Act as it was considered to violate the constitution. The plan was suspended thereafter. 9

10 Infrastructure Project Financing 1 2 Setting priorities and sequencing projects implementation By prioritizing the projects for budget allocation, the infrastructure investment projects have been allocated a budget worth 123 billion baht from the FY2015 budget. The key projects awarded with budget in 2015 include dual rail track, urban rail transport in Bangkok metropolitan area, road and maritime transport project, highway rehabilitation. In line with projects prioritizing and sequencing, the government will increase government budget efficiency and effectiveness both on the revenue and expenditure sides Timeframe for project implementation and the way to secure sources of fund for the remaining projects should be drawn up To some extents the timeframes have been stipulated in the plan. However, ministries concerned will soon propose detailed schedules to the coming government, provided some projects will have to be identified for the FY2016 budget. 10

11 Infrastructure Budget Allocation for FY2015 Budget Allocation for FY Restoring Confidence & Creating Firm Foundation Mil Baht 186, State Security 222, Sustainable & Equitable Economic Growth 4. Education, Health, Quality of Life 5. Management of Natural Resources & Environment 6. Science, Technology, R&D Development 7. Foreign Affairs & International Trade 169, , , , , Good Governance 354, Government Administration 517, Total 2,575,000 Note: data from Bureau of the Budget as of 21 st July 2014 Budget for Restoring Confidence & Creating Firm Foundation includes key infrastructure developments. Rail: with budget of million baht to prepare for investments in 11 rail routes (2,161 km), including land procurement, detail designs, bidding process. Urban rail: with budget of 1.92 billion baht for projects covering 8 routes. Connecting North South, East West, and Southern Economic Corridors, with budget of 15.2 billion baht to improve and rehabilitate roads and bridges along the Economic Corridors. Resolving bottle-necks and missing links, with budget of 10.2 billion baht Maritime Transport, covering feasibility studies for second Songkla deep seaport, Chumphon seaport, Suratthani seaport, etc. Budget for Sustainable & Equitable Economic Growth includes development of infrastructure and logistic Rehabilitation of highways and roads. Improving seaports Issuing licenses for logistics operators and rail services Subsidizing bus services Improving road safety 11

12 3. Financing of infrastructure development Plan: one of the key challenging, finding most efficient method/modality of financing 12

13 Infrastructure Fund Infrastructure Fund will be will be registered with Stock Exchange of Thailand and overseen and managed primarily by Ministry of Finance. There are 2 types of Infra Fund. Availability Payment Infra Funds, based on availability of service with no regard to actual usage or demand, e.g. power plants, power grid, water processing plants. Demand Payment Infra Funds, based on actual demand for service, e.g. express way. New projects with hard-to-predict returns/high risk may require Government s support (e.g. in form of minimum guarantee) to attract investors. SOEs that can set up Infra Fund: according to MOF assessment, 5 SOEs are ready to set up Infra Fund. There are 3 SOEs with adequate cash flow to set up Infra Fund using internal budget, namely Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT), Metropolitan Electricity Authority (MEA), and Port Authority of Thailand (PAT). These which likely to require Government assistance to set up Infra Fund include Expressway Authority of Thailand (EXAT) and Provincial Waterworks Authority (PWA). 13

14 Infrastructure Fund Criteria for setting up and managing Infra Fund approved by Securities and Exchange Commission in January Key Criteria Detail SEC allows Infra Fund to be set up Type of Fund Closed end fund with investing infrastructure specified for the following infrastructures Rail transport Size of Fund Min. size of 2 billion baht, with asset of each project min. size of 1 billion baht (except for electricity project min. size of 500 million baht allowed) Electricity Water supply Road, Express way, or toll way Airport Investment Form of Investment Infra Fund must invest in infrastructure no less than 75 percent of its capital within 6 months of being registered Infra Fund can invest in 2 ways: (1) direct investment in the infrastructure, or (2) indirect investment in companies that invest in infrastructure in forms of stocks or bonds. Deep seaport Telecommunication Borrowing Infra Fund can borrow no more than 3 times of its capital Alternative Energy Water management/irrigation Disaster prevention Trading of Unit Trust Unit trust allocation Infra Fund is to be registered in SET so that investors can trade their unit trusts. No person or persons shall hold more than one third of unit trust of an Infra Fund. If there is more than one type of unit trusts, no persons shall hold more than half of unit trusts of all type available. 14

15 4. With all those said development strategies and their associated plan and programs in various sectors and enabling factors what achievement Thailand is aiming to reach? 15

16 The 11 th Plan and Long-term and Medium-term Development Guideline The 11 th National Economic and Social Development Plan is a part of Thailand s Long-term Vision (2027) which aims to develop the country in economic, social and environmental aspects. For the economic aspect, as Thailand is now a middle income country, the long term goal is to lift the country up to high-income country. 6 Development Strategies of the 11 th Plan New Growth Model Growth and Competitiveness Economic Restructuring Creation of Quality Human Capital and Society Management of Natural Resources Strengthening of agriculture sector and food & energy security Restructuring of the economy towards quality growth and sustainability Regional connectivity Creation of Justice in Society Creation of Learning Society Preparation for effects of climate change and transfer to low-carbon & environmentally friendly society Human Capital / Quality of Life / Knowledge / Fairness Towards Economic Equity Inclusive Growth Towards High Income Country Towards Good Governance in Public Sector Legal Framework Infrastructure / Productivity/ Research & Development Towards Sustainable Economy Green Growth 16

17 Long-term and Medium-term Development Guideline Thailand will be a high-income country by 2027 (average growth of 5% per year) USD 18,000 Thai GNI per Capita Target : 1. Maintain GDP growth at 5 % 2. Achieve GNI per capita of 12,000 USD (Atlas method) by ,000 High Income Country (HIC) Avg. Growth 5% 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Upper Middle Income Country (UMIC) Lower Middle Income Country Half transition from UMIC to HIC 2013 (per cap) GNI = $5370 GDP = $5779 Avg. Growth 4% 0 Source: NESDB, World Bank 17

18 Thailand s New Growth Model: To pursue a stronger, sustainable and more balanced growth Growth & Competitiveness Inclusive Growth Green Growth Move up the value chain towards high-tech industries Create value add in agricultural and services sectors Maintain supportive environment by (i) ensure macroeconomic stability, (ii) encourage R&D and innovation, (iii) sound legal framework, (iv) skilled and readily available workforce and (v) infrastructure and logistics network Leverage on ASEAN Economic Community Enhance opportunities to access natural resources and supporting infrastructure to promote jobs and stable incomes Access to judicial system with fair and equitable legal protection for Thais and foreign workers in preparation for AEC Development of labor standard in preparation for movement of skilled labors among ASEAN countries Access to quality public health and social safety net Reduce energy usages in industrial sector logistics and households More usages of clean energy Upgrade to low-carbon production technology Expansion of forestry area to absorb green house gas ASEAN collaboration in the encouragement of green growth 18

19 THANK YOU