Section 2 Offshore outsourcing trends in the US and Japan and their impact on employment

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1 Section 2 Offshore outsourcing trends in the US and Japan and their impact on employment <Key points> 1. Overview of outsourcing According to the results of a survey conducted by a private research institute, information account for the largest share of the outsourcing market in both Japan and the United States (US) at around 20 percent, with other areas including consulting and human resources. These outsourced equate closely to the industry classification of professional and business. In the US, professional and business in all industries account for a share of production amount approximately 1.7 times greater than in Japan. 2. Outsourcing trends in the US While professional and business in the US continue to grow, the pace of growth has slowed, suggesting that professional and business are maturing as an industry. Looking at the relationship between outsourcing market maturity and offshore outsourcing, service trade statistics reveal that the trade value of professional, scientific and technical exports still outstrips that of imports, but increase rates suggest that imports are growing faster than exports. Affiliated transactions account for a growing share in the case of both imports and exports. Looking at trends in trade, there is a possibility that India may be increasingly placed as a resource for offshore outsourcing in its relationship with the US and the entire world. A more detailed breakdown of professional and business reveals that the number of industries with declining employment has grown at an increasingly rapid pace in recent years. 3. Outsourcing trends in Japan In the context of the industry as a whole, both production value and employment figures position the professional and business industry in Japan as an industry at the growth stage. In terms of balance of payments statistics, Japan s offshore outsourcing remains insignificant. 4. Development stages in outsourcing in Japan and the US Professional and business outsourcing are considered to develop through three stages: (i) service functions are handled internally; (ii) some internal service functions are outsourced domestically; and (iii) service functions are procured offshore from affiliates and other businesses. Using this typology, Japan can be said to be at the growth stage whereas the US is now in the maturity and competition stage. However, it is unclear whether professional and business in Japan will tread the same development path as the US

2 Section 1 demonstrated the weakening relationship between movements in GDP and job creation in Japan and the US, and changes in the micro competitive environment behind this. Discussions are taking place in the US regarding whether the offshore outsourcing 1 of professional and business is the cause of job losses. 2 In past discussions, many people point out individual cases of offshore outsourcing having a negative effect on the future, but little analysis has been done based on statistics. This section will examine the effect of the expansion of offshore outsourcing on employment trends in the US and Japan, using statistics on employment, GDP and trade. 1. Overview of outsourcing As there are no official statistics concerning outsourcing, this section refers to the results of surveys released by outsourcing research institutes in Japan and the US in order to first identify the areas for outsourcing within the industry. According to the Outsourcing Institute in the US, information technology make up 20 percent of the outsourcing market in the US, the largest ratio, and the areas of administration, real estate and plants, distribution and human resources each make up about 10 percent of the market (Fig ). Figure Composition ratio by area of the outsourcing market in the US () Composition ratio (%) Transpor ation Real estate, plants Information technologies Manufacturing Marketing and sales Human resources Trade Finance Management Customer Administration Source: 5th Annual Outsourcing Index (The Outsourcing Institute). 1 Outsourcing generally refers to a company using its resources externally or using external resources. Outsourcing to locations overseas is called offshore outsourcing or offshoring. When used in this section, these words refer only to the outsourcing of professional and business unless otherwise specified. 2 Roach and Berner (2004); Bardhan and Kroll (2003); Forrester Research (); etc

3 According to the results of a survey carried out by the Strategic Outsourcing Council of Japan (SOCJ), information technology, as in the US, make up approximately 20 percent of the outsourcing market in Japan, the largest ratio. These are followed by consulting, human resource related and specialized (Fig ). Composition ratio (%) 25 Figure Composition ratio by area of the outsourcing market in Japan (1999) Information processing and software-related Consulting Human resource and related Specialized Miscellaneous technical Product planning Manufacturing process Trade Advertising Facility management General government support Welfare Other Source: Survey on Outsourcing (Strategic Outsourcing Council of Japan). The outsourced covered by the organizations above equate closely to the industry classification of professional and business. 3 Therefore, in this section, we will examine trends in outsourcing and offshore outsourcing, and make observations using data on the industry classification of professional and business. Let us now compare the size of the outsourcing market in Japan with that in the US using data on production amount by industry in GDP statistics. Looking at Figure 1.2.3, one can see that the production amount of professional and business in Japan in 2001 was 50 trillion yen (411.4 billion dollars), making up a 13.7 percent share of the industry and a 5.4 percent share of all industries. Meanwhile, the production amount of professional and business in the US was trillion dollars, making up a 19.7 percent share of the industry and a 9.3 percent share of all industries. One can thus see that professional and business, or the outsourcing market, is significantly more developed in the US than in Japan. 3 In this section, job areas for outsourcing are referred to as professional and business. See AN1.2.1 for the industry classification of professional and business. When shown in quotations, such as professional and business and business, professional and technical, these correspond with the industry classifications explained in AN

4 Figure Comparison of the production amount and share accounted for by professional and business between Japan and the US Japan US Professional and business 50 trillion yen production amount US$411.4 billion US$ trillion Share in service industries 13.7% 19.7% Share in all industries 5.4% 9.3% Notes: The exchange rate is the average exchange rate for 2001 of yen to the US dollar. Sources: Simple Extended Input-Output Table (METI), Gross Domestic Product by Industry (US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis), Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly (Bank of Japan). 2. Outsourcing trends in the US (1) Changes in growth of outsourcing in the US Based on the discussion above, let us take a look at the relationship between employment trends in professional and business and economic cycles while comparing the situation in other industries using the method covered in Section 1. Looking at Figure 1.2.4, structural gains in employment are occurring in the industry overall. In the industry, education and health and financial activities are placed in the structural gain quadrant, while professional and business is placed in the procyclical flow quadrant, and the pace of employment growth for professional and business during economic recoveries is slow. 0.4% Cyclical flows Figure Job growth by industries during recession and recovery of the s in the US ( industries) Structural gains (Job growth in recovery (%)) 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% Professional and business Information Leisure and hospitality Trade, transportation, and utilities Financial activities Other Education and health -0.4% -0.5% Structural losses -0.8% -0.6% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% (Job growth in recession (%)) Notes: 1. See AN Period of recession is from Mar (peak) to Nov (trough); period of recovery is from Nov (trough) to Jan The size of the circle indicates the number of employees during the economic peak. Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) (Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor). Countercyclical flows

5 Let us then take a look at total medium-term production and employment trends in the professional and business industry while comparing the situation in other industries. Figure and Figure look at increases and decreases in the growth rate of production amount and numbers of employees in the major industries in the US in (Period 1) and (Period 2). 4 A 45-degree line is drawn through the two figures so that one can see increases and decreases in the growth rate during Periods 1 and 2. In the figures, if a industry is located to the upper left of the 45-degree line, its growth is accelerating. If it is located to the lower right of the line, its growth is slowing. 12% Figure Changes in the production value of the major industries in the US Growth rate during (annual average) 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Transportation, communications, and utilities Health Personal Educational Hotels and other lodging places Miscellaneous repair Social Motion pictures Financial, insurance, and real estate Automotive repair, and parking 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% Growth rate during (annual average) Note: See AN Source: Gross Domestic Product by Industry (Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce). Professional and business Amusement and recreational Figure Changes in the number of employees for the major industries in the US 9% Growth rate during (annual averag 7% Social Personal 5% Educational Financial, insurance, and real estate Miscellaneous repair 3% Motion pictures 1% Professional and business Transportation, communications, and utilities Health Amusement and recreational Automotive repair, and parking Hotels and other lodging places -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% -1% Growth rate during (annual average) Note: See AN Furthermore, information after relies on data from NAICS. Adjustments were made with the use of the comparative tables from NAICS as well as from SIC. Source: CBP United States Economic Profiles (Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce). 4 The periods were divided this way because of a change in industrial classification in the data for

6 As one can clearly see in Figures and 1.2.6, the growth in social and personal in both production amount and number of employees is accelerating, while the growth in professional and business is slowing. Figure shows trends in production amount and number of employees in professional and business through a comparison of professional and business and the industry as a whole. The growth rate of production and number of employees in the industry as a whole did not change during Periods 1 and 2. On the other hand, the growth rate of production and number of employees in professional and business was higher than that in the industry on the whole in Period 2, but the growth rate of professional and business slowed relative to Period 1 and appears to be moving toward the growth rate for the industry on the whole. 10.0% Figure Changes in growth rates of production amount of and number of employees in profesional and business in the US Growth rate of production amount (annual average 9.5% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% All service industries Professional and business service 6.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% Growth rate of number of employees (annual average) Sources: Gross Domestic Product by Industry (US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis), CBP United States Economic Profiles (US Department of Commerce, Census Bureau). As such, while professional and business in the US continue to grow, the pace of growth has slowed, suggesting that professional and business are maturing as an industry. (2) Services trade trends in the US (a) Overview of progress in offshore outsourcing As was suggested above, the domestic outsourcing market in the US is maturing. We will next look at the relationship between outsourcing market maturity and offshore outsourcing. Specifically, using trade statistics, we will examine whether exports in professional and business are

7 increasing, and if so, to what extent they are increasing. Figure looks at the import and export trends in business, professional and technical in the US, which correspond almost completely with offshore outsourcing. They are divided into transactions with affiliated and unaffiliated transactions. 5 Looking at the figure, it is apparent that the average growth rate of imports in - was 13.4 percent, a high level. Figure Exports and imports of professional, scientific, and technical for affiliated and unaffiliated transactions in the US (US$ 100 million) Imports Average growth rate between and : 13.4% Exports Average growth rate between and : 9.4% % 54.1% 50.3% 71.4% 71.2% 67.4% 44.0% 49.7% 45.9% 28.6% 32.6% 28.8% Imports Exports Unaffiliated Affiliated Source: U.S. International Services: Cross-Border Trade and Sales Through Affiliates (US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis). On the other hand, the average growth rate of exports in - was 9.4 percent, also a high level. In trade value, exports are still higher than imports in business, professional and technical. Looking at the composition ratios of transactions with affiliated and unaffiliated transactions, one can see that transactions with affiliates account for a growing share in the case of both imports and exports. (b) Progress in offshore outsourcing by type of industry (transactions with non-affiliates) Looking only at transactions with non-affiliates, one can obtain a detailed breakdown of data regarding other private 6 in US trade statistics. By studying the trade trends of each industry in business, professional and technical, one can specifically see the industries in which offshore outsourcing is occurring. Figure shows movements in import values in - for the nine industries in business, 5 Affiliates are subsidiary companies of which a majority of stock is owned. 6 US service trade statistics classify service trade into travel, passenger fares, other transportation, royalties and license fees, and other private

8 professional and technical with the largest import values as of. Looking at the industries by average growth rate in -, advertising, research, development and testing, installation, maintenance and repair of equipment, accounting, auditing and bookkeeping, training and architectural, engineering and other technical, each had higher growth rates than the 9.8 percent growth rate for business, professional and technical as a whole. ($ million) 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Figure Trends in imports for industries categorized under "business, professional, and technical " in the US (transactions with non-affiliates) Advertising Management, consulting, and public relations Computer and data processing Research, development, and testing Installation, maintenance, and repair of equipment Legal Accounting, auditing and bookkeeping Training Architectural, engineering, and other technical 10.5% 8.0% 3.6% 13.0% 35.3% 4.1% 15.5% 21.1% 55.0% Note: Percentages indicate the annual average growth rates from through. Source: US International Services: Cross-Border Trade and Sales Through Affiliates (Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce). (c) Offshore outsourcing to China and India (transactions with non-affiliates) We will examine US trade trends with India and China in business, professional and technical since these are often mentioned as major countries with which US companies carry out offshore outsourcing. 7 Looking at movements in the trade specialization coefficient between the US and these countries, the coefficient decreased slightly in the US s relationship with China, while it decreased significantly in its relationship with India (Fig ). Looking at the trade specialization coefficient related to outsourcing in India and China with the entire world including the US (trade specialization coefficient for other business 8 ), one can see that the trade specialization coefficients for China 7 McKinsey Global Institute (2003); Roach and Berner (2004); etc. 8 The balance of payments statistics, in the balance on, includes transportation, travel and other. The other is further divided into communications, construction, insurance, financial, computer and information, royalties and license fees, other business, personal, cultural and recreational and government n.i.e. Other business is divided into merchanting and other trade-related, operational leasing and miscellaneous business, professional and technical

9 and India became positive in 1997 and gradually increased thereafter (Fig ). Figure China and India's trade specialization coefficient for "business, professional, and technical " in the US (trade specialization (transactions with non-affiliates) coefficient) China (excluding Hong Kong) India Source: US International Services: Cross-Border Trade and Sales Through Affiliates (Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce). Figure Trends in the trade specialization coefficient for "other business " in India and China (trade specialization coefficient) India China (excluding Hong Kong) Source: Balance of Payments Statistics Yearbook (IMF). Based on these trends, the possibility appears that India may be increasingly placed as a resource for offshore outsourcing in its relationship with the US and the entire world. (3) Short-term trends in outsourcing and employment in the US (a) Industries with decreasing employment in recent years and characteristics of these industries According to what has been covered thus far, it appears that although employment in professional

10 and business in the US is growing, it is at the same time maturing. Here we will consider short-term trends in employment in professional and business. More specifically, we will look at changes in the numbers of employees between January 2001 and March 2004 (January 2004 for some industries due to data availability), dividing professional and business 9 into 21 industries. Figure compiles these into: (i) industries in which employment decreased from January 2001 through to the most recent period (10 industries); (ii) industries besides those in (i), in which employment decreased from January 2003 through to the most recent period (one industry); (iii) industries besides those in (i) or (ii), in which employment has decreased from October 2003 through to the most recent period (eight industries); and (iv) industries besides those in (i), (ii) or (iii) (two industries). As such, one can see that the number of industries with declining employment has grown at an increasing pace in recent years. Figure Employment trends in 21 industries affiliated with professional and business that have 4-digit NAISC codes (1) Industries that are decreasing employment from January 2001 until recently (10 industries) Accounting and bookkeeping (-2.4%), Architectural and engineering (-2.1%), Computer system design and related (- 16.4%), Management of companies and enterprises (-7.2%), Employment (-4.5%), Business support (-4.9%), Specialized design (-10.0%), Advertising and related (-14.4%), Travel arrangement and reservation (-19.3%), Waste treatment and disposal (-9.2%) (2) Industries other than (1) above that are decreasing employment from January 2003 until recently (1 industry) Other support (-0.1%) (3) Industries other than (1) and (2) above that are decreasing employment from October 2003 until recently (8 industries) Legal (-0.7%), Services to buildings and dwellings (-8.4%), Other professional, scientific, and technical (-5.4%), Office administrative (-0.5%), Facilities support (-1.1%), Investigation and security (-1.8%), Waste collection (-2.0%), Remediation and other waste management (-2.9%) (4) Industries other than (1), (2) and (3) above (2 industries) Management, scientific, and technical consulting, Scientific research and development Notes: 1.Figures in parentheses ( ) indicate employment growth rate from the standard point in time (January 2001 for (1) and January 2003 for (2)) until recently. 2. Not seasonally adjusted data. Values for February and March 2004 are preliminary figures. 3. Number of employees until recently is the number for March 2004 if data for March 2004 is available, and for February 2004 if data for March 2004 is not available. Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) (US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics). We will now look at sales trends in - in the 10 industries in (i), in which employment decreased in and after January 2001, excluding management of companies and enterprises for which sales data could not be obtained. In Figure , looking at the four industries in which there is a notable decline in employment excluding travel arrangement and reservation, one can see that the amount of decrease in sales has also accelerated. 9 According to the classification by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor. See AN

11 (year-on-year) Figure Sales trends after Jan through most recent period for 10 industries in "professional and business " that led to a decline in employment 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Travel arrangement and reservation Sharp decline in employment Computer system design and related Advertising and related Waste treatment and disposal Specialized design Business support 2001 Moderate decline in employment Note: Yearly income values per capita were taken from the following sources due to restrictions concerning the data: values from the CBP United States Economic Profiles (Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce); values from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor). Sources: Service Annual Survey (Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Department of Commerce); CBP United States Economic Profiles (Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce); Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor). Employment Architectural and engineering Accounting and bookkeeping (b) Progress in offshore outsourcing looked at through changes in numbers of employees by occupation Thus far we have covered employment trends in professional and business in the domestic US economy. Here we will look at trends in the number of employees in the US by occupation in order to supplement the discussion conducted thus far. Looking at trends in employment by occupation allows one to examine trends in employment related to offshore outsourcing including employment created internally within companies. Figure shows year-on-year rates of change in the number of employees in occupations for outsourcing in the US. The occupations for outsourcing in which the number of employees declined were office and administrative support occupations, computer and mathematical occupations, architecture and engineering occupations and arts, design, entertainment, sports and media occupations, and there was a trend toward a decreasing growth rate of employment in other occupations as well

12 Figure Changes in the number of employees in occupations for outsourcing in the US (year-on-year) 1,080,000 15% 2,770,000 persons persons 10% % 0% 22,750,00 0 persons 4,770,000 persons 2,410,000 persons 1,500,000 persons 930,000 persons Business and financial occupations Architecture and engineering occupations Computer and mathematical occupations Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations Office and administrative support occupations Life, physical, and social sciences occupations Legal occupations -5% -10% Notes: 1. See AN Numbers of persons indicate employees as of. Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) (Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor). 3. Outsourcing trends in Japan Below we will examine Japan in the same way we did the US. (1) Changes in growth of outsourcing in Japan Figures and , as in the case of the US, look at changes in the growth rate of production amount and numbers of employees in the major industries in Japan in (Period 1) and (Period 2). 10 7% Figure Changes in the production value of the major industries in Japan Growth rate during (annual average) 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Health Transportation, communications, and utilities Personal Financial, insurance, and real estate Professional and business Motion pictures Educational Social 0% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Growth rate during (annual average) Notes: 1. See AN Only represents industries in first quadrant. Industries that lay in quadrants other than first quadrant were omitted. Source: Extended Input-Output Table (METI). 10 The periods were divided this way because the Survey on Services Industry by the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications, which is used as a reference by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, was conducted every five years (1989, 1994 and 1999)

13 Growth rate during (annual average) Figure Changes in the number of employees for the major industries in Japan 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Health Motion pictures Social Professional and business Personal Miscellaneous repair Hotels and other lodging places Automotive repair, and parking Amusement and recreational -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -2% Educational Financial, insurance, Transportation, communications, and real estate -4% and utilities -6% Notes: Growth rate during (annual average) 1. See AN In regard to obtaining data of the number of employees, since data for some industries were not available in the Survey on Services Industries, data for these industries was supplemented from the Monthly Labour Survey. Concretely, data from the Monthly Labour Survey was used for industries of Category G "Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply, Waterworks," Category H "Transportation and Communications," Category J "Finance and Insurance," Category K "Real Estate," Category L, Subcategory 88 "Medical Care," and Category L, Subcategory 91 "Education" of the Standard Industrial Classification for Japan revision of Sources: Survey on Services Industries (Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications); Monthly Labour Survey (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare). Looking at these figures, one can see that while the growth of production in professional and business slowed during Period 2, the growth in the number of employees accelerated. Comparing trends in the industry as a whole, one can see in Figure that the growth rate of production as a whole declined significantly. One can also see in comparison that the growth rate in the number of employees in professional and business increased and the slowdown of the growth of sales was suppressed. Growth rate of production amount (annual average) 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% Figure Changes in growth rates of production amount of and number of employees in professional and business in Japan All service industries Professional and business % 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Growth rate of number of employees (annual average) Notes: Regarding obtaining of data of the number of employees, since data for some industries was not available in the Survey on Service Industries, data for these industries was supplemented from the Monthly Labour Survey. Concretely, data from the Monthly Labour Survey was used for industries of Category G Electricity, Gas, Heat Supply, Waterworks, Category H Transportation and Communications, Category J Finance and Insurance, Category K Real Estate, Category L, Subcategory 88 Medical Care, and Category L, Subcategory 91 Education of the Standard Industrial Classification for Japan revision of Sources: Survey on Service Industries (Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications), Monthly Labour Survey (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare), Extended Input-Output Table (METI). As such, based on these factors, it appears that both the production amount and the number of employees show the professional and business industry in the context of the industry as

14 a whole to be in a stage of growth. (2) Services trade trends in Japan We will now examine offshore outsourcing trends in Japan. Looking at balance of payments statistics in Japan, the value of imports in other business and technical, 11 which is considered to be the statistical classification closest to offshore outsourcing, has gradually decreased, and one can thus see that Japan s offshore outsourcing remains insignificant (Fig ). (100 million yen) 27,000 Figure Trends in imports of other business and technical in Japan 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15, Source: Balance of Payments Monthly (Bank of Japan). 4. Development stages in outsourcing in Japan and the US Based on the above results, it appears that while domestic outsourcing in the US (professional and business ), in spite of slowing growth, has reached a maturity and competition stage, the professional and business industry in Japan is at a growth stage. As stated at the beginning of this section, in the US, professional and business in all industries account for a share of total production that is approximately 1.7 times greater than in Japan (Fig ). Based on the case of the US, there appear to be several stages in the development of outsourcing. Specifically, there seem to be three such stages: (i) the domestic professional and business industry has not yet matured, so service functions are handled internally or are not used ( internal creation stage ); (ii) the professional and business industry has developed, and some internal functions are outsourced domestically or functions that had not existed are purchased from the professional and business industry ( domestic outsourcing stage ); (iii) the professional and business industry has matured and become saturated, foreign direct investment has progressed, and service functions are procured offshore from affiliates and other businesses 11 See footnote

15 ( offshore outsourcing stage, competition in the domestic professional and business industry progresses during this stage). Figure shows the relationship between the development stages of the professional and business industry and the outsourcing of professional and business based on the above concepts. In the figure, it appears that Japan is at the growth stage whereas the US is now in the maturity and competition stage. Figure Interrelation between development stages in the professional and business industry and development stages in outsourcing Market scale Generation stage Growth stage US Maturity and competition stage Professional and business industries Japan Interrelation Expansion of entries Creation of Expansion of labor markets by pioneers demand Competition Consolidation Shift to and creation of new businesses Stage Outsourcing Internal creation stage Domestic outsourcing stage Business rationalization Formation of new business patterns through utilization of new production elements Offshore outsourcing stage Further reduction of labor costs Utilization of overseas production elements Source: METI. In looking at the results of the analysis of Japan and the US thus far, professional and business in the US have matured domestically in the medium term, imports have increased centered on transactions with affiliates, and employment has decreased in recent years. Based on this, although the future effect on employment is unclear, professional and business in the US can be said to be in a maturity and competition stage. Professional and business in Japan, however, have grown in the medium term, imports have decreased gradually, and the production amount is nowhere near that of the US. One can thus conclude that professional and business in Japan are still at the growth stage. It is unclear whether professional and business in Japan will take the same path as those in the US in the future, but it will be necessary to continue to pay close attention to offshore outsourcing trends in the US

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