India s Infrastructure - Trends, Projections, Requirements

Transcription

1 India s Infrastructure - Trends, Projections, Requirements Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«

2 Index Key Areas A Snapshot Projections by 2020 Mega trends in logistics Improving Multimodal Transport Systems Benchmarks Conclusions Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«

3 A Snapshot by the end 2012/2013 Good News Bad News Strengths Big potential market Sustainable economic growth Western judicial system (case law) English Business language Large number of graduated job seekers Weaknesses Very low per capita income Lack of adequate infrastructure Bureaucracy red tape Prevailing underground economy Low educational level Lack of skilled labour Opportunities Growing middle-class with increasing demand Industry needs modernisation Private sector investments Low cost labour India becomes global player Threats Judicial system slow Strong Government interference on economy High real estate costs land acquisition Powerful unions High attrition rates Source: GTAI 10/2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«3

4 Bad news may be good for logistics Risk or Opportunity? I see Risk You see Opportunity Rupee crashes! makes Exports more competitive High Manufacturing costs in India! makes import of capital goods attractive Domestic demand is slackening! domestic manufacturers turn to exports Red Tape increases in India! A consumption economy thrives on imports & exports Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«

5 A Snapshot by the end 2012/2013 Need for Policy Announcements to Lift the Mood Open Retail & Aviation to FDI Clarify Unfriendly Tax Provisions Reduce Subsidies on Diesel, Petrol, LPG Clarify Environmental & Land Acquisition Policy Increase FDI in Insurance & Pensions Issue new Bank licenses Source: Waco-System 22 OCT 2012 Reduce Subsidies on Fertilizer and Kerosene Kick-start pending infrastructure projects Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«

6 Projection by 2020 India s Rapid Growth Requires a Strong Logistics Industry GDP could increase from 1,7 to 30 trillion USD, with production of physical goods increasing by factor 8-10 times Energy consumption expected to double. India needs 20 billions tons of coal by 2030 of which 75% need to be transported 30% trough ports Crude steel production expected to increase by factor 4 between 2007 and Demand for cement to double by 2030 Agricultural output to increase from current 207 million tonnes to 295 million tonnes by 2020 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«6

7 Projection by 2020 India s Rapid Growth Requires a Strong Logistics Industry Container traffic expected to increase from existing 8 million to 15 Millions TEUS in the next 3-5 years Overall EXIM cargo of Indian ports to increase to around 1,500 million tons by 2015 Finished consumer goods Indian made and imported transported to middle-class consumers is likely to increase by 4 times Modern warehousing space is expected to increase to around 100 million sq.ft. by 2015 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«7

8 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Three Key Areas Affecting Type and Nature of Logistics 1 Changing demographics Rapid urbanization Cost effective ways to serve the needs of changing urban/industrial centres 2 Evolving requirements of trade Sophistication, modernization, clustering of manufacturing activities 3 Evolving inter-modal mix of commodities Bulk commodities to be moved across India more rapidly, safely and efficiently Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«8

9 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Three Key Areas Affecting Type and Nature of Logistics It is estimated that India s transportation and logistics bottlenecks hinder its GDP growth by approximately 2 per cent. (Business India 22 July 2012) What is usually missed out is the realisation that we in India have one of the lowest transportation and warehouse costs in the world. The total logistics cost are driven by inventory and other losses due to inefficiency and poor business practices. In the US these costs account for 25 per cent of logistic costs, whereas in India they account for over 55 per cent of costs. Mahendra Agarwal, MD, Gati-KWE Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«9

10 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Changing Demographics Rapid Urbanization Increasing migration towards urban areas expected 60% of India s urban population will be concentrated in urban clusters Urbanization and clustering will lead to specialized agglomerations and satellite cities to serve these clusters Source: National Transport Development Policy Committee Delhi, February 2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«10

11 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Changing Demographics Rapid Urbanization Key action points Long term Cargo Routes for speedy access Intra-city transportation Sea container, air cargo and truck offloading facilities > Inland Container Depots Short term Designated areas for warehousing Link to rail systems Source: National Transport Development Policy Committee Delhi, February 2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«11

12 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Evolving Requirements: Sophistication and Modernisation Existing infrastructure will become obsolete due to the exploding trade volume Introduction of international standards will push forward competitive service-oriented environment Source: National Transport Development Policy Committee Delhi, February 2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«12

13 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Evolving Requirements: Sophistication and Modernisation Key action points (examples) Efficient warehouse management systems Go-down to replaced by larger modern warehouses Added value services cold chain warehousing, packaging, track-and-traceservices Source: National Transport Development Policy Committee Delhi, February 2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«13

14 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Multi-Modal and Intermodal Transportation: Getting the Mix Right Misuse of transportation mode for the wrong type of commodity. Congestion mismatch amongst various modes Inefficiencies cost and time Source: National Transport Development Policy Committee Delhi, February 2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«14

15 Mega Trends in Logistics in India Desired State of Logistics Infrastructure in India Multimodal Freight Corridors Logistics Parks in Remote Areas Vessels Multimodal Logistics Parks Pipelines Roads Ports Economic Trade Zones Source: National Transport Development Policy Committee Delhi, February 2012 Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«15

16 Enabling multimodal transport Benefits of Network with Planned Overlaps Optimal utilization of logistics infrastructure: Reduction of fuel requirements by %. Reduction of logistics expenditure between 0.5 and 2 % of GDP Increase utilization of railways for cargo movements from 30% to 60% Increase utilization of pipelines from 55% to 80% (intern benchmark) Enhance combined share of long coastline and inland waterways from 8 to 15% Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«16

17 Enabling multimodal transport Coastal Shipping, Inland Water Transportation, Ports Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«17

18 Enabling multimodal transport Coastal Shipping, Inland Water Transportation, Ports Key Issues Related Issues Policy Changes Adequate supply of vessels Improve availability of port infrastructure at viable pricing Skilled manpower Maintenance of important waterways and navigational aids Reduce bunkering costs (20-30% above global average) Investment for domestic cargo corridors PPP for additional smaller berths Increased capacity of carriers handling bulk cargo. Government incentives for investors Increase average vessel sizes Allowing international capacity for domestic and EXIM cargo Fixed time single window approval policies Take the load off the road RORO jetties Extend port network for EXIM traffic with simplified handling procedures Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«18

19 Enabling multimodal transport Pipelines Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«19

20 Enabling multimodal transport Pipelines Key Issues Related Issues Policy Changes Existing Pipelines highly underutilized No return of empties but ideal for unidirectional traffic Extension of National Pipeline Grid along with the National Electricity Grid Scope to transport upstream and downstream products in the same pipeline system (e.g. crude oil, gasoline) Common Carrier classification in line with international practices Standard tariff system levied to all users Fiscal and tax incentives for potential investors Single Window Clearance System for setting up new pipeline systems Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«20

21 Enabling multimodal transport Rail Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«21

22 Enabling multimodal transport Rail Key Issues Related Issues Policy Changes Increase of track length Increase average speed for cargo trains Customization of wagons for specialized cargo Introduction of service level agreements Development of interconnected dedicated freight corridors Set-up Multimodal Parks Introduction of modern wagons Encourage leasing and supply of wagons Freight-market benchmarked tariff structures to reduce over-utilization of road traffic Commodity based pricing Enhance privatisation drive Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«22

23 Enabling multimodal transport Roads Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«23

24 Enabling multimodal transport Roads Key Issues Related Issues Policy Changes Paved road-density low, share of highways only 15% of which 0,5% have 2/4 lane traffic Inadequate structures reduce load per axle Road Safety - Accident rate one of the highest in the world Promotion of private fleet exchanges Improvement of offroad infrastructure (truck stops, rest rooms) Improvement of new composite fee regime for national permit Reliable Commercial Vehicle Driver Training Schools Usage of Route Vehicle Intra State Movement in city distribution Harmonization/ standardization of road containers Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«24

25 Enabling multimodal transport Air Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«25

26 Enabling multimodal transport Air Key Issues Related Issues Policy Changes Domestic air cargo market underserved (1 cargo airline only) Ensuring availability of co-located warehouse and storage facilities Scope for improving the speed of evacuation of air cargo in line with international turnaround times Co-location of shippers, forwarders, agents, express operators, carriers and customs in integrated cargo villages Air Cargo Hubs with strong intermodal facilities in BOM/DEL/ NAG/PNQ/BLR Integrated common user cargo warehouse facilities Grant permission to stakeholders to set up off airport private bonded facilities. Note: Although air cargo represents only a small percentage of India s trade volume it however includes vital commodities to cater for the social needs, for the manufacturing sector and overall consumption. Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«26

27 Introduction of Benchmarking Key Benchmarks to Monitor Processes Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«27

28 Introduction of Benchmarking Key Benchmarks to Monitor Processes Main Areas Related Issues Examples Cost related Efficiency Safety and environment Lack of benchmark identification concerning transportation and logistic systems Lack of adherence to existing benchmark specifications Existing systems need to be upgraded Turnaround time for ships at ports Service level commitments for railways Turn around commitments by customs and excise Waiting time control at collection points Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«28

29 Conclusions A Wish List Recommendations to Improve the Status Quo Connect industrial hubs and new urban centres with distribution hubs Create policy changes for each mode of transport by increasing investment Channel commodities movements to the appropriate mode of transport Engineer the overlap of cargo networks, insuring intersections being close to production centres Harmonize and streamline processes across government bodies Collect data comprehensively to support planning and investment decisions Decongest airports and seaport by shifting clearance activities away to inland locations Set benchmarks and standards. Drive for uniformity of warehouses, storage and transportation equipment Set safety, health and environmental standards Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«

30 Acknowledgements Bernhard Steinrücke, Director General, Indo-German Chamber of Commerce, Mumbai Carsten Hernig Regional Director South Asia and Middle East, Lufthansa Cargo AG Cyrus Guzder, Chairman, AFL Private Limited, Mumbai CII, Confederation of Indian Industry CII Institute of Logistics Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«

31 Thank you for your kind attention Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH Gartenweg Mainz-Kostheim/Germany Tel/Landline MD/Owner Margret Heesen [email protected] Werner Heesen Consulting GmbH LOGISTICS FORUM»MORE THAN CURRY«31