DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR EMPLOYMENT GENERATING LANDS STUDY. Draft Final Paper. Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale. March 2009

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1 DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR EMPLOYMENT GENERATING LANDS STUDY Draft Final Paper Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale March 2009 Collie Pty Ltd URBAN PLANNERS URBAN DESIGNERS LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTS 29 Coventry Street Southbank Victoria 3006 Australia Telephone Facsimile consult@colliepl.com.au ABN

2 E MPLOYMENT G ENERATING L A NDS S TUDY O:\projects\ \003\word\finalised\30961R.doc March 2009 Collie Pty Ltd This document was prepared by Collie for the benefit of the client and in response to the specific services required by the client. Collie has used its best endeavours to ensure this document reflects the required services and outcomes and the client intentions, at the time of preparing the document. In preparing the document, Collie has relied upon stated or implied assumptions, data (reports, plans, surveys, correspondence, photographs and such), commentary, responses to enquiries and other third party information, available to it at the time of preparing the document. Notwithstanding that Collie attempted to ensure it was using the most current versions of such documents and other information, it did not check independently their accuracy or completeness. Collie does not warrant their accuracy and points out that those assumptions, data and responses may have been qualified and may have been given with a disclaimer of responsibility. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE i

3 E MPLOYMENT G ENERATING L A NDS S TUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction Study objectives and structure Approach to the Study Report objectives and Structure Context and Policy Review Strategic Context and setting Land Use Structure Policy Context Amarillo Development Peel Workforce Development Strategy (2006) Peel Region Infrastructure Plan (2006) Employment and Economic Development Report and Strategy Murray Jorgensen & Associates Town Planning Scheme Report Potential Siting of Employment Generating Land - Worley Parsons Shire Rural Strategy (1994) Policy Summary and Conclusions Issues Priorities Strengths Potentials Regional Economic Profile Output Employment Transactions Input Co-efficients Output Co-efficients Summary and Key Conclusions Local Economic Profile Output Employment Value Added Regional Exports Backward Linkages Key Drivers Location Quotient Location Quotient Summary Future Regional context Population Forecasts Land Use and Economic Structure Report for South Metro and Peel Region Strategic Framework Regional Linkages Workforce Labourforce Summary and Key Points Economic Structure Analysis Summary and Key Points South Western and Peel Region as an Employment and Population Growth Area Serpentine Jarrahdale Context Serpentine Jarrahdale Economic Context Future Serpentine Jarrahdale Economic Context Future Development Context Industry consultation Current State of the Economy Within the Shire and Development Intentions Infrastructure, Site Requirements and Zoning Interest in Relocation STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE ii

4 E MPLOYMENT G ENERATING L A NDS S TUDY Leading Employers Key Conclusions Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land Population Projections Labourforce Projections and Employment Structure land requirements Floorspace Requirements Land Requirements Summary and key conclusions Business Investment and Attraction and Implementation Framework Introduction Context statement Key Principles Industry Diversity Land Infrastructure Business Development Marketing Management Framework Disclaimer 69 TABLES Table 1: Output in the Peel Region ($2006) Table 2: Employment in the Peel Region by Industry Sectors Table 3: Transactions within Peel Region Table 4: Input Co-efficients Peel Region Table 5: Serpentine Jarrahdale Employment Profile Table 6: Employment - Top 15 Most Significant Industry Sub-Sectors Table 7: Value Added - Top 15 Most Significant Industry Sub-Sectors Table 8: Regional Exports - Top 15 Most Significant Industry Sub-Sectors Table 9: Backward Linkages - Top 15 Most Significant Industry Sub-Sectors Table 10: Most Significant Sub-Sectors in Serpentine-Jarrahdale Table 11: Population Forecasts for Southern Metropolitan Region ( ) Table 12: Average Per Annum Population Growth (per cent) ( ) Table 13: Distribution of Population Growth ( ): Proportion of Growth Table 14: Leading Employers in the Shire FIGURES Figure 1: Structure of Key Outcomes... 7 Figure 2: Distribution of Output and Employment Figure 3: Serpentine Jarrahdale - Output Figure 4: Regional Context Figure 5: Workforce Linkages Figure 6: Labourforce Linkages STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE iii

5 1 INTRODUCTION Collie Pty Ltd (Collie) was commissioned in June 2008 to prepare a Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land for the Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale. The study was commissioned in response to projections of very strong population growth. In order to provide an effective long-term planning framework to accommodate the projected growth, Council commissioned the Activity Centres Strategy and the Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land Study. The purpose of the Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land Study is intended to provide a whole-ofindustry perspective for employment needs in the Shire in the period to 2021 and beyond, and the likely land requirements that this will generate. The study was commissioned in the context that the historic experience both in Perth and other Australian cities indicates consistently that outer urban growth areas are limited in the job provision that can be created locally. In this context the Serpentine Jarrahdale employment study seeks to provide a robust framework and optimal conditions to maximise emerging and future employment opportunities. 1.1 STUDY OBJECTIVES AND STRUCTURE The key objective for the study is "to undertake a strategic assessment of the demand for employment generating land in the Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale" (Study Brief, page 10). The study has several key objectives: to assess the Shire's current economic structure and patterns of investment; to identify drivers of economic activity and the extent to which these are locally or regionally generated; to identify opportunities for investment, business development and employment growth; to assess employment needs and land requirements in the Shire over the period to 2021 and beyond; to establish a strategic framework for business development and investment attraction and a prioritised implementation framework. Three outputs were required to be produced for the study. These included: an Issues and Opportunities Paper; a Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land Paper; and a Business Investment and Attraction Framework. In order to present the findings in a comprehensive format, the three papers have been integrated as a complete set in a single document. It will be noted that: analysis and findings in the Issues and Opportunities Paper are presented in Sections 2 to 6; the Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land Paper is provided in Sections 7 and 8; the Business Investment and Attraction Framework is provided in Section 9. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 4

6 1.2 APPROACH TO THE STUDY The study was approached using a number of key factors and analyses. These are listed below: the context in which Serpentine Jarrahdale fits within the surrounding regions provided an insight into the current forces shaping the Shire. This was further developed with a review of the relevant policy considerations; an analysis of the regional economic profile was then conducted to determine the likely future pattern of economic development within the Shire; the local economy was then examined to provide an overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the Shire. A comparison was completed between different regions relating to Serpentine Jarrahdale and the Perth metropolitan region; the analysis completed, along with a review of population projections for the region and Shire provided an insight into the future regional context; regional employment linkages were also examined to provide an insight into the inflow and outflow of workers to the Shire; the future development context was identified using surveys and other analysis. Projections of labourforce and land requirements by location type were also completed to provide a fuller picture of the future development requirements for the Shire. Finally, a business investment and attraction framework was prepared to facilitate employment generating land development. 1.3 REPORT OBJECTIVES AND STRUCTURE In the context of the Study, the purpose of this report is to outline the existing economic structure of the Shire as well as providing an overview of the regional economy. A series of analyses and surveys have been undertaken as part of the study, together with a review of metropolitan planning framework. The structure of this report reflects the major analysis and review tasks undertaken for the Study, and includes the following major sections. An overview of the regional context, including: o population projections; o transport and land use policies; o profile of economic activity. A detailed review of the local context, including: o the current land use structure; o the current policy framework, including identified strategies for activity centre and employment activity. A profile of the Shire s current economic structure, including: o employment and output profiles; o the location and nature of local industries. A review of the investment context for the Shire, including: o investment intentions of the major existing businesses in the region; o major land use activities planned for the Shire and surrounding areas. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 5

7 From these analyses, a series of issues and opportunities have been developed; these were further explored and developed into an employment land strategy for the Shire. A structure of the key outcomes required for the completion of the study is highlighted in Figure 1. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 6

8 SERPENTINE JARRAHDALE STRUCTURE OF KEY OUTCOMES FIGURE 1 Economic Policy Context Regional policy Industrial policy Economic Structure Analysis Input-output analysis Critical value measures of output Export linkages Local output linkages Comparable economic strengths Demand Analysis for Employment Generating Land Population projections Workforce projections Labourforce projections Workforce structure projections Employment f oorspace Employment land requirements Business Investment Attraction and Implementation Framework Context Statement Vision Strategic Principles Recommended actions Summary of land requirement by type Business and skills development Regional Linkages Serpentine Jarrahdale workshed (where Serpentine Jarrahdale s workers are drawn from) Serpentine Jarrahdale workforce linkages Industry needs Industry consultations Collie Pty Ltd. January 2009 Project

9 2 CONTEXT AND POLICY REVIEW 2.1 STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND SETTING The northern boundary of Serpentine Jarrahdale Shire is located approximately 35 kilometres south east of the Perth metropolitan region. The Shire is rural in its physical setting and economy and exurban in its settlement patterns. The Shire sits in the south east growth region, part of the growing and future extension of the Perth-Armadale corridor with access to the central, eastern and northern districts of the metropolitan region via the Tonkin Highway and the historic Albany Highway / Shepparton Road link. Other key transport links include the South Western Highway and the Perth-Bunbury railway line. The south east region is currently undergoing strong population and housing growth, buoyed by the considerable expansion of the State's mining and resource industries. Population growth is expected to increase from approximately 13,000 residents in 2007 to over 50,000 by The south east will form a complementary settlement spine to the key metropolitan high growth Perth- Rockingham corridor, aided by the Shire's structural advantages; clear and significant rural and open space separation from the southern corridor, but established arterial road network linkages to this critical region. The south west growth corridor, extending to the south of Perth along the coast has absorbed a significant proportion of this population expansion and associated employment growth. The growth directed to the south west has been reinforced by significant investment in transport infrastructure. As a result there has been recent development of new industries and employment nodes, delivering a high per capita rate of employment provision across the region. Serpentine Jarrahdale as part of the Peel region, an area encompassing the municipalities of Boddington, Mandurah, Murray, Serpentine Jarrahdale and Waroona, is expected to absorb a substantial portion of further Perth metropolitan growth. This dramatic population growth will have implications for the provision and development of a range of services, as well as increasing local employment needs. It is therefore necessary to define a strategy that outlines the nature and distribution of industry and employment growth within the region. 2.2 LAND USE STRUCTURE The Shire forms part of the south western growth corridor which is bounded by the Darling Escarpment to the east. The major townships within the Shire include Byford, Mundijong, Serpentine, and Jarrahdale. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 8

10 The Darling Escarpment provides a visual and physical barrier to the coastal and inland plains of the State, and large parts of the range are designated National Parks. Aside from the escarpment, which dominates the Shire s topographical profile, the western part of the Shire is largely flat terrain: the palus plain is an extensive sand plain between the escarpment and the coast with limited natural drainage. The climate of the region is characterised by warm summers and mild winters and the Shire's inland location provides limited relief at the height of summer. Serpentine Dam is the largest water body in the Shire and is located in the south east of the municipality east of Serpentine National Park. The main tributaries of this dam, together with those of Wungong Dam (located east of Byford) comprise the basis of the drainage structure in the Shire. The Shire is dominated by rural activities, including farmland, national parks and forests. Almost all of the Shire's intensive land uses are devoted to the western part of the Shire (west of the Darling escarpment). Whilst there are a number of smaller settlements in the eastern part of the Shire the great majority of industry and habitation remains in the western part of the Shire. 2.3 POLICY CONTEXT Amarillo Development The Amarillo development is a large proposed residential development in the Shire of Murray but located on the border with Serpentine-Jarrahdale. There is potential for existing industrial activities in Serpentine-Jarrahdale to be compromised by proposed residential development. Abutting land in the Shire of Serpentine-Jarrahdale includes: land subject to Poultry Development Special Control Area under TPS2 - preferred location for poultry farms which are being 'squeezed out' of existing urban areas; land identified as Agricultural Priority Management Area - Existing Area as (subject to investigation) pursuant to Statement of Planning Policy 11; land in the vicinity contains a mix of rural uses including horse stables, poultry farms, pet meat abattoir, manure works, agro-forestry and broad acre grazing; potential for acid sulphate soils issues to arise in SJ if not addressed; large proportion of SJ Shire land adjacent to the site is seasonally flooded palus plain. Potential for this to impact on drainage channels - particularly important should there be an interim rural living zone on the fringes of the site; site includes significant groundwater and surface water assets within Shire; Serpentine airstrip - noise buffer area extends into project site. Airport is used during fire season, and significant capital works have been undertaken. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 9

11 2.3.2 Peel Workforce Development Strategy (2006) The Peel Workforce Development Strategy was prepared for the Peel Development Commission, the Department of Education and Training, and Challenger TAFE by Geografia. It was finalised in November General Issues A number of important points relating to Serpentine-Jarrahdale Shire were noted. A plan to relocate Jandakot Airport to the border of Serpentine-Jarrahdale and Murray Shire's, bringing 100 to 400 construction jobs, 2,000 airport jobs, 2,000 post-secondary students taking courses at the airport, and 4,500 jobs (by 2020) on a light industrial estate around the airport. A lack of industrial land is considered to be a major weakness of the region. The strategy noted that an increase in the provision of industrial land would assist in the population and business retention within the region. A strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis was also undertaken as part of the strategy, the points relating to business and employment are listed below. Strengths The Peel region's proximity to metropolitan Perth makes it an ideal destination for the Regional Skilled Migrant Scheme. The sense of community, along with the lifestyle and physical environment are significant attractors for the region. The rail line, the road bypass, and the large scale private infrastructure projects are all adding to the advantages of the Peel region for businesses and industries. The region has a strong economic base, particularly in terms of primary and secondary industries (mining, agriculture and light manufacturing). Opportunities Lifestyle is one of the region's main advantages. There is scope for growth in the local tourism market. There is recognised potential for the Peel region to attract bio industries (in marine and environmental science). There is scope to position the Peel region as a centre for training and education excellence. The rail and new bypass will improve access for people to metropolitan education and training opportunities for Peel residents. Mature age workers, particularly the semi-retired, are a labour force that has not been tapped into to a large extent. The 'Peel as an education hub' concept will benefit from greater transport access for residents of the southern metropolitan areas for education and training opportunities in the Peel region. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 10

12 The expansion of several mine sites and refineries is a significant opportunity for jobs, multiplier effects, and the employment of apprentices. The new road and rail infrastructure will improve access to employment opportunities in the metropolitan area. The strategy identified significant demand for skilled trades people, but limited supply. Skill development and training is a key component of this, as the region experiences higher unemployment than the metropolitan area as a whole Peel Region Infrastructure Plan (2006) The Peel Region Infrastructure Plan was completed in October 2006 and sought to identify the issues relating to infrastructure requirements for the Peel Region in light of the current and projected population growth. (a) Critical infrastructure Projects Relating to industrial land, the plan lists the projects ranked as critically necessary within the timeframe for the region as follows: Murray, Cardup and Waroona Industrial Land; Nambeelup Industrial Land; Mine Associated Industrial Land (Soldiers Road, Boddington), and Boddington Light Industrial Land. The plan notes that industrial demand is the highest infrastructure need in the region. Development of further industrial lands is necessary to generate employment growth. Residential development in Serpentine-Jarrahdale is also pushing up demand for employment. (b) General Issues Some of the general issues that the plan made note of for Serpentine-Jarrahdale Shire were: the resources boom fuelling significant population growth in Western Australia (WA) and the Peel Region; population could grow by as much as per cent between 2001 and 2031, this is higher than the growth rate for regional WA and the state as a whole; the local environment is a significant asset and attractor; bauxite and aluminium refining facilities, as well as agriculture, are the main supports of the region's economy. Largest agricultural sectors are pig, poultry and beef farming, fodder and horticulture; tourism is also a contributor to the Shire's economy, although the region mainly attracts day-trippers and people passing through to the south; the Byford-Mundijong activity corridor is highlighted as a key growth area with potential for 65,000 new residents. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 11

13 (c) Infrastructure Potentials Potentials were identified for the Peel Region as a whole, these were: industrial parks in appropriate locations; investment in world-class ICT to stimulate telecommunications industry, telecoms dependent investment and stimulating small knowledge management home-based business; businesses relocating from the metropolitan area; a Mining Centre of Excellence; Iconic Tourism, particularly eco-tourism through establishment of the Peel Regional Park, capitalizing on other natural assets and an iconic theme park; a technology park focusing on renewable resources or similar industry niche (s). Infrastructure Priorities The priorities for Serpentine-Jarrahdale were considered to be: extension of Tonkin Highway to Orton Road for completion by 2008; funding for development of Mundijong / Whitby Structure Plan; funding for a Community Facilities and Services Plan compilation and implementation; funding for Strategic Planning Studies - Local Planning Strategy and Town Planning Scheme; implementation of a rail service to Byford by 2007 with complementary bus to rail linking service from Mundijong, Jarrahdale and Serpentine by Rail service to Mundijong by 2009; improved water and other utilities infrastructure to Jarrahdale; funding for feasibility into alternate water use / reuse strategies for Mundijong and Serpentine; preservation and retention of Mundijong-Jarrahdale railway line; continuation of the provision of a passenger rail service between Bunbury and Perth; Jandakot airport - the Shire opposes the proposal for a new airport development on the southern boundary of the Shire; funding for demand analysis to establish an Employment Generating Park at Cardup Employment and Economic Development Report and Strategy Murray Jorgensen & Associates (a) Population and Labourforce Projections The population projections undertaken by the Ministry for Planning cited in the report and strategy predicted that the Shire population would reach 15,490 by 2006; 20,240 by 2011; 27,090 by 2016; 37,980 by 2021 and 55,790 by It was predicted that the resident labour force would grow from 4,771 in 1996; 5,951 in 2001; 8,190 in 2006 and 10,474 in STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 12

14 The study identified that, based on the population and future projections at the time, the relatively small population base would provide for only incremental growth. It was considered that there would be very little stimulus for any significant growth in commercial and industrial activity (page 18). (b) Floorspace Commercial floorspace was found to be confined to the Shire s three largest centres - Byford, Serpentine and Mundijong. Byford - mostly shop / retail, some Other Retail. Mundijong - shop / retail base, plus a range of other activities. Serpentine - smaller shop / retail base and larger proportion of Service Industry Town Planning Scheme Report The Town Planning Scheme Report identified that the Shire contains only one quarter of the neighbourhood / local centre floorspace that would be supported by the existing population. A clear undersupply of retail floorspace was identified, and a scenario that has been entrenched as a result of escape expenditure to the Armadale Regional Centre. As a result of the current undersupply and the projected population increases, it has been determined that there will be an ongoing demand for retail floorspace in the future. This is supported by the floorspace projections in the Town Planning Scheme Report (page 18). Extractive industries identified in the Shire include clay, sand, hardrock and gravel. The tourism industry was selected as an industry that had significant capacity for growth. (a) Infrastructure Infrastructure at the time of the report is listed below: Western Power new substation; gas pipeline; water supply; on-site sewerage only; highways, bus services, rail. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 13

15 (b) Education The report noted that whilst there were TAFEs and a university in the region, none of these educational institutions was situated in Serpentine Jarrahdale. There were also no secondary schools in the Shire. The projections used in the study indicated that there would be a need for up to five government primary schools and two government high schools in the Byford area. The Department of Education has a high school site in Mundijong. The balance of the Shire needs to be investigated further. Based on these projections, it was considered that there would be no need for a university in the region Potential Siting of Employment Generating Land - Worley Parsons The study identifies that existing industrial zoned land is fairly limited and confined to a small area of land zoned for light industry in Byford. There is also potential for further subdivision of approximately 8 hectares in the town. It is expected that the rapid growth occurring in the urban development zone in Byford will assist with the necessary provision of infrastructure. Current South Metropolitan industrial areas: Bibra Lake and Kwinana large amounts of undeveloped land; alternatives to Peel Region. Subdivisions in Henderson (marine focus), East Rockingham, Hope Valley, Wattleup and Port Kennedy. Port Kennedy improved due to better road connections. Mostly light / service / some heavy industry. East Metropolitan: loss of smaller transport and logistics uses due to mergers and relocations to eastern states; mostly storage / warehousing / manufacturing, some retail, office, service, light industry. SJ Shire. The following opportunities have been identified for employment land development within the Shire: mid and larger sized lots (4,000 to 5,000 square metres) would be preferred over smaller lots (1,000 to -2,000 square metres) which have better sales potential in areas closer to the metropolitan area; industrial land should be targeted at support industries (such as to the agriculture, forestry and urban development industries); investigate flagship clients - opportunities in businesses which require lower value landholdings on the metro fringe region, including bulk warehousing, transport and logistics and manufacturing. In particular, businesses requiring access to the south west and south east focus would be most suitable; distribution - potential to capitalise on links with the South metro region, Mandurah and South West. Large distribution companies have been active in the market place in Canning Vale. An increase in property prices in this region may encourage the relocation of distribution companies to the Serpentine-Jarrahdale region; manufacturing industries - approach existing industries in established, inner metropolitan areas; commercial uses to support increased population, such as whitegoods and furniture; STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 14

16 urban services such as gyms and indoor recreation facilities; home based businesses. The study made the following recommendations: immediate priority - development of the Sotico site on the South Western Highway; short term priority - land in the western side and in the vicinity of the intersection of Tonkin Highway and Kargotich Road; development of land adjacent to proposed Western Power uses south of Thomas Road. This land is close to future urban catchments and transport infrastructure, including road and rail Shire Rural Strategy (1994) (a) Development The strategy determined that the majority of development was to be concentrated at Byford, Mundijong / Whitby and Serpentine. Jarrahdale is constrained both physically and by state assets. (b) Business Some of the issues raised in the strategy included: a large number of small businesses; self-contained villages; significant rural industries; rural support industries; loss of spending to Armadale - critical mass of commercial / service activities is necessary. A number of key recommendations have arisen out of the study, including: examining opportunities to expand existing industries in the Shire; the following types of industries or opportunities can be targeted for development within the Shire: o aquaculture - such as marron; o intensive agriculture - such as hydroponics, mushroom farms and so forth; o rural value adding industries, such as wine production; o hay baling plant; o stockfeed; o poultry farming, hatcheries and processing plants; o expansion of the equine industry and training facilities; o renewable energy projects, such as wind farm; o motor sports complex; o woodcraft, furniture and tourism related craft industries; o maintain a watching brief on any opportunities that may arise for replacement of imports with local products; STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 15

17 o o investigate incentives to attract new investment to the region; investigate incentives to attract new or substantial expansion of existing industries, for noncompeting industries that create employment opportunities. 2.4 POLICY SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Issues The policies and strategies identified as having an impact on both the Peel region and Serpentine-Jarrahdale Shire were cognisant of a number of key issues. The most important issue facing the region is high population growth. It was predicted to grow per cent between 2001 and 2031 in the Peel Region Infrastructure Plan and by around 360 per cent according to Murray Jorgensen and Associates. In turn, it was noted that the workforce would increase dramatically. There was an understanding that it would be difficult to accommodate the increases in population with the requisite number of jobs. The majority of future population growth and floorspace expansion was mooted for the current three largest centres in the Shire - Byford, Mundijong and Serpentine. There would be continuing demand for retail floorspace in the future. The inability of the Shire to provide a critical mass of retailing and services was resulting in a loss of spending to Armadale. In turn, it was identified that there was an undersupply of industrial land. An increase in this type of land would assist in retention of industry and businesses. The ability to attract and retain industries will be hampered by a lack of industrial zoned land in the Shire, it is limited to a small area of light industry near Byford. Residential development will prove to be an issue affecting the Shire's industrial activities. The Amarillo development, a large scale residential development straddling municipalities of Murray and Rockingham, sits on the border of Serpentine-Jarrahdale and threatens to damage industry output in the Shire. Industries which are being threatened by residential development include poultry farming, horse stables, pet meat abattoir, manure works, agro-forestry and broad acre grazing. There is a need for a greater supply of skilled trades people in the region. The region is currently undersupplied and demand is high for skilled trades Priorities Priority needs for the Peel region and Serpentine Jarrahdale in relation to employment generation were noted in the reports, strategies and policies. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 16

18 An extension of the Tonkin Highway to provide a greater network of regional connections was noted as being a priority. The high population growth in the Byford region will require around five primary schools and two high schools according to the Peel Region Infrastructure Plan. Other education priorities revolved around skill development and training to facilitate an increase of skilled trades people in the region. Funding for a range of studies was deemed necessary for the Shire, including a structure plan for the Mundijong and Whitby area, a Community Facilities and Services Plan, and a number of strategic planning studies. A rail service extending to Byford by 2007 with an extension to Mundijong by 2009 was seen as a priority for the Shire. Further infrastructure priorities included improved water and utilities services. In addition, a feasibility study was proposed to analyse water use/reuse strategies for Mundijong and Serpentine. The preservation and retention of the Mundijong-Jarrahdale railway line was also considered a priority for the Shire. The high population growth and subsequent need for employment opportunities in the Shire meant that a high priority was a greater supply of industrial land. Three sites in particular were suggested for the Peel region including, Cardup, Murray and Waroona. Further employment opportunities could be explored in Boddington with mine associated industrial land development and light industrial land development. An immediate priority for industrial land was the development of the Sotico site on the South Western Highway. A short term priority was also appropriate land in the western part of the Shire and land in the vicinity of the intersection of Tonkin Highway and Kargotich Road. Other land development priorities included the land adjacent to the proposed Western Power uses (south of Thomas Road). This land is in close proximity to future urban catchments and transport infrastructure (road and rail) Strengths A number of strengths were highlighted in the strategies, policies and reports studied. The Peel region is relatively close to the Perth metropolitan region, which is emphasised with strong transport links. This makes it an ideal destination for skilled migrants. The physical environment of the region is considered a positive. The natural resources and lifestyle the region provides is a strength of the Peel region. This is complemented by the rail line, road bypass and large scale infrastructure projects which have been completed in the recent past. These infrastructure projects have proven to be attractive to businesses and have attracted industry. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 17

19 Serpentine Jarrahdale has a strong economic base, particularly in terms of primary and secondary industries. Mining (bauxite and aluminium), agriculture (pig, poultry, beef cattle farming, fodder, horticulture) and light manufacturing are significant primary industries in the Shire Potentials Despite the issues identified in the strategies and policies, a number of key potentials were identified for both the Peel region and Serpentine Jarrahdale Shire. It was noted that there was an opportunity to market the lifestyle of the region. The natural environment of the region and the Shire would be valuable in attracting residents and could be used for tourism purposes (potential for an iconic theme park). Business development potential was considered in the reports and strategies also. Potentials for business development included bio-industry attraction, and the expansion of mining which would promote employment opportunities and result in flow-on effects into the wider economy. Technology and industrial parks were seen as potentially significant business attractors, perhaps accommodating the potential relocation of businesses from the metropolitan area. Further potentials for business development included aquaculture, more intensive forms of agricultural production, value adding to existing rural industries (viticulture), a hay baling plant, poultry farming, the equine industry, renewable energy (wind farms) and woodcrafts and furniture related industry development. There is potential for further light industrial zoned land at Byford (approximately 8 hectares once subdivided). There is greater sales potential for larger employment land lot sizes than smaller lot sizes. Larger lot sizes are more attractive to buyers in areas closer to the metropolitan region. Industrial land should also be targeted at support industries, particularly for agriculture, forestry and urban development industries. There are opportunities to attract flagship businesses to the region. The lower value of the land in the Shire as opposed to more urbanised areas allows the potential for warehousing, transport and logistics and manufacturing industries to relocate and set up in the region. The strong connections between Serpentine Jarrahdale and the south east, south west and more rural southern regions will attract industries (particularly distribution type industries) that require frequent access to these areas. The population growth provides potential for strong business growth for some retail (whitegoods and furniture) and urban services (including gyms and indoor recreation facilities), and home based businesses. Education was seen as a potential strength of the region. The Peel region was envisaged as a centre for training and excellence, with the regions strong links to the south through improved infrastructure providing potential. This may include a Mining Centre of Excellence, which would tie in with the strong primary industry base of the region. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 18

20 The rural strategy also identified infrastructure potentials, including new rail and bypass road linkages to the region from both the south and the Perth metropolitan region. Investment in telecommunications technology that would help drive communications service industries in the Shire. Incentives were cited as being an opportunity to bring new businesses to the region. There are opportunities for analysis to determine which industries would be the most appropriate to develop without cannibalising the employment base of other industries in the Shire. The tentative plan to relocate Jandakot airport, possibly to the border of Murray and Serpentine Jarrahdale had the potential to provide significant employment effects to the Shire. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 19

21 3 REGIONAL ECONOMIC PROFILE The regional economic profile is important to identify, as it provides the framework or parameters within which the Shire will evolve. It also provides an indication of existing strengths and potential development areas. In particular, given the more advanced level of development in the region as a whole when compared to Serpentine Jarrahdale, the current regional economic context provides an indication of potential future patterns of economic activity in Serpentine Jarrahdale. The current regional economy can be described through a range of measures, including employment, output, sales, imports, exports and value-adding. The Remplan model, developed by Compelling Economics, provides information on each of these measures Output The level of output represents the gross revenue generated by businesses and organisations in Peel Region, and is effectively a measure of business activity. The total output estimate for Peel Region is estimated to be approximately $8,975 million; the distribution of this by sector is shown below. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 20

22 Table 1: Output in the Peel Region ($2006) Sector Output ($million) Per Cent of Total Output Manufacturing 4, Construction Property and Business Services Mining Retail trade Health and community services Agriculture Forestry Fishing Wholesale Trade Education Government Administration and Defence Finance and Insurance Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants Transport and Storage Cultural and Recreational Services Personal and Other Services Communication Services Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Total 8, Source: Remplan (Compelling Economics) As indicated above, the manufacturing sector is the largest contributor to the region s economy, representing almost half of total output. Within the manufacturing sector, the most significant sub-sectors comprise basic metals and products, and more specifically non-ferrous metal and products. This represents the activity at the Alcoa refinery at Pinjarra; a significant land use and economic activity in the region. Other major sectors in terms of output include construction (trade services), property and business services, mining and retail trade Employment The availability of a range of employment options is a key factor in the liveability and economic sustainability of a region; the distribution of employment across various sectors indicates the range of options available to local residents. It should be acknowledged that the table below represents the distribution of local jobs; and not the employment characteristics of the local resident population. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 21

23 Table 2: Employment in the Peel Region by Industry Sectors Sector Employment (number of jobs) Per Cent of Total Employment Retail Trade 4, Manufacturing 3, Construction 2, Health and Community Services 2, Education 1, Property and Business Services 1, Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants 1, Agriculture Forestry Fishing 1, Government Administration and Defence Personal and Other Services Wholesale Trade Transport and Storage Mining Cultural and Recreational Services Finance and Insurance Communication Services Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Total 24,455 Source: Remplan As indicated above, the major sectors in terms of employment within the region include retail trade, manufacturing, construction and health and community services. Together, these sectors comprise over half of employment in the region. Retail trade includes the sale of retail goods and services including repairs. As a highly labour intensive industry, and one which is particularly responsive to population activity, the retail sector often plays an important role in the employment profile of growth areas. The majority of jobs in this sector however, are casual and relatively lowskilled; the provision of a range of employment opportunities is a key objective for the development of a mature and vibrant economy. The majority of jobs in the manufacturing sector are associated with the same sectors as outlined above in relation to output. In particular, basic non-ferrous metal and products are a major employment sector, again illustrating the importance of the Alcoa refinery. The construction sector (2,599 jobs) also plays an important role in the region; the majority of jobs in this sector are related to the provision of trade services (70 per cent); a smaller proportion relates to residential building activity (21 per cent) and other construction (9 per cent). STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 22

24 Other sectors include health and community services employment comprises health services (1,524 jobs) and community services (968 jobs). (a) Employment Analysis There is a significant disparity between the sectoral distribution of employment and output; manufacturing comprises over 44 per cent of output but only 19 per cent of employment. This reflects both the low level of labour intensity of manufacturing compared to other sectors, together with relatively high value of goods produced in this sector. The major labour intensive industries in the region include service industries such as property and business services retail, health and community services and education. Figure 2: Distribution of Output and Employment Transactions The scale and nature of business to business transactions provide a key indicator of the regions level of selfreliance and internal business activity. The table below shows the sectors which have significant business to business activities in the region (greater than $20million). STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 23

25 Table 3: Transactions within Peel Region Transactions $M Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services Intermediate Total Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Transport and Storage Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services Source: Remplan (Compelling Economics) $22.08 $0.12 $22.91 $0.37 $0.15 $4.59 $0.01 $0.48 $56.41 $0.03 $47.36 $ $0.99 $0.62 $0.09 $0.03 $0.16 $ $6.25 $8.22 $ $88.92 $11.84 $28.03 $0.80 $12.17 $ $1.05 $4.55 $2.46 $ $3.86 $3.09 $0.34 $9.30 $ $4.27 $4.71 $20.99 $10.43 $5.82 $12.20 $0.67 $8.76 $92.90 $2.78 $2.40 $20.47 $12.21 $9.21 $3.89 $0.21 $6.57 $78.05 $2.50 $2.79 $4.91 $16.60 $5.10 $7.30 $38.96 $18.68 $ $2.77 $9.10 $35.37 $51.12 $33.92 $52.89 $11.19 $ $ As illustrated above, the most significant inter-relationships within the region relate to manufacturing, construction, property and business services and mining. The most significant source of internal transactions is the manufacturing sector, which trades over $640m. The majority of this occurs within the basic non ferrous metal and products and largely represents the activities of the Alcoa mining and manufacturing plant. Other major business interactions occur in the construction sector and particularly construction trade services. This activity represents trades services operators purchasing services from other trade services, such as a builder employing an electrician. The construction sector also has trading patterns with the manufacturing sector; this represents the purchase of locally produced building products including ceramic products, cement, lime and concrete slurry, structural metal products and fabricated metal products. Property and business services also interact internally to a large extent; this sector includes commercial property operators and developers, real estate agents, and transport equipment leasing. Property and business services sector provides services to a number of local industries; including manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade and internally to other property and business services operators. The manufacturing sector purchases goods from a range of sectors within the region, including agriculture, forestry and fishing (dairy cattle / dairy products), mining (metal ores / non-ferrous metal products), manufacturing, wholesale trade (basic metal products) transport and storage (road transport) and property and business services. This range of interactions indicates that the scale of manufacturing activity in the shire has encouraged the development of many supporting businesses. The extent to which these businesses rely on the presence of the mining sector is illustrated in analysis of the input co-efficients. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 24

26 3.1.4 Input Co-efficients Input and output coefficients represent the transactions described above in a proportional format. The input / output analysis is an analysis of historic data on production, labour, other input and output relationships. It is thus a measure of the current and past economic structure of the Shire. It is nonetheless an important starting point for an economic strategy. It assists in the identification of where the best benefits would be to productivity, wealth, employment, local business, and export growth if particular sectors are grown. An input co-efficient indicates the source of inputs for every dollar of output and represents the degree to which local businesses rely on other local businesses for imports, wages, taxes and profits as a source of total output. The sectors with the highest input co-efficients include property and business services; this indicates that a significant proportion of output generated by this sector is derived from other local businesses (as distinct from external businesses and sources). Construction, wholesale trade, transport and storage, property and business services, and cultural and recreational facilities have relatively high intermediate totals, indicating that a high proportion of each of these sectors inputs are purchased locally. Conversely, agriculture, forestry and fishing, manufacturing and retail trade have lower intermediate totals, indicating that a low proportion of requirements for these businesses are provided locally. A high input coefficient for domestic imports indicates that for every dollar of output generated by the sector, a high proportion of the inputs required come from outside the region. This may represent an opportunity for some local business development and replacement of imports by local businesses. The table below provides a summary of input co-efficients. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 25

27 Table 4: Input Co-efficients Peel Region Input Coefficients Agriculture Forestry Fishing Manufacturing Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transport and Storage Communication Services Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services Cultural and Recreational Services Agriculture Forestry Fishing Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas and Water Supply Construction Finance and Insurance Property and Business Services Intermediate Total Wages and Salaries Gross Operating Surplus Domestic Imports Overseas Imports Total STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 26

28 3.1.5 Output Co-efficients Output co-efficients represent the destination (by sector) of goods and services produced within the region. A high intermediate total indicates that a high proportion of goods or services are sold locally. The analysis indicates that the electricity, gas and water supply sector, together with transport and storage, communication services, finance and insurance and the property and business services sector sell significant proportions of their output (goods or services) to other local businesses. The retail trade, accommodation, cafes and restaurants, cultural and recreational services together with personal services sectors have a high level of reliance on household expenditure (although not necessarily households within the region). Government administration, education and health and community services have a high reliance on government consumption. Transport and storage, manufacturing, mining and agriculture, forestry and fishing have a high proportion of exports. Whilst trade between local manufacturing industries is the largest business-business trading sector locally and is large in real terms ($642m), by far the largest market for local manufacturing is exports. For every $1.00 of output generated by the Manufacturing sector, $ is spent on inputs sourced from the Manufacturing sector within Peel Region. 3.2 SUMMARY AND KEY CONCLUSIONS The Peel Region has undergone vast change in the recent past. Population growth, changing agricultural practices, and infrastructure development have all occurred in the past ten to fifteen years, creating a different economic landscape to the one that has been prevalent for over 100 years. As a consequence of this, Shire economies within the Peel Region have evolved at different rates. Some areas have already made the transition from a rural economy to an urban economy (notably Mandurah), whilst others (including Serpentine Jarrahdale) are still reliant upon agriculture, forestry and fishing as the backbone of the local economy. There are a number of industries in the region that have rates of local consumption. These include construction, wholesale trade, transport and storage, property and business services, and cultural and recreational facilities. The analysis also indicated that industries such as electricity, gas and water supply sector, together with transport and storage, communication services, finance and insurance and the property and business services sector have significant levels of their outputs going back into the local economy. STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 27

29 4 LOCAL ECONOMIC PROFILE The rural nature of Serpentine Jarrahdale has meant that economic and employment activity has historically been defined by rural activities. Agricultural practices have traditionally formed the foundation of the local economy. The nature of Serpentine Jarrahdale's economy can be seen in a breakdown of the output of the Shire Output The total output estimate for the Shire of Serpentine Jarrahdale is approximately $742 million. The largest component of this is manufacturing, which is significant to the local economy, and represents over 20 per cent of total Shire output. Manufacturing activity largely comprises dairy, ceramic and flour mill products. Construction (15 per cent) agriculture (13 per cent) and property and business services (9 per cent) also generate significant output in the Shire s economy. Figure 3: Serpentine Jarrahdale - Output STRATEGIC PLANNING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING URBAN DESIGN LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE 28