Regional Victoria. Chapter 4

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1 Regional Victoria Chapter 4

2 Overview The ABS Labour Force Survey placed approximately one quarter of the state s total workforce in regional Victoria at the time of the 2011 Census. In the ten years to 2011, employment in regional Victoria grew by nine per cent, largely driven by increases in population. Major regional cities such as Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat have experienced strong employment and population growth over the last decade. The five largest employing industries in regional Victoria were Health care and social assistance, Retail trade, Manufacturing, Construction and Agriculture, forestry and fishing. Of these, the largest increase in employment was registered by Health care and social assistance, followed by Education, Construction and Public administration and safety. While Agriculture, forestry and fishing remains an important source of employment in regional Victoria, the sector s labour force has declined by around 15 per cent in the last decade. 42 Regional Victoria

3 Regional Victoria s labour market The labour force The labour force in regional Victoria has undergone substantial change over the ten years to 2011, reflecting changes in population and an increase in female participation. The map below shows that the labour force increased substantially in the coastal areas around the Bass and Surf Coasts, and the major regional centres of Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat, Shepparton, Mildura and Wodonga. There were also increases in the labour force in the peri-urban areas bordering metropolitan Melbourne s growth areas. Over the ten years to 2011, declines in the labour force occurred mainly in the Mallee and Wimmera regions of western Victoria, driven by a decline in the overall population of these areas. Figure 4.1: Change in labour force by place of residence, regional Victoria, 2001 to ,000 8,500 1,700-1,700 Greater Shepparton (C) Wodonga (RC) Greater Bendigo (C) Mitchell (S) Macedon Ranges (S) Ballarat (C) Warrnambool (C) Greater Geelong (C) Baw Baw (S) Latrobe (C) Regional Victoria 43

4 Regional Victoria s labour market Participation in the labour force Unemployment rate In the ten years to 2011, the overall participation rate in regional Victoria has fallen slightly from 58.7 per cent in 2001 to 58.5 per cent in Decreases in the participation rate were observed in west, north and north west of regional Victoria. These were partly offset by increases in other regions, particularly in the shires of Central Goldfields and Bass Coast. The labour force participation rate varies across regional Victoria depending on a range of factors including demographic composition, the education level of workers, employment opportunities, health and other factors. Figure 4.2 and 4.3 show that the participation rates have increased over the last ten years in areas where the unemployment rate has fallen. There is a close association between the unemployment rates and the participation rates, with more people participating in the labour market as unemployment declines, perhaps encouraged to do so by the greater availability of work. Figure 4.2: Change in the participation rate by place of residence (percentage points), regional Victoria, 2001 to 2011 The regional Victorian labour market is characterised by relatively low levels of unemployment. As Figure 4.3 shows, the unemployment rates in regional Victoria have improved throughout the 2000s, from 7.1 per cent in 2001 to 5.1 per cent in Improvements have been most significant in the Gippsland and Geelong regions and in the major regional population centres, including Bendigo and Ballarat. Figure 4.3: Change in the unemployment rate by place of residence (percentage points), regional Victoria, 2001 to 2011 Buloke (S) Yarriambiack (S) Gannawara (S) Greater Bendigo (C) Central Goldfields (S) Ballarat (C) Mount Alexander (S) Golden Plains (S) Greater Geelong (C) Latrobe (C) Bass Coast (S) 44 Regional Victoria

5 Changes in employment Changes in employment by industry The ABS Labour Force Survey 7 shows that the number of people employed in regional Victoria increased 20 per cent to approximately 734,000 over the ten years to The five largest employing industries in regional Victoria are Health care and social assistance, Retail trade, Construction, Manufacturing and Agriculture, forestry and fishing. Combined, these industries account for 52 per cent of employment across the regional Victorian economy. Agriculture, forestry and fishing is a major industry in regional Victoria, accounting for 77 per cent of the state s Agriculture, forestry and fishing jobs. The Mining, Utilities and Construction sectors also have relatively greater proportions of workers in regional Victoria compared to the statewide and Melbourne averages. Figure 4.4: Employment by industry (000s), regional Victoria, 2013 The regional services industry sectors encompassing Accommodation and food services, Retail trade, Public administration and safety, and Health care and social assistance account for a relatively larger proportion of regional Victoria s labour force compared to metropolitan Melbourne. Regional Victoria does not have significant employment in the Financial and insurance services, Professional, scientific and technical services or ICT-related industries, which are largely located in metropolitan Melbourne. The increase in regional employment in the period from 2003 to 2013 was led by the Health care and Construction industries, while Manufacturing, Financial and insurance services, and Information media and telecommunication all recorded a decline in employment over the ten years to Figure 4.5: Change in employment by industry (000s), regional Victoria, 2003 to 2008 and 2008 to ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Jun 2013 (cat. no ) Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2013 (cat. no ) Source: ABS, Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, Feb 2013 (cat. no ) Regional Victoria 45

6 Changes employment Changes in employment by place of work Over the decade to 2011, the major regional centres of Geelong, Bendigo and Ballarat experienced significant employment growth. Other LGAs that exhibited employment growth over this period include South Gippsland, Baw Baw and Wodonga. Employment numbers also grew in peri-urban areas close to Melbourne. Figure 4.7: Change in employment by place of work, regional Victoria, 2001 to 2011 Areas in the north west and north east of the state recorded a decline in employment over the ten years to ,000 Figure 4.6: Employment by place of work, regional Victoria, ,500 1,300-1,300 Wodonga (RC) 1,300 to 3,500 3,500 to 5,000 5,000 to 10,000 10,000 to 25,000 25,000 or more Ballarat (C) Greater Bendigo (C) Greater Geelong (C) Greater Shepparton (C) Bass Coast (S) Greater Bendigo (C) Ballarat (C) Greater Geelong (C) Latrobe (C) 46 Regional Victoria

7 Changes in employment Changes in part-time and full-time employment As in metropolitan Melbourne, there has been a shift towards greater levels of part-time employment in regional Victoria over the decade to This shift is particularly evident in the major regional centres and peri-urban areas where strong population growth has been accompanied by an increasing demand for personal services such as Health care and social assistance, Other (personal) services and Retail trade. Figure 4.9: Change in part-time employment by place of work, regional Victoria, 2001 to 2011 Increases in full-time employment also occurred in the regional centres and peri-urban areas, with decreases recorded in the north west, west and north east of the state. Figure 4.8: Change in full-time employment by place of work, regional Victoria, 2001 to ,400 2, ,000 2, ,500 Ballarat (C) Greater Bendigo (C) Wodonga (RC) Greater Geelong (C) Greater Bendigo (C) Bass Coast (S) Ballarat (C) Greater Geelong (C) Bass Coast (S) Regional Victoria 47

8 Future employment in regional Victoria Figure 4.10 illustrates employment by sector in regional Victoria in 2011, and employment estimates for Like metropolitan Melbourne, the population services sector (for example, Health care and social assistance and Retail trade) is currently the largest employer in regional Victoria with a 49 per cent share of total employment in 2011, and forecast to reach 50 per cent share in 2021, corresponding to employment growth of 15 per cent. With the exception of Primary industries, all sectors are projected to experience growth in employment in the period leading to The fastest growing sector will be the Construction and utilities industries, with combined estimated growth of 26 per cent and a 9 per cent share of total employment in Employment in business services, which accounted for 10 per cent in 2011, is projected to grow by 13 per cent, although its share of total employment is expected to remain much the same. Estimated employment growth by statistical region and selected key industries is illustrated in Figure The Health care and social assistance industry is expected to drive strong employment growth across regional Victoria, in particular in the Barwon Western District and in the Goulburn- Ovens-Murray. A significant proportion of new jobs will also be created in the Education and training industry. The continued diversification of regional Victoria s economy will result in the creation of greater job opportunities, supporting the strong population growth that regional Victoria will experience over the next 20 to 30 years. Figure 4.11: Forecast of employment growth in key industries by location (000s), regional Victoria, 2011 to 2021 Figure 4.10: Forecast of employment growth by industry (000s), regional Victoria, 2011 to Source: Deloitte Access Economics for DSDBI Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Education and Training All other industries Health Care and Social Assistance Retail Trade 48 Regional Victoria Source: Deloitte Access Economics for DSDBI Barwon-Western District: Greater Geelong (C), Colac-Otway (S), Corangamite (S), Glenelg (S), Golden Plains (S), Moyne (S), Queenscliffe (B), Southern Grampians (S), Surf Coast (S) and Warrnambool (C) Central Highlands-Wimmera: Ararat (RC), Ballarat (C), Hepburn (S), Hindmarsh (S), Horsham (RC), Moorabool (S), Northern Grampians (S), Pyrenees (S), West Wimmera (S) and Yarriambiack (S) Gippsland: Bass Coast (S), Baw Baw (S), East Gippsland (S), Latrobe (C), South Gippsland (S) and Wellington (S) Goulburn-Ovens-Murray: Alpine (S), Benalla (RC), Campaspe (S), Greater Shepparton (C), Indigo (S), Mansfield (S), Mitchell (S), Moira (S), Murrindindi (S), Strathbogie (S), Towong (S), Wangaratta (RC) and Wodonga (RC) Loddon-Mallee: Buloke (S), Central Goldfields (S), Gannawarra (S), Greater Bendigo (C), Loddon (S), Macedon Ranges (S), Mildura (RC), Mount Alexander (S) and Swan Hill (RC)

9 Movements within the regional workforce The Census journey to work data shows that regional Statistical Divisions exhibit a high selfcontainment rate (over 72 per cent), with most workers living and working in the same statistical division. This differs significantly from metropolitan Melbourne, where a large proportion of workers travel to other metropolitan regions for work. However, at a finer geographical level, journey to work characteristics in regional LGAs are influenced by their proximity to metropolitan Melbourne and regional centres with large workforces such as Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Shepparton and the Latrobe Valley. A high proportion of workers (up to 45 per cent) living in the peri-urban LGAs surrounding metropolitan Melbourne commute into metropolitan Melbourne for work. Figure 4.12: Employment self-containment within Statistical Divisions, regional Victoria, 2011 Working within own Statistical Region Working outside own Statistical Region Regional Victoria 49

10 Movements within the regional workforce Ratio of workers to households In contrast to metropolitan Melbourne, the ratio of workers to households in regional Victoria is relatively less varied between LGAs, ranging from 0.4 in Golden Plains Shire to 1.1 in Wodonga. The ratio differs relative to the proximity of the LGA to Melbourne and large regional centres, the size of major urban centres relative to rural population within the LGA, and whether the LGA has key tourism, public administration, health or education facilities. Figure 4.13: Map of ratio of workers to households, regional Victoria, 2011 With the exception of Greater Geelong, major regional centres are likely to have a higher ratio of workers per household. Greater Geelong s lower ratio is possibly due to its proximity to metropolitan Melbourne, which attracts 13 per cent of the municipality s workforce. Table 4.1: Ratio of workers to households, regional Victoria, 2011 Workers to households ratio Workers to households ratio Wodonga (RC) 1.11 Buloke (S) 0.83 Greater Shepparton (C) 1.01 Queenscliffe (B) 0.82 Horsham (RC) 1.00 Benalla (RC) 0.81 Ballarat (C) 1.00 Wellington (S) 0.79 Warrnambool (C) 0.97 Hindmarsh (S) 0.79 Wangaratta (RC) 0.96 Yarriambiack (S) 0.77 Corangamite (S) 0.95 Alpine (S) 0.77 Southern Grampians (S) 0.93 Gannawarra (S) 0.76 Ararat (RC) 0.93 Mount Alexander (S) 0.76 Swan Hill (RC) 0.91 Moira (S) 0.76 Colac-Otway (S) 0.91 East Gippsland (S) 0.75 Moyne (S) 0.90 Mitchell (S) 0.73 Northern Grampians (S) 0.90 Murrindindi (S) 0.73 Greater Bendigo (C) 0.89 Indigo (S) 0.72 South Gippsland (S) 0.88 Towong (S) 0.72 Greater Geelong (C) 0.87 Loddon (S) 0.71 Mildura (RC) 0.86 Surf Coast (S) 0.70 West Wimmera (S) 0.86 Strathbogie (S) 0.68 Mansfield (S) 0.85 Macedon Ranges (S) 0.67 Glenelg (S) 0.85 Central Goldfields (S) 0.66 Campaspe (S) 0.85 Hepburn (S) 0.65 Latrobe (C) 0.84 Pyrenees (S) 0.58 Baw Baw (S) 0.84 Moorabool (S) 0.57 Bass Coast (S) 0.84 Golden Plains (S) 0.41 and DPCD, Victoria in Future, Regional Victoria Horsham (RC) Ballarat (C) 0.4 to to to to or more Wodonga (RC) Greater Shepparton (C) and DPCD, Victoria in Future, 2012

11 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Agriculture specialisation Wheat and other cereals As noted previously, the majority of workers in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing industry are based in regional Victoria. This industry employed 8.5 per cent of all workers in regional Victoria and 2.6 per cent of all Victorian workers in As shown in Figure 4.12, agricultural jobs are spread throughout regional Victoria; however, the greatest densities occur in the farming regions of the Western District and Gippsland, and along the Murray River near Shepparton and Mildura. The following sections provide information on four of Victoria s key agricultural specialities: dairy, meat and livestock, fruit and vegetables, and wheat and other cereals. Figure 4.14: Agriculture, forestry and fishing employment, regional Victoria, 2011 Wheat and other grain farming takes place across Victoria s north western Loddon, Mallee and Wimmera regions. Wheat is included in the cereals and cereal preparations export item category, which is the major category within grain exports. Victorian grain exports were worth $1.3 billion in , 14.3 per cent of Australia s total grain exports. Grain exports increased by $146 million in the ten years to , driven by increased wheat exports. This reflects the better harvest conditions for Victoria s farmers after a period of prolonged drought and increased export demand for wheat products. The largest export markets for cereals and cereal preparations in were Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, along with other markets across Asia. Figure 4.15: Grain (wheat) growing employment in regional Victoria, 2011 Mildura (RC) Campaspe (S) Moira (S) Greater Shepparton (C) 1 to to 1,000 1,000 to 1,500 1,500 to 2,000 2,000 or more Mildura (RC) Buloke (S) Yarriambiack (S) Hindmarsh (S) Buloke (S) Loddon (S) Moira (S) 1 to to to to to 369 Horsham (RC) Moyne (S) Corangamite (S) Baw Baw (S) Wellington (S) South Gippsland (S) Regional Victoria 51

12 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Figure 4.16: Cereals and cereal preparations exports by destination ($ million), $250m $125m $25m Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Regional Victoria

13 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Agriculture specialisation Dairy Dairy farming is concentrated in the south of the Western District, along the Murray River area and in Gippsland. Dairy processing activity is located near farming activity, with concentrations of employment around Colac and Warrnambool in the west, Echuca and Kerang in the north and parts of Gippsland. Dairy is a large food sector in Victoria, with the value of raw milk production alone worth around $2.5 billion in Dairy and dairy processing goods exports totalled $1.9 billion in Victoria currently accounts for approximately 85 per cent of national dairy exports. Victoria s major export markets for dairy products were in Asia, specifically Japan, Singapore, Indonesia and China. Figure 4.18: Dairy processing employment, regional Victoria, 2011 Figure 4.17: Dairy farming employment, regional Victoria, to to to to 1,000 1,000 or more Moira (S) 1 to to to to or more Moyne (S) Corangamite (S) South Gippsland (S) Wellington (S) South Gippsland (S) 8 ABS, Value of Principal Agricultural Commodities Produced, Australia, Preliminary, (cat. no ) Regional Victoria 53

14 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Figure 4.19: Victorian dairy exports by destination ($ million), $410m $205m $41m 54 Regional Victoria Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2012

15 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Agriculture specialisation Meat and livestock The value of agricultural production of the meat and livestock sector in Victoria was approximately $3.1 billion in , with $1.6 billion in exports. The main export products were processed (fresh, chilled or frozen forms) beef and sheep. Australia s northern neighbours are also key export markets, with Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Malaysia and Singapore accounting for over $240 million of meat and livestock exports in Sheep and beef cattle farming establishments are located throughout the Grampians, Loddon Mallee and Barwon South West, as well as parts of Central Victoria and Gippsland. The United States was the largest single export market ($230 million) for Victorian meat and live animals in , followed by China ($166 million) and Japan ($146 million). The Middle East region is also a very significant market for Victorian meat and livestock (over $350 million in ). Figure 4.21: Meat processing employment, regional Victoria, 2011 Figure 4.20: Livestock farming employment, regional Victoria, to to to to or more 1 to to to to or more Loddon (S) Campaspe (S) Greater Bendigo (C) West Wimmera (S) Greater Bendigo (C) Wangaratta (S) Mount Alexander (S) Ararat (RC) East Gippsland (S) Moyne (S) Golden Plains (S) Baw Baw (S) Wellington (S) Geelong (S) Regional Victoria 55

16 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Figure 4.22: Victorian meat and livestock exports by destination ($ million), $230m $115m $23m Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Regional Victoria

17 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Agriculture specialisation Fruit and vegetables Much of Victoria s fruit and vegetable growing activity occurs within the metropolitan Melbourne boundary. Vegetable growing takes place in the market garden areas within the cities of Wyndham (Werribee) and Whittlesea, along the Mornington Peninsula and in the Cardinia and Yarra Ranges Shires. Fruit growing occurs in Cardinia and Yarra Ranges Shires, Greater Shepparton, Swan Hill, Campaspe, Moira, Goonawarra and Loddon. The Sunraysia district around Mildura in the north west stands out as the major grape growing area in regional Victoria, along with the Heathcote region (the Yarra Valley and Mornington Peninsula wine region lies predominantly within the boundary of metropolitan Melbourne). Victoria is also a significant producer of tomatoes, lettuces and mushrooms. Fruit and vegetable exports were worth $534 million in Major export markets for Victoria s fruit and vegetables are Hong Kong, India, United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Figure 4.24: Fruits and vegetable processing employment, regional Victoria, 2011 Figure 4.23: Fruits and vegetable growing employment, regional Victoria, to to to 150 Mildura (RC) Swan Hill (RC) 1 to to to to or more Campaspe (S) Greater Shepparton (C) 150 to or more Greater Shepparton (C) Ballarat (C) Regional Victoria 57

18 Special focus: Victoria s specialisation in Agriculture Figure 4.25: Victorian fruit and vegetable exports by destination ($ million), $70m $35m $7m Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Regional Victoria

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