Flickr: Randy Pertiet. Baltimore s Inner Harbor: Economic Impact, Importance, and Opportunities for Investment October 31, 2013

Transcription

1 Flickr: Randy Pertiet Baltimore s Inner Harbor: Economic Impact, Importance, and Opportunities for Investment October 31, 2013

2 Executive Summary: Baltimore s Inner Harbor drives substantial economic and fiscal impacts through tourism visitation and local business activity INNER HARBOR TOURISM + BUSINESS ACTIVITY $2.3 B in Overall Economic Activity 21,000 Jobs in the City and State $790 M in Employee Compensation $102 M in Annual Tax Revenue to the City and State * Source: Longwoods, 2012; Tourism Economics, 2013; ESRI BAO; IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. *Does not include local visitors HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 1

3 Introduction

4 About HR&A HR&A Advisors, Inc. is an industry leading real estate, economic development, and public policy consulting firm based in New York City, with offices in Washington, DC, and Los Angeles. The firm has worked with numerous local public agencies, civic organizations, and private sector organizations to support the revitalization of iconic urban waterfronts and public open spaces, ranging from Brooklyn Bridge Park and the High Line to the Toronto Waterfront and Boston s Rose Kennedy Greenway. In 2005 HR&A produced a report for Baltimore Waterfront Promenade Committee, The Baltimore Waterfront Promenade Parks and Public Spaces, that helped galvanize increased local attention to the Inner Harbor s importance and lead to the creation of the Waterfront Partnership of Baltimore (WPB). HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 3

5 About this Project HR&A was engaged by the Maryland Economic Development Corporation, with the support of the Waterfront Partnership of Baltimore (WPB), to assess the impact and importance of Baltimore s Inner Harbor and the high-level potential of improvements to one of its signature areas, Rash Field. The purpose of the study is to assist the WPB in describing the impact of the Inner Harbor in compelling, quantifiable terms and in making the case for increased public, private, and philanthropic investment in the Harbor to ensure it remains a strong driver Baltimore and Maryland s economy. The primary basis for the study area and potential Rash Field improvements are concepts contained in the Inner Harbor 2.0 Master Plan developed by Ayers Saint Gross for the WPB and the Greater Baltimore Committee. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 4

6 The Study, like Inner Harbor 2.0, focuses on the original Inner Harbor. The area is bounded by President St. to the East, E Pratt St. in the North, Light St. to the West, and the Key Highway to the South: an area of 0.2 square miles. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 5

7 The Inner Harbor has set a global standard for urban waterfront redevelopment. Heritage Award, 2009 Industrial Excellence and Substantial Contributions to the Greater Community s Well Being for at Least 25 Years Prix d Excellence, 1997 providing society with the optimal solution to its property needs Top Ten Waterfront Places Honor Award for Excellence on the Waterfront, 1991 Citation, 1984 one of the supreme achievements of large-scale urban design and development in U.S. history Honor Award, 1973 Source: Wallace Roberts & Todd, American Institute of Architects, and the International Real Estate Foundation HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 6

8 However, the Inner Harbor is beginning to show its age and has suffered from a lack of reinvestment. Limited activity on the promenade. Repairs needed to the promenade and surrounding areas. Outdated way finding and branding signs. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 7

9 Other cities meanwhile have re-invested in recent years in their waterfronts and downtowns, and a similar investment in the Inner Harbor could restore the Inner Harbor s iconic park status. Flickr: HBarrison Hudson River Park, New York City, NY. Brooklyn Bridge Park, New York City, NY Flickr: AndyNash Rose Kennedy Greenway, Boston, MA. Millennium Park, Chicago, IL. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 8

10 Millions These cities have been willing and able to make the public-private investments to keep their public parks vibrant and competitive. $600 Capital Investment $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $- Hudson River Park, NYC Brooklyn Bridge Park, NYC * Rose Kennedy Greenway, Boston Millennium Park, Chicago Source: HR&A Advisors * Projected HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 9

11 The Inner Harbor 2.0 Master Plan sets the stage for a new wave of investment in the Inner Harbor s future. Source: Ayers Saint Gross Master Plan HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 10

12 Concepts in the Plan for Rash Field have potential to serve as initial, catalytic investments. Vision for Rash Field Source: Ayers Saint Gross Master Plan HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 11

13 The Impact and Importance of the Inner Harbor

14 Relative Frequency of Searches The Inner Harbor remains a major reason people are interested in and visit Baltimore and Maryland Frequency of Google Searches in Source: Google Trends Pimlico Inner Harbor Navy Football National Aquarium Popular Maryland Attractions St. Michaels Google Trends analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms one has entered, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 13

15 Tourism is important to the State of Maryland s economy. 2011MARYLAND TOURISM 34.4 M VISITORS $14.3 B IN SPENDING SUPPORTS 130,000 DIRECT JOBS Source: Maryland Tourism, HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 14

16 Tourism is an especially important part of Baltimore s overall economy BALTIMORE TOURISM 23.3 M VISITORS $5.05 B IN SPENDING SUPPORTS 78,000 DIRECT AND INDIRECT JOBS Source: Longwoods International, and Tourism Economics, HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 15

17 Roughly 60% of all visitors to Baltimore visit the Inner Harbor and generate economic activity throughout the City INNER HARBOR TOURISM * 23.3 M BALTIMORE VISITORS 14 M INNER HARBOR VISITORS Source: Longwoods, & Visit Baltimore Study *Does not include local visitors HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 16

18 Economic activity in the Inner Harbor is driven by this tourism visitation, as well as business activity in the area INNER HARBOR TOURISM + BUSINESS ACTIVITY * 14 M INNER HARBOR VISITORS & 3,000 WORKERS AT INNER HARBOR BUSINESSES Source: Longwoods, 2012 & ESRI BAO *Does not include local visitors HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 17

19 Of those 14 million visitors, the average visitor spends $207 per trip, with $202 spent locally. Air Transport, 8% Local Transport, 9% Gas Stations, 3% Food & Beverage, 28% Retail, 14% Lodging, 23% $207 Source: Tourism Economics, 2013 & HR&A Analysis. Recreation, 15% HR&A s analysis of local spending in the Inner Harbor excluded Air Transport, bringing the average to $202 per trip. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 18

20 Summary: Baltimore s Inner Harbor drives substantial economic and fiscal impacts through tourism visitation and local business activity INNER HARBOR TOURISM + BUSINESS ACTIVITY $2.3 B in Overall Economic Activity 21,000 Jobs in the City and State $790 M in Employee Compensation $102 M in Annual Tax Revenue to the City and State * Source: Longwoods, 2012; Tourism Economics, 2013; ESRI BAO; IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. *Does not include local visitors HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 19

21 IMPLAN Methodology: Estimate of Economic Impacts The IMPLAN model is used to conduct economic impact analyses by leading public and private sector organizations across the United States, including a number of federal and state agencies. IMPLAN traces the pattern of commodity purchases and sales between industries that are associated with each dollar s worth of a product or service sold to a customer, analyzing interactions among 440 industrial sectors for a specific location, with assumptions about spending that takes place outside of the location. HR&A conducted its analysis with 2011 multipliers for the economy of Baltimore City and the State of Maryland. Multipliers are the total production requirements in the local economy for all goods and services consumed by final users in This is the most recent data available. The figure below illustrates the structure of economic impacts produced by the model. Multiplier or spinoff activity is comprised of two components: 1) indirect economic impacts caused by additional business spending stimulated by direct economic spending during construction and operating activities (e.g., supplier business operations) and 2) induced economic impacts stimulated by additional household spending due to wages Three from levels the direct of benefits and indirect activity. In addition to overall economic spending, the IMPLAN input-output model also produces estimates of the number of jobs supported and employee compensation. Compensation generated by the IMPLAN input-output model is based on a nationally recognized econometric model, customized for local economic conditions. It includes wage and salary income plus benefits and employer paid taxes. Overview of Economic Impacts, Direct, and Spinoff Effects Indirect Direct Indirect Induced Source: HR&A Advisors, Inc. Effects from spending immediately associated with project/industry/event Effects from business spending resulting from direct activities Effects from household spending resulting from direct activities Spinoff effects HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 20

22 IMPLAN Methodology HR&A estimated the economics impacts of Tourism spending and Inner Harbor employment on Baltimore City and the State of Maryland based on findings regarding visitor spending and motivations documented in previous studies and surveys: 1. A 2013 study by Tourism Economics for The Economic Impact of Tourism in Baltimore, estimates that the typical Baltimore visitor spends $207 per trip on lodging, local transportation, food & beverage, retail, gas stations, air transportation and recreation. This study combines spending across day-trippers and overnight visitors. HR&A counted $202 in local spending (excluding air travel) as inputs in IMPLAN. 2. A recent survey conducted for Visit Baltimore reveals that 60% of all visitors to Baltimore City spend time in the Inner Harbor, and 64% of visitors to Baltimore were motivated to come to Baltimore for discretionary leisure purposes such as a weekend getaway or vacation. The Visit Baltimore study is ongoing, and additional data could result in a different percentage of Baltimore visitors being credited with visiting the Inner Harbor. 3. A separate survey conducted for the National Aquarium in 2012, a major tourist draw in the Inner Harbor, revealed that 88% of Aquarium visitors chose to visit Baltimore primarily to visit to the Aquarium. 4. Based on these factors combined with our discussions with Baltimore tourism professionals and Inner Harbor venue operators, HR&A estimates that approximately 55% (88% of 64%) of the visitor spending by the 14 million visitors to the Inner Harbor is directly attributable to the presence of the Inner Harbor. In addition to visitor spending, HR&A included non-tourism related employment based in the Inner Harbor based on 2012 Dun & Bradstreet & ESRI data. HR&A included all NAICS employment categories except, Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting; Mining; Utilities; and those related to tourism, Retail Trade; Arts, Entertainment and Recreation; and Accommodation and Food Services. All spending and employment categories were modeled in IMPLAN using their corresponding industry codes. A multi-regional analysis was conducted within IMPLAN to connect the spending directly in Baltimore City to the larger statewide economy and trace the economic impacts of tourism spending and local employment throughout the statewide economy. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 21

23 Methodology: Approach to Overall Economic Output Attributable to the Inner Harbor. Tourists: 60% of all visitors to Baltimore visit the Inner Harbor.* Employees: Businesses directly in the Inner Harbor employ 3,000 people.*** Tourists: Visitor spending for 55% of the Inner Harbor tourists can be primarily attributed to the Inner Harbor. ** Employees: 54% of employees work in non-tourism related fields, such as Accounting, Real Estate, and Manufacturing*** Average visitor spending of Inner Harbor tourists, along with all non-tourism related jobs in the study area were the basis of the IMPLAN approach. The IMPLAN modeling calculates the Direct, Indirect and Induced impacts of the related economic activity. *Forthcoming study for Visit Baltimore ** HR&A estimate based on studies for Visit Baltimore and Sage Policy Group *** ESRI Business Analyst Online HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 22

24 The Economic Strength of the Inner Harbor

25 As Baltimore s primary leisure, entertainment, and recreation destination, the Inner Harbor drives Baltimore tourism. Power Plant Live! Harbor Place U.S.S. Constellation National Aquarium Pier 6 Pavilion Maryland Science Center HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 24

26 The Inner Harbor is home to many institutions at the core of Baltimore Tourism. Image: Yelp, Rain D. The Maryland Science Center. Flickr: WallyG The National Aquarium brings thousands of visitors to the Inner Harbor. Image: Yelp, Water Taxi Harbor Place provides a blend of food and retail shopping. Water taxis ferry users around the Inner Harbor. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 25

27 Inner Harbor-generated tourism spending and on-site business activity drives economic activity throughout Baltimore City and Maryland. $2.3 B OVERALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY $1.5 B DIRECT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN BALTIMORE CITY Source: IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. $520 M SECONDARY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN BALTIMORE CITY $250 M SECONDARY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IN MARYLAND HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 26

28 It also supports jobs throughout Baltimore s and the State s economies. 21,000 JOBS SUPPORTED BY THE INNER HARBOR 16,000 DIRECT JOBS IN BALTIMORE CITY 3,500 SECONDARY JOBS IN BALTIMORE CITY 1,500 SECONDARY JOBS IN MARYLAND Source: IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 27

29 These jobs generate significant compensation. $790 M EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION $540 M DIRECT COMPENSATION IN BALTIMORE CITY Source: IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. $180 M SECONDARY COMPENSATION IN BALTIMORE CITY $70 M SECONDARY COMPENSATION IN MARYLAND HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 28

30 And Inner Harbor-generated spending generates revenue for the City and State. $102 M TOTAL REVENUE TO THE CITY AND STATE Hotel Tax 2% $43.3 M TO BALTIMORE CITY $58.7 M TO MARYLAND Admissions 1% Sales & Service 8% Personal Property 4% Income Tax 22% Real Property 60% Inner Harbor Rentals 3% Corporate Income Tax 8% Source: Baltimore City Budget & Maryland Budget; HR&A Analysis. Sales Tax 32% Individual Income Tax 60% HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 29

31 Employees who work in the Inner Harbor are not limited to tourismrelated jobs. Companies located in the Inner Harbor employ about 3,000 people. Human Retail, 5% Other, 2% Services, 5% Entertainment & Recreation, 10% The Inner Harbor Supports: 54% NON-TOURISM Commercial Office, Manufacturing & Trade, Human Services, & Other Manufacturing & Trade, 22% Hospitality, 31% Commercial Office, 26% And 46% TOURISM Hospitality, Entertainment & Recreation, and Retail Source: ESRI BAO HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 30

32 Over a third of employees working in the Inner Harbor live in Baltimore City. Carroll County, 1% Inner Harbor Employees County of Residency Harford County, 3% Howard County, 6% Other, 18% Baltimore Baltimore City, city, 37% 37% Anne Arundel County, 8% Baltimore County, 27% Source: US Census, On The Map HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 31

33 Over 1,700 residential units have been completed or are planned near the Inner Harbor since W. Baltimore St. 205 Units: 2016 Mechanic Center :P1 306 Units: E. Lexington 102 Units: Light Street 445 Units: 2014 Mechanic Center :P2 170 Units: 2017 Calvert & Water St. 140 Units: 2014 The Vue Condos 112 Units: 2007 Source: Market Research Completed Development Proposed Development 1111 Light St 93 Units: 2012 The Ritz-Carlton Residences 190 Units: 2008 *Not all units shown on map; buildings Of 75 units or more. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 32

34 Baltimore's Population Downtown Inner Harbor Population Proximity to the Inner Harbor may have attracted residents to downtown Baltimore, even while the rest of the City s population has declined. The population within ½ of a mile of the Inner Harbor has increased by 25% between 1990 and 2010 while the same period of time saw a general population loss of 16% in the City of Baltimore. 760, , , , , , , , , , ,000 Source: ESRI BAO 25% 16% Population: Baltimore 1/2 ½ Mile from Inner Harbor HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 33

35 Average Household Income Residents of the Inner Harbor area have higher incomes than Baltimore City as a whole. While the average Household Income in Baltimore City has increased between 1990 and 2012, household incomes closer to the Inner Harbor have remained higher than households further away. $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 Baltimore, $31,000 Baltimore, $42,000 Baltimore, $53,000 Source: ESRI BAO $ ¼ Mile Radius from Inner Harbor Or 5 Minute Walk ½ Mile Radius from Inner Harbor Or 10 Minute Walk HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 34

36 Challenges Facing the Inner Harbor

37 The concepts in Inner Harbor 2.0 should make the Inner Harbor more appealing to local residents, as well as out of town visitors. Source: Ayers Saint Gross Master Plan HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 36

38 An increase in Inner Harbor tourism, within variations seen in past attendance records, could generate additional economic benefits. Inner Harbor attendance fluctuated between 4 8% during the Great Recession( ). + 8% VISITORS 1,400 MORE JOBS $48 M ANNUAL EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION $3.5 M ANNUAL CITY & STATE REVENUE Source: ESRI BAO; Tourism Economics 2013; Inner Harbor Coordinator Report; IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 37

39 Alternatively, a failure to invest in the Inner Harbor could lead to a decrease in Inner Harbor tourism, which could have negative economic impacts. Inner Harbor attendance fluctuated between 4 8% during the Great Recession( ). - 8% VISITORS -1,400 FEWER JOBS -$48 M LOSS IN ANNUAL EMPLOYEE COMPENSATION -$3.5 M LOSS IN ANNUAL CITY & STATE REVENUE Source: ESRI BAO; Tourism Economics 2013; Inner Harbor Coordinator Report; IMPLAN; HR&A Analysis. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 38

40 Works Cited Ayers Saint Gross, Master Plan for Baltimore s Inner Harbor. (Ayers Saint Gross) Baltimore Development Corporation, Inner Harbor Coordinator Annual Report, (Inner Harbor Coordinator Report) Bureau of the Budget and Management Research, Baltimore City, Summary of the Adopted Budget, FY (Baltimore City Budget) Department of Budget and Management, State of Maryland, Maryland Budget Highlights, FY (Maryland Budget) Longwoods International, Baltimore, 2012 Visitor Report (Longwoods, 2012) Maryland Tourism Development Board and the Department of Business and Economic Development, Fiscal Year 2012 Tourism Development Annual Report. (Maryland Tourism, 2012) Sage Policy Group, The Economic Contributions of the National Aquarium, October (Sage Policy Group) Visit Baltimore, Study on Baltimore Visitation, ongoing. (Visit Baltimore Study). Tourism Economics, The Economic Impact of Tourism in Baltimore, June (Tourism Economics, 2013) U.S. Census ESRI s Business Analyst Online. (ESRI BAO); and On The Map. (US Census, On The Map) HR&A Advisors, Inc. Baltimore Inner Harbor Economic Impact Study 39