Astronomy and Weather Forecasting

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1 American Meteorological Society Wright Memorial Chapter JUNE 2008 VOLUME 3, NUMBER 4 In this newsletter: Minutes from 24 April 2008 Meeting Ronald L. Rodney Obituary From the National AMS Picture of the Month Minutes from 24 April 2008 Meeting AMS Wright Memorial Chapter meeting of 24 April 2008 Meeting of Chapter with Dr. Steve Fiorino, President. Elsa s, Dayton, OH Space Weather Presentation by Paul Gehred Mr. Gehred introduced himself and provided a little information about his background in space weather and his past experiences as a space weather forecaster for the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) in Boulder CO. He mentioned that solar physics and particularly solar wind physics have made big strides since he left SWPC, then known as the Space Environment Laboratory, in the mid 1990s. The biggest cause of the scientific advances has come from many more sensors and more sophisticated sensors in space. The in-situ data providing the speed, density, and polarity of the solar wind plasma was a huge missing ingredient to early forecasters. Without the polarity of the solar wind, the best a forecaster could hope for in making geomagnetic storm forecasts was a 50% chance of success. Members enjoy Paul Gehred s talk on How Space Weather Impacts You. Space Weather Users include those involved in Navigation, Radio, Electric Power, Satellite Operations, the Aurora and the News Media. Impacts occur via electromagnetic radiation, energetic particles and electron clouds. The near-earth space environment is neither empty nor benign. So stated Lt Col Frederick in a space environment primer written in the mid-1990 s for DoD space operators. Then Mr Gehred launched into a slide presentation with numerous images of the sun in various wavelengths. It all begins with the sun, our star, our relatively normal star. We have very little understanding of the sun s interior dynamics aside from the fact it is a huge fusion engine releasing energy when hydrogen is fused into helium. Even the 22 year solar-cycle remains a mystery with its periodic years of extra activity called solar maximums and then followed by quieter solar minimum years. The flow of ions carries its own electromagnetic field and the sun s complex magnetic field can be observed by watching sunspots. When sunspot magnetic field lines break open they fling tons of hot solar plasma into space to create the solar

2 wind and space weather. According to Mr William Nolte in his book on engineering environments called Did I Ever Tell You about the Whale? the major factors in near-earth space are the sun (solar wind, flares, magnetic field), the earth and its magnetic field, the moon, and any matter that falls within the earth s orbit. Solar & geophysical activity can produce some quite significant and unpleasant impacts on space systems which operate in or through the near-earth environment. There are several types of enhanced solar emissions, each with its own characteristics and impacts. These include enhanced high energy radiation in the EUV and X-ray bands which impacts the earth at the speed of light in less than ten minutes from an active solar flare and coronal mass ejection. They affect dayside SATCOM and radar interference (specifically, enhanced background noise), LORAN navigation errors, and absorption of HF (3-30 MHz) radio communications. from Nolte. The solar plasma particles arrive later, first the high energy particles which can arrive lagging just minutes behind the radiation but usually take a few hours to half a day or so to arrive at the earth. These energetic particle events can last for two or three days at elevated levels before receding gradually like flood waters. Human space travelers lives are at great risk during large solar proton events. Spacecraft hardware also sustain damage in proton baths such as this. For example, solar panels lose efficiency and operators generally react by retracting the panels to avoid damage if given enough lead time by the forecast. Paul Gehred provided information on where to get Space Weather Information from the web sites of the National Weather Service, The Air Force and Private Companies. He also discussed available observations and prediction models. These events tend to energize the polar auroral electric fields causing havoc with satellite disorientation, collision damage to satellites and spacecraft, false sensor readings, LORAN navigation errors, and absorption of HF radio signals. Also lower energy particle streams (composed of both protons and electrons) may arrive at the Earth about 2 to 4 days after a flare. These particles cause geomagnetic and ionospheric storms which can last for hours to several days. Typical problems include: spacecraft electrical charging, drag on low orbiting satellites, radar interference, spacetrack errors, and radio wave propagation anomalies. These

3 impacts are most frequently experienced in the nightside sector of the Earth. from Nolte These particle streams often cause the auroral zone to increase southward and the Northern Lights which are often light green can become vivid red and can be seen as far south as Arizona in the US. One costly impact of this can be when direct current from the auroral electric field is induced into long transformer wires and begins to disrupt the AC-DC power grids. Transformers actually melted down in a famous solar event in March of 1989 in Montreal, Canada. This type of impact can be financially catastrophic if allowed to cascade through electrical transmission equipment. Minority Scholarship Evaluation Allison Schauer, Karen Kowalewsky, and Mary Bedrick evaluated four AMS minority scholarship applications. Results were forwarded to the National American Meteorological Society. Club Financials Dues for the Wright-Memorial chapter are $10 annually. Dues paying members are given the right to run and vote in chapter elections and participate in other chapter decisions. Dues were collected from members. Ronald L Rodney Obituary Compiled by Ronald Rodney s Coworkers at Wright-Patterson, AFB Ronald Ron Rodney was a long time member of the Wright-Memorial Chapter, one time Chapter President, and all around good guy. Ron Rodney passed away 4 February He is gone but not forgotten. In addition to his interest in meteorology and transmission modeling, Ron was an avid baseball fan. Pictured to the right is Ron s baseball card from the 2004 Cincinnati Reds Fantasy Camp. Biography Ron Rodney was born in Lima, Ohio, on 6 February 1943 and graduated from Elida High School in 1961 and Ohio Wesleyan University in While working on a BA in Chemistry at OWU, Ron worked at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base for the Aerospace Medical Research Laboratory and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration as a human guinea pig. He wore Gus Grissom s Mercury Astronaut space suit and lived in a spacecraft for 30 days with four other subjects for the spring of 1964 and He ate space food that was being developed for the astronauts. Ironically, he took weather observations of temperature and humidity inside the spacecraft. In the fall of 1965, Ron took education courses at Bluffton College and was awarded an Ohio teaching certificate. He taught chemistry, physics, and biology in Paulding County until the spring of In the summer of 1967, he studied biochemistry at the University of California at Berkeley on a National Science Foundation (NSF) fellowship. From July 1968 through the spring of 1969, Ron studied biochemistry at Temple University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on another NSF fellowship. Unable to finish the advanced degree program because of the impending draft, he joined the Air Force and received an Officer Training School commission in August 1969.

4 After completing the basic meteorology course at the University of Texas at Austin, Lieutenant Rodney was assigned to Castle Air Force Base, California. From 1971 through 1974, he supported Strategic Air Command (SAC) as a counter forecaster, chief forecaster, and SAC weather instructor. He also served as president of the Junior Officer Council. From September 1974 through February 1976, Captain Rodney attended the University of Maryland at College Park on an Air Force Institute of Technology assignment and was awarded a Master of Science degree in meteorology. Assigned to 1st Weather Wing at Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii, Captain Rodney was Chief of Climatology, then Chief of Plans until July 1980, when he was reassigned to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, where he supported the Aeronautical Systems Division, Air Force Systems Command, as a staff meteorologist until his separation from the Air Force in September Ron worked as a civil service meteorologist at Operating Location A, US Air Force Environmental Technical Applications Center in Asheville, North Carolina, until he was hired for the staff meteorologist position at Wright- Patterson Air Force Base in December He also joined the Indiana Air National Guard, serving in various positions culminating in command of the 207th Weather Flight, in which he also served as the Staff Weather Officer to the 38th Infantry Division, both located in Indianapolis, Indiana. He retired as a Lieutenant Colonel in September Lieutenant Colonel Rodney was a graduate of Squadron Officer School (in residence), Air Command and Staff School, and Air War College. As an officer, he also completed numerous short courses such as the Army Intelligence Staff Weather Officer Orientation, Squadron Commander School, Tropical Meteorology, tactical Goldwing and Wraase operations, and the Air University s Reserve Officer Course. As a civilian, Ron had certificates for completing various acquisition, technical, personnel, and management classes. Ron s last assignment was as a staff meteorologist assigned to Detachment 3, Air Force Weather Agency, supporting the Sensors Directorate of the Air Force Research Laboratory. An expert in atmospheric transmission modeling, he helped scientists and engineers in the Sensors Directorate and its predecessor organizations, as well as decision makers across the Department of Defense, understand and mitigate the atmosphere s effects on electrooptic, infrared, and laser energy propagation. Ron s wife of 38 years, Marilyn, is a Registered Nurse from Allentown, Pennsylvania, with Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degrees. They have three children Lisa (1972), Chris (1975), and Jeff (1980) and two grandchildren. Ron died on 4 February To see the entire policy statement go to: olicy/2008spaceweather_ amsstatement.pdf From the National AMS AMS Issues Policy Statement on Space Weather A Policy Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 5 May 2008) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89 SUMMARY STATEMENT. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) recognizes the importance of space weather research and services, and the need to develop advanced forecasting and mitigation techniques. Because of our increasing reliance on technologies susceptible to space weather and the demonstrated importance of space weather to society, the AMS strongly endorses activities and investments that further our understanding of this

5 Information about the entire 89th Annual AMS Meeting can be found at: meet/annual/ The 89th Annual AMS Meeting will be held in Phoenix, AZ January 2009 Preliminary programs, registration, hotel, and general information will be posted on the AMS Web site later this year Shutterbugs Submit your latest and greatest weather shots to our newsletter! Send them via to: cross-disciplinary science and its practical applications. Upcoming meetings of interest Space and Near Space 15th Conference on Middle Atmosphere, 8 12 June 2009, Stowe, VT Abstract Deadline: 2 February 2009 Preregistration Deadline: 27 April 2009 Manuscript Deadline 3 June 2009 Initial Call Published: TBD Sixth Symposium on Space Weather, January 2009, Phoenix, Arizona The Sixth Symposium on Space Weather, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society will be held January 2009, as part of the 89th AMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona. Fifth Annual Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems-NPOESS and GOES-R, January 2009, Phoenix, Arizona The Fifth Annual Symposium on Future National Operational Environmental Satellite Systems-National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-Series (GOES-R), sponsored by the American Meteorological Society, and organized by the NPOESS and GOES-R Symposium Committee will be held on Tuesday and Wednesday, January 2009, as part of the 89th AMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix, Arizona. Picture of the Month Photograph by Mary Bedrick. Contrails with shadows at sunset, 12 March, 2008, Beavercreek, OH. AMS Wright Memorial Chapter President: Steve Fiorino Steven.fiorino@afit.edu Vice President: Allison Schauer aschauer2002@hotmail.com Secretary: Paul Gehred Paul.gehred2@wpafb.af.mil Treasurer: Karen Kowalewsky kjkowal@verizon.net Web Master: John Turnbull John.turnbull@wpafb.af.mil Newsletter Editor Mary Bedrick Mary.bedrick@wpafb.af.mil We re on the Web! /wrightmem/index.html