GLOBAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISKS, IMPACTS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER POLICIES AND INITIATES

Transcription

1 GLOBAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC RISKS, IMPACTS, AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR SPACE WEATHER POLICIES AND INITIATES Emma Kiele Fry University of Alabama in Huntsville, United States, Space weather impacts global technological systems and societies. Space weather, or the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment and its impacts on technological systems, can produce coronal mass ejections, solar energetic particles, and geomagnetic disturbances. These space weather events can cause extreme currents in wires, widespread blackouts, and phone and internet communication failures both in space and within the Earth s atmosphere. Severe space weather can damage satellites used for global positioning, communications, and weather forecasting. It also creates a risk of radiation sickness to astronauts and commercial airline crews and passengers. Accurate forecast knowledge of the space weather threat and timing of events is critical to planning and preparation to minimize socio-economic impacts. This paper reviews the scope of the space weather threat on the global community today. It describes current international and federal public policy initiatives to mitigate risk to infrastructure, public safety, and human life. It will examine recent international reports and federal disaster reduction plans to meet these challenges as society becomes increasingly reliant on vulnerable technologies. This paper will provide recommendations to increase public awareness and implement public policies to prepare, prevent, and recover from possible catastrophic failures of commercial and government infrastructures caused by a major space weather event. I.I Risks I. INTRODUCTION On September 1, 1859, Richard Carrington witnessed a white-light solar flare on the surface of the sun. This solar storm remains the largest on record in 450 years. 1 The following morning, aurora borealis were observed as far south as Cuba and Hawaii. The resulting geomagnetic storm silenced telegraph systems around the globe, and in some cases produced electrical currents strong enough to light telegraph paper on fire. Over 150 years later, the effect of a Carrington-level event on today s technology-dependent society would be catastrophic. The increased sophistication of susceptible technologies dramatically raises our vulnerability to space weather events. Space weather consists of the dynamic conditions on the Sun and in the space environment and its impacts on technological systems. Large solar storms produce coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that interact with the Earth s atmosphere which create geomagnetic storms. 2 Over several hours or days, these geomagnetic storms can induce powerful electric currents in the atmosphere and the ground that can surge through natural rock and man-made structures such as power lines and pipelines. 2 These extra electrical currents are particularly dangerous to power grids, by potentially causing transformers on high-voltage transmission lines to overheat and burn out. Powerful electrical currents can also cause corrosion damage to oil and gas pipelines. According to the Electronic Power Research Institute, a power transformer can take two months to be replaced if it is in stock, and as long as two years if one must be manufactured. 3 A large geomagnetic storm could result in the complete collapse of power grids or blackouts. Geomagnetic storms can also cause electric charges in space that impact electronic systems onboard spacecraft, degrade satellite navigation (such as GPS receivers), and disrupt HF radio propagation used in aircraft communications. 4 In December 2006, a solar storm damaged part of the GOES satellite solar x-ray imager, and also caused an unexpectedly severe disruption to the GPS navigation system. The airline industry s dependence on GPS is increasing and a similar space weather event could impact aviation navigation with potentially disastrous consequences during takeoffs and landings. 5 Solar storms produce radiation hazards to humans. Astronauts outside the protection of a shielded spaceship or on the surface of the moon or a planet can be exposed to high levels of radiation during a solar storm. Airline passengers and crews are also at risk of additional radiation exposure to a lesser extent. Many airlines now fly faster and more economical routes at Page 1 of 7

2 higher elevations and at higher latitudes, often over the poles. 4 In 1989, a solar flare produced a geomagnetic storm that caused the collapse of the transmission system for Canada s Hydro Quebec electricity provider leaving millions of people without power for more than nine hours. 3 This space weather event also produced enough energetic particles that could have killed an astronaut on the Moon, wearing only a spacesuit, from acute radiation sickness. 5 The late October and early November solar storms of 2003 caused power outages in Europe and permanently damaged transformers in South Africa. 4 The following figure shows the interplanetary shock wave and CME just as they arrive at Earth at 0600UT on 29 October 2003 and initiate an intense geomagnetic storm. A massive space weather event today would potentially cost over $2 trillion globally. 7 However, space weather can have a global economic impact even in the absence of a major event. A 2004 study by Dr. Kevin Forbes, Chair of the Department of Business and Economics at the Catholic University of America, concluded that a relationship exists between space weather and the real-time market price in the New York wholesale electricity market. 8 Lloyd s of London published a 2010 risk insight briefing outlining the space weather risk and implications to businesses. The report described a series of space weather events in January of 2005 that cause degradation of HF radio links with trans-polar flights. This interruption of radio communications cause airlines to re-route twenty-six flights during this time period requiring costly refueling stops and a reduction in cargo capacity. 9 II. CURRENT INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS Figure A: HAFv2 real-time forecast of the interplanetary magnetic field following the very large *X17.2/4B solar event on 28 October *GOES X-ray classification "X17.2" and optical classification "4 Brilliant" solar flare; the second largest solar flare observed during Solar (Activity) Cycle 23 ( ). I.II Impacts A future Carrington-level event could cause a large geomagnetic storm that would threaten worldwide energy supplies, air transport, telecommunications, and other critical infrastructure. 6 Given the global nature of today s economy, a widespread disaster caused by such a geomagnetic storm would have global implications, even if the immediate damage was contained to one hemisphere. The distribution of food, medication, water and other vital necessities might be disrupted with catastrophic consequences to public health and safety. The international community recognizes the implications of a catastrophic space weather event. The director of the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (U.S. FEMA), W. Craig Fugate, stated: Addressing such a large-scale disaster in purely national terms is not sufficient and requires international cooperation. 10 A joint statement following the 1st EU- US Expert Meeting on Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) stressed that the interconnectivity and interdependence of today's essential services mean that disruptions to or destruction of a networked infrastructure anywhere in the world may have disruptive effects somewhere else. 11 Several international committees, workgroups and forums recently convened to recommend initiatives to create public policies to mitigate risk to infrastructure, public safety, and human life. II.I International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) In 2009, the United Nations Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space proposed the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) as a new agenda item. The IWSI is open to scientists from all countries and aims to expand and deploy new and existing instrument arrays, promote the coordination of data products to predict future space weather conditions, and support public outreach projects to promote the relevance of heliophysical research to scientists from other disciplines, and to the public at large. 12 This three-year plan will work to expand collaborative efforts in the international community to prepare for space weather events by Page 2 of 7

3 II.II Geomagnetic Storm Workshop In February of 2010, U.S. FEMA, the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) planned and hosted The Workshop on Managing Critical Disasters in the Transatlantic Domain The Case of a Geomagnetic Storm. The workshop summary concludes that the meeting strengthened transatlantic emergency management ties, increased awareness among both U.S. and EU stakeholders of the dangers posed by severe space weather, and identified several specific opportunities to increase preparedness. The workshop concluded with numerous recommendations including: (a) improving forecast capabilities, (b) fostering information exchange between operations centers, (c) integrating space weather experts in the emergency management sector, (d) expanding the protection and resiliency of critical infrastructure, (e) prioritizing scarce critical resources in the international domain, (f) enhancing education and public outreach, (g) sharing the results of disaster exercise programs both nationally and internationally. 10 II.III Space Weather Enterprise Forum In the United States, the Space Weather Enterprise Forum (SWEF), which meets annually, shared information among policymakers, researchers, media and service providers to raise awareness of space weather and it s effects on society. The 2010 SWEF Summary Report outlines several objectives similar in nature to those proposed by the Geomagnetic Storm Workshop. SWEF s 2010 focus was on building an informed and resilient society in the next decade, particularly as we approach the next solar activity peak expected in II.IV European and U.S. Space Weather Week In Brussels, the seventh annual European Space Weather Week, convened in November 2010, examined current space weather warning models, products, and services that will be utilized by the European Space Agency s Space Situational Awareness Preparatory Programme in support of critical European infrastructure. 14 In Boulder, Colorado, the U.S. also hosts an annual Space Weather Week. The April 2011 meeting focused on continuing to foster communication and awareness in the space weather community as well as with the public at large. III. COMMON INTERNATIONAL OBJECTIVES Many of the objectives and recommendations of these meetings were similar and in this order of priority: I) More accurate space weather forecast capabilities, II) Better technologies that are more resistant to the negative effects of space weather, III) Policy initiatives to mitigate risk to communications, power supply and human life, IV) Greater international collaboration to share research, V) Better promotion of education and public outreach programs. As a result, several new policies and programs have been implemented recently to achieve these five goals. III.I Space Weather Forecast Capabilities Space weather forecasting has improved dramatically over the past three decades. In October 2006, the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency implemented the first physics-based global heliospheric forecast model, Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry Version 2 (HAFv2), into operations. 15 In January 2011, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S. NOAA), announced the transition from research to operations of the first magnetohydrodynamic physicsbased space weather prediction model named ENLIL. These models provide forecasters with a 1-4 day advance warning of solar plasma and CMEs directed at Earth. 16 Since August 2006, the European Digital Upper Atmosphere Server (DIAS), co-funded by the European Union has regularly provided space weather forecasts of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity. 17 In 2010, the Chinese Academy of Sciences unveiled a 15 year Space Weather Strategic Plan focused on building physical and forecast models to enhance space weather monitoring capabilities and forecast accuracy. 18 III.II Resistant Technologies Many organizations are developing technologies that are more resistant to negative space weather effects. A 2011 resolution of the U.S. National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (U.S. NARUC) stresses the need for investment in hardening infrastructure through complete metal shielding or tailored hardening of critical elements to reduce vulnerabilities to space weather threats. 19 In March 2010, an international effort to protect infrastructure was also discussed at the European Union (EU) and U.S. Expert Meeting on Critical Infrastructure Protection (EU-US Meeting on CIP). Page 3 of 7

4 III.III Policy Initiative To Protect Infrastructure The US and EU have also created policy initiatives to mitigate risk to communications, power supply and human life. In 2007, NASA began a collaborative effort with the Electronic Power Research Institute (ERPI) named the Solar Shield Project. This Project uses space weather monitoring data and forecasts to provide participating utilities in the North American power industry with 1-2 day warnings of potential space weather threats. 3 The Project also provides detailed options to utilities to reduce the risk of damage to infrastructure. These options range from postponing maintenance of critical lines during the space weather event, to closing down the entire grid to reduce the impact of powerful electric currents. The European Union plans to launch SPACECAST, a similar solarstorm alert project in March of III.IV International Collaboration The international community continues to collaborate and share research. The 2010 EU-US Meeting on CIP opened international dialogue and outlined a strategic plan for protecting critical infrastructure internationally. Future international meetings and workshops are planned to further the cooperation of the global space weather community. III.V Education and Public Outreach The need for more comprehensive education and public outreach programs was often recommended by each international meeting. In November 2007, more than 100 international scientists met at the IHY-Africa Space Weather Science and Education Workshop in Ethiopia to promote international cooperation and to promote the importance of space weather education. The workshop noted that Africa is in a unique geographic location to be able to provide an opportunity to fill a gap in observations. This workshop also outlined specific areas of improvement, including providing more space weather research opportunities and enhancing the availability of internet connectivity on the African continent to facilitate this goal. 20 In the summer of 2011, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, the German Aerospace Center, and the University of Rostock, co-hosted a two-week Joint Space Weather Summer School, open to graduate and undergraduate students. This School promoted space physics through visits to various German and US space weather monitoring facilities, first-hand experience with monitoring and applications, and lectures and hands-on project-work. 21 The previously mentioned Geomagnetic Storm Workshop in 2010 also recommended the specific use of social media to educate the public on space weather and its impacts. Although there are several organizations currently utilizing social media to promote space weather, however there is not much international collaboration towards this goal, and many of these social media pages are not regularly maintained. IV. RECOMMENDATIONS It is important for the international community to continue to expand space weather programs and initiatives in all of the areas of opportunity outlined by recent international meetings. Many improvements have been made with more accurate forecast models, resistant technologies, and policy initiatives to mitigate societal risk. These objectives remain important goals for the space weather community. However the greatest opportunity for advancement remains in the ability of the space weather community to promote public education and awareness. The space weather community s first priority, not its last, must be connecting with the public. Public education and awareness is vital to the promotion and funding of additional research and development opportunities in space weather. Given the potential global societal impact of a severe space weather event, it is also imperative that the public at large have a better understanding of space weather, its effects, and ways to prepare for and recover from these impacts. People fear what they do not know and support what they understand. A better comprehension of space weather and its effects will help the public to make reviewing space weather forecasts and events an important part of their daily lives. Surveys conducted in the United States and Europe report that citizens have a basic understanding of space science, although most people are unaware that space weather impacts the Earth. 22 The promotion of student educational programs and summer camps is important to continue to promote interest in the field of heliospheric physics, and to create the next generation of space physicists. However, these programs are not particularly beneficial to or accessible by the public at large. In a July 2011 perspective, the New England Journal of Medicine noted the importance of using inexpensive social media to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters. 23 Although, the perspective specifically focused on the need to use social media to promote public health, the same principles should be applied to promote space weather. Social media use has grown rapidly around the globe. Facebook currently reports over 750 million Page 4 of 7

5 active users, with over half of those users visiting the site at least once per day. 24 Seventy percent of Facebook s users are outside of the United States. Twitter reports over 175 million worldwide users. Social media offers a simple and clean format with an audience of millions of users at very little cost. 24 A 2010 study of over 1,000 news releases revealed that social media news releases earned three times more coverage than traditional releases. 24 In particular, social media can promote space weather awareness through real-time forecasts and news releases. These space weather forecasts offer numerous benefits to the public, ranging from warnings and alerts of possible negative impacts, to aurora borealis forecasts for travellers wanting to observe a beautiful natural phenomenon. Several atmospheric weather organizations are successfully using social media to promote awareness and provide warnings. For example the World Meteorological Organization and the U.S. National Weather Service actively maintain both Facebook and Twitter pages with more than 70,000 subscribers. 25 Several space weather organizations also have social media pages, including the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center, and the Egyptian Space Weather Monitoring Center on Facebook, and the South African Space Weather Regional Warning Centre, and the British Geological Survey - Space Weather on Twitter, however none of these pages have more than 3,000 subscribers. 25 Maintaining a social media page is an inexpensive way to reach a large audience quickly. These social media pages can provide general information on space weather to dispel common myths such as: a solar radiation storm can cause acute radiation sickness on Earth; and, a massive solar flare will cause the end of the world in U.S. FEMA currently uses social media to provide the public with tips to develop family and community disaster plans with an emphasis on preparedness. Space weather social media pages can also provide similar information to the public on preparing for a wide range of space weather events, from a catastrophic geomagnetic storm that impacted a large portion of the power grid, to a smaller storm that reduced communications or GPS availability for a few hours. Traditionally, the media has controlled education and public outreach. Information was disseminated to the public via press releases to the media. The media then controlled who, what, when, where, why, and how the press releases were published. Social media presents an inexpensive opportunity for scientists and policymakers to control the dissemination of information directly to the public. This information is not filtered by the media and is immediately available to users. Social media will promote the need for adequate funding and support of space weather research and development projects. Social media pages can be used to inform the public of projects like Solar Shield and SPACECAST and to promote the need for industry support. Social media is a simple format that the general public is already familiar with and it will make space weather concepts more accessible to a larger audience. Social media can also be used to enhance international efforts to collaborate on space weather programs. It can promote global cooperation to help mitigate the societal impacts of a catastrophic geomagnetic storm and to quickly coordinate potential recovery efforts before the disaster. V. CONCLUSIONS There have been numerous recent advancements in space weather, particularly in the arena of international efforts to collaborate on research and the development of policies and programs to mitigate risks to society and technology. The global space weather community is underutilizing social media. It is time to bring space weather and its impacts to the forefront of public awareness through social media resources that already have hundreds of millions of users. Space weather needs to make more Friends and attract more Followers. Acknowledgments This research was made possible by The Office of the Vice President for Research at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. Figure A of the HAFv2 realtime solar wind forecast of the interplanetary magnetic field was provided courtesy of Exploration Physics International, Inc., Huntsville, AL. Page 5 of 7

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