Solar Storms and Northern lights - how to predict Space Weather and the Aurora

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1 Solar Storms and Northern lights - how to predict Space Weather and the Aurora Pål Brekke Norwegian Space Centre/UNIS Pål Brekke torsdag 12. mars 15

2 Fleet of satellites watching the Sun Stereo SDO SOHO ACE torsdag 12. mars 15

3

4 Monitoring the Sunspot magnetic field

5 Close up of a flare! Hinode torsdag 12. mars 15

6 Look for filaments on the disk

7 Follow a CME from the Sun to the Earth 7 torsdag 12. mars 15

8 The Solar Wind also Creates Northern Lights A constant stream of particles flows from the Sun s corona, with a temperature of about a million degrees and with a velocity of about 1.5 million km/h. Gusts in the solar wind will buffet our magnetosphere and lead to a geomagnetic storm. torsdag 12. mars 15 8

9 Predicting Auroras - Coronal Holes The fastest solar wind originates from the dark areas on the image, called coronal holes. Such holes often occur close to the polar regions, but can sometimes also be observed close to the equator. By tracking coronal holes one can provide several days advanced forecasts 9 NASA torsdag 12. mars 15

10 Monitoring the Solar Wind and IMF 10 torsdag 12. mars 15

11 Proton shower «blinded» the ACE detectors

12 The magnetosphere

13 The magnetosphere

14 Interplanetary Magnetic Field

15 When do strong storms occure?

16 How effective wil the storm be? The solar wind also carries with it the magnetic field of the Sun. This field will have either a North or South orientation. If the solar wind has energetic bursts, contracting and expanding the magnetosphere, or if the solar wind takes a southward polarization, geomagnetic storms can be expected. The southward field causes magnetic reconnection of the dayside magnetopause, rapidly injecting magnetic and particle energy into the Earth's magnetosphere Same direction - small interaction - CME «glides by» Sun s magnetif field Magnet with same poarity Earth s magnetif field torsdag 12. mars 15

17 How effective wil the storm be? Opposit direction - strong interaction - strong geomagetic storm Sun s magnetif field Earth s magnetif field torsdag 12. mars 15

18 Sequence of events for Geomagnetic Forecast torsdag 12. mars 15

19 Space Weather Forecasts

20 Space Weather Forecasts

21 Space Weather Forecasts

22 Space Weather Scales IMPACTS: Arrival: hours Duration: hours to a day Power grid operations Satellite operation Aircraft operations GPS Pipelines IMPACTS: Arrival: 30 min to several hours Duration: hours to days Satellite operation/loss Aviation (comm/exposures) HF outage (polar regions) Manned spaceflight IMPACTS: Arrival: 8 min 20 s Duration: minutes to 3 hours GPS network Communication (ground/space) Radar Manned spaceflight torsdag 12. mars 15

23 Space weather warnings torsdag 12. mars 15

24 Space Weather Forecasts

25 Space Weather Forecasts

26

27 Space weather warnings torsdag 12. mars 15

28 Space weather warnings torsdag 12. mars 15

29 The aurora over North-America tonight torsdag 12. mars 15

30 Aurora forecaster in Norway torsdag 12. mars 15

31 The UNIS Aurora forecaster Download at: The 37th Annual European Meeting on Atmospheric by Optical Methods, Valladolid, Spain, August torsdag 12. mars 15

32 When do strong storms occure?

33 When do strong storms occure?

34 Solar cycle and geomagnetic disturbances

35

36 Super Storms According to a study by the Metatech Corporation, the occurrence today of an event like the 1921 storm would result in large-scale blackouts affecting more than 130 million people and would expose more than 350 transformers to the risk of permanent damage...and an estimate of $1 trillion to $2 trillion during the first year alone was given for the societal and economic costs of a severe geomagnetic storm scenario with recovery times of 4 to 10 years. torsdag 12. mars 15 36

37 When do strong storms occure? 1859 Storm 1921 Storm torsdag 12. mars 15

38 Current Space Weather conditions

39 Current Solar conditions

40 Current Solar conditions - far side

41 Current Solar conditions

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