Space Weather Forecasts for Civil Aviation & Spaceflight. Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado

Transcription

1 Space Weather Forecasts for Civil Aviation & Spaceflight Bill Murtagh NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado Space Weather, Aviation, and Spaceflight: Opportunities for Space Weather Research January 2008

2 Aviation & Space Weather Policy Study Policy Workshop, Nov 06 Organized by AMS and SolarMetrics, in coordination with the FAA, NOAA/SEC, NSF, and NextGen/JPDO. Objective was to improve the safety and operations of the nation s aviation system through better integration of space weather information. Highlights & Full Report online at:

3 Some Key Policy Workshop Recommendations Define requirements for space weather information and how it is incorporated into the operational decision making process Deliver space weather information in an internationally agreed upon standardized format as defined by the aviation user requirements Increase the interaction between the aviation community and the space weather research and service provider community

4 Major Activities since Workshop Workshop Report presented to Congressional Offices Space Weather Research introduced into FAA Reauthorization bill (HR 2881) SEC Research Reviews and Assessments (1) conduct or supervise research projects on impacts of space weather to aviation, including communication, navigation, avionic systems, and on airline passengers and personnel Cross Polar Working Group Space Weather Sub-group (UAL HQ; August 10, 2007) First draft of requirements developed New radiation storm alerts and thresholds proposed New host identified for one-stop shopping for space weather products Cross Polar Working Group general meeting (Edmonton, Alberta; Sept. 2007) Draft requirements presented to members including FAA, major airlines, ICAO, IATA, and NavCanada ATC needs added

5 Cross Polar Working Group The Cross Polar WG addresses aviation issues between North America and Russia, focusing on continued improvements to operational efficiency through enhanced coordination, harmonized procedures and implementation of new technologies. Annual Traffic Per Carrier in Jan - Aug Most major airlines represented UAL COA ACA KAL CPA CCA THA AAL SIA CES NWA AIC DAL N/A Other critical aviation agencies are participating: -FAA - ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) - IATA (International Air Transportation Association) - Russian Air Traffic Control

6 Establishing Requirements 7-Day 24 hour 12 hour 6 hour Current Outlook X X X X Warning X X Alert Update X As needed Sample Text Products Space Weather Outlook 06 December 13 December 2007 Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels, with isolated major flare activity possible. HF communications will likely experience periods of blackout conditions at high latitudes due to solar radiation storms. A major radiation storm is possible. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active levels through 11 December, and quiet thereafter. Sample Graphical Products

7 The Way Ahead Initiate new Space Weather Services website (spaceweather.org) Complete installation of Riometer network to measure real-time radio absorption (Geological Survey of Canada) Finalize requirements document through coordination with the Cross Polar Working Group Introduce new radiation alerts and thresholds to help decision making during Solar Radiation Storms Introduce new radio absorption product Continue efforts to develop aviation space weather training curricula for aviation operators and meteorologists

8 Aircraft Operations D-region Absorption Communications Product HF is still critical in aviation

9 Forecast Challenges From the 07 Sep SEC Forecast III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep-10 Sep Class M 70/75/75 Class X 30/30/30 Proton 60/50/40 The x-ray x plot on Sep 07, 2005!

10 Problem Event! August 16, 2001

11 November 1, 2004

12 January 20, 2005 Region 720 Produces Powerful Radiation Storm The X7 flare on 20 January 2005 was associated with the most highly energetic radiation storm of Solar Cycle 23. The >100 MeV protons reached 652 pfu, making it the strongest >100 MeV event of this cycle and the strongest since Oct 1989 (680 pfu).

13 Prediction Model Output Probability for a proton event Peak Flux Time of rise to maximum

14 Predicted Flux Verification of SEC Model Based on events Lots of scatter Correlation: RMS error in the prediction of the logarithm: 0.902

15 Probability Calculation Based on integrated x-ray flux, peak x-ray flux, and occurrence of type II and type IV radio sweeps Current model was developed in 1998 and uses historical statistics Example: Integrated flux [ ] X-ray class [M3-M8] Radio sweep type II and type IV: 16 such events historically, 6 of which were associated with proton events => 37.5 % probability (±12%)

16 Other Inputs Source Location Rise time

17 CME velocity Proton events show an association with fast CMEs Consistent with expectations from shock-acceleration of particles Additional parameters under study

18 CME Propagation Models Shock Time of Arrival (STOA-2) Model The STOA model is based on similarity theory of blast waves, modified by the pistondriving concept, that emanate from point explosions Empirical CME Arrival Model Gopalswamy et al. (2000) developed an empirical model to predict the transit time of CMEs from the Sun to 1 AU based on coronagraphic observations of CME speeds near the Sun and insitu observations of ICMEs. Empirical Shock Arrival Model Gopalswamy et al. (2005) extended the CME arrival model of Gopalswamy et al. (2000, 2001) to predict the arrival time at 1 AU of IP shocks. They used a simple gas dynamic piston driven shock relationship to derive the standoff distance (and thus the standoff time) between the shock and the piston. c. We recommend that none of these models should be used to forecast the arrival of IP shock or ICME at Earth or L1 with an accuracy better than ± 24 hours. Determination of the Optimal Model Input Data Source for Predicting ICME Arrival at Earth S. P. Plunkett and A. Vourlidas, Nov 2007

19 Feel my pain Sent:* Monday, July 11, :21 AM *Subject:* Solar flare enquiry Dear Sir, I am trying to fly my children and pregnant wife from London to Boston but have had to delay the trip several times because my wife is concerned about your solar flare predictions! She is quite an anxious person and had been traveling your website and worrying about risk of radiation on the fetus. The airline and Cancer Research UK and other sources tell me that for one 7 hour flight there is negligible risk even if we are flying during a solar flare. However this does not alleviate my wife's fear. Whilst the prediction of "m class" flare is at 50%, where it has been for several days, she will not fly. Obviously it is quite difficult making flight plans if you only have 24 hours notice!! I wondered if there is anyone we can talk to from your office to further understand this risk and the prediction rates? I would be most grateful if you could get back to me asap... Best regards, N.B.

20 Questions?