Market analysis for small scale wind turbines Nicaragua,

Transcription

1 Market analysis for small scale wind turbines Nicaragua, WEAthens2014 Wind Empowerment 2 nd Global Conference 3 rd -7 th November 2014 Jon Sumanik-Leary, Lâl Marandin, Mathais Craig, Christian Casillas

2 Summary The history of small wind in Nicaragua Quantifying the potential of the technology in Nicaragua Realising the potential

3 The history of small wind in Nicaragua

4 Wind power in Nicaragua Capacidad instalada (MW) Big wind A big success! Small wind blueenergy took the decision to stop implementing small wind for our community projects in the Caribbean... Mathias Craig, Director & Founder, blueenergy

5 Fundamental problems Small wind on the Caribbean coast Low wind resource High frequency of failures Low capacity to perform maintenance

6 Caribbean coast: Pilot project in a different context Cuajinicul (central highlands): 50W PV, TecnoSol Disponible para generar Disponible para generar pero esperando reparación Fuera de operación Microred 55W solar 55W solar 55W solar 55W solar 540W solar 1kW eólico

7 Caribbean coast Lack of wind resource Cuajinicuil (central highlands) <4m/s 5.77m/s Promedio mensual de elocidad de viento (m/s) Cuajinicuil Previous blueenergy installations

8 Caribbean coast Environmental hazards Cuajinicuil (central highlands) Fewer lightning strikes, no salinity.

9 Caribbean coast Lack of local knolwedge for O&M Lack of motivation for maintenance Cuajinicuil (central highlands) Participatory manufacture Stronger sense of community, more electricity generated & participatory construction

10 Caribbean coast Long supply chain Cuajinicuil (central highlands) 3 hours in pickup from Managua $2,000 1 kw eólica (blueenergy BD4) 1 kw solar FV Poor access Average access $1,800 $1,600 $1,400 $1,200 Buen acceso Acceso normal Mal acceso Minimum trip length 2 days Travel allowance: $25 1 day Travel allowance: $1,000 Wages: $40 $12.50 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Transportation with heavy items Private boat 6hrs each way $400 round trip Wages: $20 Pickup 3hrs each way $62.50 round trip

11 Caribbean coast Poor quality control Lack of funds for maintenance Cuajinicuil (central highlands) Difficult to ensure high quality products when manufacturing in low volumes Irrigation system & fruit processing not yet working Tarifa/aporte Repuestos Insumos Fondo C$ Fusible Sistma eólico FALLO DE INSTALACIÓN PAGÓ ASOFENIX Rectificador Sistema eólico FALLO DE DISEÑO PAGÓ BLUEENERGY Rotor y estator Sistema eólico FALLO DE DISEÑO PAGÓ BLUEENERGY Resistencia Sistema eólico FALLO DE DISEÑO PAGÓ BLUEENERGY Controlador de carga Sistema solar PAGARÁ LA COMUNIDAD US$

12 Quantifying the potential for the technology in Nicaragua

13 First fliter Municipaliti es with good hydro potential Municipalitie s where solar $/kwh < wind $/kwh Municipialites where small wind could work

14 El hidro

15 Economic modelling $/W Materials: $5/W Total: $15/W (wind) $10/W (PV) $/kwh

16 $/kwh 8kW Wind Imported (Bergey Excel-R) 8kW eólica importada 1.2kW Wind Imported (Bergey XL.1) 1kW eólica importada 1kW Wind Local Manufacture (blueenergy BD4) 150W Wind Imported (Southwest Windpower Air- 40) 8kW PV with solar MPPT FV Imported (SuniSolar & Ecami) 1kW eólica nacional 150W eólica importada 1kW solar FV 1kW PV with MPPT Imported (SuniSolar & Ecami) 150W solar FV 55W PV w/o MPPT (from Cuajinicuil case study) Costo Levelizado de Generación ($/kwh) Promedio anual de radiación solar (kwh/m 2 /día) Promedio annual de velocidad de viento (m/s)

17 $/kwh 2 Promedio anual de radiación solar (kwh/m 2 /día) kW eólica nacional 1kW Wind Local Manufacture (blueenergy BD4) 1kW solar FV 1kW PV with MPPT Imported (SuniSolar & Ecami) Costo Levelizado de Generación ($/kwh) Promedio annual de velocidad de viento (m/s)

18 Mal acceso (1kW eólica nacional) Poor access (1kW blueenergy BD4) $/kwh: Difficulty of accessing installation site Promedio annual de radiación solar (kwh/m 2 /day) Buen acceso (1kW eólica nacional) Good access (1kW blueenergy BD4) Acceso normal (1kW eólica nacional) Average access (1kW blueenergy BD4) Buen acceso (1kW solar FV) Good access (1kW PV) Acceso normal (1kW solar FV) Average access (1kW PV) Mal acceso (1kW solar FV) Poor access (1kW PV) Costo Levelizado de Generación ($/kwh) Promedio annual de velicidad de viento (m/s)

19 $/kwh: Wind vs. PV

20 Second filter % population with grid access Maximum market size

21 Grid access

22 Market size 31 municipalities 97,574 ppl. 19,514 homes 1,394 x 1kW SWTs MAXIMUM!

23 Limitations of the model Highly dependent on quality of wind map

24 Hybrids not included. Limitations of the model 8 Average Solar Radiation for Nicaragua kwh/m^2/day Bluefields Managua Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Viento (m/s) Recurso eólico Recurso hidraulico Precipitación (cm) Source: Surface Meterology and Solar Energy Resource Data, NASA

25 Limitations of the model Small scale technologies can complement large scale. Small businesses not included.

26 Limitations of the model Local studies necesary: Ability to pay Availability of micro-finance. Willingness to pay for access to electricity. Productive uses of energy. Community organisation. Cultural differences within and between communities. Environmental hazards (e.g. lightning, corrosion).

27 Realizing the potential in Nicaragua

28 Interviews with 13 experts Opinions of small wind in Nicaragua Current state Future prospects Negativo Neutral Positivo Intervention necessary

29 High variability in wind resource High spatial & temporal variation (PαV 3 ) More detail in regions of high potential. Offer finanical & tech. support for wind resource evaluations for all new projects. Select & demonstrate hybrid PV-wind systems. Investigate hydro-wind hybrids

30 Low national capacity Improve national capacity Promote small wind for grid-tie & mechanical water pumping Lobby govt. for feed-in tariff. Offer tech. training: Encourage tech. & financial support from wind farm developers. Design & implement a training program for electricity sector empolyees (inc. government employees). Strengthen curriculum at universities & tech. colleges.

31 Reduce probability of failures Investigate environmental hazards in regions of high winds. Local manufacture is an option, but needs a lot of support in early years. Lobby govt. to reduce import taxes on SWTs & small wind system components. Ability to pay High maintenance needs Energy-based micro-enterprises.

32 High maintenance needs Maintenance services must be available locally: Select regions where a critical mass of users exists. Empower motivated & capable technicians to perform maintenance in their own communities, especially in very remote places. Create a network of service centres in regions of high potential.

33 High maintenance needs Our maintenance plans are corrective, not preventative. We ve never been avble to offer a preventative plan for our systems Douglas González, Operations manager, Suni Solar S.A.

34 Conclusion Carribean coast isn t the right context for small wind Methodology for quantification of market size presented Potential in central highlands & Pacific coast, but small wind is a riskier solution than PV Key barriers: Wind resource difficult to evaluate Lack of national capacity High maintenance needs

35 Acknowledgements Comissioners of the market study: Green Empowerment, WISIONS My PhD funders: EPSRC (E-Futures DTC) Consultancy team: Lâl Marandin, Mathais Craig, Christian Casillas AsoFenix & blueenergy: Gustavo Reyes, Caitlyn Peake, Bryan Ferry, Cindy Bennett Community memebers: Rosa Zenayda, Cow y Lilian

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