Engine Workscope Optimization. Jim Henry VP Technology Development Standard Aero

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1 Engine Workscope Optimization Jim Henry VP Technology Development Standard Aero

2 The Maintainer s Dilemma High Cost Too Much Maintenance High Cost Low Too Little Maintenance Poor Reliability Light Maintenance Workscope What is the Optimum Workscope? Heavy

3 Reliability-Based Tools to Improve Fleet Performance The Great Idea! Fleet Simulator Workscope Optimization Cost Models Fleet Optimization Lowest Cost/Hour Cost Drivers Shop Optimization Predict Reliability Build Reliability Models Collect/Analyze Failure Data Inherent Reliability Assess Upgrades System Reliability Reliability Problems

4 Why Focus on Gas Turbine Reliability? Very complex systems. Example: T56 has: Over 3000 different parts A fuel control with 740 parts 108 identified failure modes Shop visits are very expensive and occur only every 4 to 5 years Engine reliability impacts aircraft availability and deployed labor needs Intuition & experience cannot account for all variables Easily adapted to other complex mechanical systems

5 Predicting Engine Reliability Collect Data Failure Database Reliability Analysis Reliability Model Deployed to USAF T56 Shops Distributions Predictor Tool Time On Wing Predictor Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

6 Current Engines in Shop Shop Optimization Optimized Engines Each engine module has its own reliability By exchanging modules between Deployed engines, overall reliability to can USAF increase T56 Shops Many combinations: 4 engines = 4 3 = 64 possibilities Time on Wing up 5% to 15% with little cost Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

7 Shop Optimization Example 4 Engines, each with three modules Each module has own Time Since Overaul (TSO) Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

8 Shop Optimization Results Time on Wing increases 680 hrs or 12% Four Engines Optimized Aligns modules based on reliability - not time remaining Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

9 Workscope Optimizer Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

10 Solution to the Maintainer s Dilemma Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

11 Cost Model Residual value of life remaining on replaced parts Depreciate replaced modules over expected time on wing Sunshine costs Costs associated with risk (ie FOD) Cost for Every Workscope Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

12 TF39 Workscoping Tool USAF employs to workscope TF39 engines Centralized team performs workscopes Currently building similar tool for USAF T56 fleet Computationally intensive Impact Technologies developing schemes to ease computational burden 13 Workscope Options 2 13 or 8192 Possible Workscopes Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

13 TF39 Workscope Optimizer Example 13 modules Operator selects mandatory requirements Software optimizes workscope for lowest cost per hour Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

14 TF39 Workscope Optimizer $1, $1, Optimal Workscope: ETOW = 2044 Cost/Hr = $ Cost Per Hour Indicator $1, $1, $1, Actual Workscope: ETOW = 2197 Cost/Hr = $ $ Estimated Time On Wing (Hours) Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

15 Current Fleet State Fleet Simulation Workscope Optimizer Future Fleet State Fly Engine Forward Able to use Workscope Optimizer to fly an entire engine fleet forward Assess impact of environment, upgrades and maintenance policy Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

16 Fleet Simulator Concept validated Prototype built Developing version 2.0 Final version spring 07 Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

17 Fleet Simulator $600 $500 $400 Cost per Flying Hour Project Fleet Costs $300 $200 Program Start $100 6 Engine Removal Projections (Average of Simulations) $0 1/2007 2/2007 3/2007 4/2007 5/2007 6/2007 7/2007 8/2007 9/ / Upper Bound Most Likely Lower Bound / / Project Engine Removals 1 0 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Scheduled Unscheduled Predict Reliability Shop Optimization Workscope Optimization Fleet Simulator

18 Conclusion Fleet Simulator Workscope Optimization Cost Models Shop Optimization Predict Reliability Build Reliability Models Collect/Analyze Failure Data Proven tools to enhance reliability at the engine, shop and fleet levels

19 Questions?

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