Banking in CEE Despite some headwinds, it is worthwhile

Transcription

1 Banking in CEE Despite some headwinds, it is worthwhile Gianni Franco Papa, Group Deputy General Manager, Head of CEE Division and CIB Division Carmelina Carluzzo, Deputy Head of CEE Strategic Analysis 2015 Euromoney CEE Forum Vienna, January 21 st 2015

2 CEE Banking Outlook 2015 CEE remains a diverse Region. Cross-country differentiation is a key feature. This year, economic growth in CESEE is likely to keep a similar pace as in 2014, at 2.5%, with CE outperforming SEE (2.8% vs 1.6%). Taking CEE as a whole, GDP evolution will be affected by a contraction in Russia. Cross-country differentiation is also observable in banking sector developments, with some important positive features: o While overall lending growth has remained weak, some countries showed encouraging trends. o Some of the past vulnerabilities are being addressed as external liabilities (1) in CESEE have been replaced by domestic funding, mainly deposits and capital. Looking forward, a slight acceleration in lending growth in CESEE is likely to be visible in 2015, mainly driven by corporate lending. For CEE as a whole, lending growth will be affected by a significant deceleration in Russia. Differentiation across countries will remain a key feature. With margins remaining under pressures, banks will increasingly look for wider range of opportunities to improve their revenue generation capacity. Non-interest income - fees and commissions - will therefore play a relevant role. Cost efficiency will remain important. CEE banking sector in 2015 is expected to keep its profitability ratio RoA comparable to 2014, at around 1.0%, with NPL likely to remain a challenge. Geopolitical developments as well as changes in the external environment represent a source of uncertainty for the overall outlook. 2 Note: CEE (Central Eastern Europe) includes Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine; CESEE (Central Europe and South Eastern Europe) is CEE excluding Russia, Turkey and Ukraine; CE includes Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland; SEE includes Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia. (1) External liabilities correspond to financing from non-residents, mainly including parent banks funding

3 Agenda CEE Banking Trends - some strengths under uncertainty CEE Banking Outlook - it is worthwhile UniCredit - confirms commitment to CEE Country Cards 3

4 CEE remains a diverse Region Real GDP growth, % Real GDP growth by country, % CEE CESEE 2014 E 2015 F E 2015F 2016F TR PL SK RO CZ HU BH SI BG HR RS RU UA 4 SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

5 Lending growth fatigue? CEE - Total gross loans growth, % yoy (1) 20 CEE CESEE Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Oct-14 5 (1) Local currency terms, FX end-2013 constant SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

6 Cross-countries picture shows differentiation, with a few nice spots CEE Total lending growth by country (latest data Oct-14), % yoy (1) TR and RU fast growth but with decelerating trend Some countries with accelerating trend while others still with loans contracting TR RU CZ RS BG SK BH PL HU RO UA SI HR Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Oct-14-5 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Oct Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Oct-14 6 (1) FX loans are adjusted for movements in the exchange rate SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

7 While FX retail lending growth is negative in a few SEE countries, local currency retail lending shows a positive dynamics LC retail loans growth, % yoy FX retail loans growth, % yoy 16 HR RO BG 4 HR RO BG SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

8 Funding model more sustainable CESEE - Change in funding sources (1) Change in funding sources, (2), EUR bn Loans/Deposits ratio, % Change Change in 2014 (2) Sep-14 Ext. Liabilities/Tot. Assets ratio, % Sep Equity/Tot. Assets ratio, % Total Assets Deposits Debt issued -34 External liabilities (3) Capital Other Sep-14 8 (1) Local currency terms, FX end-2013 constant. Other include deposits from MFIs and other liabilities. BG as of Jun-14 for Sep-14; (2) Latest 2014 data as of Sept-14; (3) External liabilities correspond to financing from non-residents, mainly including parent banks funding SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

9 Agenda CEE Banking Trends - some strengths under uncertainty CEE Banking Outlook - it is worthwhile UniCredit - confirms commitment to CEE Country Cards 9

10 Slight acceleration in lending growth ahead in CESEE Gross loans growth, % yoy (1) Total Loans Retail Loans Corporate Loans E F E 2015F E F (1) Local currency terms, FX end-2013 constant; (2) CESEE HU adj. excludes the estimated impact of the conversion scheme SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis CEE CESEE (2) CESEE HU adj.**

11 with differentiation across countries Loans growth, % yoy (1) E F TR RU PL RS SK CZ BH SI HR BG UA RO HU CEE CESEE Deposits growth, % yoy (1) 2014E 2015F TR RU PL RS SK CZ BH SI HR BG UA RO HU CEE CESEE (1) Local currency terms, FX end-2013 constant SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis xxx L/D ratio 2015F, %

12 Corporate lending accelerating overall faster than retail lending Corporate loans growth, % yoy (1) E F TR RU PL RS CZ HR SI BH HU UA SK BG RO CEE CESEE Retail loans growth, % yoy (1) E F (2) TR RU PL RS CZ HR SI BH HU UA SK BG RO CEE CESEE 12 (1) Local currency terms, FX end-2013 constant; (2) CESEE HU adj. excludes the estimated impact of the conversion scheme SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

13 Revenues margins are expected to remain under pressure. Non-NII revenues therefore to be a key profitability driver Revenues / Avg. Assets, % (1) Share of non-interest revenues, 2015F % (1) 6.5 CEE CESEE AT, DE, IT (2) CEE CESEE % 34.4% % 65.6% AT, DE, IT (2) % E 2015F 61.2% Non-NII NII (1) Revenues exclude all one-off effects in Hungary. AT, DE and IT revenue share as per 2013; (2) Austria (AT), Germany (DE) and Italy (IT) 13 SOURCE: UniCredit Group Strategic Planning, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

14 Cost efficiency will continue to be an important contributor to profitability Costs / Avg. Assets, % Costs / Income ratio, % E 2015F E 2015F 14 SOURCE: UniCredit Group Strategic Planning, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis CEE CESEE AT, DE, IT

15 while NPLs likely to remain a challenge Non Performing Loans ratio, % (1) NPL ratio by country, % (1) CEE - NPLs CESEE - NPLs CEE - CoR (3) CESEE - CoR (3) 13.7 Country E 2015 F Ukraine 23.5% 30.0% 34.0% Serbia 20.7% 24.0% 23.0% 12.3 Russia 12.7% 18.0% 21.0% Bulgaria 16.9% 18.9% 20.7% Hungary 21.2% 20.5% 19.5% Croatia 15.6% 18.0% 18.9% Slovenia 19.9% 20.6% 18.9% Bosnia-H. 15.1% 17.0% 17.5% (2) Romania 32.1% 14.4% 11.4% Poland 7.6% 7.3% 6.9% Czech R. 6.1% 6.3% 6.1% Slovakia 5.3% 5.4% 5.3% Turkey 2.6% 3.0% 3.2% E 2015F CEE 11.2% 12.3% 13.7% CESEE 10.8% 10.9% 10.5% 15 (1) NPL definition varies across countries. In this slide CEE/CESEE aggregates exclude also Romania because of methodological changes in the NPL calculation in 2014; (2) Romania NPL ratio time series not consistent between 2013 and 2014 because of a methodological change in the calculation of NPL in 2014; (3) Provisions exclude all one-off effects in Hungary SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

16 Overall, RoA comparable to 2014 in most of the countries with Romanian, Slovenian and Hungarian banking systems turning back to profit Return on Assets (RoA) (1), % Return on Assets (RoA) (1) by country, % 2.0 CEE CESEE CESEE HU adj. AT, DE, IT (2) E 2015 F E 2015F TR SK CZ PL RU BG BH HR HU RO RS SI UA 16 (1) RoA is calculated as Profit before Tax divided by average Assets; (2) RoA excluding all one-off effects in Hungary SOURCE: UniCredit Group Strategic Planning, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

17 CEE Banking Sector Outlook downside/upside risks Downside Risks Upside Risks Increase of geopolitical tensions Deterioration of the economic growth outlook for the euro area Lower oil prices to boost households and companies spending power More accommodative monetary policies Lower oil prices for Russia Efforts towards a greater harmonization of financial services regulations 17

18 Agenda CEE Banking Trends - some strengths under uncertainty CEE Banking Outlook - it is worthwhile UniCredit - confirms commitment to CEE Country Cards 18

19 UniCredit is a rock-solid European commercial bank International network in approx. 50 countries, with around 8,600 branches and more than 148,000 employees 1 Operating income: EUR 16,863 mn; Operating profit: EUR 6,531 mn Common Equity Tier I ratio at 10.73% Data as of YTD 9M '14 Comprehensive Assessment results proved UniCredit's solid capital position CET1 under the stress test adverse scenario is 6.8%. Strong positioning in CEE 2 : #1 in CEE Region in terms network over 68,000 employees and more than 3,400 branches and expertise Strong contribution to Group profitability Operating income in CEE: EUR 4,313 mn; Operating profit in CEE: EUR 2,481 mn Ranked among the top five banks in 9 CEE 3 countries Total Customers loans in CEE ~ EUR 85 bn; Total Customers deposits in CEE ~ EUR 80 bn Data as at September 30, Number of employees counted for the rate of presence. Figures include employees of Koç Financial Group calculated at 100%. 2. Including direct and indirect presence in the following countries, excluding representative offices: The figures include: Azerbaijan, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Slovakia, Turkey, Ukraine 3. Market share in terms of total assets 2Q Source: company data

20 UniCredit maintains a leadership position in CEE Data as of 1H 2014 Total Assets (1) EUR bn Net Profit (2) EUR mn Number of Branches Countries of presence (3) CEE, % share in Group revenues UniCredit ,299 3,927 2,488 3, (4) 25 (5) RBI , Erste , (6) SocGen (7) 2, (7) KBC (8) 4 28 ISP OTP ,475 9 n.m. 20 Note: (1) 100% of total assets for controlled companies (stake > 50%) and pro rata for non- controlled companies (stake < 50%), except for OTP; (2) After tax and before minorities; (3) Including direct and indirect presence in the 25 CEE countries, excluding representative offices; (4) including branches in Turkey at 100%; (5) Results of RBI exclude group corporate, markets and corporate center segments; (6) BG, HR, MG, MD and MC as of FY2013 since 1H 2014 data not available; (7) Excluding BG, HR, MG, MD and MC since 1H 2014 data not available. (8) As of FY2013 SOURCE: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

21 with a strong footprint in the Region Czech Republic 8.7% market share 106 branches #4 Poland 10.5% market share 1,001 branches #2 Baltics Leasing Slovakia 6.5% market share 78 branches #6 Russia 1.5% market share 108 branches #9 Hungary 6.4% market share 85 branches #6 Ukraine 3.6% market share 309 branches #6 Slovenia 7% market share 33 branches #5 Romania 7.2% market share 185 branches #5 Croatia 26.6% market share 137 branches #1 Bulgaria 15.2% market share 202 branches #1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 21.5% market share 122 branches Serbia 9.1% market share 73 branches #1 #3 Rep. Office in FYR Macedonia and Montenegro Turkey 9.1% market share 978 branches Azerbaijan 16 branches #5 21 Market shares in terms of total assets 2Q 2014, according to local accounting standard, unconsolidated figures (Bosnia & Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Russia, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine) local accounting standard, consolidated figures (Croatia), IFRS (Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia). Croatia and Hungary includes mortgage bank. Data as of June 30 th, 2014, except Hungary (FY2013) and Romania (1Q14) Branches: data as at 30 September Bosnia & Herzegovina includes UniCredit Bank Banja Luka. Azerbaijan includes Yapi Kredi branches. Source: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis

22 UniCredit has a strong focus on customer proximity Corporate and Investment Banking International clients: more than 20,000 international clients operating in CEE supported by UniCredit International Centers Network EU Subsidized Finance: leadership in EU Funds business Retail Banking Alternative channels: cutting edge banking applications and internet banking platform Innovation: enhance digital banking and platform for consumer finance (mobile payments, touchless biometric payments, etc.) and enlarge market potential Private Banking Global Investment Strategy (GIS): a unique global independent investment philosophy Preferred Partners (PP): selection of best-in-class Investment Funds 22

23 Latest Awards acknowledge our consistent performance Euromoney - Award for Excellence Best Bank in Bosnia & Herzegovina 2013 Best Cash Management House in CEE 2013 Best Project Finance House in CEE 2013 Trade & Forfaiting Review Best Trade Bank in CEE Best Cash Management House in Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Serbia and Slovenia in 2013 Best Trade Finance Provider in CEE Best Trade Finance Provide in Bosnia Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey in 2015 Global Finance Best Overall Bank for Cash Management in CEE 2013, 2014 & 2015 Best Bank for Payments & Collections in CEE 2013 Best Bank for Liquidity Management in CEE Best Bank in Bulgaria 2013 Global Finance Best Trade Finance Bank CEE 2013, 2014 & 2015 Best Trade Finance Bank in Bulgaria in 2013, 2014& 2015, in Croatia in 2015, in Czech Republic in 2013, 2014 & 2015, Russia in 2013, in Ukraine in 2013, 2014 & 2015 Best Supply Chain Finance Provider in CEE 2013 & 2014 Global Finance Best Sub-Custodian Bank in CEE 2013 & 2014 Best Sub-Custodian Bank in Bulgaria in 2014, in Croatia in 2013, in Czech Republic in 2013 & 2014, in Hungary in 2013 & 2014, in Poland in 2013 & 2014, in Slovakia in 2013, in Slovenia in 2014, and Ukraine in 2013 & 2014 EuroWeek Best Sub-Custodian Bank in Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Ukraine in 2013 emeafinance Best Project Finance Adviser in CEE 2013 tmi Best Bank in Trade Finance in Eastern Europe 2013 Best Bank for Financial Supply Chain Management Central and Eastern Europe 2014 Euromoney - PB Survey Best Range of Investment Products Czech Republic 2014 Best Corporate Advisory for PB Clients Hungary 2014 Best PB Services Overall 2014 Financial Times and Merger market M&A Awards Financial Advisor of the Year in CEE 2013

24 For some businesses we are among top players in the Region Eastern Europe Syndicated Loans EUR-Den. (All Asset Classes) Pos Bookrunner Deal Value (EUR mn) No. Share* % 1 ING 1, UniCredit 1, Citi Deutsche Bank Société Générale CIB RBS Standard Chartered Bank Commerzbank Group HSBC Wells Fargo Securities Total 22, Period: 1 Jan 31 Dec 2014; Source: Dealogic Loanware, per 7 Jan 2015 * Bookrunner market share is a proportion of bookrunner-led loan volume only Project Finance in Eastern Europe Pos Mandated Arranger Deal Value No. Share (EUR mn) % 1 UniCredit ING Groep NV Société Générale CIB Crédit Agricole SA Sberbank of Russia OAO BNP Paribas SA Citigroup Inc Raiffeisen Zentralbank Oesterreich AG Bank of China Ltd Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc VTB Bank OAO Total 5, Period: 1 Jan 31 Dec 2014; Source: Dealogic ProjectWare, per 7 Jan 2015 All Eastern European Bonds in EUR Pos Bookrunner Deal Value (EUR mn) No. Share % 1 Société Générale CIB 3, JPMorgan 3, UniCredit 2, Citi 2, Deutsche Bank 2, HSBC 2, Barclays 1, BNP Paribas 1, Erste Group Bank AG 1, Commerzbank Group Total 29, Period: 1 Jan 31 Dec 2014; Source: Dealogic Analytics, per 5 Jan 2015 Financial Advisors to CEE* M&A by No. of Deals Pos Financial Advisors Deal Value No. (EUR mn) 1 KPMG 1, Deloitte UniCredit 2, Citi 5, PwC EY Sberbank CIB 10, VTB Capital ZAO 5, Rothschild 2, Seas Capital Partners Period: 1 Jan 31 Dec 2014; Source: Mergermarket, per 7 Jan 2015 * incl. Russia, Turkey, Poland 24

25 Going forward Focus on customer and business development Building on our achievements, we aim to further strengthen our position in the CEE Region also scouting for selected inorganic opportunities, keeping our strong focus on customer proximity and leveraging on our strong geographical footprint and expertise. Taking into consideration today's demanding and rapidly changing economic environment, since July 2013 the Group - within the framework of Strategic Plan - has launched CEE2020, the Program aimed at developing new ways to generate growth and value creation. The objective is to create the proper environment for a healthier CEE Division that will continue to deliver sustainable results well into the future. Strategic initiatives include: Retail: Product and process simplification, alternative channels enhancement CIB: Capital light model, International clients ad hoc offering and SME's value proposition PB: Need Based Advisory and Investment Advisory

26 Agenda CEE Banking Trends - some strengths under uncertainty CEE Banking Outlook - it is worthwhile UniCredit - confirms commitment to CEE Country Cards 26

27 CEE Country Data 1/7 Bosnia-H E 2015F Bulgaria E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Inflation, % avg M Euribor Reference rate, eop (%) Loans (yoy %) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

28 CEE Country Data 2/7 Croatia E 2015F Czech Republic E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Inflation, % avg W money market rate eop Reference rate, eop (%) Loans (yoy %) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

29 CEE Country Data 3/7 Hungary E 2015F Poland E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Inflation, % avg Reference rate, eop (%) Reference rate, eop (%) Loans (yoy %) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

30 CEE Country Data 4/7 Romania E 2015F Russia E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Inflation, % avg Reference rate, eop (%) Reference rate, eop (%) Loans (yoy %) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

31 CEE Country Data 5/7 Serbia E 2015F Slovakia E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Inflation, % avg Reference rate, eop (%) Reference rate, eop (%) EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR Loans (yoy %) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

32 CEE Country Data 6/7 Slovenia E 2015F Turkey E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Inflation, % avg Reference rate, eop (%) EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR Reference rate, eop (%) Loans (yoy %) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

33 CEE Country Data 7/7 Ukraine E 2015F Real GDP, % yoy Inflation, % avg Reference rate, eop (%) Loans (yoy %) Loans ( % GDP) Deposits (yoy %) Deposits ( % GDP) Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) External Liabilities (% of total liabilities) Cost to Income Ratio (%) Revenues/avg. Volumes (%) Return on Assets (%) Impaired loans ratio (% gross loans) Cost of Risk (%) SOURCE: UniCredit Research, UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis, UniCredit CEE Banking Network

34 Contacts 1/2 This is a product of UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis Andrea Lacalamita, Head of Group Strategic Planning and CEE Strategic Analysis Carmelina Carluzzo, Deputy Head of CEE Strategic Analysis Mauro Giorgio Marrano, Milen Kassabov, Kamen Kazankin, Olga Solomatina Kristian Laedre, Carlo Moretto, Lilit Sargsyan Closing date: January 9th,

35 Contacts 2/2 UniCredit Bank (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Jelena Juric UniCredit Bulbank (Bulgaria) Kristofor Pavlov Zagrebacka Banka (Croatia) Hrvoje Dolenec UniCredit Bank Czech Republic and Slovakia (Czech Republic and Slovakia) Pavel Sobisek Ľubomír Koršňák UniCredit Bank Hungary (Hungary) Tamas Nagy Bank Pekao (Poland) Marcin Mrowiec UniCredit Tiriac Bank (Romania) Catalina Molnar UniCredit Bank (Russia) Artem Arkhipov Yapı ve Kredi Bankası (Turkey) Asli Anginbas A special thanks to UniCredit Research, UniCredit Group Strategic Planning 35

36 Disclaimer Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether without notice. 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Regulatory authority: Bank of Italy, Via Nazionale 91, Roma, Italy and Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, Frankfurt, Germany. d) UniCredit Bank AG Vienna Branch (UniCredit Bank Vienna), Julius-Tandler-Platz 3, 1090 Vienna, Austria Regulatory authority: Finanzmarktaufsichtsbehörde (FMA), Otto-Wagner-Platz 5, 1090 Vienna, Austria and subject to limited regulation by the BaFin Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, Frankfurt, Germany. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht are available from us on request. e) UniCredit CAIB Securities Romania (UniCredit Romania), Str. Nicolae Caramfil nr. 25, Etaj 5, Sector 1, Bucuresti, Romania Regulatory authority: CNVM, Romanian National Securities Commission, Foisurului street, no. 2, sector 3, Bucharest, Romania f) UniCredit Bulbank, Sveta Nedelya Sq. 7, BG-1000 Sofia, Bulgaria Regulatory authority: Financial Supervision Commission (FSC), 33 Shar Planina str.,1303 Sofia, Bulgaria g) Zagrebačka banka, Paromlinska 2, HR Zagreb, Croatia Regulatory authority: Croatian Agency for Supervision of Financial Services, Miramarska 24B, Zagreb, Croatia h) UniCredit Bank Czech Republic (UniCredit Bank Czechia), Na Príkope 858/20, CZ Prague, Czech Republic Regulatory authority: CNB Czech National Bank, Na Příkopě 28, Praha 1, Czech Republic i) Bank Pekao, ul. Grzybowska 53/57, PL Warsaw, Poland Regulatory authority: Polish Financial Supervision Authority, Plac Powstańców Warszawy 1, Warsaw, Poland j) ZAO UniCredit Bank Russia (UniCredit Russia), Prechistenskaya emb. 9, RF Moscow, Russia Regulatory authority: Federal Service on Financial Markets, 9 Leninsky prospekt, Moscow , Russia k) UniCredit Bank Slovakia a.s. (UniCredit Slovakia), Šancova 1/A, SK Bratislava, Slovakia Regulatory authority: National Bank of Slovakia, Imricha Karvaša 1, Bratislava, Slovakia l) UniCredit Tiriac Bank (UniCredit Tiriac), Bucharest 1F Expozitiei Boulevard, RO Bucharest 1, Romania Regulatory authority: CNVM, Romanian National Securities Commission, Foişorului street, no.2, sector 3, Bucharest, Romania m) ATF Bank, 100 Furmanov Str., KZ Almaty, Kazakhstan Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the state regulation and supervision of financial market and financial organisations, , Almaty, 67 Aiteke Bi str., Kazakhstan POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST UniCredit Bank AG acts as a Specialist or Primary Dealer in government bonds issued by the Italian, Portuguese and Greek Treasury. 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37 Disclaimer (cont.) Notice to Austrian investors This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is confidential and is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person or published, in whole or part, for any purpose. Notice to Czech investors This report is intended for clients of UniCredit Bank, UniCredit Bank London, UniCredit Bank Milan, UniCredit Bank Vienna, UniCredit Romania, UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka, UniCredit Bank Czechia, Bank Pekao, UniCredit Russia, UniCredit Slovakia, UniCredit Tiriac, ATF Bank in the Czech Republic and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Notice to Italian investors This document is not for distribution to retail clients as defined in article 26, paragraph 1(e) of Regulation n approved by CONSOB on October 29, In the case of a short note, we invite the investors to read the related company report that can be found on UniCredit Research website Notice to Japanese investors This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription for or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities and neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Notice to Polish investors This document is intended solely for professional clients as defined in Art. 3 39b of the Trading in Financial Instruments Act of 29 July 2005.The publisher and distributor of the recommendation certifies that it has acted with due care and diligence in preparing the recommendation, however, assumes no liability for its completeness and accuracy. Notice to Russian investors As far as we are aware, not all of the financial instruments referred to in this analysis have been registered under the federal law of the Russian Federation "On the Securities Market" dated 22 April 1996, as amended (the "Law"), and are not being offered, sold, delivered or advertised in the Russian Federation. This analysis is intended for qualified investors, as defined by the Law, and shall not be distributed or disseminated to a general public and to any person, who is not a qualified investor. Notice to Turkish investors Investment information, comments and recommendations stated herein are not within the scope of investment advisory activities. Investment advisory services are provided in accordance with a contract of engagement on investment advisory services concluded with brokerage houses, portfolio management companies, non-deposit banks and the clients. Comments and recommendations stated herein rely on the individual opinions of the ones providing these comments and recommendations. These opinions may not suit your financial status, risk and return preferences. For this reason, to make an investment decision by relying solely on the information stated here may not result in consequences that meet your expectations. Notice to UK investors This communication is directed only at clients of UniCredit Bank, UniCredit Bank London, UniCredit Bank Milan, UniCredit Bank Vienna, UniCredit Romania, UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebačka banka, UniCredit Bank Czechia, Bank Pekao, UniCredit Russia, UniCredit Slovakia, UniCredit Tiriac, or ATF Bank in the Czech Republic who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) ( high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc. ) of the United Kingdom Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or (iii) to whom it may otherwise lawfully be communicated (all such persons together being referred to as relevant persons ). This communication must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. Notice to U.S. investors This report is being furnished to U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Each U.S. recipient of this report represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is such a "major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6) and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this report that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or issuer mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of UniCredit Capital Markets, LLC. Any transaction by U.S. persons (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through UniCredit Capital Markets. The securities referred to in this report may not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. The information contained in this report is intended solely for certain "major U.S. institutional investors" and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Such information is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or under any other U.S. federal or state securities laws, rules or regulations. The investment opportunities discussed in this report may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. In jurisdictions where UniCredit Capital Markets is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements. The information in this publication is based on carefully selected sources believed to be reliable, but UniCredit Capital Markets does not make any representation with respect to its completeness or accuracy. All opinions expressed herein reflect the author s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. UniCredit Capital Markets may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this report. These publications reflect the different assumptions, views and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance. UniCredit Capital Markets and any company affiliated with it may, with respect to any securities discussed herein: (a) take a long or short position and buy or sell such securities; (b) act as investment and/or commercial bankers for issuers of such securities; (c) act as market makers for such securities; (d) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities; and (e) act as paid consultant or advisor to any issuer. The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this report are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement This document may not be distributed in Canada. 37