Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking Conference Low rates and heavy regulation: how to deliver shareholder returns

Transcription

1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch Banking Conference Low rates and heavy regulation: how to deliver shareholder returns London, 1-2 October 2014 Delivering shareholder returns by eliminating legacy issues Gernot Mittendorfer, CFO, Erste Group Thomas Sommerauer, Head of IR, Erste Group Simone Pilz, IR Manager, Erste Group

2 Disclaimer Cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT HAS NOT BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED AND NO REPRESENTATION OR WARRANTY EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IS MADE AS TO, AND NO RELIANCE SHOULD BE PLACED ON, THE FAIRNESS, ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS INFORMATION OR OPINIONS CONTAINED HEREIN. CERTAIN STATEMENTS CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT MAY BE STATEMENTS OF FUTURE EXPECTATIONS AND OTHER FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS THAT ARE BASED ON MANAGEMENT S CURRENT VIEWS AND ASSUMPTIONS AND INVOLVE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN RIS AND UNCERTAINTIES THAT COULD CAUSE ACTUAL RESULTS, PERFORMANCE OR EVENTS TO DIFFER MATERIALLY FM THOSE EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED IN SUCH STATEMENTS. NONE OF ERSTE GUP OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES, ADVISORS OR REPRESENTATIVES SHALL HAVE ANY LIABILITY WHATSOEVER (IN NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE) FOR ANY LOSS HOWSOEVER ARISING FM ANY USE OF THIS DOCUMENT OR ITS CONTENT OR OTHERWISE ARISING IN CONNECTION WITH THIS DOCUMENT. THIS DOCUMENT DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN OFFER OR INVITATION TO PURCHASE OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SHARES AND NEITHER IT NOR ANY PART OF IT SHALL FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED UPON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT OR COMMITMENT WHATSOEVER. 2

3 Presentation topics Footprint & business environment Challenges for banks Eliminating legacy issues Outlook 3

4 Footprint Customer banking in Austria and the eastern part of the EU Erste Group footprint Czech Republic Customers: 5.2m Employees : 10,474 Branches : 644 Slovakia Customers: 2.4m Employees : 4,228 Branches: 293 Hungary Customers : 0.9m Employees : 2,809 Branches: 128 Highlights Consistent business strategy focused upon real economy ever since foundation in 1819 Relationship approach Leading retail and corporate bank in 7 geographically connected countries Romania Customers : 3.1m Employees : 7,078 Branches: 551 Favourable mix of mature & emerging markets with low penetration rates Direct presence Indirect presence Austria Customers: 3.4m Croatia Customers : 1.1m Serbia Customers : m Potential for cross selling and organic growth in CEE Employees: 15,658 Employees : 2,752 Employees : 988 Branches: 966 Branches: 160 Branches: 67 4

5 Business environment Visible macroeconomic improvement across the CEE region Real GDP growth (in %) Dom. demand contribution* (in %) Net export contribution* (in %) Consumer price inflation (ave, in %) AT AT CEE economies grew faster than the euro zone in Q (euro zone GDP grew by 0.7% yoy in Q2) Positive outlook for 2014 supported by Q2 GDP data: AT (+0.1%), (+2.7%), (+1.2%), (+2.5%), (+3.9%) 2014 GDP yoy estimates improved for most of CEE countries as economies remained driven by exports with visible improvement in domestic demand AT AT Unemployment rate (eop, in %) Current account balance (% of GDP) Gen gov balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) AT AT Solid public finances across Erste Group s core markets recognised by Moody s: Romania upgraded to investment grade (BBB-) in May 14 Sustainable current account balances, supported by competitive economies; Hungary has announced new austerity package AT * Contribution to real GDP growth. Domestic demand contribution includes inventory change. Source: Erste Group Research, EU Spring Economic Forecast AT 5

6 Business environment Historic low interest rate environment poses challenges 3M Interbank 10YR GOV Austria Czech Republic Romania 5.53% 5.10% 1.82% 1% 1.83% 0% 1.98% 0% 1.68% 0% 1.86% 0.48% 2.00% 7% 2.27% 7% 1.73% 6% 4.79% 2.60% 5.36% 2.66% 4.84% 2.54% Q1 14 Q2 14 ECB cut discount rate to 0.05% in Sept 14 Maintains expansionary monetary policy stance Q1 14 Q2 14 National bank maintains ultra-low interest rates since November 2012 at 0.05% Q1 14 Q2 14 Central bank cut policy rate to historic low of 3.25% in August 2014 Slovakia Hungary Croatia 5.92% 5.42% 5.80% 5.03% 2.47% 2.31% 2.38% 2.24% 5.00% 1% 0% 0% 0% 2.68% 2.82% 2.54% 1.07% 0.64% 0.65% 0.62% As part of euro zone ECB rates are applicable in Source: Bloomberg. Q1 14 Q Q1 14 Q2 14 National bank concluded easing cycle on 22 July 2014 after cutting base rate to historic low of 2.1% Q1 14 Q2 14 Central bank maintains discount rate at 7.0% since mid

8 Challenges for banks Meeting the demands of investors, regulators and customers Regulators ECB vs EBA vs national regulators Basel 3/ CRD IV, CRR: CET1, LCR, NSFR Resolution regime, European deposit insurance Stress tests: data collection Regulatory compliance is costly Investors Sustainable E above cost of capital (increased due to regulatory demands) Delivering on business model Cost discipline Risk costs Customers Easy to understand products designed to meet customer needs: solutions instead of product push Transition between channels: digital banking, new type of branches New competition e.g. mobile banking via non-bank payment service providers Consumer protection, transparency 8

10 Eliminating legacy issues 2014 expected to be final year of one-offs related to pre-crisis issues One-offs with effect on regulatory capital Additional risk provisions of about EUR 400m in Romania EUR 80m booked in H1 14; bulk expected to occur in H2 14 as LGD recalibration under way and uncertainty about pricing of NPL sales Booked in risk costs of SME and CRE segments (BL) and Romania segment (geo) Hungary: consumer loan law (bid-/ask-spread, unilateral interest and fee changes) impact of EUR m EUR 13m in H1 14, remaining impact expected to occur in H2 14 Booked in other operating result; booking could be reversed into risk costs, depending on final legislative clarification (cash payback vs principal reduction) No clarity yet on potential additional losses in Hungary from FX loan conversion into F expected for year-end 2014; hence no provision included in Q2 14 figures One-offs with no effect on regulatory capital Write-down of remaining goodwill, value of customer relationships, brand and other intangibles related to Romania Total impact of EUR 854.2m (cumulative) Booked in other operating result of Group Corporate Center (BL) and Other segment (geo) Full write-down of remaining goodwill related to Croatia and minor participations Total impact of EUR 101.8m Booked in other operating result of Group Corporate Center (BL) and Other segment (geo) Negative change in deferred taxes (net) of EUR 164.2m Minor impact of 4 and 13bps in fully-loaded and phased-in scenario Accounting standard-induced booking, under Austrian tax regulation tax losses can be carried forward indefinitely 10

11 Eliminating legacy issues Significant reduction in intangibles to 13.8% of book value Quarterly development of intangibles (EUR bn) Highlights % Extraordinary intangible write-downs amounted to EUR 956.4m in Q2 14 goodwill: EUR 319.1m customer relationships: EUR 176.1m brand: EUR 294.6m other intangibles: EUR 64.4m & related: EUR 101.8m and goodwill are carried in EUR No goodwill related to Hungary No goodwill related to Romania Reduced customer relationship amortisation expenses booked in operating costs of the Group Corporate Center /06/13 30/09/13 31/12/13 31/03/14 30/06/14 Software Other goodwill goodwill goodwill Customer relationships Brand (mainly BCR) BCR goodwill 11

12 Eliminating legacy issues Declining non-performing loans volume, declining NPL ratio 30/06/13 31/03/14 30/06/14 Group Retail SME AT/SB LC CRE OC 678 1,303 1, ,022 2,128 2,035 3,648 3,410 3,420 3,554 2,657 2,698 2,611 2,557 2,506 Business line view 12,573 12,238 11,996 in EUR m 9.7% 9.6% 9.4% 7.7% 7.3% 7.3% 7.0% 6.8% 6.6% 4.4% 8.3% 5.9% 14.9% 12.4% 12.5% 8.2% 14.5% 12.9% 18.5% 21.8% 21.7% Continued decline of group NPL volume and group NPL ratio on supportive trends in CRE, LC (BL) and, (geo) NPL sales amounted to EUR 134.9m in Q2 14 Retail: EUR 50.5m Corporate: EUR 84.4m Reallocation of about EUR 800m from SME to LC is key reason for rising NPL ratio in LC and decline in SME; underlying trends stable AT/EBOe AT/OA RS , ,018 1,334 1,688 1, ,515 1,354 1,306 1,283 1,212 1,242 Geographic view 3,337 3,047 2,933 in EUR m 3.8% 3.5% 3.6% 1% 14.2% 12.9% 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 29.3% 3% 29.3% 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 26.0% 26.6% 26.4% 18.8% 17.7% 18.3% 13.3% 17.4% 16.3% NPL sales mainly in (EUR 53.1m), leading to NPL decline in same amount; NPL ratio stable due to declining overall loan volume NPL sales of EUR 41.8m in AT/OA (Holding, Immorent) Minor sales in,, : First large volume NPL package of about EUR 240m sold in July 2014 and further significant NPL sales until YE 2014 expected 12

13 Eliminating legacy issues NPL coverage rises to multi-year high of 64.0% 30/06/13 31/03/14 30/06/14 Group Retail SME AT/SB LC CRE OC ,551 1,572 1,573 1,076 1,177 1,142 2,477 2,363 2,366 2,166 1,590 1,724 Business line view 7,757 7,660 7,674 in EUR m 61.7% 62.6% 64.0% 53.2% 55.3% 56.1% 67.9% 69.3% 69.2% 60.9% 59.8% 63.9% 59.4% 61.5% 62.8% 68.1% 66.3% 64.9% 47.1% 50.8% 66.6% Improving group coverage ratio over the past quarters following significant provisioning in SME and CRE LC: decline in coverage driven by reallocation from SME SME: higher qoq coverage due to higher provisioning of new NPLs AT/EBOe AT/OA RS Geographic view 2,053 1,895 1,894 in EUR m 66.5% 68.2% 68.4% 53.8% 5% 53.6% 73.1% 80.7% 79.3% 61.5% 62.2% 64.6% 95.8% 87.4% 83.9% 63.7% 62.1% 61.7% 48.9% 55.6% 57.4% 81.9% 74.8% 75.8% Continued increase in coverage in AT/OA qoq coverage rise reflects additional provisions in CRE qoq coverage increase on the back of additional provisions for CRE and SME ahead of accelerated NPL reduction 13

14 Eliminating legacy issues Banking levies remain drag on profitability and capital generation capacity Trending down but remaining high by international comparison in EUR m Austria +27% -16% New calculation applicable since January 2014 In negotiation: will payments into resolution fund and deposit guarantee schemes be deductable? Slovakia From 2015 onwards banking levies reduced to % on corporate and retail deposits instead of 0.4% as total amount already paid in reached EUR 500m by 25 July 2014 Further reduction to 0.1% when next threshold of EUR 750m is reached No banking levy payable in Q Slovakia Hungary e Austria Hungary Calculation of banking tax still based on balance sheet as of 2009 (approx. 50% higher than current balance sheet total) Financial transaction tax introduced in 2013 No indication for reduction plans yet 14

15 Eliminating legacy issues: improved capital position CET 1-ratio (fully loaded) at 10.8%, as impairments do not impact capital ratios Basel 2.5/Basel 3 capital (EUR bn) Risk-weighted assets (EUR bn) Basel 2.5/Basel 3 capital ratios Basel 2.5 Basel 3 Phased-in Basel 2.5 Basel 3 Phased-in Basel 2.5 Basel 3 Phased-in % 11.8% 16.6% 11.2% 10.9% 15.8% 11.8% 11.4% 16.3% 11.1% 11.1% 15.5% 11.7% 11.7% 16.5% /06/13 30/09/13 31/12/13 31/03/14 30/06/14 30/06/13 30/09/13 31/12/13 31/03/14 30/06/14 30/06/13 30/09/13 31/12/13 31/03/14 30/06/14 Tier 3 Tier 2 AT1 CET1 Trading risk Op risk Credit RWA CET1 Tier 1 Total capital Lower qoq deductions from capital due to negative DTA change QOQ normalisation of RWAs due to: Benefit from SME support factor: EUR 1.2bn Benefit from negative DTA change: EUR 0.4bn Exposure reductions: EUR 0.5bn Migration to default: EUR 0.5bn Basel 3 CET1 ratio (final) equalled 10.8% at 30 June 2014 (YE 2013: 10.8%) Driven by ytd stability in capital and RWA 15

17 Conclusion Outlook For Erste Group (consolidated): A group operating result, which despite stable underlying group operating trends could be pushed slightly below guidance in 2014 due to weaker operating results in Romania and Hungary; Risk costs of EUR bn, depending on booking of Hungarian consumer loan law impact in risk provisions or other operating result; A net loss for 2014 of EUR bn; A CET 1-ratio (fully loaded, based on current definitions) of about 10.0% at year-end; Strongly improved post-provision result and net profit (TE: 8-10%) in 2015, despite still disproportionate banking levies. For the geographic segment Romania: a full normalisation of risk costs at bps of average gross customer loans starting in 2015, accompanied by an accelerated NPL reduction (down about EUR 800 million or 25%, compared to year-end 2013) already in 2014; a significant rise in the NPL coverage ratio; a lower, but sustainable operating result due to a lower unwinding impact on net interest income For the geographic segment Hungary: a gradual normalisation of risk costs to bps (by 2016) of average gross customer loans based on the assumption that all government actions will be completed in 2014; a lower, but sustainable operating result due to lower net interest income 17

18 Investor relations details Erste Group Bank AG, Milchgasse 1 (mezzanine floor), 1010 Vienna Fax : +43 (0) investor.relations@erstegroup.com Internet: Erste Group IR App for ipad, iphone and Android Reuters: ERST.VI Bloomberg: EBS AV Datastream: O:ERS ISIN: AT Contacts Thomas Sommerauer Tel: +43 (0) Peter Makray Tel: +43 (0) Simone Pilz Tel: +43 (0) Gerald Krames Tel: +43 (0) thomas.sommerauer@erstegroup.com peter.makray@erstegroup.com simone.pilz@erstegroup.com gerald.krames@erstegroup.com 18