Residential Real Estate Company Deutsche Wohnen 'BBB+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Conwert Takeover Offer

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1 Research Update: Residential Real Estate Company Deutsche Wohnen 'BBB+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Negative On Conwert Takeover Offer Primary Credit Analyst: Marie-Aude Vialle, London (44) ; Secondary Contact: Nicole Reinhardt, London (44) ; Table Of Contents Overview Rating Action Rationale CreditWatch Ratings Score Snapshot Related Criteria And Research Ratings List FEBRUARY 17,

2 Research Update: Residential Real Estate Company Deutsche Wohnen 'BBB+' Ratings Placed On CreditWatch Overview German residential property company Deutsche Wohnen AG has announced its takeover offer for Austrian property company, Conwert Immobilien SE. We are placing our 'BBB+' long-term corporate credit rating on Deutsche Wohnen on CreditWatch with negative implications. The CreditWatch reflects our view that the transaction could result in a deterioration of Deutsche Wohnen's credit metrics if the company is unable to refinance the bridge loan with an equity increase as announced by Deutsche Wohnen's management. If the company successfully raises sufficient equity, we would expect to affirm our long-term rating at 'BBB+'. Rating Action On Feb. 17, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'BBB+' long-term corporate credit rating on Deutsche Wohnen AG on CreditWatch with negative implications. Rationale The CreditWatch placement follows Deutsche Wohnen's announcement of a takeover offer of about 1.2 billion in cash for Conwert Immobilien SE's shares and convertible bonds maturing in 2016, as well as an obligatory offer for all outstanding shares of ECO Business-Immobilien AG. The transaction will be financed at closing by a committed 900 million bridge loan and available cash balance. Conwert is an Austrian real estate company and owns a property portfolio with a market value of about 2.8 billion. Of this, 64% are residential assets while the remaining 36% are commercial assets. About 63% of the portfolio (by value) is located in Germany, 34% in Austria, and the balance in central Eastern European countries. We understand that Conwert will be fully consolidated into Deutsche Wohnen's financial profile pro forma the acquisition, while the exact ownership of Deutsche Wohnen in Conwert will depend on the result of the takeover offer. Pro forma the acquisition of Conwert, Deutsche Wohnen's portfolio will increase from 9.0 billion to 11.8 billion. However, we understand that Deutsche Wohnen intends to make a detailed review of Conwert's assets after its acquisition, which may lead to a sale of the non-core assets of Conwert FEBRUARY 17,

3 over the short to medium term. In particular, we understand that Deutsche Wohnen plans to sell the ECO business (1,200 commercial units in Austria and Germany), as this does not fit with the company's long-term strategy. We view positively management's intention to dispose of certain assets of Conwert, including the commercial assets and the non-core residential assets. This is because we consider that the benefits of diversification in another asset class and other geographical areas are more than offset by the lower quality of Conwert's non-core assets compared with Deutsche Wohnen's existing portfolio. In particular, we note the higher vacancy rate of the noncore assets of Conwert (up to 15% for the commercial assets) and the lower margin overall compared with Deutsche Wohnen's standards. Overall, we still view the business risk profile of the combined entity as well positioned in the "strong" category under our criteria, and we consider that the residential assets of the Conwert portfolio located in attractive and core regions (about one half of Conwert's residential portfolio) should reinforce Deutsche Wohnen's market position in these regions. For more details on our assessment of Deutsche Wohnen's business risk profile, please refer to our publication titled "German Residential Real Estate Company Deutsche Wohnen Assigned 'BBB+' Rating; Outlook Stable," published on Nov. 25, From a financial risk standpoint, we believe that the transaction, which will mainly be funded by debt at closing, may constrain Deutsche Wohnen's key credit metrics, including, notably, leverage ratios. However, we understand that Deutsche Wohnen intends to fully refinance the 900 million bridge loan with an equity raise within the coming months. Therefore, on completion of the equity increase, we would expect the short-term imbalance between debt and equity to be remediated with leveraged ratios closer to previously targeted levels. If Deutsche Wohnen successfully completes its equity raise, we believe that the credit metrics will remain commensurate with the better end of the "significant" category, in line with our assessment on a stand-alone basis. Compared with our previous base case, however, we believe that the EBITDA interest coverage ratio should improve at a much slower pace than previously assumed, with the 2015 ratio at a roughly similar level to that in This is because Deutsche Wohnen will take over Conwert's debt, which has a higher average interest cost than Deutsche Wohnen's existing debt. Our base case assumes: About 850 million in combined entity revenues for A Standard & Poor's-adjusted EBITDA margin of about 60%-62% in Based on these assumptions, we arrive at the following credit measures: EBITDA interest coverage of about 2.4x-2.5x in We forecast that the interest coverage ratio will improve in 2016 as interest expenses on the existing Conwert debt progressively benefit from refinancing activity under better terms, and some repayment with proceeds of disposals. We forecast that our ratio of debt to debt plus equity will remain between 50% and 55% in 2015, moving closer to 50% by the end of FEBRUARY 17,

4 Liquidity Pro forma the acquisition of Conwert, we assess Deutsche Wohnen's liquidity as "adequate," supported by our forecast that the company's liquidity sources will exceed its funding needs by about 1.9x over the next 12 months. Deutsche Wohnen's principal liquidity sources pro forma for the Conwert transaction over the next 12 months to Dec. 31, 2015, include: A high cash balance of about 400 million at year end. Cash funds from operations (FFO) of about 250 million for the 12 months to Dec. 31, We have not factored into our calculation proceeds from potential disposals of some of Conwert's assets, given asset sales are not yet committed and are therefore subject to some execution risk. This compares with our estimate of liquidity uses for the same period of: Contracted debt maturities of about 120 million in 2015 for both Deutsche Wohnen and Conwert. Modernization capital expenditures of about 65 million for the next 12 months. We have not included any potential future equity raise into our liquidity analysis. Similarly, we have not included the repayment of the 900 million bridge loan facility in the liquidity uses, as we understand that this facility has a maturity of 12 months with an extension option for an additional six months. CreditWatch The CreditWatch negative placement reflects our view that the acquisition of Conwert could result in a deterioration of Deutsche Wohnen's credit metrics should the company not be able to refinance the bridge loan with an equity increase as announced by Deutsche Wohnen's management. We believe that in such a case, Deutsche Wohnen's financial risk profile would still be in line with a "significant" assessment, but would no longer be at the better end of this category. Upside scenario We would likely affirm the rating on Deutsche Wohnen at 'BBB+' and remove the rating from CreditWatch negative if the company fully refinances its bridge loan with an equity increase as indicated. Downside scenario We could consider lowering the rating to 'BBB' if Deutsche Wohnen is not able to raise equity to refinance the bridge loan, and if the debt to debt plus FEBRUARY 17,

5 equity ratio deteriorates to above 55% as a result of the increased debt level. Ratings Score Snapshot Corporate Credit Rating: BBB+/Watch Neg/-- Business risk: Strong Country risk: Very low Industry risk: Low Competitive position: Strong Financial risk: Significant Cash flow/leverage: Significant Anchor: bbb Modifiers Diversification/portfolio effect: Neutral (no impact) Capital structure: Neutral (no impact) Liquidity: Adequate (no impact) Financial policy: Neutral (no impact) Management and governance: Satisfactory (no impact) Comparable rating analysis: Positive (+1 notch) Related Criteria And Research Related Criteria Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors for Global Corporate Issuers, Dec. 16, 2014 Corporate Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Corporate Methodology: Ratios and Adjustments, Nov. 19, 2013 Key Credit Factors For The Real Estate Industry, Nov. 19, 2013 Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Methodology: Management And Governance Credit Factors For Corporate Entities And Insurers, Nov. 13, 2012 Related Research German Residential Real Estate Company Deutsche Wohnen Assigned 'BBB+' Rating; Outlook Stable, Nov. 25, 2014 Ratings List CreditWatch/Outlook Action To From Deutsche Wohnen AG Corporate Credit Rating BBB+/Watch Neg/-- BBB+/Stable/-- FEBRUARY 17,

6 Additional Contact: Industrial Ratings Europe; Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect at and at spcapitaliq.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at Use the Ratings search box located in the left column. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) ; London Press Office (44) ; Paris (33) ; Frankfurt (49) ; Stockholm (46) ; or Moscow 7 (495) FEBRUARY 17,

7 Copyright 2015 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC, a part of McGraw Hill Financial. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or otherwise), regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an "as is" basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENT'S FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs or losses caused by negligence) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment decisions (described below) are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any duty whatsoever arising out of the assignment, withdrawal, or suspension of an acknowledgment as well as any liability for any damage alleged to have been suffered on account thereof. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription) and (subscription) and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at FEBRUARY 17,

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