Central Government Budget 2015 September, 30th 2014 1
Spain Macroeconomic Scenario Year on year % change (ESA 2010) 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Real GDP -2.1-1.2 1.3 2.0 Nominal GDP -1.9-0.6 1.4 2.7 GDP 2014 2015 National Consensus 1.3 2.0 Private Consumption -2.9-2.3 2.0 2.1 Public Consumption -3.7-2.9 0.2-1.0 Gross Capital Formation -8.3-3.7 1.5 4.4 Domestic Demand(*) -4.3-2.7 1.4 1.8 Exports of goods and services 1.2 4.3 3.6 5.2 Imports of goods and services -6.3-0.5 4.4 5.0 External Demand(*) 2.2 1.4-0.1 0.2 Employment (**) -4.4-3.3 0.7 1.4 Employees affiliated to the Social Security -3.4-3.3 1.3 Jan-Sep Unemployment rate 24.8 26.1 24.7 22.9 Net lending (+)/ borrowing (-) with the RoW(***) 0.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 (*) Contribution to GDP growth; (**) full -time equivalent; (***) % of GDP. 2
Economic Growth Differential Real GDP (y-o-y %) Euro area 18 Major advanced economies G7 Spain 2009-4.5-3.8-3.6 2010 1.9 2.9 0.0 2011 1.6 1.5-0.6 2012-0.7 1.4-2.1 2013-0.4 1.5-1.2 2014p 0.9 1.7 1.3 2015p 1.6 2.3 2.0 Source: INE, IMF, Eurostat, 2015 Budget. 3
Net lending (+) or net borrowing (-) by institutional sector (% GDP) Financing capacity Not including one-off financial assisstance. Source: INE and IGAE Net lending (+)/ borrowing (-) vis-àvis RoW(*) (*) % of GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F -3.4-2.9 0.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 4
Budgetary outcomes and Targets Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) General Government (as % of GDP) ESA 2010 Targets 2011(D) 2012 (D) 2013 (P) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Central Government -5.10-4.12-4.22-3.8-3.5-2.9-2.2-1.1 Regional Governments -3.34-1.84-1.52-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.3 0.0 Local Entities -0.40 0.31 0.52 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Social Security -0.10-0.96-1.11-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.3 0.0 General Government -8.94-6.62-6.33-6.5-5.5-4.2-2.8-1.1 Not including one-off to the financial sector. Excluding 2009 regional financing system settlements in favor of the Central Government (2011) 5
Government balance 2013 Net lending (+)/borrowing (-) General Government (as % of GDP) ESA 95 ESA 2010 2013 revision 2012 (D) 2013 (A) 2012 (D) 2013 (P) GDP Effect Numerator Effect Central Government -4.21-4.33-4.12-4.22 0.11 0.00 Regional Governments -1.86-1.54-1.84-1.52 0.04-0.01 Local Entities 0.22 0.41 0.31 0.52-0.01 0.12 Social Security -0.99-1.16-0.96-1.11 0.03 0.02 General Government -6.84-6.62-6.62-6.33 0.16 0.13 Not including one-offs to the financial sector: 2012 3.80 pp ESA 95 and 3.70 pp ESA 2010. 0,47pp 2013 (A) and 2013 (P). 6
Fiscal balances and Public Debt 2011-2017 % GDP General Government Balance General Government Primary Balance Structural Primary Balance Public Gross Debt 2011-8.9-6.5-2.7 69.2 2012-6.6-3.7 0.3 84.4 2013-6.3-3.1 2.2 92.1 2014-5.5-2.2 2.7 97.6 2015-4.2-0.8 2.9 100.3 2016-2.8 0.6 2.8 100.2 2017-1.1 2.3 3.0 97.9 Source: MINHAP Not including financial assisstance one-offs. 7 7
Revenue National Accounts 8
Revenues Budget 2014 Collection Budget 2015 % change billion (1) (2) (3) (3)/(1) (3)/(2) 1. TAX REVENUE (before transfers to Territorial Entities) 179.749 176.627 186.112 3.5 5.4 PERSONAL INCOME TAX 73.196 73.415 72.957-0.3-0.6 CORPORATE INCOME TAX 22.327 19.589 23.577 5.6 20.4 VAT 54.849 56.216 60.260 9.9 7.2 EXCISE TAXES 20.453 19.057 19.894-2.7 4.4 OTHER 8.924 8.350 9.423 5.6 12.9 2. TAX REVENUE (after transfers to Territorial Entities) 107.413 104.769 113.836 6.0 8.7 3. NON-TAX REVENUES 20.747 25.034 19.876-4.2-20.6 4. TOTAL NON FINANCIAL REVENUE (2+3) (after transfers to Territorial Entities) 128.159 129.803 133.712 4.3 3.0 9
Total Tax revenues 2011 2012 Difference 12-11 Evolution of Tax revenues % 12/11 Final 2013 Difference 13-12 billion % 13/12 PERSONAL INCOME TAX 69.803 70.619 0.816 1.2% 69.951-0.668-0.9% CORPORATE INCOME TAX 16.611 21.435 4.824 29.0% 19.945-1.490-7.0% Payments on account Big corporations and groups 7.626 11.636 52.6% 14,692 26.3% SMEs 1.872 1.758-6.1% 1.485-15.5% Other 0.136 0.215 0.121 Total 9.634 13.609 41.3% 16.298 19.8% OTHER 2.158 3.027 0.869 40.3% 3.154 0.127 4.2% CHAPTER I.- DIRECT TAXES 88.572 95.081 6.509 7.3% 93.050-2.031-2.1% VAT 49.302 50.464 1.162 2.4% 51.931 1.467 2.9% EXCISE TAXES 18.983 18.210-0.773-4.1% 19.073 0.863 4.7% OTHER 2.965 2.920-0.045-1.5% 2.721-0.199-6.8% CHAPTER II.- INDIRECT TAXES 71.250 71.594 0.344 0.5% 73.725 2.131 3.0% CHAPTER III.- OTHER TAX REVENUES 1.938 1.892-0.046-2.4% 2.072 0.180 9.5% TOTAL TAX REVENUES 161.760 168.567 6.807 4.2% 168.847 0.281 0.2% Source: AEAT 10
Expenditure National Accounts Expenditure not including one-off financial assisstance 11
Distribution of Central Government Expenditure Available expenditure for the Ministries 2014 2015 billion 2015 /2014 % 1. Non-financial expenditure limit 133.259 129.060-3.2 2. Interests 36.590 35.490-3.0 3. Other Ministerial Expenditure 30.333 30.623 1.0 4. NON FINANCIAL EXPENDITURE OF THE MINISTRIES (1-2-3) 66.336 62.946-5.1 5. Transfers to Social Security and to the Public Employment Service and others. 31.752 27.970-11.9 6. Plan CRECE 0 0.450 7. AVAILABLE EXPENDITURE FOR THE MINISTRIES (4-5-6) 34.584 34.526-0.2 12
Plan CRECE Plan of measures to drive growth, competitiveness and efficiency million Target 2015 Investment on Energy Saving and Reducing CO2 emissions* 250 Investment on sanitation and water treatment* 200 Boost corporate R&D&i** 100 Ensuring digital connectivity** 100 Action Plan against Youth Unemployment *** 470 SME Initiative. Financial instruments 1,067 TOTAL PLAN CRECE 2015 2,187 * Non finacial budget of the Central Government ** Financial Budget of the Central Governmet *** Budget of the State Public Employment Service 13
Non financial expenditure of the Ministries Summary by ministries Million Sections 2013 2014 Dif % 2014/13 2015 Dif % 2015/14 12: MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND COOPERATION 1,091 995-96 -8.8 1,043 49 4.9 13: M. OF JUSTICE 1,496 1,461-35 -2.3 1,475 14 1.0 14: M. OF DEFENCE 5,931 5,740-191 -3.2 5,765 25 0.4 15: M. OF FINANCE AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATIONS 2,161 2,140-21 -1.0 2,185 45 2.1 16: M. OF THE INTERIOR 7,211 7,295 84 1.2 7,421 126 1.7 17: M. OF INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT (FOMENTO) 5,790 5,805 15 0.3 4,980-825 -14.2 17: M. of infrastructure development excluding obligations of previous financial years 5,310 4,846-465 -8.7 4,980 134 2.8 18: M. OF EDUCATION, CULTURE AND SPORTS 2,490 2,680 190 7.6 2,760 79 3.0 19: M. OF EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL SECURITY 23,794 26,540 2,746 11.5 22,421-4,118-15.5 20: M. OF INDUSTRY, ENERGY AND TOURISM 3,918 5,157 1,239 31.6 5,741 583 11.3 23: M. AGRICULTURE, FOOD AND ENVIRONMENT 1,566 1,613 47 3.0 1,840 226 14.0 25: M. OF THE PRESIDENCY 434 422-11 -2.6 442 20 4.6 26: M. OF PUBLIC HEALTH SOCIAL SERVICES AND EQUALITY 2,962 1,907-1,055-35.6 1,919 12 0.7 26: M. Of Public Health, Social Services and Equality (1) 1,879 1,884 5 0.3 1,917 33 1.7 27: M. OF ECONOMY AND COMPETITIVENESS 1,957 2,339 382 19.5 2,315-24 -1.0 27. M. of Economy and competitiveness excluding obligations of previous financial years and contributions to Greece 1,957 2,035 79 4.0 2,105 70 3.4 31: MISCELLANEOUS EXPENDITURE 2,012 2,242 230 11.4 2,640 398 17.8 TOTAL MINISTRIES EXPENDITURE 62,813 66,336 3,523 5.6 62,947-3,389-5.1 Ministries excluding contributions to the Social Security, Public Employment Service, Plan CRECE and other (1) Excluding Sanitary Cohesion Fund 36,302 34,584-1,718-4.7 34,526-58 -0.2 14
Central Government Budget Economic classification Sections 2014* (% of total) 2015 (% of total) % 2015/14 I. Personnel expenditure 15.796 5.8 16.046 5.7 1.6 II. Current expenditure on goods and services 2.984 1.1 3.121 1.1 4.6 III. Financial expenditure 36.616 13.5 35.519 12.6-3.0 IV. Current transfers 94.599 34.9 91.777 32.4-3.0 Current Operations 149.994 55.3 146.464 51.8-2.4 V. Contingency Fund and other unforeseen 2.666 1.0 2.616 0.9-1.9 VI. Real Investments 3.254 1.2 3.411 1.2 4.8 Real Investment excluding Plan CRECE 3.254 3.250-0.1 VII. Capital Transfers 8.935 3.3 9.501 3.4 6.3 Capital Transfers excluding Plan CRECE 8.935 9.212 3.1 Capital Operations 12.189 4.5 12.912 4.6 5.9 NON FINANCIAL BUDGET 164.849 60.8 161.992 57.3-1.7 VIII. Financial assets 38.136 14.1 28.927 10.2-24.1 VIII. Financial assets excluding Plan CRECE 38.136 14.1 28.727-24.7 IX. Financial liabilities 68.334 25.2 91.998 32.5 34.6 FINANCIAL BUDGET 106.469 39.2 120.925 42.7 13.6 TOTAL BUDGET 271.318 100.0 282.918 100.0 4.3 * Budget 2014 standardized the effect of the centralization of contracts and FNMT Economic classification of expenditure billion 15
Territorial distribution of real investment State Public Sector (Administrative with limited budget, Corporate and Foundational budget) million % 2015/2014 REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS 2014 % of Total regional 2015 % of Total regional País Vasco 320 3.2 364 3.2 13.7 Cataluña 949 9.6 1,072 9.5 13.0 Galicia 1,357 13.7 1,386 12.3 2.1 Andalucía 1,712 17.3 1,958 17.3 14.4 Asturias 303 3.1 333 3.0 10.0 Cantabria 198 2.0 230 2.0 16.0 La Rioja 92 0.9 95 0.8 3.3 Murcia 304 3.1 425 3.8 40.0 Valencia 613 6.2 776 6.9 26.5 Aragón 369 3.7 397 3.5 7.6 Castilla-La Mancha 496 5.0 571 5.1 15.0 Canarias 256 2.6 268 2.4 4.5 Navarra 72 0.7 96 0.9 33.6 Extremadura 352 3.6 368 3.3 4.5 Baleares 74 0.8 138 1.2 86.3 Madrid 907 9.2 981 8.7 8.2 Castilla y León 1,401 14.2 1,744 15.4 24.5 Ceuta 51 0.5 30 0.3-42.5 Ceuta without prison centre 21 0.2 27 0.2 27.1 Melilla 28 0.3 35 0.3 24.9 TOTAL REGIONAL 9,855 100.0 11,268 100.0 14.3 Non regional and several regions 2,205 1,809-18,0 Foreign 30 26-12,5 TOTAL 12,091 13,103 8.4 16
Spending Policies Consolidated Budget billion Policies 2014 % of total 2015 % of total % 2015/14 Basic Public Services 16.355 4.6 16.476 4.7 0.7 Social Expenditure 186.051 52.7 187.408 53.9 0.7 Social Expenditure excluding unemployment 156.323 44.3 162.108 46.6 3.7 Economic Affairs 28.030 7.9 30.374 8.7 8.4 General public services (excluding EFSF contribution and Suppliers Fund) 114.979 32.6 113.581 32.7-1.2 CHAPTERS 1 to 8 353.219 100.0 347.839 100.0-1.5 17
Distribution of Consolidated public expenditure 8.7% Economic Affairs 4.7% Basic public services 53.9% Social Expenditure 32.7% General Public services 18
Territorial funding billion 2014* 2015** % 2015/14 Territorial funding 98.469 101.587 3.2% Regional Governments funding 82.046 84.377 2.8% Local Entities funding 16.423 17.210 4.8% * 2014 final settlement ** 2015 considering extending the repayment period of negative settlements 2008-09 19