DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES guiding effective decisions in real estate, community, and economic development A Tale of Contradictory Indicators ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Full Employment for Economic Developers GREATER ST. LOUIS ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT NETWORK January 23, 2014 We have a lot to do! Bob Lewis, PRINCIPAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES 10 S. Broadway, Suite 1500 St. Louis, MO 63102-1743 Phone: (314) 421-2800 Fax: (314) 421-3401 www.development-strategies.com RML@development-strategies.com
Part of 16 15 metro area counties. DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE? 8 Illinois counties 7 Missouri counties 2
How many of you knew about this publication? 16 pages of numbers! Shoutout to Ruth Sergenian! stlregionalchamber.com/ Click on Regional Data then click Economy 3
FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE Beige Book stlregionalchamber.com/ Click on Regional Data then click Economy 4
20 LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS 2012 Top 20 metros: 38% of U.S.A. 381 metros in U.S.: 85% of population (bottom 361: 47%) Smallest: Carson City, NV 54,800 New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore - 5 10 15 20 6.70 6.18 6.02 5.86 5.76 5.46 4.64 4.46 4.35 4.33 4.29 3.55 3.42 3.18 2.84 2.80 2.75 9.52 13.05 19.83 Millions of residents 536 micropolitan areas: 8.6% of U.S. (172 larger than Carson City!) 5
20 LARGEST METROPOLITAN AREAS Big 4 Professional Sports Teams Top 20 metros: 57% of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL (includes Canada) 70 teams of 124 total teams 77% baseball 59% football 37% basketball 53% hockey New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore - 2 4 6 8-2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 8 KC: 2 teams, 30 th OKC: 1 team, 42 nd Green Bay: 1 team, 115th 6
POPULATION GROWTH RATES BY DECADE 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 15.1% USA 12.7% 18.6% USA 15.6% 12.1% USA 11.8% USA 10.3% -1.3% USA 8.9% 3.1% USA 11.6% USA 8.8% 4.6% 4.7% -5% 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 7
KEY METRO AREA DEVELOPMENT FACTORS 8
9 METRO AREA DEVELOPMENT CONCENTRATIONS
10 METRO AREA DEVELOPMENT CONCENTRATIONS
POPULATION BY COUNTY 2012 Total Population: 2,795,900 Metro East 25% Metro West 75% St. Louis Co. 36% Chicago City 2,714,900 Metro 9,522,400 Kansas City City 464,300 Metro 2,038,700 StL City Calhoun St. Clair St. Louis Macoupin Clinton Madison Jersey Bond Franklin Jefferson Monroe Warren St. Charles Lincoln Metro East Metro West 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 318,200 5,000 268,900 1,000,400 47,200 38,100 267,900 22,700 17,600 101,400 220,200 33,400 32,800 368,700 53,400 700,800 2,095,100 11
POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY 1990 to 2012 (percent change) Total Population: Up 8.3% StL City Calhoun Macoupin St. Louis St. Clair Madison Jersey Clinton Bond Franklin Jefferson Monroe Warren St. Charles Lincoln Metro East Metro West -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% -19.8% -5.7% -1.0% 0.7% 2.3% 7.5% 10.7% 12.4% 17.3% 25.8% 28.5% 6.7% 8.9% 49.1% 68.2% 73.2% 84.8% 12
POPULATION PER SQUARE MILE 2012 St. Louis City: 2.6 X St. Louis Co. 7.8 X St. Charles Co. 1950: 856,800 residents 13,819 per square mile 1950: 45% of metro 2012: 11.5% of metro St. Louis City St. Louis County St. Charles County St. Clair County Madison County Jefferson County Franklin County Monroe County Lincoln County Clinton County Warren County Jersey County Macoupin County Bond County Calhoun County 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 657 405 370 335 110 86 85 80 76 62 55 46 20 5,132 1,969 13
METROPOLITAN EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 1990-2012 Millions 1.40 1.35 1.30 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 14
JOB LOCATION QUOTIENTS Metro St. Louis 2011 LQ of 1.0: Same percent as U.S. St. Louis: Quite Balanced...a good thing? Strengths: Management of Enterprises ( Fortune 500 Town ) Educational Services (private) Utilities (big companies, big territories) Forestry, Agric. Support Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp. & Warehsg Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate Prof, Sci, Tech Services Mgt of Enterprises Admin, waste mgt. Educational Services Health Care & Soc. Asst. Arts, Ent, Recreation Lodging & Dining Other services 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 0.25 0.17 1.35 1.09 0.87 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.86 1.02 0.91 1.04 1.76 0.88 1.51 0.96 1.21 0.98 1.06 15
COMPANY 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Express Scripts 24 60 55 96 115 135 132 134 137 151 147 210 Emerson Electric 123 120 120 117 94 111 115 126 134 144 138 130 Monsanto 206 224 234 197 235 305 323 336 357 353 Reinsurance Grp of America 275 289 290 321 Centene 303 453 493 486 Peabody Energy 315 316 338 346 353 432 431 453 497 Ameren 373 340 313 320 327 329 339 324 380 382 418 366 Graybar Electric 465 451 480 470 439 455 450 476 462 448 401 344 Jones Financial (Edw Jones) 491 FORTUNE 500 HQs IN METRO ST. LOUIS 2002-2013 Annual Rankings Charter Communications 351 333 332 385 409 409 413 390 358 362 417 Smurfit-Stone 356 334 Anheuser-Busch 149 146 146 139 142 142 159 May Department Stores 147 147 144 143 Premcor (Clark USA) 285 No. of Companies 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 8 St. Louis to USA: Fortune 500 1.8% Population 0.9% Jobs 1.0% GDP 0.7% 16
FORTUNE 500 HQs IN METRO ST. LOUIS Memory Lane COMPANY 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Express Scripts 371 Emerson Electric 121 118 126 120 128 133 Monsanto 167 187 163 159 146 145 Ameren 439 444 448 Graybar Electric 370 404 431 453 454 475 Anheuser-Busch 151 150 141 127 87 85 May Department Stores 122 120 120 103 99 82 Premcor (Clark USA) 325 414 374 TWA 468 454 433 383 374 337 Ralston Purina 342 293 252 236 180 152 GenAmerica 411 392 453 479 Mercantile Bank 496 Jefferson Smurfit 440 397 310 351 McDonnell Douglas 87 74 69 Boatmen's Bank 415 485 No. of Companies 11 11 11 10 10 10 1995 to 2013... Gen America Mercantile Bank Jefferson Smurfit Smurfit-Stone McDonnell Douglas Boatmen s Bank Charter Communic. Ralston Purina Premcor TWA May Dept. Stores Anheuser-Busch 17
JOB LOCATION QUOTIENTS Metro St. Louis 2011 LQ of Zero: Same percent as U.S. St. Louis: Quite Balanced...a good thing? Strengths: Management of Enterprises ( Fortune 500 Town ) Educational Services (private) Utilities (big companies, big territories) Forestry, Agric. Support Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transp. & Warehsg Information Finance & Insurance Real Estate Prof, Sci, Tech Services Mgt of Enterprises Admin, waste mgt. Educational Services Health Care & Soc. Asst. Arts, Ent, Recreation Lodging & Dining Other services (0.75) (0.83) (0.13) (0.03) (0.05) (0.05) (0.14) (0.09) (0.12) (0.04) (0.02) 0.35 0.09 0.02 0.04 0.76 0.51 0.21 0.06-1.0-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 18
RESILIENCE INDEX - ABSOLUTE VALUES OF LOCATION QUOTIENTS Resilience Index: Low is better, like golf. Location Quotients are both negative and positive. Absolute Values are always POSITIVE numbers. Sum of absolute values: Measure of distance from ZERO. Lower means tighter, or less vulnerability.? 19
RESILIANCE INDEX TOP 20 METROS 2011 (Employment) Resilience Index: St. Louis is in FIRST PLACE! The most resilient metro economy in America. Of course! Ummm...maybe? You re nuts. Let s market it anyway. New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore 0 10 20 30 40 50 24.8 20.1 12.8 16.6 18.6 18.4 17.0 19.9 15.2 14.3 19.5 16.4 18.9 15.8 10.3 17.9 26.2 21.3 23.6 42.9 20
MAYBE ST. LOUIS IS COOLER THAN WE IMAGINE 21
OLD PEOPLE ON THE MOVE LABOR FORCE CHALLENGES... 22
RESILIANCE INDEX TOP 20 METROS 1998 (Employment) We were even better in 1998. So we ve slipped? Improved Indices: New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Miami Atlanta Phoenix San Diego Tampa New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore 0 10 20 30 40 50 6.8 25.3 26.1 20.8 29.5 20.1 22.7 25.9 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.5 12.5 13.2 13.4 20.1 25.8 17.6 40.2 42.7 23
RESILIANCE INDEX TOP 20 METROS 2012 (Employee Earnings) Earnings from Employment: St. Louis is still Number One! Over Time: 1969 17.2 4 1998 11.2 1 2001 16.8 1 2012 14.8 1 New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore - 10 20 30 40 50 60 FINANCE, P-T SVCS 30.8 20.4 20.4 20.6 MFG, PROF-TECH SERVICES 42.8 19.9 GOVERNMENT, PROF-TECH SERVICES 25.5 23.1 29.4 PROF-TECH SERVICES 32.8 30.4 21.6 28.6 26.9 21.4 29.0 21.4 14.8 25.6 56.1 24
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 2001-2012 St. Louis vs. U.S.A. (Indexed to 100) 140 120 St. Louis Only Detroit crashed further. U.S.A. 100 RECESSION 25
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - 2012 Increase Over Recession Low St. Louis is 19 th in growing past the worst of the recession. We re not Los Angeles! New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore United States 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0.4% 3.8% 4.6% 2.2% 5.5% 2.5% 3.9% 5.7% 7.3% 1.6% 2.7% 9.5% 7.3% 7.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.9% 7.6% 4.8% 11.2% 17.8% 26
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT - 2012 Compared to Pre-Recession Peak St. Louis is also 19 th in reaching pre-recession GDP (inflation adjusted). We re not Detroit! New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore United States -20% -10% 0% 10% -14.5% -11.0% 0.0% -5.2% -0.8% -6.3% -2.3% -7.0% -3.5% -5.3% -0.4% 5.8% 8.8% 1.3% 5.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.8% 5.8% 4.6% 6.5% 27
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT per WORKER 2011 YIKES! Productivity $94,000 per worker Half of Houston Full Employment for Economic Developers We have a lot to do! New York Los Angeles Chicago Dallas Houston Philadelphia Washington Miami Atlanta Boston San Francisco Riverside Phoenix Detroit Seattle Minneapolis San Diego Tampa St. Louis Baltimore United States $- $50 $100 $150 $200 $94 $179 $148 $143 $155 $192 $144 $180 $140 $141 $144 $188 $135 $129 $128 $166 $131 $150 $121 $141 $132 28
HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS, BOB!
FINANCIAL & INFORMATION SERVICES 80,000 jobs & 6,200 establishments 3 rd most concentrated market for securities brokerage (New York, Boston, St. Louis) STL showed biggest gain in financial service jobs (5,600) from 2007 2012 Top 5 lost 39,000 Major expansions by Edward Jones, Wells Fargo Advisors, Reinsurance Group of America
HEALTH SCIENCE & SERVICES 190,000 jobs in 6,400 establishments 3 rd most concentrated market for hospital employment (Boston, Baltimore, St. Louis); 10-yr job growth of 26% 2 medical universities, 2 colleges of pharmacy, 9 nursing schools, 1 school each of optometry, dentistry, chiropractic Core strengths at convergence of genomics, population health management, & personalized medicine Major expansion anticipated by Express Scripts
MULTIMODAL LOGISTICS STL at convergence of 2 major rivers, 6 Class-One railroads, and 4 US interstates 2 major airports with international cargo capacity 3 rd largest rail market; 2 nd largest inland port (by tonnage) STL region cost competitive for 1 or 3+ DC network model Effective logistics key to advanced manufacturing
BIOSCIENCES Consistently among the top markets for NIH funded research Extraordinary concentration of world-class scientists in medical & plant sciences History of medical breakthroughs led international effort to map human genome Home to major multinationals, bio-venture funds, robust pipeline of startups, & ecosystem to support them Monsanto: $400 million expansion + 675 new jobs Strong leadership by BioSTL www.biostl.org
RECENT RANKINGS (April 2013) STL fastest growing city for year-over-year techjob postings (Dice.com) STL among top 10 Large American Cities of the Future for Human Resources (fdi Magazine published by Financial Times) STL #4 in Hot Cities for IT Jobs (Modis.com) STL #1 for Happiest Cities for Career-Seeking College Grads (CareerBliss.com) STL Top Sleeper City for tourism based on affordability, accessibility, & attractions (FoxNews.com)
PARTING THOUGHTS St. Louis is big. Big is relative. But we re big. We are statistically resilient. Goldilocks resilient. Not too hot, not too cold. Most of the time. Dramatics are not us. Except during recessions. Overall strength is managerial prowess: We manage challenges better? Anticipate change? Harness this prowess to grow faster. Productivity sluggishness is a big challenge. More bachelor s degrees...good idea. We have a lot to do, but a lot to work with, too. 35