ICCT mission and activities

Global Best Practices in Fuel Efficiency Policies Anup Bandivadekar CSE Workshop on Transport and Climate 24-25 July 2013, New Delhi

ICCT mission and activities The mission of ICCT is to dramatically improve the environmental performance and efficiency of cars, trucks, buses and transportation systems in order to protect and improve public health, the environment, and quality of life. Non-profit research organization Air Pollution and Climate Impacts Focus on regulatory policies and fiscal incentives Activity across modes including aviation and marine Global outreach, with special focus on largest markets Slide 2

Worldwide Automobile Efficiency/GHG Standards Country/Region European Union # United States Japan # China # Canada South Korea Mexico India Regulated metric CO 2 emissions (CO 2 /km) Fuel economy (mi/gal) GHG emissions (CO 2 e/mi) Fuel economy (km/l) Fuel consumption (L/100km) GHG emissions (CO 2 e/mi) Fuel economy (km/l) CO 2 emissions (CO 2 /km) Fuel economy (km/l) Fuel economy (km/l) #: Separate standards established for light-commercial vehicles Program details, reduction in CO 2 -per-distance emissions 40% reduction, MY 2008-2020 EU NEDC 42% reduction, MY 2010-2025 U.S. FTP 30% reduction, MY 2010-2020 Japan JC08 34% reduction, MY2008-2020 EU NEDC cycle 40% reduction, MY 2009-2025 U.S. FTP 12% reduction, MY 2012-2015 U.S. FTP 12% reduction, MY 2011-2016 U.S. FTP 20% reduction, MY 2009-2021 NEDC for low powered vehicles 3

Comparison of global light-vehicle efficiency standards Grams CO 2 per Kilometer normalized to NEDC 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Solid dots and lines: historical performance Solid dots and dashed lines: enacted targets Solid dots and dotted lines: proposed targets Hollow dots and dotted lines: target under study S. Korea 2015: 153 Mexico 2016: 169 China 2020: 117 India 2020: 113 Japan 2020: 105 EU 2020: 95 40 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 [1]China'stargetreflectsgasolinevehiclesonly.Thetargetmaybehighera ernewenergyvehiclesareconsidered. [2]US,Canada,andMexicolight dutyvehiclesincludelight commercialvehicles. US-LDV Canada-LDV EU Japan China S. Korea Mexico India Canada 2025:109 US 2025:109

New technologies being deployed at a rapid pace in regulated markets (U.S.) GDI Turbo 6-speed Auto 2009 4.2% 3.6% 25% 2010 8.3% 3.5% 38% 2011 13.7% 7.4% 52% 2012 15% 2013 19% Source: 2009-2011: 2011 EPA Fuel Economy Trends Report Source: 2012-2013: Automotive News, January 14, 2013

Comparison of Technology Development in US and China

New technologies being deployed at a rapid pace in regulated markets (E.U.) 2010 2012 2010 Ford Focus 1.6L, 4 cyl., 74 kw Ford Focus EcoBoost 1.0L, 3 cyl., 74 kw C-class diesel avg. 1.7L --- SS+DI+turb o 1,175 kg 1,195 kg M5, 11.9 s M5, 12.5 s 14.6 km/l 21.4 km/l 17.4 km/l 2010 2012 Audi A3 Audi A3 1.6L, 4 cyl., 75 kw 1.2L, 4 cyl., 77 kw --- SS+DI+turbo+ 7DCT 1,185 kg 1,150 kg M5, 11.8 s 7DCT, 10.4 s 14.4 km/l +40% 20.1 km/l +47% New powertrains introduced in Europe

New technologies being deployed at a rapid pace in regulated markets (Japan) Hybrid Passenger Cars Hybrid PC + Mini CY 2010 16.6% 11.6% CY 2011 19.4% 13.0% CY 2012 29.6% 19.5%

Lower vehicle size and mass have resulted in good fuel efficiency in India in the past, but the situation may be changing Dramatic market share increase of SUVs, MPVs and Vans in FY 2012-13

Increasing size, mass, and power of vehicles in India may hurt overall efficiency, unless accompanied by standards. CO2emi sion(g/km) 154 206 152 150 148 146 14 209 142 140 2010 138 2012 201 136 134 980 101020 1040 1060 1080 10 120 Kerbweight (kg)

There are many opportunities to reduce fuel consumption of heavy vehicles (including buses). Optimize driver behavior Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics Reduce Improve engine efficiency vehicle weight Reduce auxiliary loads Improve transmission and drivetrain efficiency Reduce rolling resistance 11

HDV global regulatory landscape Country/ Region Regulation Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Japan Fuel economy Phase 1 regulation implemented starting MY 2015 United States GHG/Fuel efficiency Standard proposal Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 (mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016) Phase 2 NPRM Phase 2 Finalized Phase 2 implementation? China Fuel consumption Test procedure finalized Industry standard proposal Industry National standard standard implemented adopted Regulation implemented starting MY 2015 European Union CO 2 test procedure Technical studies Impact assessme nt Test procedure finalized Policy implementation Canada Mexico California GHG/Fuel efficiency Fuel efficiency End-user purchase reqts Requirements for new tractors, trailers (2011+) Standard proposal Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 Phase 2? Proposal Regulation implemented starting MY 2016 Phase 2 implementation? Additional reqs. for existing tractors and Additional reqts. for existing trailers and reefers trailers (<MY 2010) (<MY 2010) South Korea Fuel Economy Technical studies Impact assessme nt Test procedure finalized Policy implementation

2005: Japan introduced world s first fuel economy standard for HDVs using the Top Runner approach 13

2015 fuel economy targets and percent improvement by vehicle type and class Fuel economy (km/l) Vehicle Type Vehicle Class 2002 baseline 2015 target Improvement (%) Truck Bus Tractor 2.67 2.93 9.7 Other truck 6.56 7.36 12.2 Total 6.32 7.09 12.2 Urban 4.51 5.01 11.1 Other bus 6.19 6.98 12.8 Total 5.62 6.3 12.1 Both the 2015 average target and relative improvement assume a constant 2002 vehicle sales mix Compliance through simulation modeling with standard inputs improvements primarily from engines 14

EPA & NHTSA GHG/ Fuel Efficiency Regulation Engine and vehicles are separately regulated, not integrated. Trailers are not included. Tony Grezler, Volvo

US Fuel Economy/GHG Program 12-17% Class 7/8 Tractors Class 2B/3 Pickup Trucks and Vans 10-23% Everything Else = Vocational Vehicles 6-9% Stringency in MY 2017 vs. MY 2010 baseline; < 3 year payback 16

China HDV Fuel Consumption Standards Proposal

Global HDV regulatory alignment Technology efficiencies captured differently in government tests Governments, industry interested in possible alignment Japan North America* China EU # Engine Transmission Hybridization Aerodynamic drag, rolling resistance Yes Somewhat Unclear Through separate engine standards Optional; by demonstration outside of standard protocol By demonstration outside of standard protocol Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes** Yes Trailer No No No No * US, Canada, and potentially Mexico # Refers to ongoing government research and testing protocols; No standards in place ** The use of modeled values for C d and C RR may limit applicability Based on work by Therese Langer, Siddiq Khan 18

Diversity of applications in heavy vehicle fleet, but a reasonable regulatory framework can be developed to cover all market segments. India should include an LCV standard as well. 19

Why are fuel consumption standards in India important? Road Transport Oil Consumption Domestic Crude Oil Production

Fuel Efficiency Standards Typically Pay themselves back in 2-4 years Saving fuel for the consumer over the entire life of the vehicle is the key benefit of the fuel efficiency standards Co-benefits include reduction in imported oil and greenhouse gas emissions, Increased energy security and reduced fuel subsidy, reduction in upstream emissions of pollutants since less fuel needs to be refined Slide 21

For more information ICCT Passenger Vehicles website: http://www.theicct.org/passenger-vehicles Global Passenger Vehicle Standards Update: http://www.theicct.org/global-passenger-vehiclestandards-update US CAFE Standards: http://www.theicct.org/policies/us-cafe-standards EU LDV CO 2 Regulation: http://www.theicct.org/policies/eu-light-dutyvehicle-co2-regulation Review and Comparative Analysis of Fiscal Policies to promote fuel economy: http://www.theicct.org/review-and-comparativeanalysis-fiscal-policies CO 2 Standards: http://www.theicct.org/issues/co2-standards Anup Bandivadekar anup at theicct.org John German John at theicct.org Peter Mock Peter at theicct.org http://twitter.com/#!/th eicct Slide 22

More information Detailed technical studies Summary and briefing papers Newsletter www.theicct.org 23

Global CO 2 emissions stabilized by car efficiency standards in 2025, despite doubling of vehicles Efficiency measures show greatest effect. Mode shift / activity reduction potential estimated to be significantly smaller. Source: ICCT Global Transportation Roadmap model