Consumer prices and the money supply

Consumer prices and the money supply Annual rise. Per cent. -year moving average Money supply Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Consumer prices and GDP per inhabitant Annual rise. Per cent. Moving average Consumer prices - - 9 9 9 96 98 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank GDP per inhabitant JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Industrial output. Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted US Euro area - - Japan - - Percentage rise on same month previous year - - 997 998 999 Sources: Datastream, the Federal Reserve Board and EcoWin JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar US - Confidence indicators Index values. Consumer confidence 98= Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted 6 8 6 Business confidence (ISM-PMI), right-hand scale.9. 8 7 6 Consumer confidence, left-hand scale 99 99 99 99 99 996 997 998 999 Sources: Datastream, the Conference Board and the Institute for Supply Management JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Consumer confidence in the euro area Household expectations for the next months Seasonally adjusted diffusion index Own situation - Consumer confidence - - - General economic situation - - - Jan- May- Sep- Jan- May- Sep- Sources: EcoWin - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar GDP growth Projection from Consensus Forecasts. Percentage growth on previous year Trading partners Japan US Germany - - Jan/ Mar/ May/ Jul/ Sep/ Nov/ Jan/ - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Oil prices Brent Blend USD per barrel IR / Futures prices January jun.99 des.99 jun. des. jun. des. jun. des. jun. des. Sources: Norges Bank, Telrate and IPE JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar The value of NOK measured in terms of the tradeweighted exchange rate index 99= 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 96 97 98 99 JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Traditional merchandise exports Percentage growth on same quarter previous year Volume Prices - - - 997 998 999 Source: Statistics Norway - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Retail sales index 99 = Seasonally adjusted volume 8 8 6 6 999 8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Statistics Norway 8 JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

8 Households Non-fin. enterpr. Municipalities Share of loan debt in November C by borrower sector -month rise Per cent 6 6 Municipalities 6 6 8 Households Non-financial enterprises 8 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Significance for financial stability Debt burden of households ) and enterprises ) 6 Enterprises (right-hand scale) 6 Households (left-hand scale) 987 989 99 99 99 997 999 ) Household borrowing as a percentage of disposable income, last four quarters ) Interest-bearing debt in non-financial enterprises as a percentage of cash surplus excl. interest expenses *First half of Source: Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Private sector borrowing and cyclical fluctuations 8 6 - - -6-8 Private sector net investments in financial assets (left-hand scale) Output gap (righthand scale) 98 98 98 986 988 99 99 99 996 998 - - Sources: National Budget and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Change in unemployment in number of persons from same month previous year. 8 Whole country 8 6 Central Norway 6 Southern Norway Western Norway Northern Norway - - Eastern Norway - - -6 Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- -6 Source: Directorate of Labour JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Structural non-oil deficit Percentage of mainland GDP 8 8 6 Use of petroleum revenues 6 Source: Ministry of Finance JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar Phasing in of petroleum revenues Structural, non-oil deficit. prices Change from previous year As % of trend BNP 6 7 8 9 Source: Ministry of Finance. National Budget. JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Main macroeconomic aggregates - Inflation Report /. Percentage change from previous year Private consumption ¾ ¾ Public consumption ½ ¼ ½ Gross investment - -¾ Business investment -¾ -½ ¾ Traditional exports ¾ - ½ Imports ¼ ¼ Mainland GDP ¼ ½ ¾ Rise in labour costs ½ Employment ½ ¼ ½ LFS unemployment (rate) ½ ½ ½ JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar The inflation projection CPI adjusted for changes in real taxes and energy prices (CPIATE) 6 -month rise. Per cent 6 Goods and services produced in Norway CPIATE Inflation target = ½ Imported consumer goods - Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank - JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar

Uncertainty associated with the inflation projection % % 7% 9% ) Consumer price inflation adjusted for changes in real taxes and energy prices (CPIATE) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank JB Terra Kapitalmarkedsdager, Gardermoen. januar