Energy production and CO 2 balance

HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola T. Suntola 1

HUT / BIOFUELS; Production, Properties and Use, Sept 5 Sept 9, 2005 Energy production and CO 2 balance Tuomo Suntola 1. Natural energy resources and energy production 2. Electricity production, energy scenarios for the 21st century 3. Energy supply; from source to the enduser, hydrogen technology 4. Carbon balance and annual circulation 5. CO 2 contribution to global warming T. Suntola 2

Solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y (=> 100 million nuclear power stations) Global energy sources and reserves Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y ( => 15000 x 1 GW power stations) Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 4

Global energy sources and reserves Solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TWy/y Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 5

Global energy sources and reserves Solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y Hydro: 1 TW Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TWy/y Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 Twy/y = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 6

Global energy sources and reserves Solar insolation: 100 000 TW = 80 000 Gtoe/y Hydro: 1 TW Biomass: -renewal: 600 TWy 80 TWy/y Wind: 0.5 TW Proven earth reserves, TWy Energy production: 15 TW = 12 Gtoe/y Coal: 8000 Oil: 200 Natural gas: 250 Uranium: 100 T. Suntola 7

Global energy balances Solid land biomass production 80 TWy/y Biomass 1,5 TW Fossil fuel 12 TW Forestry 7% Agriculture 4% Electricity by fossil 1,2 TW Popul. 1% Hydro 0,25 TW Nuclear 0,22 TW Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Energy production: 0,01 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 8

Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 30 GWy/y Biomass (including peat) 12 GWy/y Energy production 40 GWy/y Forestry residues Fossil fuels combustion Combustion based electricity Import 5 GWy/y 1 GWy/y 19 GWy/y Forestry industry 15 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Fossil fuels, trafic 7 GWy/y 1,8 GWy/y 2,2 GWy/y Hydro power Nuclear power Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 9

Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 30 GWy/y Forestry residues Forestry industry 15 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation Total energy consumption by energy source 1970-2003 Petajoule (PJ) / year Fossil fuels 22 GWy/y Biomass 4,6 GWy/y Energy production 35 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 3,1 GWy/y Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation 50 GWy/y Electricity import Other Peat Wood Hydro Nuclear Hydro power Natural gas 1,7 GWy/y Coal Oil Nuclear power 2,1 GWy/y T. Suntola 10

Energy balances in France Biomass production 120 GWy/y Energy production 280 GWy/y Agriculture residues 55 GWy/y Fossil fuels Hydro electricity 7 GWy/y 160 GWy/y Forestry Industry 7 GWy/y Agriculture products 35 GWy/y Population 5 GWy/y Biomass Nuclear electricity 38 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 7 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 120 GWy/y = 0,2 % of solar insolation Energy production: 280 Gwy/y = 0,45 % of solar insolation T. Suntola 11

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 4000 GW 3000 TOTAL Fossil Hydro 2000 Nuclear Biomass 1000 Wind Solar 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 13

Global production of electricity 1900-2100 10000 GW 1000 100 10 1 TOTAL Fossil Hydro Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar 0,1 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year T. Suntola 15

Primary energy scenario for 1900-2050 Global energy production TW 30 Other, new? Solar Wind Nuclear Oil 20 Oil Gas 10 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 Gas to liquid & Advanced coal Conventional coal Advanced biomass Conventional biomass Hydro T. Suntola 23

Primary energy scenario for 1900-2050 Global energy production TW 30 Other, new? Solar Wind Nuclear Oil 20 Oil Gas Gas to liquid & Advanced coal? 10 Conventional coal 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 Advanced biomass Conventional biomass Hydro 2100 T. Suntola 24

World Electricity Demand by Regions Consumption of electricity MWh / year / capita 12 8 North America OECD Pacific Western Europe Russia & Eastern Europe 4 0 Latin America East Asia Middle East & North Africa China India Rest of the world 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Population, cumulative [millions of people] T. Suntola 25

France Mobility by Travel Mode (passenger-kilometers per day per person) 10 2 100,000 All modes 10 1 Buses + cars 10,000 Km/day-cap 10 0 2-Wheelers Rail 1,000 Meter/day-cap 10-1 Railways Horses Air TGV 100 10-2 Waterways 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 10 Grübler IIASA 1998 T. Suntola 26

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 28

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 29

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 30

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas Hydrogen Gases Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 31

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas Hydrogen Coal, peat, wood-chips&pellets Gases Solid fuels Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 32

Energy products: from source to end-user - Availability, convenience, cost, emissions, energy efficiency Industry, metallurgy / chemicals / pulp&paper Households, heat / lightning / appliances Traffic, car / heavy / public / rail / sea / air Energy products Electricity Heat Liquid fuels Gasoline / diesel / kerosene Ethanol, methanol Natural gas Hydrogen Coal, peat, wood-chips&pellets Gases Solid fuels Crude oil Natural gas Coal Peat Biomass, residues & waste Bio-products, cultivated Hydro potential Wind potential Solar insolation Nuclear - availability -cost - emissions - energy efficiency T. Suntola 33

Hydrogen production / GJ Crude oil Natural gas 5 Coal 10 Peat Biomass, residues & waste 15 Bio-products, cultivated Hydro 10 Wind potential 30 Solar insolation 50 Nuclear 20 T. Suntola 34

Energy cost comparison 20 per GJ 10 0 Coal Oil Gas H2 fossil H2 renew. Petrol Elect. T. Suntola 35

Combustion energies of selected substances mol.w. kj/mol kj/g=gj/ton toe / ton MWh / ton Hydrogen H 2 2 285,8 142,90 3,52 39,69 Methane CH 4 16 890,8 55,68 1,37 15,46 Carbon C 12 393,5 32,79 0,81 9,11 Methanol CH 3 OH 32 726,1 22,69 0,56 6,30 Carbon monoxide CO 28 283,0 10,11 0,25 2,81 toe 40,61 11,28 T. Suntola 36

Global Mean Temperature Change T. Suntola INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 38CHANGE (IPCC)

Mauna Loa measurement on atmospheric CO 2 content 500 CO 2 (ppm) 450 400 350 300 250 200 1900 1950 2000 2050 T. Suntola 39

Global Mean Temperature Change CO 2 development 1900-2000 T. Suntola INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 40CHANGE (IPCC)

Global Mean Temperature Change T. Suntola INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE 41CHANGE (IPCC)

Carbon distribution in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 42

Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 60 Gt/y 100 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 43

Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 8 Gt/y 60 Gt/y 100 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 44

Carbon circulation in nature Atmosphere 700 Gt 8 Gt/y 50 Mt/y 100 Gt/y 60 Gt/y Forests 450 Gt Oceans 37 000 Gt Oil & gas 300 Gt Grass, ect. 100 Gt Soil 1300 Gt Coal 5000 Gt Sediment layer 20 000 Gt? T. Suntola 45

Carbon distribution in atmosphere and oceans 6 Gt annual CO 2 emissions 700 Gt atmosphere Natural CO 2 exchange 100 Gt/y Oceans 37 000 Gt 700 Gt 100 m surface layer 37 000 Gt deep oceans T. Suntola 46

Carbon distribution in atmosphere and oceans 6 Gt annual CO 2 emissions 700 Gt atmosphere Natural CO 2 exchange 100 Gt/y 50 Mt annual SO x emissions Oceans 37 000 Gt 700 Gt 100 m surface layer 37 000 Gt deep oceans T. Suntola 47

Reaction equations and the calculation procedure for the multiphase CaCO 3 -CO 2 -H 2 O system in the presence of sulfuric acid ( ) ( ) CO g CO aq (1) 2 2 + ( ) CO aq +H O H +HCO (2) 2 2 3 HCO H +CO (3) + 2 3 3 2+ 2 ( ) CaCO s Ca +CO (4) 3 3 () HSO l HSO +H (5) + 2 4 4 HSO H +SO (6) + 2 4 4 - T and p - standard H, C, S data - model for G E Solver for minimum (G) - concentrations - activities, ph - partial pressures - equilibrium constants T. Suntola 48

Equilibrium between CO 2 pressure and ocean at different temperatures 4,500E-04 p(co 2 ) [bar] 4,000E-04 Annual increase in the p(co 2 ) pressure 3,500E-04 T=25 C Effect of annual acid rain in 1 meter surface layer T=15 C 3,000E-04 2,500E-04 T= 5 C 2,000E-04 5,000E-04 5,500E-04 6,000E-04 6,500E-04 7,000E-04 CaCO 3 [mol/kg] T. Suntola 49

Effect of SO x emissions on atmospheric CO 2 equilibrium 1,2 1 0,8 SO x reference level 50 Mt(S)/year 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 500 450 CO 2 (ppm) 400 350 300 CO 2 (Mauna Loa) 250 200 1900 1950 2000 2050 T. Suntola 50

Global Warming & Climate Change The average global temperature is rising sharply due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. This rise in temperature is creating change in the world's climate which will have enormous consequences for people and the planet. Humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect by emitting greenhouse gases (GHGs) that trap energy and warm the atmosphere. Most of the emissions come from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gasoline. http://www.agores.org/general/climatehome.htm T. Suntola 52

Global Warming & Climate Change. OR. The average global temperature is rising sharply due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Humans are contributing to the greenhouse effect by disturbing the balance of carbon dioxide between the atmosphere, soil and waters. TS T. Suntola 53

Distribution of the earth area Area of solar panels needed for all present production of energy 0,06 % Buildings, roads, ect < 0,5 % Cropland 3 % Pasture 6,5 % Forests 8,1 % Deserts ect 9,4 % Oceans 73 % T. Suntola 54

Alternatives for solar insolation to electricity conversion 0,01 0,4 0,3 0,95 0,001 (total) Biomass / fossil fuels Sun -biomass -(fossil fuels) -combustion - turbine - generator - power grid 0,8 0,25 0,95 0,2 (total) Solar thermal Sun - heat collector - turbine -generator - power grid 0,12 0,9 0,1(total) Photovoltaic Sun - solar panels - inverter - power grid T. Suntola 55

Energy balances in Finland Biomass production 30 GWy/y Total energy consumption by energy source 2004 Petajoule (PJ) / year Energy production 35 GWy/y 50 GWy/y Forestry residues Fossil fuels Forestry industry 15 GWy/y Agriculture 1,6 GWy/y Population 0,5 GWy/y Solid land biomass production: 0,1 % of solar insolation 22 GWy/y Biomass 4,6 GWy/y Combustion based electricity 3,1 GWy/y Energy production: 0,15 % of solar insolation Hydro power 1,7 GWy/y Nuclear power 2,1 GWy/y T. Suntola 56

Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic 57 TU-Wien & IIASA 2003

Evolution of Global Primary Energy Nakicenovic 58 TU-Wien & IIASA 2003

H 2 cost / production alternatives / GJ Natural gas reforming (central) 5-8 Other fossil (oil POX, coal gasification) 10-12 Natural gas reforming (LNG) 12-15 Natural gas on site reforming 15-30 Biomass gasification 10-15 Electrolysis (hydroelectricity) 10-20 Electrolysis (wind) 20-40 Electrolysis (solar thermal) 40-60 Photoelectrolysis 50-100 T. Suntola 59