Séminaire "géopolitique de l'énergie"

Séminaire mensuel énergie Sciences Po CERI 13 mars 2015 Séminaire "géopolitique de l'énergie" Samuele Furfari Commission Européenne Université Libre de Bruxelles 1/

L'Union de l'énergie A secure, sustainable, competitive, affordable energy for every European 1 2 3 4 5 2/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Concrete actions and initiatives 3/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

How and for whom? Article 122.1 Solidarity and trust Article 194 speaking with one voice in global affairs An integrated continent-wide energy system Sustainable, low-carbon and climate-friendly economy For whom? 1. Strong, innovative and competitive European economy 2. Citizens taking ownership of the energy transition 4 4/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

1 Secure supplies We have to become less dependent on energy from outside the EU increasing transparency on gas supply diversifying sources, supplies and routes working together on security of supply developing a stronger European role in global energy markets. 5 5/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Secure supplies :Concrete actions Revision of security of gas supply regulation Comprehensive LNG strategy Develop alternative suppliers, including Southern Gas Corridor and with the Mediterranean Revision of the Decision on Intergovernmental Agreements EU Energy and climate policy diplomacy and trade policy 6 6/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

2 Internal energy market Energy should flow freely across the EU without any technical or regulatory barriers 2 connecting markets through interconnections implementing and upgrading the internal market's software enhancing regional cooperation empowering consumers. 7 7/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Concrete actions for the Internal energy market Implementation of major infrastructure projects (PCIs) Energy Infrastructure Forum Legislation on security of supply for electricity European electricity market design Reinforced European regulatory framework Guidance on regional cooperation Analysis of Energy prices and costs Vulnerable consumers protection 8 8/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

3 Energy efficiency first Rethink energy efficiency increasing energy efficiency in particular in the building sector promoting an energy-efficient and decarbonized transport sector efficient products. 9 9/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Concrete actions for energy efficiency Review the Energy Efficiency Directive Review the Energy Perfromance Building Directive Review the Energy Labelling and Ecodesign Directives Strengthened financial instruments to support investments in energy efficiency EU strategy for Heating and Cooling 10 10/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

4 Emissions reduction An ambitious climate policy is an integral part of our Energy Union 4 to enforce the 2030 energy and climate framework becoming the number one in renewables. 11 11/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Concrete actions for emissions reduction Legislation to achieve the 40% GHG reduction target (both in ETS and non ETS) Renewable Energy Package: RES directive revision, best practices for selfconsumption and support schemes Comprehensive road transport package Increased deployment of alternative fuels and clean vehicles 12 12/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

5 Research & innovation Developing EU technological leadership in low carbon technologies 13 5 13/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Research & innovation :Concrete actions Integrated SET Plan, including smart cities and smart financing Strategic transport research and innovation R&I agenda Initiative on EU global technology and innovation leadership 14 14/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

The Commission will launch a dynamic governance process for the European Energy Union Integrated energy and climate governance Streamlined planning and reporting Deepen MS cooperation, improved data analysis and intelligence Successful implementation depends on the political commitment of all actors concerned, including EU institutions and Member States! Annual reporting to the EP and Council 15 15/ Source: Directorate-General for Energy

Énergie = travail 16/

Bio! 2,7 milliards! 17/

1.3 G sans électricité dans le monde Access to electricity in sub-saharan Africa Million 1 800 1 500 1 200 900 Population with electricity access Population without electricity access 600 300 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 In sub-saharan Africa, 620 million people two-thirds of the population live without electricity. Only a handful of countries have electrification rates above 50% Nearly one billion people gain access to electricity, but this still leaves 530 million, primarily in rural communities, without power in 2040 18/

Consommation mondiale d'énergie Mtoe 14 000 12 000 10 000 Nucléaire 4% Charbon 30% Hydro 7% "Renouvel ables" 2% Pétrole 33% 5%/a 8 000 Gaz 24% 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Pétrole Gaz Charbon Nucléaire Hydro "Renouvelables" 19/

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La nouvelle Europe http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7292/10134658063_fca4fc3da2_o.jpg 21/

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Gb 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 World proven oil reserves are still growing Oil réserves (BP data) Middle East Rest of the world 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Oil réserves (BP data) Middle East 52% Rest of the world 600 400 200 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 40% 30% 48% 20% 10% 0% 23/ 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 $/b 140 Crude oil price evolution 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Stable oscillations Price band mechanism Abandonment of price band Recovering from Asia crisis Overpassing the price band Subprime crisis 24/

World conventional gas reserves 187,3 +5%/y 71,6 25/

Tm³ GAS EN MOZAMBIQUE Entre Juin 2012 et Juin 2013 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 K T 0 Rovuma (M) Norway M 26/

Tm³ 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Israël Liban Norway 27/

Algeria Libya America Caspian Sea 28/

USA gas production 29/

Saudi America 30/

b/d.rig Mm³/d.rig 600 Oil rig productivity 400 Gas rig productivity 500 400 350 300 250 300 200 200 150 100 100 50-2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara permian Utica - 2006 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 Bakken Eagle Ford Haynesville Marcellus Niobrara permian Utica 31/

The Bureau of Energy Resources Amos J Hochstein will ensure that all our diplomatic relationships advance our interests in having access to secure, reliable, and ever-cleaner sources of energy. To manage the geopolitics of today s energy economy through reinvigorated energy diplomacy with major producers and consumers. 32/

33/ John Boehner Orrin Hatch

Please, come back to Iran. We will change our buy-back contract's type Davos, 23/1/2014 34/

4 000 Mtep 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Le charbon dans le monde Production 4 000 Mtep 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 Consommation 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Chine U.S.A. Inde UE Australie Russie Indonesie Afrique Sud Reste du monde 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Chine U.S.A. Inde UE Japon Russie Afrique Sud Coréé S Reste du monde Asia /Pacific : 70% of world consumption China : 50 % of world consumption 35/

Le charbon, important pour l'énergie et encore plus pour l'électricité Total Primary Energy Supply 19,1Gtce Gross Power Generation 22 500Twh 21% 10% 1% 2% 5% 30% 11% 16% 5% 41% 32% 22% 5% Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Energy Hydro Traditional Biomas New Renewables 36/

TWh Production mondiale d'électricité par énergie primaire 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Autres ren 41% 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 22% 16% 12% 5% 4% 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Data : Energy Pocket Book (EC, 2014) 37/

Part du charbon dans la génération d'électricité (%) World DK U.S.A. UK Germany Czech Rep Bulgaria Grèce India Australia Israël Serbie China Poland S. Africa 9 9 21 38 35 36 40 3 2 26 45 46 56 65 48 70 76 79 51 94 22 3 33 Coal Lignite 0 20 40 60 80 100 38/

Mt coal Chine: le charbon n'a pas d'autres alternatives 400 millions "Occidentals" + 1200 million "Indians" Country is completely electrified 3 000 Consommation de charbon en Chine Hydro 6% Gaz N 4% Nuc 1% Ren 1% 2 500 2 000 1 500 Pétrole 18% Charbon 70% 1 000 500 2003 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 39/

Mt CO2 Emissions de CO 2 10 000 9 000 R of W 45% China 27% 8 000 7 000 6 000 U.S.A. China EU 11% 5 000 India U.S.A. 17% 4 000 3 000 EU +55% depuis Rio-1992 2 000 1 000 Former Soviet Union 0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Data : BP 2014 40/

Merci pour votre attention sfurfari@ulb.ac.be 41/