Consequential Life Cycle Analysis Case study of the biomass

Transcription

1 Renewable energies Eco-friendly production Innovative transport Eco-efficient processes Sustainable resources Consequential Life Cycle Analysis Case study of the biomass Jean-François Gruson and LCA and Modelling team Economy and Environmental Evaluation Department

2 Outline The context Critical issues of WTT GHG assessments of biomass/biofuels IFPEN ongoing works in this field : methods, skills, tools and possible outcomes 2

3 Contexte Biomass for energy Worldwide increase fo biofuel production Supply security Climate change mitigation G1 biofuels: Direct and indirect land use change Competition with food and feed price impact Questionning of the real GHG reduction benefits Advanced bio fuels: G2 and G3 3 Better «trademak» But uncertainties Land use Economy Competition with other energy use

4 POWER HEAT Context & goals Current EU 2020 renewable energy (RE) policy / 2009 Energy sector : 20% RE in the final energy consumption in 2020 TRANSPORTS 6% reduction of life cycle GHG emissions of energy supplied in road transport (incl. fossil fuel and renewable fuels) Renewable energy in transport sector 10% RE incorporation rate in the transport sector in 2020 Coefficients to incent new technologies (*2 for biofuels produced from wastes, lignocellulosic feedstock or algae, *2.5 for renewable electricity) Certification of biofuel sustainability : minimum GHG emissions savings compared to 2010 ref. fuels, assessed on a WTW basis but excluding emissions associated to ILUC 4

5 Outline The context Critical issues of WTT GHG assessments of biomass/biofuels IFPEN ongoing works in this field : methods, skills, tools and possible outcomes 5

6 Key LCA factors of discussion Data availability and quality Attributional (process-based) vs. consequential LCA? System boundaries Cultivation and harvesting characteristics for representative feedstocks Characteristics for representative conversion pathways Emission factors per step of analysis (e.g. energy production, fertilizers input, ) Co-product allocation methodology and assumptions GHG emissions of alternative aviation fuels Fossil fuel baseline emissions Uncertainty levels over time horizon

7 Induced Land Use Change: a example of issue for LCA and C-LCA ISO/TS 14067: change in the use or management of land which is a consequence of direct land use change, but which occurs outside the product system being assessed >>>> Representation in economic modelling Increased demand for an agricultural commodity induces a price increase to result in change in supply. Market-mediated responses are: Switch among crops Land conversion among crop, forest, grassland, etc. Yield improvement Reduced consumption from increased prices Trade impacts Very controversial results and methodology discussions

8 Questions Is there any scientific concensus on LCA for advanced biofuels? Traditionnal A-LCA is it the right way to definition of optimal/ no regret public policy for climate change mitigation? 8

9 Outline The context Critical issues of WTT GHG assessments of biomass/biofuels C-LCA could be a solution? IFPEN ongoing works in this field : methods, skills, tools and possible outcomes 9 IFPEN/DEV/D3E/FB ICAO AFTF WP3 Task 3.3 IFPEN input July 2014

10 C-LCA: what and why? quantification of the environmental consequences of a specific decision and of the related actions (Ekvall & Weidema, 2002) link micro-economic actions to macro-economic consequences, by identifying the (marginal) suppliers and technologies prone to be affected by large scale fluctuations in demand of commodities (Daalgard, 2008) A system modeling approach in which activities in a product system are linked so that activities are included in the product system to the extent that they are expected to change as a consequence of a change in demand for the functional unit (UNEP, 2011),generally extended product system ) 10

11 A more and more complex and integrated energy system 11

12 Source: ScoreLca and CRP-Tudor study Écrire ici dans le masque le nom de votre Direction Écrire ici dans le masque le titre de la présentation Date de la présentation

13 13 Source: ScoreLca and CRP-Tudor study

14 Methodology of IFPEN biofuel case study C-LCA methodology based on the use of a long-term energy model MIRET model developed at IFP Energie nouvelles with TIMES (bottom-up model generator) Model representing the French energy transport sectors over period MIRET model has been adapted to perform analysis according to a Life Cycle perspective Model fed with GHG emission factors extracted from the LCA ECOINVENT database covering all WTW steps of involved energy pathways Negative emission factors are assigned to products exported outside the boundaries of the considered system ( credits corresponding to avoided emissions elsewhere) Calculation performed with MIRET to both identify all "affected" processes based on market mechanisms & quantify corresponding GHG emissions trade-offs 14 Écrire ici dans le masque le nom de votre Direction Écrire ici dans le masque le titre de la présentation Date de la présentation

15 Methodology Simplified structure of the MIRET model (France ) Energy resource supply Conversion technologies Demands of energy service Renewables Uranium Power production Heat production Electricity Households Coal Cogeneration Heat Industry Natural Gas Biomass Crude oil Refining Biofuels production Fuels Fleet Mobility 15

16 ACV-C et prospective Présentation ACV conséquentielle Adaptée à l analyse de changements suite à une prise de décision (prise en compte des processus impactés) ACV-C Hausse de la demande de matières premières Biocarburant Hausse de l offre des coproduits Hausse de l offre des produits Culture / collecte Transport biomasse Transformation Transport / distribution Utilisation Coproduits ACV-A 16

17 ACV-C et prospective Étude de cas BTL Secteur agricole et forestier Biomasse Prétraitement Gazéification Secteur électrique 17 Synthèse FT Upgrading Électricité Gazole Kérosène Naphta Transport routier Aviation Industrie Pétrochimique

18 C-LCA and biofuels case study - Objectives 18

19 Scenario context REFERENCE Optimisation without policy constraints POLICY (public policy scenario) National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) Renewable Energy Directive (RED) 19 19

20 Preliminary results 20 Écrire ici dans le masque le nom de votre Direction Écrire ici dans le masque le titre de la présentation Date de la présentation

21 Transport focus: impact of policy scenario 21 Écrire ici dans le masque le nom de votre Direction Écrire ici dans le masque le titre de la présentation Date de la présentation

22 To be published Also : SETAC North America Long Beach F. Bouvart & S. Tchung-Ming 14st November 2012 : Assessing scenarios in consequential LCA using a long-term energy model: application to GHG emissions in the French energy sector 22 Écrire ici dans le masque le nom de votre Direction Écrire ici dans le masque le titre de la présentation Date de la présentation

23 C-LCA and prospective issues Better understanding of the gaps between A-LCA practice and the concrete use of economic models for C-LCA C-LCA explain the substitution effects occurring in the system Due to complexity (number of technologies affected), a systemic approach (bottom-up model) insure the consistency of the consequences up to the quality of data But Complex iterative approach Quality of data (marginal technologies ) Representation of all the sectors impacted (modelling ) Economic links 23

24 C-LCA and prospective issues Key elements to support this choice: decision context (and its boundaries), the position of the change(s) to be analyzed along the time horizon, the availability, transparency and reliability of consequential inventory data and communication of the results 24

25 IFPEN ongoing works in this field : methods, skills, tools and possible outcomes C-LCA / Incremental approach : ongoing work with a 2035 timeframe GHG emissions for the refining step in 2035 (including upgrading and H 2 production) are assessed with IFPEN refining model (LP) optimization tool describing the worldwide refining sector (9 zones : North America, South America, Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Former Soviet Union, Africa, Middle East, China, Asia-Pacific) European project: Scenarios for the electrification of transport WP3 Environmental assessment: LCA and quantification of external costs C-LCA boundaries will include the whole European energy sector in order to include in the analysis potential repercussions ("affected processes) of PHEV & BEV deployment for instance on : car production, power supply markets... due to substitution effects 25 IFPEN/DEV/D3E/FB ICAO AFTF WP3 Task 3.3 IFPEN input July 2014

26 WP1 Starting point = PET36 initial model Results from 2 existing runs No Policy Policy (tbd) WP3 A-LCA LCI datasets Emission factors (GHG, NOx, SOx,?) 26 WP3 WP1 Technical data survey : vehicles, grids Technology cost survey : vehicles, grids WP1 Efficiencies, emission factors WP2 PET36 calibrated model Policy scenario definition SCelecTRA project General Assembly - July 3rd, 2012 Rueil Malmaison WP4 PET36 analysis of considered policy scenarios WP3? WP4 Emission C-LCA results for each scenario C-LCI for each scenario PET36 analysis including external costs WP3? Ext. cost evaluation

27 Renewable energies Eco-friendly production Innovative transport Eco-efficient processes Sustainable resources