The future of solar electricity (Photovoltaics)

The future of solar electricity (Photovoltaics) Stanislaw M. PIETRUSZKO Centre for Photovoltaics Warsaw University of Technology

Responsible energy policy for the future Renewable energy sources with an efficient and rational use of energy are capable of: preserving resources, ensuring security and diversity of energy supply, providing energy services, virtually without any environmental impact. RES are well distributed and decentralised.

Why Photovoltaics? Direct conversion of sunlight to electricity No pollution No noise Wide range of applications (off- and on grid, BIPV) Modularity Helpful in disasters

2008 85% 2007 70% 2006 40% 2005 45% 2004 60% 2003-32% 2002-44% 2001-36% 2000-43%

World Cell Production Shares per region (MW) in 2008 (2007)

TOP PV markets 2006-2008 Total market volume: 2006: 1 600 MWp 2007: 2 400 MWp 2008: 5 500 MWp New installed 2006 New installed 2007 New installed 2008 1100 1500 2511 MWp Updated 24 April 2009, Source: 2008: EPIA/BSW/national PV associations, 2006: Eurobserver, IEA-PVPS

PV Market Drivers National Programs Technological development

The four main technology routes Crystalline Silicon (wafer based) Thin Film III V compounds (GaAs) New Concepts 9

Classification of Solar Cell types by basic material and its form / (crystalline-) structure single crystalline Silicon crystalline amorphous + µc multi crystalline Si thin film CdTe Chalcogenides CIS Solar Cell Compound Semiconductors III - V group GaAs, InP, etc. other Chalcopyrites GaAs Dye sensitised InP Other Concepts organic structures others others

Best cell Efficiencies Source: NREL Note: This graph does not include the 40.8% multijunction concentrator cell confirmed in 2008, nor the re-evaluated CIGS cell at 20% (September, 2008).

PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS off-grid domestic off-grid non-domestic on-grid distributed on-grid centralised (>100( kw) consumer applications space applications

Off-grid domestic 2 bln people without electricity

Off-grid non domestic

On-grid distributed

BIPV - colored solar cell

On-grid centralised

Space applications

Customer Needs on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency /kwh /hr light W/m² g/w /m² / aesthetics /W flexibility W/mm² Source: Fraunhofer ISE

Energy pay-back time (NL): status and near-future development 4,00 3,50 3,00 Year 2,50 2,00 1,50 BoS Frame Laminate 1,00 0,50 0,00 ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVSEC21 (2006)

Energy Payback for PV Systems Cumulative Net Clean Energy Payoff 120 MWh clean energy 80 40 Investment Return 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Years Source: NREL

Cost of Energy (EURO cent/kwh) Fossil fuels coal 5-9 gas 3 5 Nuclear 4-9 Renewable energy wind 4-12 water 2-8 biomass 5 9 solar thermal 12-18 Solar electricity (PV) 25-65

SOLAR ELECTRICITY PV is positioned to meet the critical energy-sector demands world-wide in the coming decades. The cost of photovoltaic (PV) electricity: too high for bulk power production in utility grids cost-effective for peak power applications and local grid support Important natural market in the worldwide off-grid applications

24h-Energy Profile Solar Energy Electrical Energy [arb. units] Electricity supplied by Utility Fed-In Energy Energy consumption of building Electricity supplied by Utility 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 24:00 Low Tariff High Tariff Low Tariff

Tokyo Electric Power Cooperation (Jp) Tariff 2005 Range of Electricity Prices in California (data from Alison Hyde, BSW) /kwh Summer 31,92 $ct/kwh 60 30 Winter 26,78 summer 20 20,64 21,42 Standard 40 20 10 6,35 winter 0 0 6 12 18 24 hours hours 0 6 12 18 24

PV Competitiveness Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices /kwh 1,0 0,8 0,6 900 h/a: 0,60 /kwh 1800 h/a: 0,30 /kwh Photovoltaics Utility peak power 0,4 0,2 Bulk power Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH 0,0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Value of PV kwhs PV solar electricity systems provide decentralized kwhs at point of use good integration in future Smart Electricity Networks excellent correlation with high prices at peak hours in summer and afternoons Value of PV kwhs is not correlated with avoided fuel costs for power stations cost and price of bulk power electricity but well correlated with peak hour prices in liberalized markets (higher cost for peak electricity results in higher prices) today 20 30 ct/kwh future 25 40 ct/kwh

SRA aims quantified: characteristics of PV technology 1980 Today 2015 / 2020 2030 Long term potential Typical turn-key system price (2006 /Wp, excl. VAT) >30 5 (range 4~8) 2.5 / 2.0 1 0.5 Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2006 /kwh) Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies >2 0.30 0.15 / 0.12 (competitive with retail electricity) up to 8% up to 15% 0.06 (competitive with wholesale electricity) 0.03 Up to 20% up to 25% up to 40% Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies ( 10%) up to 25% Up to 30% up to 40% up to 60% Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs) >10 2 1 0.5 0.25

Grid parity in Europe 2007 (lines to guide the eye) irradiation (kwh/m 2 yr) PV generation cost ( /kwh) 600 0.50 1000 0.30 1400 0.21 1800 0.17 insolation map: Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/

Grid parity in Europe 2010 (lines to guide the eye) irradiation (kwh/m 2 yr) PV generation cost ( /kwh) 600 0.50 1000 0.30 1400 0.21 1800 0.17

Electricity Production by RES in Germany Electricity production in TWh BSW-Solar 2008 Hydro energy Wind energy Biomass solid Biogas Biomass liquid Biomass others Photovoltaic Geothermal Total Electricity production by PV in 2007: 3 TWh Share of PV of electricity demand: 0.6% Source: BSW-Solar 36

Market introduction Renewable Energy Law (EEG) since April 2000 (revised Jan. 2004 and June 2008) tells how to deal with electricity from Renewables fed into the grid Reimbursement - Photovoltaic 0,54 0,62 EUR/kWh over 20 years Reimbursement will be lowered for new systems by 5% (8-9%) annually from 2009 FEED-IN TARIF THE BEST SUPPORT MECHANISM

Schematic of typical grid connected PV system

Development of the German PVmarket PV Market Data 2007 Newly installed power Total installed power Milestones 1999-2003: 1991: First Feed-in Law 100,000 Roofs Progr. Low-interest loans 2000: Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) for 300 MWp 2004: Amendment of EEG 150 1991-1995: 80 78 1,000 Roofs 40 10 12 Program 3 3 3 3 4 7 12 600 850 850 1100 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BSW-Solar 2008 annually installed PV power in MWp 1 100 MWp 3 834 MWp No. of newly installed systems 130 000 No. of total systems installed 430 000 Turnover 2006 5 Bln /7.25 Bln $ Employees 40 000 total installed PV power in MWp 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Total installed PV power in MWp 39

Solar cell/module production 2005-2010 (GW) 25 20 15 10 5 0 Non-c-Si c-si 4 0,7 3,3 6,1 1,1 5 10,2 1,5 8,7 15,1 2 13,1 20,5 2,6 17,9 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: Photon Consulting Note: Preliminary

Electricity generating cost [ ct/kwh] Today Tomorrow Day after tomorrow Eurelectric / VGB Power Tech 2005 2030 2050 Fossile (coal, gas) 4-4.5 6-7 6.5-9 Nuclear (PWR, HTR, FBR) PV solar electricity (south/north) 4 6 3.5 7 3.5-6 20/40 5/10 3/6 = own estimates

Warsaw University of Technology CENTRE FOR PHOTOVOLTAICS Stanislaw M. Pietruszko Koszykowa 75, 00-662 Warsaw, Poland tel.: +48-22-234 7782, 7530; fax: +48-22-234 7782 pietruszko@pv.pl http://www.pv.pl Version: Polish and English