TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS FOR THE POLISH ENERGY MARKET THROUGH 2050

Transcription

1 RWE Polska TECHNOLOGY SCENARIOS FOR THE POLISH ENERGY MARKET THROUGH 2050 RWE Study

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3 3 ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES OF THE FUTURE MAY REVOLUTIONISE THE WORLD WE LIVE IN. During the 21st century, we will witness a more rapid development and integration of new technologies than ever before. This acceleration will change the way we behave as consumers and customers, impact industry and transform the global economy. The energy sector is no exception it is currently undergoing a deep and fundamental transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of power generation, from a centralization to decentralization of units, from a purely commodity-based supply towards a set of innovative products and services managing the entire spectrum of energy needs, and, last but not least, from classic channels towards digital ones. Some of the technological solutions, for example, energy storage and generation from renewable sources, will bring lasting disruption to the standard business model in energy. Coupled with the further development of internet technologies that will change the way customers experience relations with their suppliers, technologic development is fundamentally changing our world. As individuals and businesses, we should prepare ourselves for these future solutions. With this in mind, RWE has issued a report entitled, Technology scenarios for the Polish energy market through 2050, which I am proud to present to you as way in which we would like to participate in the discussion concerning the future. Poland is a key market for RWE, and since 2002, the company has invested approximately PLN 5 billion in energy sales, distribution, production, and renewable generation. During that time, we have gained a profound body of knowledge about the Polish energy sector. Combining this experience with RWE s knowledge of other markets in Europe, where RWE serves 23 million customers with energy and gas and generates TWh of electric energy (in 2013), we feel we have developed the license to present our thoughts on the potential variants of Poland s development of energy technologies. Our voice in this debate on the future shape of Poland s energy market is the voice of a corporation with a strong record of international research and development and a company that advocates economically feasible innovation. Energy is, and will continue to become, a decisive factor for the future. For this reason, the technological choices that are made will strongly impact economic growth, energy security and the quality of life for millions of citizens. The energy sector as we know it has gone through a dramatic transformation in recent years with traditional technologies for energy generation gradually being replaced by low-emission, especially renewable, ones. The development of these new sources of energy was originally possible only due to strong government support schemes but they are now becoming economically viable on their own. As energy generation from renewable sources continues to expand, it will help to further reduce negative impacts on the climate. Energy consumers will become prosumers, connected to the grid and producing increasing and substantial volumes of energy. The mobile technology revolution, which has already influenced both the energy markets and client experience in a major way, will continue to accelerate. Due to the implementation of smart metering technologies and the development of mobile applications, clients will become more aware of their personal energy consumption and will be able to manage it more effectively. The economics of green technologies has been constantly improving and they now compete on the market which is in turn further driving progress and innovation. Finally, the devices and systems that store energy for later use will continue to develop, overcoming one of the major barriers to green energy development. This report includes an analysis of the technological challenges facing Poland s energy sector as well as some prospects we see in each particular segment. It utilizes the rich experience of RWE Group from different markets and applies this knowledge-base to the context of Poland. Within the publication, we have proposed a timeline for the development of various technologies irrespective of the direction of the four scenarios, projecting the potential trends of Polish energy. Each technology is evaluated in terms of socio-economic factors, impact on the economy, and finally, the entire energy sector. We hope that our report will make a legitimate impact on this fundamental debate regarding the future of energy technologies in Poland. Please enjoy, Filip Thon President of RWE Polska, Member of the Board of RWE Retail

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5 5 ORIGIN OF THE STUDY There are significant challenges facing the energy sector as it seeks to meet greater demands of electricity as well as the necessity of significant infrastructure investments. However, the inability to accurately predict the path that these developments will ultimately take strongly impacts the investment decisions that are made. The questions of the eventual path of technological developments and the future of the Polish energy system are open ones. As part of this discussion, RWE has developed the study, Technology scenarios for the Polish energy market through The aim of this study is to indicate the technologies that RWE considers to be the most likely to expand and influence the sector significantly until 2050, irrespective of the direction of development for the energy industry. We want to stress that our study represents the thoughts and opinions of our energy expert team on the hypothetical development of technologies and their potential impact on the Polish market. The study was prepared via professional strategic-planning models in cooperation with external experts on the Polish market and with the use of public opinion research as well as the experience and know-how of RWE Group. It involved experts from various areas of RWE such as, Strategy, Research & Development, Energy Policy, Business Development, Thermal Generation, Grid, Smart Metering and E-Mobility.

6 6 BACKGROUND Our study on technological development is derived from an analysis of four long-term scenarios of hypothetical market development. It was developed holistically through an analysis of not only the conventional energy generation sector and heat market, but also decentralized technologies. In the study, technology is treated as an uncertain variable and as such, different costs for technological developments were considered in the scenarios. Technology costs for conventional power plants were assumed to develop according to historical patterns, and for emerging technologies such as photovoltaics, further cost decreases were assumed, albeit at a slower rate than in the past. Our research produced several findings that we think are very interesting, however we would like to stress that these are potential futures rather than prescriptive plans to reach them. The study is prepared with an ultimate horizon of 2050, which allows us to consider development a longer term perspective but also makes 2030 results more plausible.

7 7 KEY ASSUMPTIONS AND DEVELOPMENTS IN HYPOTHETICAL MARKET SCENARIOS Muddling Through No consistent energy policy or cohesion in long-term decisions. Low GDP growth, electricity demand at a constant level, and high regulatory uncertainty. The result of this is delays in investments. 200 Electricity generation by source TWh 100 Decentral PV Increasing RES & Gas CHP Electricity generation by source Polish National Way Decentral PV Increasing RES & Gas CHP A national approach with activity focused on energy independence and domestic fossil fuels. Moderate GDP growth, Electricity generation by source a constant increase in electricity demand, and reliable investment conditions. Priority is set on investments in 200 conventional energy sources coupled with Stablea focus and new techniques used Wind to backed extract Polish shale gas. Coal & Lignite by high demand Electricity generation by source TWh Stable Coal & Lignite Wind backed by high demand Nuclear Lignite Coal Gas Combined heat and power Battery 200 Electricity others generation Biomass by source Hydro Wind Demand side management Photovoltaic prosumer Photovoltaic ground mounted Wind, PV, Gas CHP Increasing and Nuclear for CO RES & Gas CHP neutral energy mix Electricity generation by source Wind, PV, Gas CHP Increasing and Nuclear for CO 2

8 200 Electricity generation by source 100 Increasing RES & Gas CHP Decentral PV Electricity generation by source Increasing 100 RES & Gas CHP 0 Decentral PV Electricity generation by source Electricity generation by source Stable Coal & Lignite Wind backed by high demand 200 Stable Wind backed 0 Coal & Lignite Green by high 2050 demand 100 A preference for solutions which enhance the development of energy generation from renewable sources. 0 Moderate GDP growth, a constant increase in electricity demand, and an EU policy focused on an 80 per cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 compared to emission levels from 2006 (all other scenarios assume a target of emission reductions of 50 per cent). Shale gas is considered as potential for CO 2 reduction and supported by the government. Society opts for the cheapest CO 2 -neutral technology, be it photovoltaic, wind, biomass, or nuclear. 200 Electricity generation by source TWh 100 Increasing RES & Gas CHP Wind, PV, Gas CHP and Nuclear for CO 2 neutral energy mix Electricity generation by source Wind, PV, Gas CHP Increasing and Nuclear for CO RES & Gas CHP neutral energy mix Innovative smart metering, grids and decentralized solutions. Batteries, photovoltaic and shale gas mining experience great cost 500 Electricity generation by source reductions, and the existing combined heat and power fleet undergoes full modernization Electricity generation by source TWh Technology is the driver of change, high GDP growth, and an increased demand for electricity. Poland invests in Demand growth met by decentral PV and Wind Longterm PV becomes established technology Longterm PV Storage becomes for established structuring RES technology generation Demand growth met by decentral PV and Wind Storage for structuring 2050 RES generation

9 9 WHAT WE FOUND, PERSPECTIVES AND RESULTS The analysis of four hypothetical scenarios for the development of the Polish power industry Muddling Through, Polish National Way, Green and Innovative resulted in the creation of a schedule for the development of technologies on the Polish energy market till Regardless of the scenario adopted, the study presents the potential for development of the technologies in question and time frames for their maturity. It also includes an analysis of relationships between the scenarios and particular technologies, prepared on the grounds of the following criteria: energy security, CO 2 reduction, energy prices and impact on the grid. TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE TODAY New generation of hard coal unit built New lignite opencast required Growth in decentral gas CHP sector (<50MWth) picks up Gas and biomass to gain 25% share in CHP sector PV systems parity (different customer segments) PV ground mounted units (>1 MW) reach generation parity Onshore wind reaches generation parity E-cars appear on Polish roads 1 TWh electricity consumption by e-cars is achieved First battery storages residential First battery storages large First nuclear power plant Muddling Through PL National way Green Innovative

10 10 Key conclusions Energy security Poland will remain energy independent: In every scenario, Poland will not have to increase its imports of energy. However, domestic energy will no longer be generated primarily from coal. New domestic sources such as wind, photovoltaics and gas, including shale gas, will contribute to energy independence (greater than 80 per cent of electricity produced from domestic sources). CO 2 emission reduction Poland can reach demanding CO 2 targets: The level of CO 2 emissions is currently quite high in Poland and will be indirectly influenced by the expected growth of the demand of electricity. Thus, Poland needs to reduce its level of emissions to comply with EU targets. On one hand, this constitutes a major challenge for an energy sector that is based on coal which currently produces high emissions. On the other hand, Poland will be forced to modernize the majority of its power generation assets based on new low-emissive sources of energy. In every scenario, Poland does not follow a single path, but rather employs a portfolio of technologies that reduces CO 2 and, at the same time, involves relatively low expenditures. Examples of technologies that could be used to achieve this goal are gas-based combined heat and power, photovoltaics and wind. These technologies contribute in all scenarios to overall CO 2 reduction. The total level of reductions that are achieved depends on the share that each particular energy source has in the energy mix which is different in each scenario. CO 2 emissions and reduction range, electricity and district heating sectors million t to to to to to to to to 110 CO 2 emissions 2014 Additional demand Replacement of old with new coal units CCGTs CHP Gas based New nuclear New PV New Wind CO 2 emissions 2050

11 11 The price of energy The transformation of the energy market will not affect the real price of energy: Based on experiences from other countries, Poland may shape the pace of transformation of its domestic energy sector and, at the same time, avoid the negative influence of a rushed conversion from conventional sources of energy. Furthermore, the Polish electricity generation sector is due for investment. Poland does not need to be a pioneer in the development of new technologies and may adapt its fleet much more efficiently to changing environments and build on decreasing costs of new technologies. In all scenarios, Poland could optimize expenses on technologies and choose the cheapest ones, be it wind, coal or photovoltaics. This allows the price of energy to be maintained at a sustainable level. From a market perspective, there are no factors that should lead to the increase in the price of energy in the long term. An exception is the Muddling-through scenario, where high regulatory uncertainty impedes necessary investments and drives up power prices. 25 Households electricity prices (real 2012) ct/kwh 20 Muddling Through Polish National Way Green Innovative Power generation via conventional sources of energy It is anticipated that hard coal and lignite will continue to be a relevant part in the generation mix. Within the time horizon that was evaluated through 2050, hard coal and lignite are anticipated to continue to be a significant part of the Polish energy mix. The current fleet will operate until the end of its lifetime, and by 2030, new facilities are expected to be built (3-11 GW till 2030). In our study, when nuclear energy could become relevant, it must compete with other zero-emission generation technologies. By the time the first nuclear plant could be commissioned, the price of technologies like wind and photovoltaics will have fallen already, and power generation from renewable sources will have become profitable without additional support.

12 12 Decentralized power generation Able to grow significantly in importance. We expect that decentralized photovoltaics will become economical within the next 5 years due to decreasing module prices. A new segment of customers is likely to emerge in Poland which generates and also sells electric energy prosumers first in the service sector, and later also in the residential sector. Decentral generation (CHP below 20MW, capacity, rooftop PV) TWh 50 4, Split Split Muddling through PL National way Green Innovative Muddling through PL National way Green Innovative Muddling Through Polish National Way Green Innovative Coal CHP Gas CHP RES CHP PV decentral Combined heat and power and heating sector The refurbishment of local plants becomes attractive. Poland has great potential for the development of combined heat and power. In every scenario, this will be leveraged, replacing small and medium sized coal-heat only units with new, efficient combined heat and power, especially based on gas. This will both ease the Polish CO 2 balance and meet the increasing demand for electricity.

13 13 New technologies It is expected that the roll-out of smart meters will result in a range of positive effects, such as, demand reduction, peak load moderation and cost savings from metering. As smart meters become more prevalent, a new market could emerge which provides specific, value added services and the ability to further use the functions of smart metering. E-mobility is expected to become a market force in Poland by around The popularization of electric motors could also increase the demand for electricity while simultaneously decreasing Poland s dependency on the import of conventional fuels. 18 Consumption of power from electric cars TWh 13,5 Muddling Through Polish National Way Green Innovative 9 4, Impact on the grid Demand growth and decentralized technologies require continuous development of the grid. Growing power demand will require the steady expansion of infrastructure for electricity generation. Initially, the impact of decentralized production from both photovoltaics and smaller combined heat and power on the grid should be limited, but in the long run, with the growing popularity of prosumer energy generation, grid development will become more relevant. However, by that time smart technologies should be prevalent enough to facilitate an easier integration of grid development.

14 14 DESCRIPTION OF THE CHOSEN TECHNOLOGIES The study presents descriptions of wind power, photovoltaics, energy storage and e-mobility technologies. RWE has been actively engaged in the development of these technologies, not only on the level of production, but also in R&D. We have leveraged the know-how and experience gathered by RWE in order to develop an assessment of the potential of these technologies. From our point of view, they are quite promising despite the fact that both the exact direction that the development these technologies will take and the role they will ultimately play are difficult to determine and accurately predict. Wind Wind energy is the kinetic energy of moving air masses in the atmosphere. As these movements are created by differential solar heating of the Earth s atmosphere, wind energy could be described as an indirect form of solar energy. Since ancient times, this energy has been used by man, transferring this wind power into mechanical energy via technology like sails and windmills. Modern windmills share similar features with the original versions, but this similarity is superficial at best. The most common modern wind turbines are constructed with a horizontal axis and have a three-bladed rotor operating on top of the tower with variable speeds and implemented pitch control for adapting power generation to changing wind speeds. They use large blades and highly efficient turbines to turn more than 45 per cent of the kinetic wind energy into electricity. Starting in the 1980 s, the power ratings of turbines have developed impressively from early average ratings of 50 kw to current turbines of 3 MW, an increase of approximately 6000 per cent. For offshore installations, there are now 8 to 10 MW turbines under development, yet another large power increase from the current state-of-the-art, 6 MW turbines. These advances will greatly increase the installed capacity per turbine which in 2012 averaged 2.4 MW for onshore turbines and 4 MW offshore ones. The next phase of innovation in this technology can now be focused on lowering the cost of wind turbines for offshore generation. More generally, there will be further improvement in designs that reduce the cost of non-turbine components as well as in the installation, system integration and maintenance costs of turbines and associated systems. The current levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind energy generation is 6 to 8 euro cents

15 15 per kwh at optimal sites. A further decrease of 10 per cent is expected to occur by Though offshore wind is stronger and more reliable than onshore wind, it is more expensive to install wind turbines at ocean sites. The LCOE for offshore wind farms ranges from 13 to 15 euro cents per kwh, with this number expected to decrease by more than 30 per cent by RWE has been operating wind farms in arrays of up to hundreds of turbines throughout Europe for more than ten years now, including offshore wind farms on the open sea. There is very active research and development by RWE along with the company s participation in the Offshore Wind Accelerator initiative. The objective is to test innovative wind measuring devices for accurately registering local wind conditions, an important prerequisite for the engineering, construction and optimised performance of new wind farms. RWE R&D has also launched a research project called Vibro in Cuxhaven, Germany, aimed at reducing installation times and noise emissions during the construction of offshore wind farms. Together with other partners in the project, RWE is testing whether driving the offshore foundations for turbines into the sea bed by means of vibrations is more efficient and environmentally friendly than the traditional practice of ramming the support piles into the seafloor.

16 16 Photovoltaics Photovoltaic cells directly convert sunlight into electric energy using the photoelectric effect. These cells are then combined into panels in order to form solar panels. Solar panels can be used in a small arrays to power a single building or home or deployed in large solar farms that feed into the power grid. Technologically speaking, one must distinguish between: generation cells with mono- and polycrystalline Si and an efficiency above 20 per cent, generation cells with thin film technologies e.g. CdTe and lower costs but lower efficiency, and generation cells made from organic materials, which are the cheapest but have the lowest efficiencies of only around 10 per cent. These low-cost cells are still in the development stage. Photovoltaics today account for the largest share of solar power production and will continue to globally gain even more importance in the future. The cost of solar photovoltaic cells and the overall cost of solar power generation has dropped dramatically in the past decade. The current levelized cost of electricity for large scale, greater than 1000 kwp, photovoltaic installations in central Europe ranges from 11 to 15 euro cents per kwh and could further fall. R&D will focus on system efficiency, cost reduction through replacing expensive materials with cheaper ones, and new cell structures. Of increasing importance is system integration, meaning, and the application of photovoltaics in combination with energy management systems or smart grids. This could further include other electrical devices and storage technologies. In the category of solar power, RWE offers several innovative products such as Smart Home, HomePower Solar, and Intelligent PV. These products offer control and storage solutions tailored to the specific needs of private households and enable intelligent energy management solutions that will help to optimise the efficient and economic operation of electrical devices in the future.

17 17 Storage One of the biggest challenges facing energy development is matching power generation to consumption. The growth of power generation from intermittent renewables is the reason for power storage s growth in importance beyond its traditional arbitrage and load balancing applications. At least in many European visions for the future, renewable sources of energy from the sun, wind and water will determine how much electricity is produced, and it will be up to storage systems to support this development. The inherent intermittency of renewable sources of energy has had a distinct impact on the operation of energy systems. For example, if there is little wind energy being fed into the grid then conventional power plants must make extra electricity available. Conversely, these conventional plants must throttle back their output or even shut down if strong winds are generating a lot of electricity. Additionally, it must be noted that the current capacity of some existing grids is fully met when windmills are spinning at capacity. Because of this, the presence of electric batteries, storage heaters, or power-to-gas units are of particular value at times of high, intermittent renewable energy sources feeding electricity into the grid. Technically speaking, pumped-storage or compressed-air energy storage plants are extremely well suited, centralized solutions to counteract these problems with the lowest social and economic costs possible. They can store excess energy even in large amounts to supply electricity at peak-load times. In Germany, new pumped-storage power plants can only be erected in limited numbers so RWE is analyzing further storage technologies, for example, a new form of compressed-air energy storage. The technical feasibility of an adiabatic compressed air energy storage system has recently been proven by RWE. The project, ADELE-ING, just made this technology as affordable at an investment level as pumped hydro. A second focus of RWE s development in power storage is residential storage. This is in response to the trend of more and more private households now producing their own electricity. RWE is closely following this energy transition in the home and is developing innovative solutions to meet this development. Intelligent systems for the decentralized storage of solar power like RWE s HomePower Solar product play an important role in this context. This is particularly important because lithium ion batteries, currently the leading battery technology, seem to be at the brink of a significant price drop in the near future. This sharp price drop in storage is the key for

18 18 the continued success of home power generation. This is because peak power production occurs during the day, whereas peak consumption happens during the morning and evening. As a result, only a small portion of solar power generated at home can actually be used for private consumption, requiring customers to buy additional power from the grid even if they are producing large amounts at home. Matching this in-house generation and consumption with storage through innovative solutions is the overall goal of RWE s product, HomePower Solar.

19 19 E-mobility With the first electric car built in 1900, the 19th century can be considered the birth of the electric car. However, further development of this technology in the auto industry was stymied by the internal combustion engine, and as such, the only major developments occurred in the rail industry. Due to continued, volatile crises in the Middle East as well as rising fuel prices, an alternative solution had to be found to replace fuel burning vehicles. Purely electric vehicle technology struggled to find solutions for the short range and heavy energy storage units contained in totally electric automobiles. In response, hybrid gas-electric vehicles were developed as an alternative. Thanks to large investments in R&D and the subsequent technological race between competing firms, almost all major barriers have since then been removed. What has changed? Charging times are decreasing. For example, a few years ago it took 8 to 10 hours to fully charge a Tesla. Now, you can charge one in 30 minutes. Higher capacity and smaller batteries. This helps to increase the driving range and improve the overall performance of the car. A growing charging network. Currently, the RWE network consists of 3200 charging points in Europe and the number is steadily rising. RWE runs the largest network of charging points in Germany, and it is fair to say that RWE was a pioneer of electric transport in Poland, when, in 2009 it started to build the first network of charging stations in Warsaw. The price of an electric car is decreasing. In Poland you can now purchase a new hybrid vehicle for around PLN. Soon, the price of a fully electric car is anticipated to drop below PLN. Hybrid urban buses are more popular and electric coaches are starting to enter public transportation fleets. A leader of urban buses is Solaris, a Polish company that developed its own electric coach.

20 20 In 2013, Europeans recharged their vehicles with an energy equivalent to 8 million emission-free kilometers at RWE charging stations twice as much as in Hybrid and electric cars will continue to become cheaper and more accessible, and the number of such vehicles will also increase in public transport as the technology further develops and new solutions are implemented in the logistics industry. In our study it is anticipated that significant growth of electric cars on Polish roads will begin in RWE is currently working on 11 different research and development projects in the EU and US related to the further development of e-mobility.

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22 22 CLOSING REMARKS We hope that you found Technology scenarios for the Polish energy market through 2050 to be worthwhile. Our desire was to explore the potential that these game-changing technologies could have on the future of Poland s energy mix and ultimately, its citizens. There will be fundamental changes occurring in our business due to the continued development of technology and its further integration into not just the energy sector but across the energy consumer market. RWE will remain a committed partner to this development and the market in Poland, which continues sustainable development and growth in the technologies that will lead to a better, brighter future.

23 23 TECHNOLOGIES IN BRIEF Wind As wind turbines become more efficient, the production of electricity through wind power will become more practical and cost effective. Furthermore, continued developments in the installation and construction of windmills, both onshore and offshore, will make the process faster, quieter, and easier on the environment. Photovoltaics Like most renewable technologies, there will be further reductions in the cost of solar panels and their installation. However, it is the introduction of technologies tailored to prosumers, like RWE s Smart Home, HomePower, and Intelligent PV that will make the impact of greater photovoltaics use profound. By empowering individuals that were previously only consumers into becoming contributing members of Poland s energy mix, the country can realize tangible and lasting results. E-mobility What began as an expensive fringe of the auto industry, purely electric vehicles are poised to redefine the auto industry as well as power consumption. The use of conventional internal combustion engines and all the associated negative effects that hydrocarbons have on the environment will see a decreasing market share year after year as electric vehicles become cheaper and charging stations become more widespread. Storage Advanced technologies for production of power from renewable sources of energy will remain moderate until cheaper and scalable storage solutions for power become widely available. Distributed storage and advanced energy storage systems are moving from a strictly academic exercise to solutions with real, legitimate potential.

24 24 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The aim of the study is to indicate the technologies that are most likely to develop and influence the Polish sector significantly till 2050, irrespective of the specific development scenario the energy industry takes. Given the broad international experience and knowhow of RWE Group, it was also meant as the company s contribution to the ongoing debate on the future of Poland s national energy system as this debate has been facing great challenges for some time now. This study seeks to provide information on technologies that will have an impact on such topics as growing electricity demand and the necessity of fundamental investments. The study was prepared on the basis of professional strategic planning models, in cooperation with external experts on the Polish market and with the use of public opinion research. It involved experts from various areas of RWE, such as Strategy, Research & Development, Energy Policy, Business Development, Thermal Generation, Grid, Smart Metering and E-Mobility. The study refers to four long-term scenarios, which are: Muddling Through, Polish National Way, Green and Innovative and analyzes them thoroughly. As a result of the study, a timeline reflecting the development of different energy generation technologies within each scenario is established demonstrating the potential of development of certain solutions on the Polish market. The correlation between the scenarios and numerous technologies is examined against factors such as energy security, CO 2 emission reduction, the price of energy and grid impact.

25 25 DISCLAIMER RWE Polska S.A. hereby informs and states that the data contained in this document does not constitute any kind of recommendation for action. The published document is only an estimate and the data included herein does not replace any detailed problem analysis or professional assessment. The data is based upon the forecast of RWE Polska S.A. and serves to provide general information. The document includes the opinions of RWE Polska S.A. as of the day it was written. The document has been prepared with due care and attention observing the principles of methodological correctness on the basis of generally available information recognized as credible by RWE Polska S.A. However, RWE Polska S.A., does not guarantee the completeness or accuracy of the data. RWE Polska S.A. will not be held liable for any decisions or action made on the basis of this document nor for any damages incurred as a result of such decisions. The entire risk resulting from the use of the information provided is borne by the user the recipient of the document, Technology scenarios for the Polish energy market through Any and all rights of the document, Technology scenarios for the Polish energy market through 2050 are reserved. The user of the website, service user is entitled to download and print entire pages or any parts thereof under the condition that this does not infringe copyright and rights arising from the trademarks registered by RWE Polska S.A. No part of this document may be copied in whole, or in part, transmitted electronically or otherwise modified, linked or used for commercial purposes without the previous written consent of RWE Polska S.A.

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