Kamel Ben Naceur Director, Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology The impact of INDCs on the energy sector IEA Day, 3 rd December 2015
Climate pledges for COP21 the energy context Energy production and use accounts for at least two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions But what do the INDCs say about energy? All cover energy-related emissions, but the role of the energy sector vis-à-vis non-energy emissions is not always clear Around half include explicit energy-focused targets, but the nature of these targets can vary significantly Around 40% refer to greater renewables deployment and 30% to improved energy efficiency Perhaps the most important thing
the global coverage of climate pledges is impressive Russia and Caspian Europe North America 2.0 Gt China 3.8 Gt Middle East 6.1 Gt Africa 2.0 Gt India 8.6 Gt Other Asia OECD Asia Oceania South America 1.1 Gt 1.9 Gt 1.7 Gt 2.2 Gt 1.2 Gt Pledges submitted Pledges from countries that account for 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions; their full implementation would be consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 C The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
Energy sector starts to go its own way Growth in the global economy, primary energy demand and related CO2 emissions Index (1995 = 100) 200 175 150 125 GDP Primary energy demand Energy-related CO2 emissions GDP Primary energy demand Energy-related CO2 emissions 100 75 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2020 2025 2030 Growth in energy demand and emissions has tracked economic growth closely but decouples over time, with emissions growth slowing to a crawl by 2030
Largest source of emissions makes the cleanest break with the past World electricity generation and related CO 2 emissions Generation (thousand TWh) 40 30 20 10 Electricity generation CO 2 emissions Electricity generation CO 2 emissions 20 15 10 5 Emissions (Gt) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Electricity demand grows by about 40% to 2030, but increasing share of low-carbon generation means that power sector emissions remain flat
The shift to lower carbon energy is clear Mtoe 1 500 1 250 1 000 750 Growth in primary energy demand by fuel Renewables Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal 500 250-250 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 One quarter of the world s total energy supply is low-carbon in 2030; natural gas is the only fossil-fuel that increases its share of the global energy mix 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030
Emissions burden continues to move over time Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region Gt CO2 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Bunkers Other Africa Middle East Russia / Caspian Other Asia India China Europe North America Countries accounting for more than half of global economic activity see their energy-related GHG emissions plateau or be in decline by 2030
Climate pledges need major investment Cumulative energy investment, 2015-2030 Low-carbon power generation $4.9 trillion Other Bioenergy 5% 6% End-use energy efficiency $5.2 trillion Industry 8% Nuclear 19% Hydro 21% Wind 28% Solar PV 21% Buildings 42% Transport 50% Climate pledges require the energy sector to invest trillions in energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies; a major scale-up of energy RD&D is also needed
IEA Ministers issue statement on energy and climate change IEA s 29 member countries issue a collective statement stating that they: Welcome INDCs and endorse IEA view that INDCs should be a first step upon which to build ever-increasing ambition. Welcome the IEA s five key opportunities to reduce energy sector emissions: 1. Increasing energy efficiency in industry, buildings and transport 2. Phasing out the use of least efficient coal fired power plants 3. Increasing investment in renewables, including hydro 4. Gradual phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies 5. Reducing methane emissions from oil and gas production Call on the IEA to: advise how to enhance the environmental sustainability of the energy sector (including the reduction of local pollution), expand tracking of the energy sector transformation and increase international collaboration.
IEA Day: Analysis for COP21 and beyond 10:45-12:30 Five key actions to peak global energy emissions, led by energy efficiency and renewables 12:45-14:15 Accelerating energy technology innovation to make decarbonisation cheaper and easier 14:30-16:00 Using the Paris agreement to drive short-term actions consistent with long-term emission goals 16:15-17:45 Enhancing energy security by making the energy system more resilient to climate change impacts 18:00-19:00 Networking reception
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