SEMI Market Update
Outline Semiconductor Industry Outlook Semiconductor Forecast Equipment Forecast Material Forecast Regional Highlights Europe Japan China Southeast Asia (SEA) Summary
Industry Outlook
Semiconductor Cycles 298 300 292 306 325 336 351 359 256 249 226
Regional Equipment Markets- Fab, Packaging, Test, and Other Equipment 2014F 2015F % Region $B $B Change Europe 2.49 3.68 48% China 4.98 5.06 2% North America 7.15 7.33 3% South Korea 6.94 7.98 15% SEA 1.66 2.05 23% Japan 3.65 4.22 16% Taiwan 11.57 12.27 6% Total Regions 38.44 42.59 11% Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI
Fab Equipment Spending- Driven by Foundry and Memory
Global Silicon Wafer Diameter Trends Millions of Square Inches 75 mm 100 mm 125 mm 150 mm 200 mm 300 mm Includes polished and epi wafers. Excludes reclaim, non polished, and SOI. Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2011; SEMI January 2014
Total Regional Materials Markets 2014F = $44.7 Billion Totals may not add due to rounding Source: SEMI Materials Market Data Subscription August 2014
Regional Highlights
Europe Market Summary Installed Fab Capacity Packaging & Test Semiconductor Materials 2015 Outlook 1.8 million 200mm equiv./month SEMI is tracking 200 front-end facilities in Europe/MidEast Region >60 production facilities*; including focus on wafer bumping, WLP, and 3D packaging ~$3.2 billion Semiconductor Equipment Approaching $3.6 billion in 2015 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, WWSEMS, & MMDS; *- Yole Developpement
Europe Manufacturing Intel Ireland & Israel Lexlip: upgrade and capacity expansion of Fab 24 for 14nm Kiryat Gat: conversion to 300mm; potential $1B+ Equipment spend in 2015 ST Micro Crolles 2: some 28/32nm production ramp, and start of 14nm FDSOI GlobalFoundries 28nm upgrades to Fab 1 at Dresden. Infineon 300mm power semiconductor investments at Villach and Dresden. IMEC 300mm fab extension Process modules with 450mm capability
Japan Market Summary Installed Fab Capacity Packaging & Test 2015 Outlook Restructuring is on-going, though ~4.0 million 200mm equiv. wafers/month ~21% of global capacity Focus on advanced packaging Semiconductor Materials ~$7.5 billion Semiconductor Equipment $4.2 billion in 2015 Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, WWSEMS, & MMDS
Japan Manufacturing Consolidation/fab-lite trend continues Amkor increased ownership stake in J-Devices TowerJazz acquired three Panasonic fabs in Japan Fujitsu s chip production JV with UMC. Fab activities Flash Alliance (Toshiba/SanDisk) to further expand and upgrade Fab 5; construction on Fab 6 Micron-Elpida technology upgrade On-going SONY investments (300mm) in CMOS Image Sensors Japan headquartered material suppliers have >50% share of global semiconductor market Equipment makers in Japan have estimated ~35% share of the global market
China Market Key Facts Installed Fab Capacity Packaging & Test 2015 Outlook ~2.5 million 200mm wafers/month ~13% of global capacity >$10 billion in revenues Strong presence by overseas companies Semiconductor Materials Semiconductor Equipment SMIC/JCET announced JV for 12 wafer bumping ~$6.1 billion $4 billion to $5 billion range Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, WWSEMS, & MMDS
China Manufacturing Overseas semiconductor companies Samsung beginning capacity ramp of NAND fab in Xian; SK Hynix ongoing technology spending at Wuxi fab Domestic semiconductor companies SMIC s key project is the new Beijing fab; capex at >$700M Foundries adding 200mm capacity Packaging in China Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology (JCET) and SMIC announced JV for 12 wafer bumping to strengthen China supply chain for 12 and 28 nm technologies Domestic suppliers Providing chemicals, CMP slurries, packaging substrates, bonding wire, leadframes, and others. Equipment includes tools for wafer bumping & TSV, test and assembly.
Southeast Asia Market Key Facts Installed Fab Capacity Packaging & Test Semiconductor Materials Semiconductor Equipment 2015 Outlook ~1.3 million 200mm equiv. wafers/month Strong presence of subcon and IDM facilities in the region (including 20 assembly & test operations in Singapore) ~$7.1 billion ~$2.0 billion range Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, WWSEMS, & MMDS
Southeast Asia Manufacturers Foundries Globalfoundries is converting Fab 6 to 300mm and some expansion at Fab 7. UMC is expanding 40nm process capability at Fab 12i. Memories The post Micron-Elpida merger integration has transformed Singapore fabs into NAND flash-centric production site within Micron. Expect to see 3D NAND investment in latter part of 2015. LED Philips Lumileds and Osram are expanding chip and packaging capacity. Packaging Amkor acquired Toshiba Electronics Malaysia (packaging) UTAC to acquire Panasonic assembly plants in Southeast Asia
Summary Overall Outlook - Mid to high single-digit revenue growth for semiconductors for 2014 and into 2015 - Mobility, wireless, and connectivity remain the growth engines especially for leading edge investments and advanced packaging. Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Market - Expect a recovery in equipment spending this year and next following two years of spending decline. - Low single-digit growth for materials (downward pricing pressures abundant)