MARKET ANALYSIS AND KEY TRENDS FROM FD SOI PERSPECTIVE (SEPTEMBER 22, 2014)

Transcription

1 MARKET ANALYSIS AND KEY TRENDS FROM FD SOI PERSPECTIVE (SEPTEMBER 22, 2014) INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. 632 Industrial Way Los Gatos CA USA (fax)

2 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES () Interfaces with many global electronics leaders and customers worldwide on advanced technology Involved in market and competitive analysis for smartphones and other high volume platforms Also active in automotive, energy management, and other applications Involved in number of due diligence projects for IPOs Expertise in China Latest book is called China s Globalization: How China Becomes No. 1 ( Earlier book was Chinamerica and published by McGraw-Hill Forbes blog contributor, China Daily articles, EETimes editorials, Global Times editorials, etc For more information, visit I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 2

3 Semiconductor market is in growth mode (5.4% in 2014 and 6.2% in 2015) Multimedia mobile platforms represent key driver for low power and medium performance semiconductor products Demand in China is growing rapidly, with 90% of semiconductors being supplied by foreign companies Goal for Chinese semiconductor companies is to supply 40% of semiconductors consumed in China in 2020 Represents major opportunity for Chinese fabless, IDM, and foundry vendors Internet of Things (IoT) market is emerging with need for very low power consumption Advantages if battery lifetime is one year Need low power and low cost technology INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES FinFETs are high cost with major challenges in design Delays by Intel of 15 months (Q4/2013 to Q1/2015) in ramping 14nm Tri-Gate products are indicative of problems faced by foundry-fabless ecosystem FD SOI REPRESENTS EXCELLENT TECHNOLOGY THAT BRIDGES 28nm BULK CMOS AND FINFETS I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 3

4 Semiconducotr Market SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET BY PRODUCT $450B $300B $150B MPU MCU DSP Standard Cell ASIC FPGA Special-Purpose Logic General-Purpose Logic Display Driver Analog MOS Memory Other Semiconductor $0B I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 4

5 Semiconductor Market SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET BY GEOGRAPHY $500B $444B $413B $400B $383B $387B $300B $303B $298B $290B $299B $315B $335B $358B North America Japan Europe $200B China ROW $100B $0B CHINA REPRESENTS LARGEST CONSUMPTION VALUE I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 5

6 Chinese Semiconductor Consumption CHINESE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION $280B $262B $239B $210B TOTAL SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION IN CHINA $177B $194B $213B $218B $140B $128B $132B $136B $145B $161B Supply from Foreign Semiconductor Companies 2020 Goal of Chinese Government for Supply from Chinese Semiconductor Companies $70B $0B 4.5% 6.1% 7.2% 8.2% 8.9% 9.6% 10.4% 11.2% 13.0% 14.0% 15.0% Supply from Chinese Semiconductor Companies TARGETING 40% OF CHINA S SUPPLY IN 2020 IS APPROPRIATE I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 6

7 Number of Smartphones (MU) SMARTPHONE MARKET 2,000 1,742 1,649 1,549 1,500 1, ,105 1, , , Non-China ,095 1, China HIGH GROWTH FOR CHINESE COMPANIES I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 7

8 Number of Tablets (MU) 600 TABLET COMPUTER MARKET Non-China China CHINESE COMPANIES HAVE HIGH GROWTH I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 8

9 Foundry Market $70B FOUNDRY MARKET BY FEATURE DIMENSION $60B $50B $40B >0.35µm 0.35µm 0.25µm 0.18/0.15µm 0.13µm 90nm $30B 65nm 45/40nm 32/28nm $20B $10B 22/20nm 16/14nm 10nm $0B /14nm WILL NOT RAMP UNTIL Q4/2016 OR Q1/2017 I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 9

10 28nm CONSUMPTION BY APPLICATION MULTIPLE VERSIONS OF 28nm AND SHRINK WILL BE REQUIRED (%) 2015 to to to 2020 Application processor and modem (China centric) Consumer (DTV, OTT set-top box, etc) (China centric) ISP Microcontroller FPGA ASIC RF Mixed-signal Image sensor TOTAL Note: 28nm and derivatives as well as all technology variants, including bulk CMOS HKMG and SiON. I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 10

11 28nm Wafer Volume (KU) 28nm WAFER VOLUME 5,000 4,000 3,434 3,880 4,297 4,304 4,204 4,164 4,058 3,876 3,710 3,505 3,000 2,912 2,145 2,000 1, nm WILL BE LONG LIFETIME TECHNOLOGY NODE I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 11

12 FD SOI MARKET POTENTIAL nm Wafer value ($M) ,733 Product value ($M) ,461 16/14nm Wafer value ($M) ,249 3,894 5,129 Product value ($M) ,339 5,802 10,280 13,848 22/20nm Wafer value ($M) 486 1,563 2,553 3,625 4,480 4,993 Product value ($M) 1,074 3,517 5,846 8,446 10,618 12,033 32/28nm ($M) Wafer value ($M) 831 1,952 2,897 4,652 5,107 5,873 Product value ($M) 1,803 4,333 6,576 10,746 12,053 14,036 TOTAL Wafer value ($M) 1,317 3,669 6,378 10,526 13,767 18,728 Growth rate (%) NA Product value ($M) 2,877 8,231 14,761 24,995 33,714 47,379 Growth rate (%) NA FD SOI MARKET HAS GOOD GROWTH POTENTIAL I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 12

13 IOT AS OPPORTUNITY FOR FD SOI Many things are connected with intelligence in analyzing data that is collected IoT can be considered as extension of person or machine and can be productivity tool IOT IS HIGH GROWTH OPPORTUNITY FOR SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY Advantageous for IoT devices to have operating lifetime of weeks, months, or years without recharging Concept of charging every night is not practical for IoT What is displayed is limited by size Limits adoption of many wearable devices such as watches Need interfaces to be universal plug and play Voice command is key opportunity for IoT, but with need for high processing power Migration to smaller feature dimensions is major advantage for IoT, but cost and power consumption need to be low I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 13

14 IOT BUILDING BLOCK FUNCTIONS Application Software Wireless Connectivity (Bluetooth) Low Power MCU (Cortex-M0, -M3, and -M4) Embedded Nonvolatile Memory Analog Interfaces PMU Sensors I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 14

15 IOT BUILDING BLOCK FUNCTIONS (CONTINUED) Key processor core is ARM family Other options are Intel Edison, Andes Technology, MIPS, Modivius, Tensilica, etc Critical need is low power as well as performance scalability FD SOI is ideal technology option Key support capability is embedded nonvolatile memory Bluetooth Smart and Bluetooth mesh network are strong contenders for connectivity ZigBee continues to have demand from smart meters and light dimming such as Home Depot (Wink hub) and Lowe s (Iris hub) Sensor technology is critical with major strengths in Europe such as STMicroelectronics, Leti, Bosch, and others Important to build leadership sensor capabilities in China HIGH VALUE TO OPTIMIZE COST, POWER CONSUMPTION, PERFORMANCE, AND FUNCTIONALITY AT 28nm I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 15

16 IOT REVENUE SEGMENTATION IN 2020 Services (63% of Revenues) Devices (26%) Semiconductors (9%) Sensors (2%) SEMICONDUCTORS CAN GENERATE HIGH VALUE LEVERAGE I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 16

17 Very large market potential, but highly fragmented No company has developed device that will sell 1B units IoT is collecting data, but with uncertainty regarding: Which data is important? What is done with these data? Who has access to these data? Will these data be stored or are they perishable? In early stage of conception, but market potential is very large China will be large market, but with need for competitive advantages in hardware and software One key capability for participation in market is development and installation of reference designs or development platforms Important to build strong ecosystem NEED TO BE INNOVATIVE IN ANTICIPATING IMPACT OF IOT CHARACTERISTICS OF IOT I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 17

18 Client IoT CLIENT IOT MARKET $90B $82.7B $68.8B $60B $57.5B $48.2B Software $40.4B $33.9B $30B $19.7B $23.7B $28.4B Semiconductor Hardware Analog Processor Connectivity Sensors Memory $0B HIGH GROWTH IS PROJECTED I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 18

19 IoT Semiconductor Hardware IOT SEMICONDUCTOR HARDWARE MARKET $32B $29.3B $26.1B Other $24B $23.2B Home $20.5B $16B $13.6B $15.7B $18.0B Logistics $11.7B Medical $9.8B $8B Consumer $0B I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 19

20 WEARABLE DEVICE EXAMPLES Company Device Connectivity OS/platform Samsung Gear S Bluetooth 4.1 Wi-Fi Samsung Simband Bluetooth Wi-Fi Apple Apple Watch b/g Bluetooth 4.0 Tizen and will be available October 2014 Intended for use with Samsung Architecture for Multimodal Interactions (SAMI) ios and extension of iphone Will be available mid-2015 Fitbit Flex Bluetooth 4.0 Compatible with Android, ios, Mac OS, and Windows GoPro Hero3+ Wi-Fi Compatible with Mac OS and Windows GoPro app enables preview and playback on smartphones and tablets Google Glass b/g Bluetooth Compatible with Android and ios InteraXon Muse headband Bluetooth Compatible with Android 2.3+, ios, Mac OS, Windows 7 and 8, and Ubuntu Linux LTS I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 20

21 WAFER COST COMPARISON ($) Q4/2015 Q4/2016 Q4/ nm bulk CMOS 2, , , nm FD SOI 2, , , nm bulk CMOS 3, , , /14nm FinFET 4, , , nm FD SOI 3, , , FD SOI WAFERS ARE COST COMPETITIVE AT 28nm AND 14nm I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 21

22 COST PER 100M GATES ($) Q4/2015 Q4/2016 Q4/ nm bulk CMOS nm FD SOI nm bulk CMOS /14nm FinFET LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GATE COST FOR FD SOI AND FINFETS IN Q4/2017 I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 22

23 LIFETIME OF WAFER FABS Number of years Planar (28nm) Digital Mixed-signal (digital-centric) RF Mixed-signal (analog-centric) Embedded nonvolatile memory* Image sensors Other FinFET (16/14nm) Digital 16/14nm Digital 10nm Note: * Includes automotive. FINFET FABS HAVE SHORT LIFETIME I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 23

24 PROCESS COMPARISONS FOR IOT (10 high) FinFET Bulk CMOS FD SOI Low power consumption 7* 3 8 Cost competitiveness Ease of design Breadth of IP 4** 6 5 Supply chain 4*** 7 5 TOTAL Note: * With very tall narrow fins. ** Fragmented 16nm FinFET, 16FF+, 16nm FinFET turbo, and 14nm. *** Short fab lifetime. FD SOI IS BEST OPTION BECAUSE OF LOW POWER AND LOW COST I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 24

25 Participation Cost DESIGN COST PENALTIES WITH FINFETS $240M $212.7M DFM $180M Physical Implementation $120M $101.7M Verification $60M $56.0M Architecture IP Qualification $0M 28nm Planar CMOS 20nm Planar CMOS 16/14nm FinFET COST PREMIUMS IN IMPLEMENTING FINFET DESIGNS I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 25

26 COST METRICS FOR 16/14nm, 10nm, 7nm, AND 5nm WAFER FABS (300mm) 16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm Tooling cost per 10K WPM ($M) 1, , , , Depreciation cost per wafer ($)* 2, , , , Depreciation as percent of wafer cost (%) Wafer cost ($) 4, , , , Wafer price, 50% gross profit margin ($) 9, , , , Note: * Five-year depreciation. TOOLING COST FOR 40K WPM AT 5nm WILL BE $16.3B I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 26

27 Wafer Price WAFER PRICES WITH 50% GROSS PROFIT MARGIN $21,000 $19, $14, $14,000 $11, $9, $7,000 $0 16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm LARGE INCREASE IN WAFER PRICES NEEDS GROWTH IN REVENUES PER UNIT AREA I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 27

28 REQUIREMENT FOR PRODUCT LIFECYCLE REVENUES 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm IC design cost ($M) ,347.5 Growth rate (%) NA Percent total (%) Yield ramp-up cost ($M) Growth rate (%) NA Percent total (%) TOTAL ($M) ,243.4 Growth rate (%) NA Revenue requirement* ($M) , , , ,825.5 Note: * At 7.5X cost. PRODUCT LIFECYCLE REVENUES FOR 5nm WILL BE $16.8B I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 28

29 Revenue Requirement PRODUCT REVENUES BASED ON 7.5X DESIGN AND YIELD RAMP-UP COSTS $18,000M $16,825.5M $12,000M $6,000M $6,562.5M $2,799.8M $0M $1,313.9M $425.1M $679.3M 28nm 20nm 16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm SMALL NUMBER OF PRODUCTS CAN REACH $16.8B REVENUES I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 29

30 Revenues, 40K WPM $10B REVENUES PER WAFER WITH REDUCTION IN FEATURE DIMENSIONS $9.4B $7.1B $5.7B $5B $4.7B $0B 16/14nm 10nm 7nm 5nm NEED TO BUILD APPLICATION BASE BEFORE BUILDING MANUFACTURING BASE I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 30

31 FinFETs are promoted because many companies have tried to follow Intel s roadmap Intel has experienced delays and spends $3B per year on process technology development TSMC made some major strategic errors with its 16nm FinFET technology Recovery strategy for TSMC is to try to accelerate 10nm FinFETs However, for 28nm, TSMC is at 150K WPM and will be at 180K WPM in 2015 TSMC s 20nm has relaxed design rules Number of mask levels (10-layer metal) for FinFETs is 60 compared to 48 for FD SOI (approximately) Difference in gate cost is more than 20% Semiconductor industry has 50 years of experience with planar structures 3-D structures are new, and their reliability factors still need to be proven Need to be methodical in ramping new technologies 28nm FD SOI is becoming proven technology 14nm FD SOI has high potential Can probably scale to 10nm TECHNOLOGY SUMMARY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS ARE CLEAR FOR FD SOI I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 31

32 Key drivers for mainstream semiconductor business are low cost and low power Bulk CMOS is higher power than FD SOI FinFETs are higher cost than FD SOI Supply chain needs to be built for FD SOI with migration to 14nm and 10nm Intel s manufacturing-related strategies are excellent However, company is operating with different financial metrics TSMC s performance at 28nm is excellent Relaxed technology at 20nm is clever New strategies of TSMC at 10nm will require wide range of technology and business strategies to be addressed By being ahead of other foundry vendors, TSMC builds up its IP and design enablement ecosystem China needs to be innovative in its business strategies with astute use of process technology Focusing on 16/14nm FinFETs can result in large losses Best option is FD SOI CONCLUSION OF STRATEGIC ISSUES KEY ISSUES ARE HOW TO IMPLEMENT AND BUILD UP STRONG PRODUCT PORTFOLIO I9-FDSOIFORUM SLIDE 32