Energy Strategy 2050: concept, status and next steps Dr. Walter Steinmann, Director
Energy Strategy 2050: objectives Supply security Technical security Environmental compatibility Economic viability 2
World Energy Outlook 3
The challenges Population growth: Energy for more and more people Infrastructure: Power plants and networks are decades old and need to be replaced and expanded, regardless of the new energy strategy Supply security: Switzerland s integration into international cooperation mechanisms helps secure the supply of electricity, gas and oil Pricing and market: Tendency towards higher energy prices, securing free supplier choice, maintaining international competitiveness of Swiss companies Climate change: CO 2 emissions i under control, climate change impact on domestic energy production (hydropower) after 2050 Environment, nature, landscape Plus a new challenge: Post-Fukushima. shima This all has to be achieved while Switzerland simultaneously withdraws from nuclear energy on a step-by-step basis! 4
Basic principles Federal government specifies framework conditions in accordance with Article 89 of the Federal Constitution. Energy industry is responsible for energy supply security (Energy Act, Article 4, paragraph 2). On 25.5.2011, Federal Council announces decision to withdraw from nuclear energy. Parliament adopts this resolution. SFOE is mandated to develop a new energy strategy. 5
Energy Strategy 2050 (1/2) 1. Enhance energy efficiency 2. Develop renewable energy production Hydropower: + 3.2 TWh (+ pump storage for integration of new renewable energies) New renewable energy: Unlocking sustainable potentials (24.2 TWh) 3. Meet residual demand through: Electricity production with fossil fuels (combined heat and power, gas and steam turbines) Electricity Imports 6
Energy Strategy 2050 (2/2) 4. Electricity Networks Expansion and Renovation Renovation of distribution grid in direction of smart grids 5. Strenghtening energy research 6. Confederation sets the example 7. Encouraging international cooperation in the field of energy 7
New energy mix in the package of measures PJ TWh Hydrogen 900 250 Biogas as fuel 800 700 600 500 200 150 Gas as fuel Liquid biofuels Aviation fuels Diesel Petrol Biogas, sewage gas Ambient heat 400 Solar heat 100 (Industrial) Waste 300 Wood District heat* 200 50 Coal 100 Gas (c) Prognos AG 2012 Other oil products 0 1960 1970 2000 2010 2020 2035 2050 0 Heating oil products or fuels Electricity* 8
Composition of electricity supply based on measures package is realistic TWh 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Electricity supply scenario, political measures, variant C&E (c) Prognos 2012 20 bestehende Wasserkraftwerke neue Wasserkraftwerke bestehende Kernkraftwerke bestehende fossile KW bestehende Bezugsrechte bestehende Erneuerbare* 10 neue fossile WKK neue Erneuerbare* neue Kombikraftwerke neue Kernkraftwerke neue Importe Bruttonachfrage 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 *) gekoppelt und ungekoppelt Hydrologisches Jahr Quelle: Prog gnos 2012 9
Long-term approach to electricity production from new renewable energy sources 25 TWh 20 15 10 5 (c) Prognos AG 2012 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Waste incineration plants (50% elec. prod.) Sewage treatment plants Landfill gas Biomass (wood gas) Biomass (wood) Biogas Photovoltaics Wind energy Geothermal energy 10
Energy Strategy 2050: next steps Variant Ecological tax reform From 2020 Energy levy; phase out of promotion programmes (from a subsidy to an incentive tax system) Now Measures package I Efficiency Renewable energy Fossil fuels / imports etc. Networks Research 11
Swiss coordinated energy research action plan: promotion in four main directions 1. Increase in capacity for energy research (32 teams by 2016) 2. Development of competence centres Efficiency technologies Energy systems, networks and electricity transmission Energy storage Electricity yp production (primarily renewable energy) Socioeconomic and legal aspects 3. Competitive financial support for research projects 4. Promotion activities of the SNF (NFP, NFS, promotion professorships) p 12
Swiss coordinated energy research action plan: socio-economic research National research programs: NRP 71: Options for Controlling Final Energy Consumption (NRP 70: Transforming energy - socio economic aspects of supply ) Swiss Competence Centers for Energy Research (SCCER) Socio-economic and legal aspects with main research topics: Regulatory issues and market conditions; Analyses of individual and group behaviour and general trends Sufficiency incentive systems 13
Socio-economic research at the SFOE www.ewg-bfe.ch Socio-economic research program: Energy-Economy-Society Economy (EWG) -> Interdisciplinary research with a focus on policy relevance Close linkages with: Energy industry Political processes Public administrations Academics Research project funding: from applied projects to academic research National and international coordination of research activities Individual project management and communication Large number of completed projects 14
Socio-economic research insights are needed Energy markets are evolving new markets emerge new agents enter markets Long term investments are needed The energy transition is not possible without behavioural change Cost-efficient and reliable policy instruments are needed Applied research insights are needed for the design of energy policy instruments 15
Energy Strategy 2050: current timetable Energy Strategy 2050: Measures package I 2012 2013 2014 2015 F F C F Parliament Opt. ref. In effect Parl. init. 12.400 (higher feed-in rem. fee, relief for large consumers) 2012 2013 2014 2015 Parlia- C F ment Opt. ref. In effect Swiss coordinated energy research action plan 2012 2013 2014 2015 F Parliament In effect Detailed concept for electricity networks strategy 2012 2013 2014 2015 F F From spring 2013: implementation & adaptation of legislation Key: F = Federal Council; C = Consultation; Opt. ref. = optional referendum 16
This concept is feasible! We welcome feedback and constructive debate 17