The Graduate Labour Market in 2016 Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects
A more favourable graduate jobs market
Last year s graduates after six months Unemployed, 6.3% Other, 4.9% Studying, 12.1% Working and studying, 5.5% In work, 71.2% ata comes from HESA Destination of Leavers of Higher Education 2013/14
What do graduates do? 353,725 first degrees awarded to UK domiciled graduates last year. The majority were working after six months 76.7% Unemployment was at 6.3% - a level usually associated with non-recessionary graduate labour markets. 57% of UK-domiciled graduates were women, 90% studied full time, 78% were no older than 24 on graduation, and 19.5% were from a minority ethnic background.
Where are we now? Broadly positive employment outlook in 2016 But uncertainty about Euro referendum And continuing weakness in exports and manufacturing Skills shortage and recruitment difficulties set to increase And keep an eye on wages The ongoing urbanisation of graduate work
Broadly positive employment outlook in 2016
Business is reasonably confident
and expects to increase staffing Hiring intentions continue to improve But manufacturing more cautious Data from Bank Of England Agent s Summary Jan 201
Broadly positive employment outlook in 2016 Growth to continue, but likely to slow down Global forecasts being downgraded, not necessarily the UK Concerns over effect of EU vote Manufacturing outlook significantly less positive than services
Skills shortage and recruitment difficulties
Recruitment difficulties are widespread
And so are skills shortage vacancies
Wages Inflation is keeping a lid on wages ONS data suggests wage pressure for many professional qualifications is increasing. Skills shortages are also driving wage increases New cohort of graduates the first to pay 9,000 for full three years. May have effect on salary expectations
Graduate supply We expect to see fewer graduates this year as last year was boosted by take-up of HE to beat new fees Early data suggests 5% fall Predicted falls in most subject areas, especially Architecture and building Social sciences Business studies + marketing Creative arts and design
Graduate supply How many graduates are there (roughly)? Engineers, of all kinds about 11,150 IT and computing about 10,100 Business and management about 15,000 Design about 11,300 Accountancy and finance about 6,000 Marketing about 3,400 Building and architecture about 5,600 Languages about 4,450 All STEM about 71,000 Social sciences about 59,000 Arts and humanities about 62,000
Projected graduate number change in 2016-5195 -4665-4275 Creative arts & design -2355 Historical & philosophical studies -1685 Languages -1765 Mass communications & documentation Business & administrative studies -595 Law Social studies -1240 Architecture, building & planning -435 Engineering & technology -485 Computer science -295 Mathematical sciences -530 Physical sciences -250 Agriculture & related subjects Veterinary science -3155 Biological sciences Subjects allied to medicine Medicine & dentistry 180 235 1325-6000 -5000-4000 -3000-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000
Recruitment difficulties Set to become more significant in 2016 Already constraining growth in some sectors (eg construction) More shortages emerging More applicants will reject offers Fewer graduates predicted in 2016
Urbanisation of graduate employment
50000 Location of new graduate employment 2013/14 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 NE NW Yorks & Humbe r E Mids W Mids East London SE SW Wales Scotlan d N. Ireland Graduates 6765 22510 14770 11565 15080 14800 43685 24740 14615 7840 14090 5200 3230 2335 3030 Prof jobs 4510 14820 9815 7840 9955 9885 31665 16900 9455 4990 10090 3285 2265 1555 2465 Other UK Other EU Non- EU
Number of graduate jobs taken by 2013/14 graduates Around the country most popular locations of employment outside London for 2014 graduates 7000 6655 6000 5770 4915 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2780 2540 2385 2375 2355 2165 2125 2065
Outside London Over 40% of the working population in Newcastle, Manchester, York, Sheffield, Leeds, Bristol, Bath, Oxford, Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh Glasgow Cambridge Had a degree or equivalent at the end of 2014
Outside London By the end of 2015 Liverpool, Nottingham, Leicester, Birmingham, Coventry, Norwich, Ipswich Southampton Could also have joined the list
Data from Cities Outlook 2016 from The Centre for Cities
Urbanisation of graduate employment Graduate employment growth in all parts of the country Smaller urban and rural areas will have some roles and are expanding but could be hit by continuing public sector job losses. Graduate jobs market in urban areas (including London) growing more quickly and has wider range of options This trend set to continue as cities become more graduate Also drives local competition for graduates But cost of living becoming increasing factor
In summary The graduate jobs market improved significantly last year We should see more improvement, but the rate of improvement may be slowing May be fewer graduates this year Recruitment and retention issues are set to intensify Large urban areas are the growing graduate hotspots Many cities approaching 50% graduate workforce
Questions?
Dr Charlie Ball Head of HE Intelligence Graduate Prospects c.ball@prospects.ac.uk @hecsu @lmicharlie highpeakdata.wordpress.com hecsu.blogspot.com