The World's Energy Outlook Post COP21 Kamel Ben Naceur International Energy Agency, Paris Brussels, April 19 th, 2016
The start of a new energy era? 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016 Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China
USD billion Upstream oil capex cut for 2nd year 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 America N America S Europe Australia Middle East Russia Asia Africa Drop of 17% in 2016 follows 24% reduction in 2015
Medium-Term Oil Supply and Demand IEA-MTOMR Feb 2016
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Coal prices to remain under pressure Development of thermal coal prices $/t 250 Global financial crisis 200 New supply capacity meets slowing demand 150 100 50 CIF Prices in North West Europe (ARA) Global overcapacity & weaker than expected demand look set to put further downward pressure on coal prices through to 2020 Source: IEA Medium-Term Coal Market Report, 2015
The start of a new energy era? 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016 Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China Signals turned green ahead of key Paris climate summit 2014 emissions did not rise Renewable capacity additions at a record high of 130GW in 2014 Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014 Pledges of 187 countries account for 98% of energy-related emissions
Global energy emissions - peaked? Global energy-related CO2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 20 Second oil shock Dissolution of Soviet Union Global economic downturn 15 10 5 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 IEA analysis for 2015 shows renewables surge, led by wind, and improvements in energy efficiency were key to keeping emissions flat for a second year in a row
Annual additions (GW) Renewable electricity expanded at its fastest rate in 2014, despite a sharp fall in oil prices World net additions to renewable power capacity, historical and forecast (GW) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Ocean Geothermal STE Solar PV Offshore wind Onshore wind Bioenergy Hydropower Accelerated case The global expansion for renewable electricity remains robust and renewable power capacity rises by 40% over 2014-20. The outlook stems from greater cost-effective deployment of solar PV and onshore wind.
Revolution Now The Future Arrives for Five Clean Energy Technologies 2015 Update Ref: Sec. Moniz (2015)
The start of a new energy era? 2015 has seen lower prices for all fossil fuels Oil & gas could face second year of falling upstream investment in 2016 Coal prices remain at rock-bottom as demand slows in China Signals turned green ahead of key Paris climate summit 2014 emissions did not rise Renewable capacity additions at a record high of 130GW in 2014 Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014 Pledges of 187 countries account for 98% of energy-related emissions Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction?
Energy demand (Mtoe) GDP (trillion dollars, PPP) A new chapter in China s growth story Total primary energy demand and & GDP in in China 49 000 60 3 000 6 000 2 000 3 000 1 000 Energy demand GDP Renewables Nuclear GDP Gas Energy Oil demand Coal 40 20 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China s economy favouring expansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth
Changing dynamics of global demand Energy demand by region Mtoe 10 000 8 000 Rest of world 6 000 4 000 2 000 OECD Rest of world China OECD China 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa & Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth.
A new balancing item in the oil market? Change in production (2015-2020) of US tight oil for a range of 2020 oil prices mb/d 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4 $40/bbl $50/bbl $60/bbl $70/bbl $80/bbl $90/bbl $100/bbl Tight oil has created more short-term supply flexibility, but there is no guarantee that the adjustment mechanism in oil markets will be smooth
If oil prices stay lower for much longer: what would it take, what would it mean? Much more resilient non-opec supply & higher output from a stable Middle East could hold the oil price close to $50/bbl until the 2020s Oil importers gain, each $1/bbl reduction is $15 billion off import bills; major window of opportunity to press ahead with subsidy reform If lower prices persist for decades, reliance on Middle East oil gets back to 1970s levels; risk of a sharp market rebound if investment falls short Lower prices could undercut essential policy support for the energy transition: weaker incentives mean 15% of efficiency savings are lost Reduction in revenues to key producers & boost to global oil demand growth make a prolonged period of lower prices progressively less likely
India moving to the centre of the world energy stage Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040 1 500 Coal (Mtce) 24 Oil (mb/d) 1 500 Solar PV (TWh) 1 000 Africa Southeast Asia 16 Southeast Asia Africa Middle East 1 000 Japan Middle East Africa European Union United States 500 0-500 India European Union United States 8 0-8 China India United States European Union Japan 500 0 India China -1 000-16 New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India s development
Power is leading the transformation of the energy system Global electricity generation by source TWh 3 000 6 000 9 000 12 000 15 000 Renewables Coal Gas Nuclear Oil 2014 Change to 2040 Of which: Hydro Wind Solar Other renewables Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source
The demand outlook can be re-shaped by stronger climate policies Mtoe Global oil & gas demand by scenario 5 000 Oil 4 500 Gas 4 000 New Policies Scenario 3 500 3 000 Oil Gas 450 Scenario 2 500 2 000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Demand for all fossil fuels is curbed in a carbon-constrained world, although declines at existing fields continue to underpin a huge requirement for investment to 2040
Energy innovation is crucial to a sustainable energy transition Energy innovation has already yielded solutions, but needs support and guidance to deliver on its promises 18 09.22.2015
IEA messages to COP21 To shift the energy sector onto a low-carbon path that supports economic growth and energy access: 1. Take five key actions, led by energy efficiency and renewables, to peak then reduce global energy emissions. 2. Use the Paris Agreement to drive short-term actions consistent with long-term emission goals. 3. Accelerate energy technology innovation to make decarbonisation easier and even more affordable. 4. Enhance energy security by making the energy sector more resilient to climate change impacts.
1. Take five key actions, led by energy efficiency and renewables, to peak then reduce global energy emissions. Emissions savings in the Bridge Scenario by measure, 2030 Upstream methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidy reform 15% 10% 49% Energy efficiency Renewables investment 17% 9% Five measures save almost 5 Gt of emissions by 2030 & achieve a global emissions peak by 2020, without harming economic growth & using only proven technologies Reducing inefficient coal
The Bridge Strategy is flexible across regions GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030 European Union Russia United States Middle East China India Southeast Asia Efficiency Inefficient coal plants Renewables Methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidies Latin America Africa The measures in the Bridge Scenario apply flexibly across regions, with energy efficiency & renewables as key measures worldwide Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Energy and Climate Change (2015).
COP21 : Summary of outcomes
Beyond COP21 LONG-TERM MITIGATION GOAL Temperature goal "well below" 2 C, with efforts to limit to 1.5 C To achieve the temperature goal, Parties aim to reach a peaking of global emissions as soon as possible, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter so as to achieve a balance between emissions and removals by sinks in the second half of this century (i.e. net-zero emissions but these words were not used). Parties are encouraged to develop and communicate national long-term low greenhouse gas development strategies.
Carbon Countdown for Different Levels of Temperature Increase
2, less than 2 and 1.5 Degrees Source: Rogelj et al. (June 2015)
Conclusions Multiple signs of change in the world s energy scene, including China The energy transition is underway, with a strong signal from Paris: governments must ring-fence policies against market swings The IEA s Bridge Scenario indicates the possibility of a peak in emissions, without impacting economic growth With looming energy security & environmental challenges, international cooperation on energy innovation and deployment has never been more vital The Well below 2C or 1.5C represent major challenges /(opportunities?)
The World's Energy Outlook Post COP21 Kamel Ben Naceur International Energy Agency, Paris Brussels, April 19 th, 2016