James Sweet Commercial Director - C4Ci Limited Consultants for Construction Innovation The Opportunity and Entry Requirements for the UK Residential House Building Market 22/23 January
UK Snapshot Main Residential Building Zones O Population @ 63,100,000 (2011) # of Dwellings (Residential Units) @ 26m New Build Residential 2012 @ 115,000 New Build FC 2013 @ 122,000 Current demand @ 263,000 SHORTFALL: C 150,000 UNITS PA next 8 years Current Building Codes UK Building Regs 2010 --- Scottish Building Regs --- Code for Sustainable Homes
UK MARKET OPPORTUNITY
20 Year History of UK House Building There will be a shortfall of 140,000 units from what the current demand for housing is and what is currently built and forecast to be built in the next 3 years
New Build Value A 5billion Market by 2020 Pre Recession Peak Private @ 4.5b Peak Public @ 1.5b Private: 2.75b Public : 0.75b
WHAT THE UK BUILDS
Build Profile 115,000 UNITS 65% TARGET MARKET 35% Higher density accommodation will need to be considered to meet the demand As will fast built single family homes.
Current Timber Frame Market Share Build 25% Brick and block Trad Build Timber Frame During the last 6 years Timber Frame has had between 22% and 25% of the market Expected to be at 28-30% by 2016
HOW THE UK BUILDS
UK Building Techniques - NOW 35-40% Brick& Block I Joists built Into block work or Beam and Block concrete joists
UK Building Techniques - NOW 25% UK BUILD Timber Frame Using I Joist & Open Web Floor Cassettes
UK Building Techniques - NOW 40% UK BUILD CONCRETE & Timber Frame CLT (Future?)
BUT.. Timber Frame used in Apartments will reduce
REGULATIONS & COMPLIANCE
Compliance Meeting the Regulations
Building Regulations October 2010 Part L Energy & Heat Loss - Demands a 25% increase over BR 2006 Quantified by SAP Its important to get this right!
BUILDING PERFROMANCE REQUIREMENTS TO MEET REGULATIONS
10 Basic Fabric Aspects for Code 3 & 4 within 4 or 5 of the 9 Categories 1. Air tightness 5 or under (ideally under 3) 1. Under 3 = MVHR must be installed air and moisture must be managed 2. U Value of 0.14>0.17 Ideally 0.17 CL4 1. And /OR -- Junctions Thermally Modelled to get Y at around 0.03-0.04 3. Window U Value @ about 1.4 or better 4. Efficient boilers and space heating used 5. Efficient energy saving devices and white goods 6. Appropriate water saving devices 7. Designed for Lifetime Homes 8. CoC Compliant in all materials 9. Code 4 may benefit from Solar Thermal Hot Water 10. Code 5 will have to have re-newables 11. Optimum compliance with other 5 categories of the Code
The Wright Recipe Roof U Value down to 0.10 first (cheap and easy to achieve) Floor U Value down to 0.15 next (more expensive) Wall U Value down to about 0.20 (lots of give and take here). Can be anywhere between 0.28 (B'regs max=0.30) and 0.15 or less (0.15 = low end of Passiv House) depending on strategy and level required Changing walls is obviously the most expensive, due to floor area implications, structure, fire etc.. Good Timber Frame comfortably achieves 0.20 to 0.17 and many offer this Closed Panel TF is at or around 0.17 to 0.15 consistently. Windows are a big hitter, and what would have been high spec three years ago is becoming mainstream, windows down to about 1.3 or 1.4. Triple glazing is becoming a top end eco option in retail UPVC and Jewsons Jeld-Wen window partners, so that would be down to 0.7 to 0.8. This was unheard of 3 years ago. Useful trick, watch g-value (solar gains). It is higher on cheaper/higher U-value/hard coat double glazing. The higher U-value losses are partly offset by the extra solar gains Ventilation. There's a q50 cut off at 3.5. Lower than that, you have to put some mechanical/deliberately vented ventilation system, not natural. Many stick at 5 because of masonry difficult going lower than 5, and no chance of needing mech vent/passive vents installed. Timber frame can rock this down to 1.5 with good detailing and site management. That with MVHR can deliver huge savings (15% plus) in SAP and so can move you toward cl 4. MVHR doesn't count for FEE's though Y-values, typically every 0.01 change in y-values is a 1% change in SAP. Cheap as chips on repeats. Getting harder as regs tighten. Need 0.06 typically or better All lights should now be counted as low-e. Solar pv can be sold with feed in tariff subsidy, most builders still nervous. Still expensive, but prices have been halving every 18 months. Compiled by Matthew Wright - C4Ci Building Physicist. Good Timber Frame comfortably achieves 0.20 to 0.17 and many offer this Closed Panel TF is at or around 0.17 to 0.15 consistently.
RECIPE of an Energy Efficient Future Proof Compliant Home Accessible and easy ability to monitor energy use. Passed down to deliver a culture change energy appreciation legacy. Lifetime Homes Occupant Awareness Mitigate Heat loss GAIN WUV-@ 0.17 FUV@ 0.15 RUV@0.10 Windows @ or around U 0.1.3/0.1.4 Thermal Junction Detailing Y@ 0.04 to 0.06 Air Tight @ under 5 AC/ph Design in/out Solar Gain (g Value vs U Value) Manage BALANCE Ventilation AC Per Hour @ 3 to 5 Air Permeability (m 3 /h.m 2 @ 50 Pascals) Appropriate and cost viable renewable technology IF NEEDED OR Gov Incentivised Why Not? Harvest Natural Energy Recycle Waste Heat Hot Grey Water Recovery MVHR Log Burner Heat recovery Low Carbon Technology
The F word during construction New Timber Frame Build Classifications A B1 B2 B3 C = Untreated Open Panel Standard Timber Frame (Not suitable for High Risk Sites) = Modified standard timber frame fire treated = Fire treated with Pre insulated panels = Fire treated pre insulated with Non Combustible Insulation = Non Combustible materials (compartmentalisation) (CLOSED PANEL) Radiant heat Issue : C category build can be closer than A / B category
FIRE + TIMBER FRAME = Opportunity During the next 5 years there will be growing demand For Closed Panel Timber Frame in the UK There are only about 5 local companies out of 150 That offer this. Good quality Closed Panel Timber Frame is being Imported from Germany, Austria or Scandinavia and a Latvian company = OPPORTUNITY FOR LATVIAN COMPANIES THAT OFFER THIS
The F word Impact 1 Before After THE COMMERCIAL ISSUE OF RADIANT HEAT = Less land optimisation for the developer
The F word Impact 2 SOLUTION A move from Open Panel Timber Frame To... Closed Panel Timber Frame or similar
The F word - Impact 3 33% There will most likely be less Multistorey Timber Frame Projects 66% And more Single Family Residential BUT there could be solutions in multi-family suitable for Timber Frame
The shape of things to come more Closed Panel Timber Frame Predictable performance Predictable build cost Predictable build time Predictable energy demand Predictable running costs Increased Speed of build Less call Backs TBC: Lower Overall Build Cost vs Traditional Brick and Block
The Future Panelised Roof Systems SIPS Closed Panel Timber Frame
Future Headlines By 2016 The UK should be building 175,000 units 45% of these will be in the affordable sector. These will need to perform better These will need to be built faster Energy Performance & Speed will favour timber frame Closed panel timber frame will become the dominant solution in this sector. BUT...MORE CAPACITY NEEDED It is forecast that Timber Frame will be around 28% to 30% of the total build as it is estimated to grow at around 2% per annum from 2013.
POSITIVE UK Market Forward Look
HOW
To make it work - you need... Sales Good people who know the market Product Engineer who knows all the regulations and compliance Erectors You can trust Building Designer - Architect That know the planning process Market Promotion of Latvian Companies
you also need... AND THE ABILITY TO FUND THE ESSENTIAL COSTS OF MARKET ENTRY
C4Ci / Sylva / LIAA / WoodHouses Between C4Ci and Sylva we can guide you and help you develop the right partners It may be us or it may be others. LIAA and WOODHOUSE.LV Will help promote Latvian Cos in the UK Ecobuild 5-7 th March
C4Ci Technical Compliance & Software System Engineering Sustainable Building Development Residential Construction Structural Engineering Advanced Timber Engineering Technical Approvals System/Product Testing Sustainable Design /Building Physics CfSH SAP Building Reg Compliance Design CAD CAM Software Geographical Market Strength Europe North America China Global Approvals Low Carbon Engineering Despite being one of the UKs leading Timber Engineering Companies we have worked with all building media including Steel Frame, ICF, Brick and Block, HempCrete, Modcell, SIPS 34
Thank You For Your Attention In Partnership with Timber Frame Design Software Company Log Homes, Closed Panel, SIPS, Timber Frame Post and Beam