Great Basin Weather and Climate: Winter Recap, Current Status, Summer Prospects

Great Basin Weather and Climate: Winter Recap, Current Status, Summer Prospects Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Great Basin Climate Forum Northern Nevada Science Center Desert Research Institute 10 April 2014

What s the Great Basin?? Hydrological & Biological Definitions USFS

Motivation - 1 / 2 (for web reference) Now that winter is fading, how have weather/climate events over the past cool season (or the past year, or however far back you want to go), had an effect on where things now stand? What are the conditions of the resource you deal with? Were there particular events or extended episodes that have exerted an influence, or will be expected to as we head through summer into autumn? What are your concerns, pertaining to climate, as we head into the coming summer and beyond? How adequately can you evaluate your current situation(s)? What information is missing? Are there steps that could be taken to improve the amount, or flow, of data and information? Are there routine monitoring products that would improve your ability to do your job? If information does exist, what would make it more useful, and easier to find, to digest, or to summarize?

Motivation - 2 / 2 (for web reference) What would make it easier to form linkages between weather and climate data and your own information? Conversely, for others who might be interested in what you monitor or do, how can your information be better disseminated? This meeting is not about climate change, but rather climate in its generality -- the everyday monitoring of climate, its quasi-operational components, and its practical implications. However, if slowly changing conditions are a factor, they are certainly suitable topics. The Great Basin Climate Forum is being tried as an experiment, and a learning vehicle for all concerned.

Many products and tools reachable at or through WRCC web pages Another set under way as part of Southwest Climate Science Center We d like your help in making this information more accessible, useful, and usable.

Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard In support of USDA Farm Services Agency and other Drought Activities gbdash.dri.edu

Also Department of Interior Southwest Climate Science Center Climate Monitoring Dashboard A quick glance of recent, current, future conditions, with access to more detail. For Southwest (left) Rest of USA (right) www.wrcc.dri.edu/csc/sw_ckn/monitoring/

Since we last met...

Percent of Average Precipitation Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014

Mean Temperature Departure from Normal Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014

53 Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature Red: Individual Years. Blue: 11-year running mean. 1895-2013. Units: Deg F. Data from NOAA Cooperative Network thru Jan 2014. Annual Mean Temperature ( F ) 52 51 50 49 48 47 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Western Regional Climate Center

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 thru Feb United States Annual Temperature Departure from 1950-1995 Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

Apr 1-8 2014 Apr 1-8 Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)

Oct 1 - Apr 8 Water Year to Date 2013-2014 Oct 1 - Apr 8 Precipitation Percent Temperature Departure (F)

Water Year 2010-11 01 Oct 2010 Thru 30 Sep 2011

Water Year 2013-14 to date 01 Oct 2013 Thru 08 Apr 2014

Nevada Statewide Temperature Annual Water Year Oct-Sep 1895-96 thru 2012-13

Nevada Statewide Temperature Water Year to Date Oct-Feb 1895-96 thru 2013-14

Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep 1895-96 thru 2012-13 Nevada Climate Tracker

Nevada Statewide Precipitation Water Year to Date Oct-Feb 1895-96 thru 2013-14 Nevada Climate Tracker

Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year Oct-Sep 1895-96 thru 2012-13 California Climate Tracker

Sierra Nevada Precipitation Calendar Year to Date Jan-Dec 1895 thru 2013 California Climate Tracker

Sierra Nevada Precipitation Water Year to Date Oct-Mar 1895-96 thru 2013-14 California Climate Tracker

Calendar Year Precipitation Rank Jan-Dec 2013 1896 Thru 2014 Lowest 10 % Record Driest

Oct-Mar Precipitation Rank 1895-96 Thru 2013-14 Lowest 10 % Record Driest

Overall patterns matter. But so does the way in which climate unfolds through day by day. - - - - - A few example sources. Also, new tools coming on WRCC and CSC pages.

365 Day Temperature Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

365 Day precipitation Departures thru 2014 Apr 8

Reno Airport NWS Reno

Elko Airport NWS Elko

Ely Airport NWS Elko

Tonopah Airport NWS Elko

Select: Lamoille area, Monthly values, Temperature 0 C, 9-year running mean. Western Regional Climate Center

Monthly Freezing Level Near Ruby Mountains, Nevada 1948 thru 2011 or 2012 Apr 2014 (thru 6) May 2013 Jun 2013 Jul 2013 Aug 2013 Sep 2013 Oct 2013 Nov 2013 Dec 2013 Jan 2014 Feb 2014 Mar 2014

California Department of Water Resources

Northern Sierra Winter Season Snow Water Content 1982-83 wettest Average Central Sierra 2012-13 2013-14 1976-77 driest Southern Sierra Cal DWR

Central Sierra Snow Lab Winter Comparisons. NRCS Snotel Station 2010-11 Oct-Sep 2011-12 Oct-Sep 2012-13 Oct-Sep 2013-14 Oct-Apr9

Snow Water Content Percent of Average 2014 Apr 9

Water Year Precipitation Since 1 October 2013 Percent of Average 2014 Apr 9

NWS Precipitation Estimate for March 2014 Courtesy Mark Faucette, Reno NWS

March 2014 Precipitation Percent of Normal WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker March 2014 Precipitation Percentile

Oct-Mar 2013-14 Precipitation Percent of Normal WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker Oct-Mar 2013-14 Precipitation Percentile

Courtesy Mark Faucette, Reno NWS

NWS Seasonal Streamflow Volume Forecast Percent of Normal Updated 2014 April 9

What about the Colorado River?

Lake Mead, October 2007 Photo by Ken Dewey

Lake Powell Storage Through Apr 8, 2014 Currently 39 % full (capacity 24.17 MAF) Minimum: 33 % full on April 8, 2005

Lake Powell Elevation Through May 1, 2013 x 1yr Water level on May 1, 2013 was 3574.40 ft, -126 ft below full. Minimum level on April 8, 2005 was 3555 ft, -145 ft below full. Source: www.usbr.gov/uc/water/index.htl

2014 From: Colorado Basin River Forecast Center

Ocean Departures from Average Temperature ( C ) 30 Mar - 5 Apr 2014

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures Updated through 2014 Mar 30 - Apr 5 Climate Prediction Center

Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. Washington Redmond & Koch, 1991, updated. ENSO Arizona Central Sierra

Temperature & Precipitation Official Outlooks One Month 2014 Three Month Apr Temp Apr Precip Apr-May-Jun T Apr-May-Jun P Orange / Red - Higher likelihood of drier than usual Green - Higher likelihood of wetter than usual NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul 2014. Precipitation. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi- Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2014 Apr 9

Six experiments in near-term climate forecasting May-Jul 2014. Temperature. NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble). IMME (International Multi-Model Ensemble). Dynamical Models CFSv2: US Climate Forecasting System version 2 CMC1: Canadian Meteorological Center version 1 CMC2: Canadian Meteorological Center version 2 GFDL: US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NCAR: US National Center for Atmospheric Research NASA: US National Aeronautics and Space Administration NMME: National Multi- Model Ensemble IMME: International Multi-Model Ensemble 2014 Apr 9

Great Basin Weather and Climate Dashboard In support of USDA Farm Services Agency and other Drought Activities gbdash.dri.edu

Snotel How to Improve Great Basin Climate Monitoring??? WeatherCoder III RAWS

Thank You! Mather RAWS Station Great Basin Nat Park

DISCARDS and EXTRAS and ELABORATIONS

Nevada Annual Precipitation Cycle

Oct-Mar Apr-May-June Fraction of Annual Total Precipitation, by Season July-Aug

Through September 2012 El Nino La Nina NOAA ESRL ( CDC ), Wolter and Timlin