Deke Arndt Climate Monitoring Branch Na6onal Clima6c Data Center 25 June 2013

Transcription

1 Deke Arndt Climate Monitoring Branch Na6onal Clima6c Data Center 25 June 2013

2 The National Climatic Data Center The World s Largest Archive of Weather & Climate Data NCDC is located in Asheville, North Carolina A place of active retirement for many types of people and weather data h#p:// 2

3 NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 33

4 Today s Gameplan Apologies and thanks for the way I m here today Preview resources Some generalities about the relationship between weather and climate Some specific relationships within that general scope Re-visit resources NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

5 Some Resources BAMS Annual State of the Climate Report: The National Climate Assessment: Conservative approach (2009) Latest science, but not completely finished (2013) Extreme Weather & Climate Paper: Kunkel et al. (2013). Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 94(4), NCDC s Data (and Climate Monitoring Branch!) NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 5

6 WHAT MY MOM IS SEEING AND READING ABOUT 6

7 CONUS Temperature Class picture 1998: 54.32F 2006: 54.32F 1934: 54.16F 1999: 53.93F 1921: 53.84F 107 other years 1903: 50.76F 1924: 50.66F 1895: 50.50F 1912: 50.35F 1917: 50.17F NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

8 CONUS Temperature Class picture 2012: 55.32F 1998: 54.32F 2006: 54.32F 1934: 54.16F 1999: 53.93F 1921: 53.84F 107 other years 1903: 50.76F 1924: 50.66F 1895: 50.50F 1912: 50.35F 1917: 50.17F NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

9 July 23, 2010: Vivian, SD Image courtesy Aberdeen, SD WFO NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 9

10 Kansas State record Hailstone Photos from National Weather Service, Wichita, KS WFO. Credits: Frank Kotsch and Melissa McCarter 10

11 Big Drought: 2011-present NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

12 Big picture Climate Extremes since 2010 WARMEST COOLEST WETTEST DRIEST Mar 2010: MA NJ RI Apr 2010: IL NJ CT RI ME May 2010: LA Jun 2010: DE LA* MD NC NJ RI VA IA MI Jul 2010: DE RI Aug 2010: FL* LA* Sep 2010: NM MN Oct 2010: FL Dec 2010: FL GA NV UT Apr 2011: IL IN KY NY OH PA WV Jun 2011: LA TX NM Jul 2011: OK TX Aug 2011: AZ CO FL LA NM OK TX NH NJ NY VT Sep 2011: OR PA Mar 2012: CONUS AR CT GA IL IN IA KS KY MI MN MS MO NE NH NJ NY OH OK PA RI SC SD TN VT WV WI WY CO Jun 2012: CO WY FL Jul 2012: CONUS VA Aug 2012: NV NE WA WY Sep 2012: MN MT ND SD Feb 2013: GA Apr 2013: ND IA MI May 2013: IA 1Q 2010: FL ME NH* VT* Spr 2010: CT* MA* ME MI* NH* NJ* NY* RI VT* 2Q 2010: CT DE LA MA ME MD NC NH NJ RI VA Sum 2010: AL DE FL GA MD MS NC NJ RI SC TN VA WI 3Q 2010: FL MA WI 4Q 2010: NV FL CY 2010: NH* RI* ND Spr 2011: IN KY MT NY OH PA VT WA WV WY TX 2Q 2011: OR WA TX IN KY MI OH NM Sum 2011: LA NM OK TX CT NJ TX 3Q 2011: NM TX MD NJ VT Aut 2011: OH PA 4Q 2011: MA NH RI VT CY 2011: CT IN KY NJ NY OH PA 1Q 2012: CONUS CT DE IA IL IN KS KY MA MI MN MO ND NH NJ NY OH OK PA RI SD TN VA VT WI WV CT Spr 2012: CONUS AL AR CO CT DE GA IA IL IN KS KY LA MA MD MI MN MO MS NC NE NH NJ NY OH OK SC SD TN TX VA VT WI WV WY DE 2Q 2012: CO KS AR Sum 2012: CO WY FL NE WY 3Q 2012: NV WY MS MT NE SD Aut 2012: NV CY 2012: CONUS CT DE IL KS MA MO NE NH NJ NM NY OH OK RI SD TX UT VT WY NE WY 1Q 2013: CA Spr 2013: IA 12

13 The hurtful question WELL, IS IT WEATHER, OR IS IT CLIMATE? 13

14 Relationship between weather & climate Literature Review: Stallone et al. (1976) Weather Climate

15 Relationship between weather & climate Literature Review: LeBron et al. ( ) Weather Climate

16 US Climate Extremes summer minimum temperatures NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 16

17 El Niño and La Niña: Effects on the United States Temperature Precipitation Strongest effects are felt in winter months 17

18 The Arctic Oscillation: Effects on Temperatures in the United States Winter Months December, January, February 18

19 Climate and Extreme Weather Kinda impulsive Short attention span Very sensitive to his environment Prone to occasional extreme behavior, given the right set of ingredients Forgets quickly, moves on Let s call this kid weather 19

20 Climate and Extreme Weather 20

21 Climate and Extreme Weather Still impulsive Still responds mostly to his immediate environment Still spends months at a time hanging out with influential friends La Nina and El Nino But seems to be getting into weird situations more often The drivers of his individual days are mostly similar The trajectory of his life has changed 21

22 Climate and Extreme Weather This guy gets blamed for almost everything, but hard to prove any single thing beyond a reasonable doubt Still can t predict the outcome on November 14, 2014 We may try to attribute today s particular behavior to parenting, but very hard to do definitively. But we can surely notice trends There will be changes, even some positives and opportunities People around him will choose to ignore, adapt to, or mitigate these changes 22

23 SO WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT SPECIFIC HAZARD TYPES

24 Current State of Scientific Knowledge NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

25 Extreme Events How we detect, count and measure extreme events has changed, for each type of event, since the mid-20 th Century. Especially true for phenomena we count rather than measure Improved anticipation and detection of small tornadoes NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

26 Extreme Events How we detect, count and measure extreme events has changed, for each type of event, since the mid-20 th Century. Especially true for phenomena we count rather than measure NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

27 Extreme Events Extreme events are borne from a set of ingredients. Tracking the ingredients is very useful! NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

28 Violent local weather: Trends Long-term trends are not consistent because we re so much better at predicting/verifying than before Instability ingredient is likely increasing / will increase Connection to recent super-big hail? Verifying with data is difficult here. Hail data are not really in climate shape Shear ingredient, in the long term: decrease Some long term trends vs. game day issues NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 28

29 Some (not all) ingredients: Warm water Supportive shear profile HURRICANES 29

30 Hurricanes / TCs Still considerable scientific work to be done to determine trends of TC frequency Long-term link between TCs and SSTs is ongoing research Atlantic definitely more active since 1970s More confidence that TCs will become more intense (on average) in certain basins Known: Sea level is rising, this makes the impact of a given TC potentially more destructive NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 30

31 Ingredients: Entrenched warm air blocking patterns keep ridges in place, reinforcing the warmth HEAT WAVES / EXTREME HEAT 31

32 Regional Variability in Temp Changes NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

33 Heat Waves / Extreme Heat Heat waves defined in many different ways, depending on affected population The data are in great shape in the USA The Gist: extreme heat is one of the easy ones. There will more extreme heat 33

34 Changes in Extreme Heat/Cold versus Doubled likelihood of a hot month (red shading) compared to Almost 10% chance of what used to be a 1 in 1000 year event ( ) Northern Hemisphere Land Summer and there already is. Based on Hansen, J. et al.,

35 US Climate Extremes summer minimum temperatures NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 35

36 Number of Days Max Temperature >100 F Summer 2011 Summer 2012 Summer

37 Ingredients for [Extreme] Precipitation: Sufficiently moist air Sufficient lift or rising motion FLOODING / EXTREME PRECIPITATION 37

38 Extreme Precipitation Another one of the easy ones Rule of thumb (works often, not always) for general precipitation in a changing climate: wet places/ seasons/phenomena get wetter; dry places/ seasons/phenomena get drier For the most part, the data are in great shape, and support this NOAA s National Climatic Data Center 38

39 Trends in Flooding and Precipitation River-Flow Trends in Annual Maximum: years ending 2008 Trends in Total Annual Precipitation: Regional similarities between trends of annual precipitation, droughts, and extremes of river flooding Peterson, T. C. et al., 2013.

40 Changes in Heavy Precipitation This graphic asks are the big events are playing a larger role in annual budgets? Percent changes in the annual precipitation falling in the heaviest 1% of all daily events from The far right bar is Changes are compared to the average for all regions except Alaska and Hawaii, which are relative to the average. NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

41 Changes in Heavy Precipitation This graphic asks are the biggest events are getting bigger? Total precip falling on days that exceed the 99 th percentile threshold of daily precipitation during the 30-yr period of , as a percent of the values. NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

42 42 DROUGHT

43 43 U.S. SUMMER HEAT & DROUGHT

44 U.S. Drought of 2012 Illinois From MODIS data. Courtesy of I. Becker-Reshef, E. Vermote, M. Claverie and C. Justice, University of Maryland. Karl et al, 2012 EOS NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

45 Drought Trends (% per century) 1900 to 2011: -0.1% 1930 to 2011: -10.0% 1971 to 2011: +31.6% Widespread persistent drought 1930s (Central and Northern Great Plains, Northwest, Great Lakes) 1950s (Southern Plains, Southwest), 1980s (West, Southeast) First decade of the 21st century (West, Southeast) Peterson, T. C. et al., NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

46 Summary of Extreme Wx and Cx The paradigm is not Weather versus Climate The paradigm is Weather as it relates to Climate Individual episodes of Big Weather are driven by proximal causes ( ingredients ) Climate Change (and don t forget variability!) changes the frequency, intensity and seasonal timing of many of these ingredients NOAA s National Climatic Data Center

47 Annual State of the Climate 23rd annual State of the Climate reports. NCDC is editorial lead Surveys the changing state and the behavior of the physical climate system Now tracks 43 global-scale climate indicators 384 authors from 52 countries 47

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