Item 4.1: Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate Recent climatic events, observing-system changes and report from 17 th Session of AOPC

Transcription

1 SC-XX, 4-7 September 2012 Item 4.1: Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate Recent climatic events, observing-system changes and report from 17 th Session of AOPC Adrian Simmons European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Chair, GCOS/WCRP Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate sponsored by

2 : from double-dip La Niña to El Niño

3 Updated temperature record (CRUTEM4) CRUTEM3 (Brohan et al., 2006) CRUTEM4 (Jones et al., 2012) 2011 not yet available

4 Updated temperature record (CRUTEM4) Differences in 16-year means (1995 to 2010) (1979 to 1994) CRUTEM analyses monthly station data using the station climate as the background ERA analyses synoptic data using a short-range model forecast as the background At common grid boxes, rootmean-square differences between ERA and CRUTEM are: 0.241K for CRUTEM K for CRUTEM4 CRUTEM3 CRUTEM4 ERA-Interim (Dee et al., 2011) (K)

5 Four-month anomalies in temperature at 2m (K) relative to the mean August - November 2011 December March 2012 April - July 2012

6 December March 2012 Four-month anomalies in temperature at 2m (K) relative to the mean

7 Arctic Sea Ice Extent from NSIDC

8 Four-month anomalies in temperature at 2m (K) relative to the mean August - November 2011 December March 2012 April - July 2012

9 Dec-Mar anomalies in temperature at 2m (K) over extratropical northern hemisphere land ERA-Interim relative to CRUTEM3 relative to

10 December - March anomalies over extratropical northern hemisphere land Temperature at 2m (K) Relative humidity at 2m (%) Precipitation rate (mm/day) Volumetric model top-soil-layer water (%) Broad bars: ERA-Interim Narrow bars: CRUTEM4/3, HadCRUH, GPCC

11 April - July anomalies over extratropical northern hemisphere land Temperature at 2m (K) Relative humidity at 2m (%) Precipitation rate (mm/day) Volumetric model top-soil-layer water (%) Broad bars: ERA-Interim Narrow bars: CRUTEM4/3, HadCRUH, GPCC

12 Fire activity Daily dry matter consumption (Tg) Northern Asia (30-75N,60E-170W) 15 From EU FP7 projects MACC and MACC-II, based on MODIS Fire Radiative Power Contributing partners: ECMWF (J. Kaiser) JÜLICH (A. Heil) KCL (M. Wooster) VUA (G. van der Werf) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec North America (30-75N, W) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

13 Recent anomalous temperatures over Greenland

14 Annual anomalies in precipitation (mm/day) for 2011 relative to the mean ERA-Interim uses no rain-gauge data Anomalies in 12-24h forecast precipitation from ERA-Interim are compared with rain-gauge data analyses produced by the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) at Deutscher Wetterdienst GPCC analyses are plotted for all 1 O x1 O grid boxes that contain data from at least one gauge for every month in 2011 for all 1 O x1 O grid boxes for which values are provided by the GPCC Version 6 of the GPCC Full-data Product is used up to 2010; the GPCC Monitoring Product is used for 2011 Standard deviations between ERA-Interim and GPCC Full Data versions for are: Version mm/day Version mm/day Version mm/day

15 Better ocean observation: reducing analysis uncertainty and improving seasonal prediction Reduced spread among a multisystem ensemble of reanalyses of temperature of the upper 300m of tropical oceans for recent years (Xue et al., 2012) Better forecasts of sea-surface temperature for the Nino 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean for recent years (ECMWF System 4)

16 Satellite launches since SC-XIX Megha-Tropiques (France/India) in October Suomi-NPP (USA) in October First image from MSG-3 FY-2F (China) in January GCOM-W1 (Japan) in May MSG-3 (Europe) in July Metop-B (Europe) was delayed, but has launch date this month Fire, smoke and clouds seen by VIIRS on Suomi NPP Colour composite image from AMSR-2 on GCOM-W1 Other forthcoming launches include METEOR-M N2 (Russia) and INSAT-3D (India)

17 But Envisat (Europe) failed in April, just beyond ten years into a lifetime that was planned to be five years Europe s GMES Sentinels await an operational funding stream AOPC-XVII expressed continuing concerns over lack of future provision for limb-sounding and reference measurement from space, and lack of reprocessing of GOES data AOPC-XVII also (along with others) expressed concerns over actual or threatened closures of stations in the GAW and related networks There are also several threats to the radiosonde network Ascertaining the actual situation regarding station closures is difficult

18 From monitoring of GCOS Surface Network by DWD and JMA, as presented to AOPC-XVII

19 From ECMWF s monitoring of receipt of data from GUAN stations

20 Data held at NCDC Number of months for which CLIMAT messages were received in 2011 Number of years of daily surface data held

21 Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) WIGOS meeting on governance and regulation established role for Technical Commissions reviewed GRUAN documentation identified what was required for eventual inclusion in WIGOS regulatory material AOPC-XVII Recommended acceptance of offer from Deutscher Wetterdienst to continue to host the Lead Centre Envisaged a scientific review of GRUAN performance in 2015 Self-certification of sites has commenced existing sites must meet thresholds includes prospective new site at Svalbard Network expansion meeting was held in June Initial sites of GCOS Reference Upper Air Network

22 Other topics referred to AOPC-XVII by SC-XIX, for which response is summarised in Doc 4.1 Action 4: Consideration of ECV data in International Data Centres Action 13: Meeting with Earth Networks Inc. on involvement of the private sector in greenhouse-gas observation Action 20: Support for International Surface Temperature Initiative and consideration of rationale and potential for establishing a global surface reference network Action 21: Future of OOPC/AOPC working group on SST and Sea Ice Action 22: Consideration of cryospheric issues, reporting back on any organisational changes that might be considered to ensure better handling of these and other cross-cutting issues