Convective Weather PDT. Marilyn Wolfson MIT LL and Cindy Mueller NCAR

Convective Weather PDT Marilyn Wolfson MIT LL and Cindy Mueller NCAR

Outline CWPDT Approach Improving 0-2 hr Forecasts 1-hr TCWF 2-hr RCWF AutoNowcaster Initial Work on 2-6 hr Forecasts 2-hr NCWF Combined Heuristic/Numerical Forecasts Future Work

Trends in Aviation Weather Delays Thousands of Delays 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 OPSNET Weather Delays Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 2003 Peak delays summer convective storm season

Convective Weather Forecasting Tactical Forecasts (0-2 hrs) 1 km resolution 5-min update rate Fully automated Deterministic RCWF in CIWS (0-2 hr) Strategic Forecasts (2-6 hrs) 4-10 km resolution 15-120 min update rate Human in the loop Probabilistic CCFP (2, 4, 6 hr) NCWF (2-6 hr) 60-min -Verification Verification Contours Contours Forecast Probability Performance Scores Scores TCWF in ITWS (0-1 hr) NCWF (1 hr) NCEP RUC Model (2,3,4,5,6 hr)

CWPDT Live Demos & Technology Transfer 1998: 1-hr TCWF and NCWF 2002: Sat 2003: RUC 2002: 2-hr RCWF in CIWS 2004: 2-hr NCWF Live Demos TCWF: DFW MCO NYC MEM 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Tech Transfer 1999: G&D Tracker Patent 2001: NCWF Operational 2003: NCWF on ETMS 2004: TCWF in ITWS Licensed to 6 companies Used in TCWF, NCWF 2002: NEXRAD Hi-res VIL 2003: NEXRAD Hi-res Echo Tops

Outline CWPDT Approach Improving 0-2 hr Forecasts 1-hr TCWF 2-hr RCWF AutoNowcaster Initial Work on 2-6 hr Forecasts 2-hr NCWF Combined Heuristic/Numerical Forecasts Future Work

Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Goals Improve safety - Improved wind shear protection - Proactive avoidance svr weather Reduce Delay - Storm motion and forecasts - Adverse winds Reduce controller workload - Shared situational awareness Provide weather information to air traffic automation systems ASR-9 AWOS/ASOS TDWR ITWS Real-time Processor Pilots NEXRAD Microburst Prediction Gust Front Prediction Storm Location & Motion Storm Cell Information Terminal Winds Tornado Controllers LLWAS Lightning Aircraft Airlines -Dispatch -Ramp Tower Supervisors Traffic Managers -TRACON -ARTCC TMU -CWSU User Identified Payoffs Achieving higher effective airport capacity during thunderstorms Anticipating arrival and departure fix closure/reopening Anticipating runway impacts and shifts Optimizing traffic flow in terminal area Improving terminal area merging and sequencing Optimizing airline operations

ITWS Weather Forecast Augmentation Past weather Current weather Technology transfer funding programmed for FY 04 Lincoln interactions with Raytheon underway - algorithm specification - software exhibit - test methodology and data sets Implementation starts 10/04 +60 min Forecast Time loops of past and predicted convective storm positions with real time indication of product accuracy Increases delay reduction benefit by > $ 200 M/year Option to include winter precip forecast

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Air Traffic 09/12/02 1000 UTC 09/13/02 1000 UTC CIWS Domain CIWS 2003 Domain # of aircraft High res echo tops NEXRAD VIL Mosaic Satellite background Forecast Contours Cell Motion/SEP Lightning 0 to 2 hr forecast ASR-9/NEXRAD VIL Mosaic Echo Tops Labels Accuracy Scores NEXRAD VIL Mosaic Storm Growth & Decay

Example of CIWS 2-hr Forecast (9 July 2003 16Z)

Forecast Deficiencies August 3, 2003 RCWF 2-hour Forecast CCFP 2-hour Forecast 19:00 UTC Verification 19:00 UTC Verification C90 TMC Comment: I personally trust the product (RCWF) virtually 100% in a situation where weather moves in from the west, but I don t have the confidence to use it as much during events that develop within the TRACON

Comparison of Perfect vs. Current RCWF Perfect RCWF 2-hr Forecast Current RCWF 2-hr Forecast August 3, 2003 1600 1900 Z

Example of Growth & Decay Trends

Example of Enhanced Weather Classification 6-level VIL Enhanced Weather Classification Prior Weather Classification: Line Small Cell Large Cell Embedded Cells Stratiform

Use of Numerical Models for 0-2 Hr Forecasts Extract salient elements of NWP forecasts for use in the heuristic convective weather forecast systems Scale is important! Spatial and temporal resolution must resolve the elements of interest 3-km MM5 9-km MM5 27-km MM5

Numerical Forecast Decomposition Example 6 Mean Precipitation Intensity 0 10 Percent Coverage > VIP 3 0 Also consider Storm Types, Line Orientation, etc. 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00

Outline CWPDT Approach Improving 0-2 hr Forecasts 1-hr TCWF 2-hr RCWF AutoNowcaster Initial Work on 2-6 hr Forecasts 2-hr NCWF Combined Heuristic/Numerical Forecasts Future Work

ANC Example Initiation Nowcast - July 4, 2003 Radar Reflectivity, Metars, and Boundaries Why do we need a forecast in the loop? Forecasters can see the larger picture. Visible satellite and Boundaries Forecasters ignore bad data points and NWP limitations.

ANC Example Initiation Nowcast - VDRAS Multiple radars domain 600 x 550 km with 5 km resolution Runs on multiprocessor machines. An evaporative cooling term was added to the dry model based on the observed reflectivity field.

ANC Example 1-hr Initiation Nowcast Gray shades show nowcasts for initiation. Colors indicate nowcast based on extrapolation and area trending of pre-existing storms. Blue contour is observation

ANC Example 1-hr Initiation Nowcast Gray shades show nowcasts for initiation. Colors indicate nowcast based on extrapolation and area trending of pre-existing storms. Blue contour is observation

ANC Predictors fields Predictor Fields (red regions show greatest likelihood for storms) RUC Stability Satellite Cumulus Boundary Storm Init RUC Frontal Likelihood IR Cooling VDRAS + Bndry Max W

UW-CIMSS Convective Cloud Mask: GOES/Mask Comparison Red: immature cumulus Horizontal rolls, outflow boundaries, subtle moisture convergence lines Green: mature cumulus Cumulus congestus, altocumulus Blue: Cirrus clouds Anvils, jet induced cirrus

Outline CWPDT Approach Improving 0-2 hr Forecasts 1-hr TCWF 2-hr RCWF AutoNowcaster Initial Work on 2-6 hr Forecasts 2-hr NCWF Combined Heuristic/ Numerical Forecasts Future Work

National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF-2) Operational Research/Test 1 hr Extrapolation Binary yes/no >60% 20 to 60% <20% 1-2 hr probability forecasts Capture regions of growth Trend dissipation

Example NCWF-2 nowcasts 30 km Probability nowcasts based on elliptical filters 4:1 aspect ratio 60 km 120 km >60% 20 to 60% <20%

Example NCWF-2 nowcasts 30 km Probability nowcasts based on elliptical filters 4:1 aspect ratio 60 km 120 km >60% 20 to 60% <20%

Evaluating Forecast Reliability (July 10-11, 2003) Extrapolation, k=30km Extrapolation, k=60km Percent Observed 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % Forecast Percent Observed 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % Forecast 0 min 15 min 30 min 45 min 60 min 75 min 90 min 120 min 180 min A perfectly reliable forecast falls along the black diagonal line. Plots show that spatial filter provides reliable forecast. Further work is needed to better understand and calibrate the probabilities and stratify based on convective organization.

Role of Echo Tops in Air Traffic Planning July 10: 2050 UTC CIWS Echo Tops J80 J60 J80 J60 PHL departures PHL arrivals Storm height nowcast/forecasts provide mission critical information Allowed the continuation of high altitude PHL flow on J60 Over 200 flights remained on schedule from 17:45 03:15 Conservative savings of over $ 1 Million*

25 Storm Height Prediction (RUC Convective Cloud Top Product) RUC Cloud Top Potential Product Verification Max Cloud Top Height Verification 2-hr forecast 28 April 2003 21Z 20 Number of Cases 15 10 5 RUC Convective Cloud Top Potential CIWS Echo Tops Mosaic 0 <-18000-16000 -14000-12000 -10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0-2000 -4000-6000 -8000 Height Difference (m) (Radar Echo Top - RUC Cloud Top Potential) Height Difference (m) (Radar top RUC CCTP) 10000 12000 30 25 14000 16000 18000 RUC Cloud Top Product Potential Verification (Summer Convective Storm Anvils) Convective Anvil Height Verification Number of Cases 20 15 10 5 0 <-18000-16000 -14000-12000 -10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0-2000 -4000-6000 -8000 Height Difference (m) (Radar top RUC CCTP) Height Difference (m) (Radar Echo Top - RUC Cloud Top Potential) 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

Outline CWPDT Approach Improving 0-2 hr Forecasts 1-hr TCWF 2-hr RCWF AutoNowcaster Initial Work on 2-6 hr Forecasts 2-hr NCWF Combined Heuristic/Numerical Forecasts Future Work

CWPDT Live Demos & Technology Transfer 1998: 1-hr TCWF and NCWF 2002: Sat 2003: RUC 2002: 2-hr RCWF in CIWS 2004: 2-hr NCWF Live Demos TCWF: DFW MCO NYC MEM 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Tech Transfer 1999: G&D Tracker Patent 2001: NCWF Operational 2003: NCWF on ETMS 2004: TCWF in ITWS Licensed to 6 companies Used in TCWF, NCWF 2002: NEXRAD Hi-res VIL 2003: NEXRAD Hi-res Echo Tops

CWPDT Forecast Technology Development Live Demos 2004: 2-hr NCWF Corridor Boundary-layer Wind Retrieval Combined 0-6 hr NCWF & RUC Convection Initiation Forecast Coupling with ATM Automation Tools Automated Strategic 2-6 hr Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Tech Transfer NCWF-2 Operational Operational 2-6 hr Forecast 2004: TCWF in ITWS WARP? CIWS? GIWS? Use of 0-2hr forecast for departure planning NWS Forecaster Input?

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