Natural Gas Wholesale Prices at PG&E Citygate as of November 7, 2006

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1 QUARTERLY GAS ISSUES UPDATE December 26 I. Supply Issues Wholesale Natural Gas Prices Above normal temperatures and a lack of hurricane activity caused market prices to decrease in October. By November, some winter weather resulted in a return to prices similar to those seen in August and September. Prices are approximately 22% more than in 24 but 7% less than in 25. Figure 1 below provides historical monthly bid week index prices and projected future natural gas prices at PG&E Citygate. Natural Gas Wholesale Prices at PG&E Citygate as of November 7, 26 $14 $12 $1 $8 $/MMBtu $6 $4 - Implied volatility from at-themoney option prices used to generate ranges - 1 standard deviation - Approx a 3% chance that the actual price will be outside the high and low range Actual High Projected Low $2 $ Jul-3 Jan-3 Jul-4 Jan-4 Jul-7 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Figure 1 Supply Acquisition In June 2, staff began to implement the laddered gas procurement strategy to lock in gas costs for pool customers (customers not eligible for direct access). The laddering strategy was revised in January 24 and presented to the City Council in March 24 [CMR:167:4]. In October 25, the Director of Utilities revised the hedge targets to be equal to the greater of: 1) the current hedge level and 2) the midpoint between the minimum and maximum hedge guideline. This translates to a target of 82% of expected pool load to be hedged for the near 18 months, 58% for the following 9 months, and 35% for the last 9 months in the 36-month horizon. Approximately 82% of the expected pool load is hedged for FY 6-7 with a total expected pool cost of $17.6 million at the PG&E Citygate. The expected cost for the City s entire portfolio (pool customers plus large customers either on the G-3 rate or a contract rate) is $22.1 million. Approximately 72% of the Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 1 of 1

2 expected pool load is hedged for FY 7-8 with an expected pool cost of $21.4 million and a cost of $26.6 million for the entire portfolio. Figures 2 and 3 show the expected pool load for the next 36 months and the status of the laddering strategy. 5, 45, 4, 35, Gas Supply Procurement Program for Pool Customers Monthly Fixed-price Purchase Volumes Compared to Target as of November 7, 26 * Shaded area represents minimum and maximum purchases under laddering strategy ** Forecast revised November 25 Actual Fixed-Price Purchases Fixed-price Purchase Target Expected Pool Customer Load MMBtu/Month 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Dec-6 Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 81% Target 58% Target 35% Target 77% Actual 49% Actual 24% Actual 6% min - 1% 4% min - 75% * 2% min - 5% Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Figure 2 Pool Purchases Compared to Targets 12% Proposed Targets 1% 8% Actual Purchases 6% 4% 2% % Dec-6 Min and Max Purchases as per the Strategy in gray area Feb-7 Apr-7 Jun-7 Aug-7 Oct-7 Dec-7 Feb-8 Apr-8 Jun-8 Figure 3 Aug-8 Oct-8 Dec-8 Feb-9 Apr-9 Jun-9 Aug-9 Oct-9 Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 2 of 1

3 Because of the fixed-price purchases, the City s weighted average cost of gas (WACOG) differs from the monthly market price. The City s estimated WACOG for the pool is $6.64 per MMBtu for FY 6-7, approximately 7% less than the weighted average market price for that same period of approximately $7.15 per MMBtu. This results in a projected savings to pool customers of approximately $1.4 million in FY 6-7. The City s estimated WACOG for the pool is $7.97 per MMBtu for FY 7-8, compared to the current weighted average forward market price of approximately $8.29 per MMBtu, a savings of approximately 4%, resulting in a projected savings to pool customers of approximately $8, in FY 7-8. In the months close to the end of the laddering time horizon, the City s WACOG is closer to the forward market price since purchases were done more recently and because a smaller fraction of the total gas needs have been purchased for this period (as shown in Figure 2). Figure 4 below illustrates the difference between market prices and the City s estimated WACOG. Gas Market Prices vs Pool Purchases (as of 11/7/6) 1. Natural Gas Price ($/MMBtu) Forward Market Price Expected Pool WACOG Fixed-Price Pool Purchases 4. Jun-7 Mar-7 Dec-6 Mar-8 Dec-7 Sep-7 Mar-9 Dec-8 Sep-8 Jun-8 Jun-9 Sep-9 Figure 4 Table 1 below shows the City s commodity-only costs relative to the market and approximate commodity-related savings for each customer class. Table 1 does not include distribution and other costs; it is only a broad indicator of commodity savings. Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 3 of 1

4 Table 1 Customer Savings Relative to Wholesale Market (Commodity only, does not include distribution, reserve movements etc.) FY 2/3 FY 3/4 FY 4/5 FY 5/6 FY 6/7 FY 7/8 FY 8/9 Palo Alto's average gas cost $4.57 $4.39 $5.28 $5.77 $6.64 $7.97 $8.43 Market Cost $4.61 $5.6 $6.27 $8.22 $7.15 $8.29 $8.28 Savings for pool $92,811 $1,595,565 $2,547,941 $6,277,261 $1,361,219 $843,71 -$43,499 Savings for pool 1% 13% 16% 3% 7% 4% -2% Savings per resident $2 $38 $61 $149 $32 $2 -$1 Savings per commercial customer $17 $295 $472 $1,162 $252 $156 -$75 RFP for New Gas Suppliers An RFP for new gas suppliers was issued to expand the number of available suppliers. Proposals were received in July and are being evaluated. An expanded set of master agreements with suppliers is expected to be presented to the Council for approval in early 27. II. Regulatory Issues Gas Accord III The current Gas Accord expires in 27. PG&E called a meeting for interested parties on November 14, 26. III. Operational Measures The attached graphs provide information on operational measures for the first quarter of FY 6-7 (July September 26): Gas System O&M Mainline Leak Repairs Gas System O&M Service Installations Gas Main Leaks By Type of Pipe Gas Meter Exchange Productivity Measurement Gas Main Shutdowns & Customers Affected Unplanned Gas Service Disruptions Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 4 of 1

5 Gas System O&M Mainline Leak Repairs FY 6-7 (through September 26) Restoration Time (Hours) Target: 95% Restoration in 4 Hours or Less % of repairs completed within 4 hours Break Number Total Number of Leaks = 8 Avg. hours to repair = 2.28 Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 5 of 1

6 Number of Days Gas System O&M Service Installations Number of Days From Payment to Installation FY 6-7 Target 38 Days or Less to MSC Installed Number of Service Installations through September 26 1% of services installed within 38 days Total No. of Installations = 2 Avg. Days to Complete = 13.6 Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 6 of 1

7 Gas Main Leaks by Type of Pipe Material Failure Only (FY 6-7 as of September 26) Number of Breaks PE Other Steel ABS 1996/ /99 2/1 22/3 24/5 26/7 Miles of PE: 35.6 (17.7%) Miles of ABS: 43.5 (21.8%) Miles of PVC: 45.5 (24.2%) Miles of BWP: 73.1 (36.4%) Total miles of Main: 27 Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 7 of 1

8 Gas Meter Exchange Productivity Measurement Target vs. Actual Exchange 14 Number of Exchanges Target: 12 Exchanges/month Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 As of September 26 2,78 Residential Gas meters in system Total Exchanges: 8 Avg. per month: 4 Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 8 of 1

9 Gas Main Shutdowns and Customers Affected - FY 6-7 Number of Shutdowns, Planned or Unplanned Total Number of Shutdowns Planned Unplanned Customers Affected Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun Customers Affected Total Customers Affected: 112 Total Shutdowns: (Planned -, Unplanned - 8 ) Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 9 of 1

10 4 Unplanned Gas Service Disruptions by Cause Main Lines Only Number of Breaks Mat. Failure 3rd Party City Crews Jul-6 Aug-6 Sep-6 Oct-6 Nov-6 Dec-6 Jan-7 Feb-7 Mar-7 Apr-7 May-7 Jun-7 Total Material Defect: 3 Total City Crews: 1 Total 3rd Party: 4 Total Disruptions: 8 Item 1: Utilities Quarterly Report Update Attachment B: Gas Page 1 of 1

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