Association of South East Asian Nations Topic C: Codifying ASEAN s Response to Natural Disasters Chair: Zachary Elvove Moderator: Nick Medrano Vice Chair: Eric Anderson Crisis Staffers: Hayley Landman and Jacob Swiatek April 10-13 2014 Elvove 1
Codifying ASEAN s Response to Natural Disasters Introduction Natural disasters have devastated the earth since before humans came to be. Natural disasters are unpredictable as they can strike at any time in almost any place without warning. Furthermore, natural disasters cannot be prevented. The only line of defense against these disasters is adequate preparation. Even when adequately equipped for, a disaster such as a typhoon or tsunami can have devastating effects, as demonstrated by the 2011 Earthquakes and subsequent tsunamis that devastated Japan. Even as a first world and relatively prepared country, Japan suffered crippling losses; 126,631 houses were reported entirely collapsed. 1 In countries such as Thailand and Indonesia however, which are dotted with small coastal towns and fishing villages, similar disasters can wipe out entire coastal populations. South East Asia is one of the parts of earth most prone to natural disasters. Most participating ASEAN nations have large coastal areas that can be affected by hurricanes, typhoons and tsunamis. Flooding is also common, either from tropical rains or as a consequence of separate disasters. Earthquakes and volcanoes also pose a threat to many countries in the area. Because of the large range of disasters that can affect ASEAN nations, it is nearly impossible to have a single set of guidelines to combat every unique disaster. However, formal legislation designed to either prepare for or deal with the consequences of natural disasters would help aid response, relief and recovery times following a natural disaster. Elvove 2
Background The initial burden of a natural disaster falls on the countries impacted. However, the reverberations of a natural disaster result in massive consequences for the greater regional community. These ripple effects are largely trade related, but also include the issue of displaced persons. The most recent disaster, the typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, resulted in nearly 4 million displaced persons 2. Many countries in South East Asia do not alone possess adequate resources to deal with the effects of a natural disaster alone. Many of the parts of South East Asia most vulnerable to natural disasters are also some of the most impoverished, enhancing this issue. ASEAN s only formal response to natural disasters is the ASEAN Emergency Rapid Assessment Team, composed of individuals who are deployed to the location of any natural disaster. ASEAN ERAT was established due to the unique needs of the geographical area. 3 ASEAN-ERAT acts in a disaster to analyze the situation and provide recommendations to the involved governments. Analysis includes information concerning the prevalence of drinking water, civilian health, and food supplies. The functioning of these procedures is extremely important during a time of crisis, as emergency response time is crucial for preserving human life immediately following a natural disaster. ASEAN-ERAT is a crucial body in times of disaster in South East Asia, but the recommendations and procedures of ASEAN-ERAT are not incorporated into legislation, so it is at the country s own discretion whether or not to actually act upon these recommendations. Other international bodies also offer aid in times of crisis. Often large disasters attract international attention and help provided by NGOs. Collaboration between NGOs and the country affected is required in order to benefit the victims of each disaster. Smaller disasters that impact Elvove 3
fewer people will generally not receive this kind of international attention. Usually countries will have the resources required in order to deal with smaller disasters without international aid or the aid of NGOs, but dealing with response times are still of extreme importance. Other organizations such as the UN have similar bodies to ASEAN-ERAT such as the United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination system, which act in times of crisis. UNDAC is an international body that outlines methods to deal with and deploy teams at any disaster emergency site within 12-48 hours 4. The primary objective of UNDAC is to provide optimal levels of coordination, which contributes to increased management effectiveness, a seamless approach to service delivery, and donor confidence resulting in sufficient resources to achieve the desired outcomes, i.e., the least possible amount of human suffering and material damage and a rapid return to normal living conditions and the ongoing progress of development 4. As a UN body, UNDAC works independently of any individual country in the case of a natural disaster. Because of the large range of natural disasters that strike ASEAN countries and because each disaster is unique, any document formalizing how ASEAN nations should respond to a natural disaster that hits a member state will have to leave large amounts of flexibility to allow for any set of circumstances. Figure 1 illustrates statistics on some of the most devastating natural disasters from the last few decades. Notice both the diversity of countries affected by these disasters and that 8/10 of these disasters happened in the greater East Asian geographical area. Elvove 4
Fig. 1. Displaced and killed persons from recent natural disasters 2 Each type of natural disaster brings its own challenges and will need to be managed in an appropriate manner. However, many problems crosscut different types of disasters. These include property damage, displaced persons, risk of death, lack of food and water, and spread of disease. Some of these problems should be addressed immediately to preserve human life, whereas other problems will be dealt with for years following the disaster. What each household should do in preparation for a natural disaster is essentially the same. It is crucial to have food supplies and clean drinking water (3+ days) stored at home in the case of a natural disaster. Following a disaster, water lines are often cut or contaminated, making water unsanitary to drink. In the case of floods, floodwater can be contaminated with sewage leading to the spread of disease. Other common problems include rioting and loss of electricity. Below is information unique to each of the most prevalent natural disasters that pose a risk to South East Asia. Earthquakes Elvove 5
South East Asia lies close to a fault line that runs around Indonesia from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean. This makes earthquakes one of the most common natural disasters in South East Asia. Earthquakes also trigger other disasters depending on their geographical location. Many earthquakes that occur in South East Asia are located in the middle of the ocean, which can cause tsunamis. This pattern of disaster was observed in the 2004 Great Sumatra earthquake and 2011 Japanese earthquake. The following chart shows seismic activity in South East Asia over the last 30 years. Each dot represents an earthquake, where the colors represent the depth of the earthquake below sea level. The major fault line can be clearly seen on this chart as the band where earthquakes have occurred. Fig. 2. Earthquakes in South East Asia in the last 30 years 5 Earthquakes can be catastrophic both directly and indirectly. There are four main hazards associated with earthquakes 6. The first of these is the effect of the ground shaking. When the ground shakes during an earthquake, extreme damage can be done to buildings either from the shaking Elvove 6
itself, or from the effect the shaking has had on the building s foundations. If the ground settles at a different level, the building can physically topple over. Soil liquefaction is another hazard, which occurs when ground water mixes with the soil. When this happens, buildings can physically sink into the ground or topple over. Often the biggest factor to prevent this kind of damage in an earthquake is building sturdy and earthquake resistant buildings. The second hazard is ground displacement, where structures on the fault line can be ripped apart when the ground is moved. The third hazard is flooding, which can occur when the earthquake breaks a dam. When an earthquake occurs underwater, the force of the earthquake can also cause a tsunami, which is one of the biggest threats to South East Asia. Tsunamis will be discussed later. Finally, earthquakes can break gas and power lines leading to fires. This was the case in the Great San Francisco Earthquake in 1906, where much of the city was destroyed in the subsequent fires following the earthquake. These hazards all have devastating consequences, including death. Collapsing buildings form an immediate risk of death after an earthquake. In the case of flooding there is also an immediate risk of drowning. The costs to clean up the damage of the earthquake are also huge, and the process of rebuilding can take many years. In cases of flooding, disease can often spread very quickly to large parts of the population. This is increased when there is a lack of food and clean drinking water. Hurricanes and Typhoons Unlike earthquakes, most hurricanes can be predicted at least 48 hours in advance, giving the population additional time to prepare. The last major typhoon was Typhoon Haiyan, which Elvove 7
devastated the Philippines in November 2013. The Philippines were criticized for their poor response to the typhoon 7 that may have potentially caused thousands of deaths. Hurricanes are caused by low-pressure systems that often form over warm ocean waters. Hurricanes are therefore seasonal, and occur mainly in the summer and early fall when ocean waters are the warmest. 8 Many ASEAN countries lie on or near the equator, and are thus at some level of risk of hurricanes, particularly costal or island ASEAN countries. Hurricanes and typhoons present two main hazards in addition to storm surges, winds and flooding. The intense winds in hurricanes and typhoons can do extreme damage to property, and the high levels of rain can cause flash flooding. Both of these hazards have a wide range of consequences, and are both an immediate danger to human life. During a hurricane or typhoon, it is safest to take refuge inside due to the extreme conditions outside. Buildings are less likely to collapse than in an earthquake, but that is still a very real danger, particularly in less developed areas. The increased amount of rainfall associated with hurricanes and typhoons can also commonly cause flooding. This in turn can lead to drowning, mass damage to property, and spread of diseases. Typically flood waters will become contaminated with sewage and other contaminants leading to unsanitary conditions, increased disease and decreased access to clean drinking water. During floods, many people will have to evacuate their homes seeking refuge elsewhere. Typhoon Haiyan left over one million homes destroyed and over 5 million people displaced 9. Almost all of these displaced persons remained within the Philippines. Tsunamis Tsunamis are huge waves caused by earthquakes out in the ocean. At sea, the tsunamis have little impact on their surroundings, but closer to land the waves combine forming a huge tsunami, Elvove 8
which can be in excess of 100ft. The initial strike of the tsunami can carry many tons of water and can tear down even extremely well built buildings near the coast. The only warning that can be provided before a tsunami is between the initial earthquake and the tsunami hitting land, which is generally only a few hours. Warning systems can be set in place to evacuate areas when there is a tsunami warning. Such systems have been implemented to various degrees around the Indian Ocean. However, these systems were only recently put into place following the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. 10 Not every earthquake in the ocean will necessarily lead to a tsunami, and often in the event of an earthquake, initially it is unsure if there will be a tsunami. This makes mass evacuations harder to control. Measured in human casualties, the worst tsunami ever in recorded human history was the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. The earthquake that triggered this tsunami was approximately 9.2 in the Richter scale, the third largest earthquake ever recorded. 11 The tsunami caused over 283,000 estimated deaths, 12 the majority of these being in Indonesia. Tsunamis have much of the same hazards of hurricanes and typhoons, but with the initial impact being much less expected and much more dangerous. Tsunamis can cause almost immediate flooding and extreme damage to property, but unless there is a risk of a secondary tsunami, aid can be delivered almost immediately. Tsunamis only strike coastal areas that lie on an ocean. The tsunami will hit the first body of land it approaches; this means only some coastal areas are at a high risk of tsunamis. Volcanoes Although perhaps the least common, much of Southeast Asia is at a very real risk of a volcanic eruption. Figure 3 shows the Pacific ring of fire, with Krakatoa labeled. Elvove 9
Fig. 3. The Pacific Ring of Fire 13 This Ring of Fire represents areas that lie on the Pacific fault line, which are prone to volcanoes. Figure 1 shows that seismic activity also coincides with this tectonic activity. Volcanoes have many direct and indirect consequences and are perhaps the most dangerous of any of the mentioned natural disasters. The eruption of Krakatoa in the Krakatoa archipelago of Indonesia in 1883 essentially destroyed the majority of the island. Volcanic eruptions can also go hand in hand with earthquakes, which can also cause tsunamis. The immediate eruption of the volcano is also extremely dangerous, causing tons of often deadly volcanic gasses to be released into the air. Harmful concentrations of volcanic gasses can carry as far as a 10km radius around the eruption site. 14 Lava flows are also extremely dangerous and are hard to counter. These flows can Elvove 10
also devastate a 10km radius. The best way to survive a volcanic eruption is essentially to put as much space between oneself and the volcano. One of the greatest hazards caused by volcanic eruptions are lahars. These are similar to pyroclastic flows, but with the addition of a large volume of water. This can happen from a dam or a Crater Lake breaking, or from rivers or rainfall. Lahars are essentially large quantities of rushing water, which make their way down the volcano, crashing into whatever lies below. The initial impact can damage property from large amounts of debris and water pressure in the lahars. Flooding can also be caused from the lahars. Volcanoes are devastating, but are also relatively rare. Every year there are small typhoons and tropical storms, but hugely threatening volcanic eruptions are not common events. This also means most of the population are extremely unsuspecting. Bloc Positions The problem in question places ASEAN countries on two scales, one measuring the population and the other measuring the risk of a natural disaster. Your country s views on the subject will be influenced largely on these two variables, but other numerous factors will also play in to what your country wishes to accomplish in this question. Countries with High Population Densities Countries with higher populations such as Indonesia and the Philippines have more resources and thus can be expected to play a larger part in any legislation determining how to deal with a natural disaster. However, any disaster affecting your Elvove 11
country will also have a higher cost associated with it, as more people will be directly affected by the disaster, particularly if the disaster hits a densely populated area. As a delegate you will have to determine the amount of aid your country is willing to give and will need to receive in times of crises. Countries with Low Population Densities In contrast to high population countries, countries such as Cambodia or Brunei have fewer resources to deal with natural disasters. However, these countries in general will also require fewer resources to deal with these disasters if they do occur. Because fewer people will be affected by a disaster to one of these countries, any disaster affecting the country will be less likely to attract the large amount of international aid that huge disasters attract. As a smaller country, it is also likely that you will be more affected indirectly by a disaster that hits a more populous country than they will be if you are hit by a natural disaster. High-risk countries Analyze how much risk natural disasters pose to your country. Whether you have been affected by a natural disaster in recent years will also play into your countries ability to currently deal with a natural disaster. If your country is high risk, any legislation providing aid in relief of a natural disaster will affect your country more so than others. However, any legislation forcing preparations or building restrictions will also most likely impact your country more so than that of countries at less risk. Elvove 12
Low-risk countries If your country is not seen to be highly vulnerable to natural disasters, you will have to decide how much your country is willing to give to benefit the countries that are at high risk. You should also strongly consider the indirect impacts of natural disasters on your country. For example, if there is a disaster in a larger neighboring country, how will this impact you economically? Will refugees flee to your country? How will this affect your country s level of tourism? Questions to consider 1. What disasters pose the biggest threat to your country? 2. How well prepared is your country for the onset of a natural disaster? 3. What are your economic and political relationships with the countries most vulnerable to natural disasters? 4. How willing is your government to give up complete control during a natural disaster and how much control should you retain? 5. How much aid is your country willing to provide to others? 6. What parts of your written legislation should be absolutely mandatory and which parts should as strong recommendations? 7. How has your country responded to past natural disasters? Elvove 13
Recommended Sources ASEAN-Emergency Rapid Assessment Team http://www.aseanpostnargiskm.org/knowledge-base/assessments/asean-emergency-rapidassessment-team-erat - Information on ASEAN-Emergency Rapid Assessment Team. This is ASEAN s current primary resource to respond to disasters, which as an ASEAN delegate, you should be familiar with. Overview of UNOCHA http://www.unocha.org/what-we-do/coordination-tools/undac/overview - Information on UNOCHA, which is the UN s equivalent body to ASEAN-ERAT. United States Environmental Protection Agency http://www.epa.gov/naturaldisasters/ - Basic information on how individuals should prepare for a wide range of natural disasters. This website contains further information on a large range of natural disasters, and how to prepare for these disasters. Elvove 14
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12. Tsunami Death Toll Passes 283,000. Sydney Morning Herald 28 Jan. 2005. Sydney Morning Herald. Web. 13 Feb. 2014. (http://www.smh.com.au/news/asia-tsunami/tsunami-death-toll-passes- 283000/2005/01/27/1106415737181.html) 13. Dailywireless.org» Alaskan Volcano Monitored. Web. 13 Feb. 2014. (http://www.dailywireless.org/2009/03/23/alaskan-volcano-monitored/) 14. I don t know where I m a gonna go when the volcano blows Types of volcanic eruptions C.M. Riley, n.d. Web 12 Feb. 2014. http://www.geo.mtu.edu/volcanoes/hazards/primer/ Elvove 16